Well, considering the past couple of weeks in light of the past couple of months.   

About two weeks ago, we had a considerable drop in BTC price in light of the piling on of FUD surrounding the Mike Hearn article (and other simultaneous exaggerated FUD) that caused a precipitous drop to $352.  Thereafter, I had considered that a fairly decent volume pump passed $410 would bring us into a kind of safe-zone regarding whether we would go below $352 again. 

The pump over $420 from a bit over a week ago did not end up being as long-lasting as I had considered it to be, and so, yep, we came back down to the upper $300s, and we experienced some half-assed further attempts to bring BTC prices below $360, or lower if possible, yet it remains unclear if bears were throwing all of their ammunition or if they may be running out of coins to dump? 

Anyhow, I would not put it passed the bears to be able to come up with some more coins for dumping; however, it is beginning to appear that we are floating in a price territory (mostly $374 to $379) long enough (a couple of days) in order that we could witness another attempt at a break out within the next two days (ending the weekend and maybe awaiting some Monday financial news - stocks were up on Friday, but doesn't mean such uptrend will continue).

 I am fairly certain that we are going to see some price action within the next couple of days.. To me the first bounce by 5% or so could go either way.. almost a toss, and I am thinking that the next bounce of at least 10% from our current price territory, is more favorably on the upside... I will give it a 57% chance for upside and 43% chance for down... but, like everyone who is not a whale, I am formulating my best guestimation.

Yeah. He's all the fuck over the place with his assertions, and likely just making shit up for effects.

Another drama queen.

Yep. You seem to be much more engaged in short-term trading big with your purported stash rather than trading bigger swings, as was my earlier understanding.

 Accordingly seems to be risky and emotional business when you try to trade large amounts by guessing the price direction. Each of us has our style, and your style is likely going to put you in emotional stress again because the short term swings are not as certain as you are making them out to be and you are accordingly appearing to rely up on quite a bit of luck and trading of an amount that is larger than you are comfortable because you want to make a lot.

To me it seems like a gambling style rather than a protection of your principal style, but I suppose that's your comfort- level -?even though you are also seeming to want to get directions from this thread. .

I go by bitstamp and so far in this most recent explosive outburst, we've only seen a low of $363.73, and because of my own logistical issues, I was only able to buy a little more at $368.



I really wasn't expecting any shoot up to $420, yet I know in Bitcoinlandia, a surge of 15% or more in either direction , even within 24-72 hours is not outside of real possibilities.

What happened to $420?


I was kinda looking forward to that.

Most of the time if I buy something with bitcoins, then I will replace them right away; however, if the price goes down then I will wait.

If I am getting paid in bitcoins, then I will only cash them out right away, if I think that the price is going to go down.  


Surely, bitcoin can be volatile, so we need to be careful regarding such price volatility when we are engaging in commerce with bitcoin.

Sometime down the road, we may not need to worry as much when either bitcoin becomes less volatile (that may be 5 years from now or 10 years from now, but it is not stable now), or after it appreciates sufficiently in price that we feel that we are at a profit when we spend some of our bitcoins.

Can you be a bit more specific? 



Yes, the price dropped in the last hours and the last few days and in the last month.. it's a part of volatility, and yes it is traumatic, but it is part of the current bitcoin landscape.. ...

so what's the deal with your particular concern?

Maybe now it can be confirmed that the reverse Adam indicator (RAI) is amongst the most reliable in bitcoinlandia?

BullyJA may have been right, but hopefully you get my point. 

Both of them were asserting exaggerations, but at least Adam's exaggeration was logically possible (even though fairly unlikely). 

I mean in bitcoinlandia you gotta be careful with some of the "never" and "for sure" assertions, even though in normal culture people like to talk like that... but in markets, such as bitcoin prices, a lot of this is probabilities and expectations and timeline...

Anyhow, some people go way overboard in their assertions,  yet I understand the point, as well, that we may get annoyed if everyone posted their view of numbers 99.99999935696124%... blah blah blah... because even logical numbers can be quite exaggerated and confusing and phrased in ways that are deceptive.

There you go... not making sense, again.... 


An example of your exaggeration, and your tendencies towards complete unreasonableness.

