I can't really disagree with you, but I have some difficulties with the theory of one whale or a very small number of whales and this concept of insider job and even that the exchange is allowing such by choosing to close their eyes to such. 

I do understand that currently Bitstamp is probably the most "credible" of the exchanges in terms of being a price leader with volume and no real solid evidence of manipulation and/or fractional reserves, so it would pay for any whale to understand that s/he has amongst the best of chances to control the market by having a VERY LARGE presence on bitstamp.  I understand that some Bitstamp account holders have asserted that their fiat deposits are sometimes delayed, and surely an insider whale would be extremely advantaged to know the amount of fiat holdings of various accounts and having information concerning the status of their fiat deposits.  But overall that does seem a bit too conspiratorial for my current thinking.

hahahahaha

Would he admit it if it were true?   

It would not be in Stamp's interest to allow it's reputation to become tarnished if it were somehow allowing either fractional reserves or some other kind of manipulative conduct to occur on its exchange.

One of the only legitimate manipulations that I could imagine would be if Stamp were to allow a few big player clients to trade with very low or even non-existent fees (fees lower than their publicized high volume low levels), while other (regular people) traders are subjected to regular scheduled fees (between .1% and .25%). 

I understand that it is already in its business model to allow the lowest of fees to high volume traders, but surely there could be some benefits to Stamp to allow some non-publicized extra perks to some traders who are going to generate a lot of volume.... or just that there are a few "insiders" that receive preferrential treatment due to a relationship with the exchange owner/manager.

Assuming is a bunch of bullshit when you have no facts or logic to support such an assertion and does not make any sense, unless your purpose is merely to spread FUD in the bitcoin spheres.

By the way, it seems that in recent months, Stamp and/or the west does not necessarily follow China on a regular basis or even follow the various Chinese ups and downs; however, if the exchange difference become too great, then it seems that at that point, Stamp's prices will start to follow China.  I don't know if there is a better way of explaining the phenomenon that seems to be taking place in recent times in this apparent reluctancy relationship.

Hahahahaha...

After the many efforts of Stolfi to educate the masses (at least through bitcointalk regarding the potential perils of bitcoin), he's got an ATM opening in his back yard.  After a few more years, given his apparent level of stubborn, maybe he will be the only one in his town in fiat?   hahahaha

One more observation that I would like to make about what is going on with pricing relates again to volume.

If you review the daily volume of the past about 8 months (back to March) on stamp, you will see that the past 12 weeks have had a incredible increase in volume that continues to this day. 

Draw a line at 15,000 coins per day.  You will see that in the past 12 weeks, there were only approximately 4 or 5 days that had trade volumes of less than 15k coins per day.  In comparison, look at the previous 5 months, and you will see that there were less than 15 days that had trade volumes of more than 15k per day.

Accordingly, until the trade volume returns below 15k per day, I sense that we are going to witness continued volatility and movement of prices.  We are in no way a place of equilibrium with the current trading activities and price.

What a goof ball comment.. 

Even if what you are saying  is true  regarding the double digits in 1 year, what would be going on in the shorter term?  sell all now, and wait until next year, or do we just experience a slow decline of btc prices between now and next year? 

Your prediction makes no sense.  What is supposedly going to cause this down trend when in fact it appears that BTC has experienced a trend reversal (at least in the past 10 weeks or so).

Conclusion seems to be that either you are trolling, or you are talking your book because you shorted too early or you are paid to make these kinds of quip bullshit fantasy comments.

The movement of the coins can tell a little bit of a story.

First they are moved into two wallets of 36,000 and 8,431.

Then the 36,000 wallet is moved into 26,000 and 10,000.

So far, based on that little information of coin movement, I'm thinking possibly of two winners, which would be fairly bullish, no? 

But surely that is not the whole coin movement story, yet.

Yes, but none of this is all or nothing, and accordingly, each of us who is attempting to trade, is going to place some bets based on probabilities, and if the news (or apparent direction) changes we are going to tweak our bets in order to better reflect our sense of probabilities.  At this point I really only have a beef with the calling of a $300 to $320 downside in the coming weeks.

Therefore, if we were to bet in $10 increments, then personally, I would place a pretty low probability to anything below $330. 

Currently prices are floating around $370.  Therefore, approximately,  I would place my bets as follows regarding the upcoming weeks.

Below $300 < 3%
Below $310 < 5%
Below $320 < 10%
Below $330 < 15%
Below $340 < 25%
Below $350 < 30%
Below $360 about 50%
Below $365 > 90%

Above $375 > 98%
Above $380 >85%
Above $390 >75%
Above $400 >50%
Above $410 about 50%
Above $420 about 50%
Above $430 about 40%
Above $440 about 40%
Above $450 about 30%

In essence, you see that I consider much more upside potential and probabilities, maybe I am just optimistic or maybe I just get the sense that once the price starts going in the upward direction, then there is more potential for it to snowball, as compared with the downward direction... but what do I know?  I'm just one random wall observer.

