Talking of bloody luck, 28+hrs then 10+hrs then 7+hrs and now 6+hrs and counting ... that is 3 blocks in the last 51hrs!
I really needed to know how that pool luck is computed, but now I think I have better things to worry about. Thanks Mr Teal, JT and Mr Ignorant for all the answers (I have laid that to rest).
YOU KNOW WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH YOUR "Mr. IGNORANT' AS WELL. IT DOESN"T SMELL GOOD THERE. PUT IT THAT WAY. Can't read between the lines here ... are you loosing your rag over the Mr Ignorant bit? Hope not since you tagged yourself so (and gave me exclusive rights too)! Still, the luck at slush hasn't changed since my last, now just notching up to 7+hrs! Your language and attitude is the issue. Like the "rag" bit. Yes, I figured you would come back with the "Ignorant" bit as well. I should have known you would anyway from your attitude. Hmmm! Know what, I like this forum for one thing, it has the ignore button and since you detest my attitude you can simply push that button on me. Enough said. Nope, will not do it! I LOVE transparency!! |
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Talking of bloody luck, 28+hrs then 10+hrs then 7+hrs and now 6+hrs and counting ... that is 3 blocks in the last 51hrs!
I really needed to know how that pool luck is computed, but now I think I have better things to worry about. Thanks Mr Teal, JT and Mr Ignorant for all the answers (I have laid that to rest).
YOU KNOW WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH YOUR "Mr. IGNORANT' AS WELL. IT DOESN"T SMELL GOOD THERE. PUT IT THAT WAY. Can't read between the lines here ... are you loosing your rag over the Mr Ignorant bit? Hope not since you tagged yourself so (and gave me exclusive rights too)! Still, the luck at slush hasn't changed since my last, now just notching up to 7+hrs! I remember when the Slush forum was just people whining about luck and asking how to setup miners and various other needs for help... Now its people whining about luck, crying about what others said and general off topic gabbing, and ones needing help get washed away.... It can go back to that with no problems. I simply tried to help. The confusion came when I was told Slush does not "know" our hash rate, when it is plainly displayed in the worker column in "account." I said, If I can see my hash rate, Slush can see my hash rate." AND THAT IS TRUE. Does that mean that is how Slush comes up with the Pool Luck? No. Does it change the fact that Slush does know our "approximate" hash rate? An emphatic NO! |
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Talking of bloody luck, 28+hrs then 10+hrs then 7+hrs and now 6+hrs and counting ... that is 3 blocks in the last 51hrs!
I really needed to know how that pool luck is computed, but now I think I have better things to worry about. Thanks Mr Teal, JT and Mr Ignorant for all the answers (I have laid that to rest).
YOU KNOW WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH YOUR "Mr. IGNORANT' AS WELL. IT DOESN"T SMELL GOOD THERE. PUT IT THAT WAY. Can't read between the lines here ... are you loosing your rag over the Mr Ignorant bit? Hope not since you tagged yourself so (and gave me exclusive rights too)! Still, the luck at slush hasn't changed since my last, now just notching up to 7+hrs! Your language and attitude is the issue. Like the "rag" bit. Yes, I figured you would come back with the "Ignorant" bit as well. I should have known you would anyway from your attitude. You can stick my "rag" down your throat instead of the trash. |
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Talking of bloody luck, 28+hrs then 10+hrs then 7+hrs and now 6+hrs and counting ... that is 3 blocks in the last 51hrs!
I really needed to know how that pool luck is computed, but now I think I have better things to worry about. Thanks Mr Teal, JT and Mr Ignorant for all the answers (I have laid that to rest).
YOU KNOW WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH YOUR "Mr. IGNORANT' AS WELL. IT DOESN"T SMELL GOOD THERE. PUT IT THAT WAY. |
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May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!
If you want a quick check, you can look at Eligius. http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/blocks.phpThe luck number listed for each block is just Difficulty/shares You can also look at Organ of Corti's blog. http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/"Luck" is the usual difficulty 1 equivalent shares per round / mining difficulty, or (equivalently) accepted shares / expected shares. Right, I shall cease asking difficult questions ..... that's it. Pekatete asked a simple question no need for you to Once again start a fuss. Yes im adding my 2 cents. JT Whatever... I think you just enjoy trying to criticize someone you don't like for whatever reason. So, you get onto me and not him as well? Okay... I'm chilling (as in "done with this") see ya |
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EDIT: Like I said, I asked how to compute luck and all I got was how to get the luck. We have all the numbers that we believe make up the calculation of luck, but NOT the formula (well, just a link to a page to plug the numbers in!).