Sure adam asserted "never", which means that he is arguing 100%, but for some reason, you seemed to display an irresistible urge to exaggerate and to outdo him by arguing 111%, which everyone should know is impossible.

Maybe you could assert 100%, opposite some variation, but going above 100% is pure nonsense and illogical?  You should be smarter than that, no?


Second, maybe you feel comfortable betting your last satoshi because in essence you may not hold too many bitcoins, contrary to your ongoing assertions to the contrary.

Bring us some beers, too.       

OMG OMG OMG..... .     

OH SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!


Don't say that Adam...

I was cool with everything you were saying until the above post.......


Oh shit, ,,,,,,... oh shit......   



You are going to trigger the reverse Adam indicator.   

I think that is why his new nick should appropriately be BullyJoeAllen... 

BullyJoeAllen:    You are a shit stirrer and an exaggerator, when you do not need to be. 

I don't have any problem with your various claims if you would stop engaging in deceptive exaggerations and bragging and putting others down.  NO need for that in order to make your various points.  It is like you are trying to be so outrageous and seeking attention that you scare others away from participating in any kind of meaninful dialogue because you are such a bully.

Actually, let me say it.... to you bullyjoeallen.. the contents of your various posts speak for themselves with your ongoing pushing of your own agenda, broken record. etc etc...

I am not really saying anything except for asserting that all of the exaggeration about defects in bitcoin are over exaggerated... how the fuck does that make me the one who is spreading any rumors..

I am responding to the multiple bullshit and overhype...

That's one of the things wrong with some of you various FUD spreaders... you frequently like to attempt to reverse the tables with your FUD spreading and suggest that the person calling the bullshit is the one who is actually spreading the FUD... what idiocy in this world of trolls who are disingenuously spreading bullshit... and claiming others are doing the same as them             

This post seems to be OFF TOPIC in at least two degrees of irrelevance....

Sometimes, there could be some connections with the pumpings and dumpings of alts to the BTC market; however, in this instance, we are looking at a chart involving CNY (chinese currency) volume.. how the fuck irrelevant is that to the BTC wall speculation situation?


Some would even argue that there is not so much of a connection regarding the BTC/CNY walls because of the no fees and the bots employed in that market; however, at least BTC/CNY is only one degree of irrelevance, rather than two.

None of us really know the short term direction of the price, and each of us assess probabilities differently.

For example, you, nor9865, may assess the BTC price market as being 60% down, 40% up and .0001% likely of over $500 in the next 3 months.

Maybe Passhaas has a different assessment, that may be somewhat reversed of yours  for example :  10% down, 90% up and 5% likely of over $500 in the next 3 months.

And, there can be all kinds of variations of these prediction probabilities that individuals assess, and then a question continues regarding how do we best reflect our own individual assessment of probabilities into our investment strategies, and accordingly, what is our time line for such and how often do we believe that we have to reallocate our own personal BTC portfolio in order to match our view of probabilities. 

Just because you sold half of your stash doesn't mean that others should come to a similar assessment regarding what the action that they should take at this point or their view about future probabilities should be affected by your action(s).

Probably the more alts you attempt, the more complicated it gets to juggle them around and to get the timing right.  I have never been too excited about alts, and I have not had too much luck with them.  Sometimes, it may be better to just take a loss, if you are having difficuliies keeping up with them, and sometimes they seem so cheap, but then you can still lose a lot of money on them when they go from $1 to $.13...





Once you cash out at a profit, the you can do whatever the fuck you want with those profits to reassess the market.  I had a friend that made the mistake of thinking that she needed to buy lower than her sell point... but that is fucked up thinking (especially since she, like you, had made more than $100 per BTC).  I think now she realizes that her profits were already realized in dollars, and she does not need to be able to increase her BTC.  All she needs to do is to decide how to employ those dollars and whether she believes the price is going up or down... and to decide at what point and how much to reinvest back in when feeling reassured that the downward potential is less likely (and of course, at that point reassessing the amount that she wanted to reinvest because she does not need to use the whole proceeds for reinvestment, and may decide to only reinvest 10% of the proceeds or some other amount that she deems to be prudent).

You are wrong all the time, especially recently since you have been preaching to sell since about $250.

Of course you have come around a few times to admit upward momentum, but you have been denying upward momentum since about $250. Helrow?