It's a process 8up. 

Neither side will just give up, and surely there are also some rogue elements within pushes for either price direction.

Also, your personal target does not signify that it is going to materialize, people have various opinions, and since investment involves people, technical analysis is not always going to capture with certainty when exactly price directions are going to change or if such change in direction is for sure.

For people holding BTC, we do need to prepare for price swings in either direction, and surely it is beginning to seem possible that we are going to be experiencing another test of the $360 resistance level. 

Nonetheless, I do stick by my earlier assertion, though - even though I am fearful that $360 remains in fairly close striking distance of the current price - and really we are not yet seeing any considerable volume level to create a greater buffer away from the $360 striking zone.

Certainly, price could move in either direction, and as a continuing BTC holder, my portfolio would be very happy to experience further upward price movements.

Auctioned bitcoins will be received by later today, and it is possible that the winner could chose to make himself (itself) public starting later today.

Part of my point is more or less exactly the opposite of what you are asserting to be possible.  You are asserting that a bunch of us could affect the direction of the bitcoin price if we could get on the same page and push in the same direction at the same time.

I do not disagree with that assertion as a possibility, but your assertion really seems to be out there in LA LA land. 

I maintain my assertion that you cannot really get a bunch of forum members to agree, even if it were in their own best interest to agree - it's a kind of prisoners dilemma, because every person would continue to act as an individual in his/her own best interest and to tend to deviate from the direction of the others in order to attempt to get an advantage, which in the end would cause the whole proposed coordinated effort to fail.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, because if you want to earn bitcoin or any other kind of compensation through employment of services, there are surely more lucrative kinds of work.

On the other hand, if you are already spending a considerable amount of time reading forum posts and contributing to various forum discussions through posts, then the extra payment can be a decent way to grow a person's BTC portfolio with some small amounts of BTC that did not cost any money (in essence helps in a small way to lower the dollar cost average of the total BTC holdings).

I have no problem with the concept that there is going to be a one more attempt at $350 and even an attempt to go below $350; however, I have some difficulties envisioning the price going below that point - without potentially causing the price to become stagnant in the $300s for some time.

Surely, anything is possible in Bitcoinlandia, but it seems that bitcoin prices are on their way up rather than down, and if anyone is holding out for prices below, $355, then there is likely going to be some luck in that, seeming less probable under the current conditions. 

That is my sense of things; however,

Caveat... never say never in bitcoinlandia.

Actually, I am talking about Stamp's volume, because I still believe that mostly Stamp is the lead indicator regarding the overall BTC market and price direction - but surely Stamp is not the final authority by no means.

Anyhow, Adam, you are correct that volume is coming down, and it is kind of approaching more normal levels - maybe only 2x normal rather than 5-20x.  Accordingly, the volume of the past 24 hours is a bit under 30,000 BTC, and more normal daily levels would be in the 10-15k territory, yet probably a bit lower on weekends, no?  maybe a little under 10K daily volumes on weekends.

It is possible to stabilize in the $350 to $420 territory, but it is very doubtful that such stabilization will occur in the short term.  Simply, there is way too much volume currently, and that demonstrates that there is a bit of a battle going on in this price range.

I think that the volume has to go down before prices will stabilize,  which could mean that prices return to the $350 to $420 price range, but still the direction remains a bit indeterminative.

 I tend to believe that if prices are going to stabilize in the near term (within the next month or two), they will stabilize a bit above $420 rather than below $350.  That's just my hunch based on the overall history and seeming price dynamics, and absent any major developments in the news, whether FUD or not..

Sorry for your loss (since you haven't bought yet, and you seem to be filled with hopium).

I don't know about your logic here.  Surely there are some upside limitations in BTC price movements based on the bears ability to bring us back down from upward price spikes, nonetheless the current price trend remains upward, and surely anywhere between $550 and $5,500 is possible for this calendar year's new high point. 

I have my doubts about breaching into 4 digits this calendar year, but I would not rule it out.  Furthermore, the halfing is a known event, and I am kind of with you about the real material potential impact to have new coin creation to be halfed - however, since halfing remains a known event and it is widely discussed and widely in the minds of bitcoin aficionados, it is likely to begin to have impacts on upward price pressures, well before it actually takes place.

Mostly I agree with your comment about holding on to your coins, because if you sell any, you should be attempting to buy back at reasonable periods soon thereafter - because the price direction seems to remain upward and given the sheer increases in trade volume in the past weeks there are likely to occur some unanticipated spikes in prices that may not return to base points.

Actually I agree, and I believe that there is a lot of merit to this point of view, so if there is some balancing of interest, greater than some rich guy's supposed right to privacy, then I want to hear about it, as well.