No, that is the formula. It's just not a difficult one. The luck value that pools use is just the number of shares they expect a block to take (IE, the difficulty), divided by the number of shares it actually took. If you want to do it over some random time interval, it's just the number of blocks you found in that time, times the difficulty, divided by the total shares. It gets a little more difficult when the difficulty changes, but you just divided it into two separate terms at that point. Agreed, but I'm telling you, my numbers based on hash rate to determine luck were not that far off at all. If you look at the 1 Day Luck percentage at the end of each day [based on the number of blocks found], you will see its percentage is very close to the number I indicated based on hash rate. And yes, stale shares, duplicates, rejects, etc... would play a roll in determining "luck" if not factored in. I can see the logic in determining Pool Luck based on Shares contributed to the pool. Still, what I was doing as a "Newbie" to determine this on my own wasn't too far off. |
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I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...
I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL
Also, IF you know, why bother asking?
I didn't ask, pekatete did. Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to. Then we agree that "hash rate" is very important in determining shares, which in turn determines the percentage for pool luck? There is no computation program that I know of that will determine the length of time it would take to find a block based on number of shares. All of them I know of determine this based on hash rate... PERIOD! They do say, "can very greatly depending on luck." I say it can also vary greatly depending on the "quality" of the miners mining. If they are over clocked to the point of having one stale after another, HW too high, etc... one's ability to find a block "solo" is diminished; and one's ability to build up sufficient amount of shares in a pool is diminished. I'm not sure what you're getting at here. The average number of difficulty1 shares needed to find a block is equal to the difficulty. IE, on average you currently need ~35B diff1 shares. Your mining software infact lists your hashrate based on the number of accepted shares. Download the source of cgminer and look at how it actually goes about finding that hashrate number it displays. How do they not have access to it, if THEY are the one's giving MINE to me?
LOOK at the "header" above the box for your workers in "account." Then tell me what it says...
It says, "Total average hash rate in last 60 minutes."
It's a derived number. Slush takes your number of shares in the last 60 minutes, divides it by 3600 to get the number of shares/sec, multiplies it by 2^32, and displays that as your hashrate. I don't doubt that one bit. The link I provided for Mining profitability even mentions this. I'm still saying in order for us to come up with how LUCK is determined, Hash rate is a MAJOR contributor in its calculation. Without hash rate, their can be no shares. Whether the pool determines luck based solely on hash rate or solely on shares remains to be seen. They haven't told us in "News." |
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May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!
EDIT: I just hit upon a plan, I'll rephrase my question: How do I find out what a pool's luck is?
WOW, REALLY? LOL I've gone to several sites with similar computation programs and they all give very similar, if not the same exact answer. The following thread will tell you the same about answering difficulty with hash rate computations. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7531.0Also, if you go back to the link I suggested for Bitcoin mining profitability, he explains how he comes up with it. You ask a question, I provide you with info, YET you want take the time to look at it Mr. Calculus. |
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May I just say, I am of that generation where we used to do calculus on paper and were banned (in exams) from using calculators. in the same breath, the link to the site does not reveal how they compute their numbers, simply plug in a few numbers and you have a result ... ! As such, I still am at a loss as to how pool luck is calcullated!
If you want a quick check, you can look at Eligius. http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/blocks.phpThe luck number listed for each block is just Difficulty/shares You can also look at Organ of Corti's blog. http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/"Luck" is the usual difficulty 1 equivalent shares per round / mining difficulty, or (equivalently) accepted shares / expected shares. Right, I shall cease asking difficult questions ..... that's it. Whatever... I think you just enjoy trying to criticize someone you don't like for whatever reason. |
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I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...
I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL
Also, IF you know, why bother asking?
I didn't ask, pekatete did. Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to. How do they not have access to it, if THEY are the one's giving MINE to me? LOOK at the "header" above the box for your workers in "account." Then tell me what it says... It says, "Total average hash rate in last 60 minutes." |
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I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc...
I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL
Also, IF you know, why bother asking?
I didn't ask, pekatete did. Slush doesn't count rejects or duplicates in his numbers. Again, Slush doesn't know a user's hashrate, just their number of accepted shares. Up until a month or two ago he didn't even provide a hashrate estimation on his website, just the number of shares for the current round. Yes your hashrate will dictate the number of shares you have, but that is not something Slush has access to. Then we agree that "hash rate" is very important in determining shares, which in turn determines the percentage for pool luck? There is no computation program that I know of that will determine the length of time it would take to find a block based on number of shares. All of them I know of determine this based on hash rate... PERIOD! They do say, "can very greatly depending on luck." I say it can also vary greatly depending on the "quality" of the miners mining. If they are over clocked to the point of having one stale after another, HW too high, etc... one's ability to find a block "solo" is diminished; and one's ability to build up sufficient amount of shares in a pool is diminished. |
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I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards. However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past. The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it. They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers. FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day. At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck). To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period. Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck. WHY? Cause we can't find 60% of a block. We can only find a "whole" block. You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck. That would be a rare occasion indeed. Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average. The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear. You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate. No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor. The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool." The following answer was given for 8000 Th/s (8 Ph/s): Difficulty 35,002,482,026.00 Mining Factor 100 0.00 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts Average generation time for a block (solo) 5 hours, 13 minutes (can vary greatly depending on your luck)Hardware break even 1 day Net profit first time frame 3890503.64 USD You're looking at it backwards. Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is. All he can see is the number of shares he has received, and then he infers the hashrate from that. He doesn't need to do that though other than as a convenience to users that he just added in the last couple months. All he needs to calculate luck is the number of shares, the number of blocks found, and the difficulty. I'm telling you "hash rate" will affect how many "shares" you have. One can "over clock" their miners to the point of having all kinds of rejects, stales, duplicates, etc... and their shares will increase "in spite of the duplicates, rejects, stales, etc... I gave you my calculations on what I "THINK" is the way they compute it. I report, you decide. LOL Also, IF you know, why bother asking? Also, you said, "Slush has no way of knowing what the hashrate pointed at his pool is." Really?  What the heck is that you are seeing after being on the pool for 60 Minutes IF it is not hash rate? If I can see my hash rate, THEY can certainly see my own hash rate. IF they can see MY hash rate, THEY can certainly see everyone else's! WHY SO OBJECTIVE? Can you not keep an open mind? Do you have everything figured out? I think you need to take that damn T-Shirt off! EVERY POOL LETS YOU KNOW WHAT THEIR HASH RATE IS. LOOK:    All of these are proof they KNOW the hash rate. |
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tl;dr - Luck or hashrate at other pools makes no difference in the short term. The only thing that matters is the current hashrate and difficulty.
Do you care to throw some light on how Slush computes their pool luck then? Surely, network hash-rate is a factor (not mathematically speaking, but could also be!). I know I'm not the one the question was pointed towards. However, I did mention this in several other posts in the past. The hash rate has EVERYTHING to do with it. They would have to have a program that keeps up with the hourly total pool hash rate in the same way they have a program that computes the hourly hash rate of individual workers. FIRST, lets say slush averaged 8 PH/s TOTAL hash rate from 00:01am at the beginning of the day till 24:00pm at the end of the day. At present difficulty [35,002,482,026], that is approximately 5 hours, 13 minutes time for each block found (can vary greatly depending on our luck). To be at 100% Luck for THAT 24 HOUR DAY [while averaging 8 PH/s for the entire day] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.21666667 hours] = 4.60063897 blocks for it to be 100% LUCK for THAT 24 hour period. Hence, you hardly ever see exactly 100% for 1 day luck. WHY? Cause we can't find 60% of a block. We can only find a "whole" block. You might see 100% for 7 day or 1 month, but not 1 day luck. That would be a rare occasion indeed. Slush's "Luck" percentage for 1 day can also vary every hour IF they are computing this based on an "hourly" hash rate average. The source I use to determine how many blocks on average that can be found for a "given" amount of hash rate is located at the following address: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ IF it does not load when you first navigate there, refresh the page and it should appear. You enter in the difficulty and the hash rate. No need to enter in the other data unless you are interested in your own profitability factor. The only thing we are concerned with is "How long it takes the pool to find a block on average for a given amount of hash rate of the pool." The following answer was given for 8000 Th/s (8 Ph/s): Difficulty 35,002,482,026.00 Mining Factor 100 0.00 USD/24h@100MHash/s as in these charts Average generation time for a block (solo) 5 hours, 13 minutes (can vary greatly depending on your luck)Hardware break even 1 day Net profit first time frame 3890503.64 USD You can come up with these figures for ANY pool you desire by first entering in an approximate average hash rate of the pool. Then, if you like, you can determine the average payout for your personal hash rate at that pool by staying at the pool for 24 hours. Once you know your payout based on shares [considering if the hash rate is the same average as your previous calculation], you can multiply the average pay out by the average number of blocks found for each day. Then multiply that answer by 30 days and you have an average payout for a month for that pool. Example: [Slush] 4.60063897 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06682295 BTC average each day. That would be 2.00468841 BTC in 30 days (1 month). |
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Of course not, just like I can't guarantee with 100% certainty that Slush wasn't fiddling with his new quantum computer module the week before when we were at 200% luck for the week.
Shifting the goalposts to be about professionalism aside, the original observation remains valid. Every time there's a long block pages of posts pop up talking about how something must be broken, or Slush is playing games, or whatnot. It won't change of course, I imagine this conversation will die down soon until the next time we get a 99%+ block, at which point new people will be talking about how Slush broke the pool or is stealing everyone's money.
For those who have seen it all and got the t-shirt, I suppose it would be in order to simply ignore those "annoying" posts accussing Slush of everything under the sun for the sake of their sanity. Barring which, be prepared to batten down for the storm if you talk down to the ignorants ... LOL You can call me Mr. Ignorance from now own, pekatete. Sure, it could very well be a string of bad luck at the moment. I understand perfectly well about GHash adding more of their own miners, as well as "UNKNOWNS" adding more hashing power, which in turn would affect Slush's ability to find more blocks by decreasing Slush's percentage of over all hashing power from lets say 6% to 5 % of the total BTC mining network. It could very well be a string of bad luck. Forgive me IF my comment about Slush's back end possibly being down "maybe" [we'll never know]. I'll stop making comments like those.With that aside, I still think I made the correct decision to mine elsewhere, as I'm BETTING THE LUCK elsewhere will be a little better than at Slush today. When I play Texas No Limit Holdem, I PLAY FOR LUCK, so to speak. That is pretty much the same thing I'm doing when I mine. However, I'm not a hopper, in the sense of using a program to quickly switch from one pool to another. It's like I wake up each day and wonder, "Which pool am I putting my bets on TODAY to be lucky." By the way, it won't be long before I have a "T-Shirt" as well. So, bare with me. LOL |
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Settle down. The posts in question are like these ones. It's more than a luck.
a 4 second round a couple of days ago which is invalid.
then one more invalid round right before that 28+ hours of thing...
It looks to more than a luck.
Somebody may be playing a game...
I'm becoming paranoid...
I got to thinking about this website change and other changes they are doing at Slush. I was NOT willing to risk my electricity consumption on a "what if." I decided to go to another pool yesterday at noon till they get things worked out. I'm seriously wondering if it's something they are doing on the backend or SOMETHING that is affecting this. It could be just bad luck. Not sure.
Since I'm "not sure" I'm staying away till changes are implemented with no more interruptions. It ended up being a good decision to move yesterday. Just lucky I presume. Who knows?
I will come back to 80% Slush and 20% others after Slush gets things ironed out. I still believe it's something they are doing on the backend. Could be bad luck. According to the odds of a block at our hashing power and present difficulty, we should find a block every 5 hours and 43 minutes [Approximately]. So, either something went wrong on the backend or we are having TERRIBLE bad luck.
I'm still not coming over till I know things are worked out.
till what is worked out. luck is luck u cant work it. this long block just equaled the day we got 8+ since we should only be doing 4.5 a day May be... Let's just say until this luck thing works out. ONE valid block in the last 41 hours and 15 minutes and counting. this is officially the longest drought i have witnessed. i remember a 34 hour block, but i don't recall 41+ and only ONE valid block
Agreed! Something is fishy and I don't like it!!! That's why I've been on the Dark Side the last 36 hours. Every time there's a long block, similar posts go up about how something must be broken in the back end. There's never a corresponding "We solved 3 blocks in the last 40 minutes, something fishy is going on." post though. 99.9 CDF blocks are an expected part of mining, but you could probably find similar comments every time one shows up. Can you say, WITH 100% CERTAINTY, that no maintenance is being done on the back end [WITHOUT TELLING US] which would keep us from finding a block? I don't think you can. That is what I meant about "something fishy..." When was the last time "NEWS" was posted on the Slush home page? Why do we have to navigate to Facebook to get any kind of news? WHY can't they at least post something in the "NEWS" section telling us to navigate to Facebook for updates. I just see lack of professionalism. I'm calling it like I see it. If others want to criticize me for that, so be it. A company gets better at serving its customers by listening to its customers. I know Slush is an intelligent individual. I'm not saying he should respond to all posts here or on Facebook for that matter. All I'm saying is keep people informed on the actual website that hosts their product SO AS TO BUILD UP TRUST. Don't make periodic posts on another website that does not even host your product (Facebook). I cannot stand Facebook. They will allow a post of a baby kitten being tortured with fire in a bucket and say it is appropriate. However, they deem it inappropriate to post even one single pic of a firearm. Facebook is a disgrace to the human race! So, again, what I mean by "fishy" is LACK OF PROFESSIONALISM in running a business. Customer is number 1 IF one intends on keeping customers. That's all I'm saying. IF all of this is being done for free, then it's all the more reason NOT to depend on TRUE TRANSPARENCY. Again, that's my opinion! If I'm to be criticized for my opinion, so be it. |
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you find a block you are pretty damn lucky ... More people means more resources means the 'luck' is shared among contributors and more consistent. This scales too.
Your perception of luck or what it means is conceptually flawed. There is no such thing as shared luck in the context of bitcoin mining, let alone that you can scale that luck. My understanding of pool luck is that it is a simple percentage calculation based on hashing power ( EDIT: that of a pool over the entire network END EDIT:) as a factor of blocks released by the bitcoin algorithm. Sometimes, weights are factored into that calcullation based on bands of hashing power (of a pool), but in my opinion, this is simply eye candy (aka smoothing). If that is what you refer to as "scalable luck" then you are confusing one thing for the other. Exactly!!!! I honestly believe someone needs to take a BEAM out of their own eye before they even think to take out "what they think" is a splinter out of someone else's eye. I learned a long time ago that many times their is a "pride before a fall." I also learned to have the honor to admit if I'm wrong and work to make amends if achievable. |
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... extrapolate that variation over the number of miners/pools we currently have and it's only natural the variation is going to be exacerbated.
As far as pool luck is concerned, thanks for agreeing with the ignorant mob (or for that matter counting yourself amongst the ignorant mob) It becomes repetitive. Simple as that. .... The issue is not with what people are (or aren't) astonished about but rather that they keep flogging a dead horse.
What is the harm in that? The bloody thing is dead anyways! LOL |
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If, as you insist, pool luck is just that, then surely it can not be demonstrated to be otherwise. Unfortunately for you, it has, and that by the ignorant mob you so detest.
On the contrary. For the sake of the argument envisage yourself as the sole miner of bitcoins and ask yourself whether you would find a block bang on every 10 minutes or if there would be a variation. That's Solo. Now extrapolate that variation over the number of miners/pools we currently have and it's only natural the variation is going to be exacerbated.
So, if someone is astonished at how un-lucky (or vice versa) a pool is, so what ... !?
It becomes repetitive. Simple as that. Just the same as the numerous posts on slush's payout times become repetitive. The issue is not with what people are (or aren't) astonished about but rather that they keep flogging a dead horse. I want you to show me in the following post I have made and repeated on here several times HOW THE HECK I SAID WHEN A BLOCK WILL BE FOUND AND HOW MANY BLOCKS WOULD BE FOUND... DID I OR DID I NOT SAY A CERTAIN NUMBER WOULD HAVE TO BE FOUND """""TO BE 100% LUCK FOR THE WEEK?""""" Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. [Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day. That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month). GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. EDIT: CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS [GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day. That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month). ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well. Such as NMC and others. It's a bonus all the way. Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC. Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet. STOP YOUR CLAIMS THAT HAVE LACK OF MERIT! STOP BARING FALSE WITNESS AS WELL!!! |
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Have you noticed how nobody complains when we have a run of good luck, but when it goes tits-up for a couple of days all the accusations and conspiracy theories start coming out of the woodwork? Happens every time - so does the return to normal performance, if there is such a thing.
If somebody complained of good luck, that would be strange; on the other hand, it is perfectly normal to complain of bad luck (and that in any field of life, not just bitcoin pool luck!) Now if you care to take some time and explain to me what exactly your point was, that would be nice (lucky if you like). Though not worded the best, his point was that every time a run of bad luck comes along people - particularly those new to mining - will spout off as though it's unusual and crap on about it being 'fishy' among other things, while only a few weeks prior thinking they have the expertise to predict when a block will be found based off a few prior days when luck was good. I agree with him. Ignorance is no excuse under the law, nor should it be on here with several hundred previous pages of which maybe 5-10% are people utterly astonished that luck can go down as well as up. Explain to me how the following is "ignorance": Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. [Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day. That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month). GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. EDIT: CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS [GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day. That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month). ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well. Such as NMC and others. It's a bonus all the way. Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC. Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet. Do you see ANYWHERE in this where I made SO CALL PREDICTIONS? HELL NO YOU DON'T Also, if you have ANY sense, you would agree that these calculations have merit. If you have any HONOR, you would also admit you were WRONG to claim I "predicted" when and how many blocks would be found by any pool. Judge not according to the appearance, but judge righteous judgement. Also, do not bare FALSE witness. |
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Have you noticed how nobody complains when we have a run of good luck, but when it goes tits-up for a couple of days all the accusations and conspiracy theories start coming out of the woodwork? Happens every time - so does the return to normal performance, if there is such a thing.
If somebody complained of good luck, that would be strange; on the other hand, it is perfectly normal to complain of bad luck (and that in any field of life, not just bitcoin pool luck!) Now if you care to take some time and explain to me what exactly your point was, that would be nice (lucky if you like). Though not worded the best, his point was that every time a run of bad luck comes along people - particularly those new to mining - will spout off as though it's unusual and crap on about it being 'fishy' among other things, while only a few weeks prior thinking they have the expertise to predict when a block will be found based off a few prior days when luck was good. I agree with him. Ignorance is no excuse under the law, nor should it be on here with several hundred previous pages of which maybe 5-10% are people utterly astonished that luck can go down as well as up. Dude, don't talk like that. I mentioned more than I could care to count "Depending on luck." Don't be nor talk in such condescending tones, PLEASE. I could have responding to you another way that would accomplish nothing but disrespectful communications between the two of us and waste both of our time. Did I or did I not explain the numbers in order for two particular pools (Slush and GHash) needed to achieve 100% LUCK? I do believe the word "LUCK" was mentioned several times in my posts. I did not DARE say they WILL find that many blocks. So, don't put words in my mouth and try to make a mockery of me. Yes, I may be a newbie, but that doesn't mean I cannot use data to determine a pools "100 % LUCK FACTOR." I want to call you so many names now for misrepresenting me that I find it hard to hold back. However, I'm going to hold back to avoid taking away from our discussion. Just don't be rude and make proclamations that have no merit. I have many posts that said how many blocks a pool would need to find in order to achieve 100% LUCK and NEVER PREDICTED HOW MANY BLOCKS THEY ACTUALLY WILL FIND. Here is an example: Slush is averaging right at 8 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 5 hours 10 minutes time for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 8 PH/s] we would need to find [24 hours divided by 5.16666667 hours] = 4.64516129 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. [Slush] 4.64516129 blocks x .01452471 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.06746962 BTC average each day. That would be 2.02408860 BTC in 30 days (1 month). GHash is averaging right at 60 PH/s TOTAL hashing power. At present difficulty, that is approximately 41 minutes 21 seconds for each block found. To be at 100% Luck for the week [while maintaining a consistent 60 PH/s] they would need to find [24 hours divided by .68775 hours] = 34.8964013 blocks each day during that week. Again, that's to maintain 100% Luck. EDIT: CORRECTION MADE TO GHASH ON AVERAGE SHARES, WHICH CHANGES ALL NUMBERS [GHash] 34.8964013 blocks x .00193933 average shares with 4.67 TH/s = 0.066767564 BTC average each day. That would be 2.03026914 BTC in 30 days (1 month). ALSO, one also gets bonus alt coins as well. Such as NMC and others. It's a bonus all the way. Not sure how well those coins are doing and their value related to BTC. Haven't really looked into THAT part of it deep enough yet. So, chill out please... |
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