haha yes it must be. if i miss the 's' off applies it does become apple  |
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If I have the formulas right, then it means you can't get zhoutongued. Even if the price goes to $0. Your unrealised profit and loss is greater than the max possible loss you could incur. Of course this only apple for long positions. Short positions are always at risk of zhoutonguing! |
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What's interesting on the weekly scale is that MACD has only begun a cross and RSI hasn't reached overbought territory yet. With respect to RSI, I guess what's sort of odd about it is that on the same daily chart the RSI corresponds nicely to the weekly chart for the price increase beginning in January 2011 and the one beginning in April 2011. In those two cases both the weekly and daily charts show RSI overbought during the same timeframe. Or, they at least show RSI hitting 70 at very close to the same time (you can actually see that the weekly chart led by a tiny bit). But right now, though the daily chart says we've been overbought since December 19th, the weekly chart has yet move out of the 50s. I don't know what that means, if anything.  Your daily RSI means that relative to the last 14 days we are overbought. Your weekly one means relative to the last 14 weeks we are neutral. Your daily one covers the period starting with the christmas rally, your weekly one covers the market bottom. So the recent rally makes things seem overbought, the market bottom makes it seem like we are about square again. IME RSI doesn't consistently have momentum. I've found can just as easily reverse as it can continue in a given direction. I don't think it gives a clear signal. Daily says there should be a selloff, weekly says we could go either way. I think the biggest influencing factor would be how much leverage/margin there is in each direction on bitcoinica. I doubt we are going to find that out any time soon (at least not before it becomes apparent from the price action!). |
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otoh - if you sold 28 at that price your base price goes to ~$0.029
any more and it goes negative! (don't ask me, I'm just the messenger!)
sell 242 at that price and your base price will be -$1424.41
)
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Daily RSI paints a different picture. I think we have to correct first, originally I thought we would retest $2.20, the strength of the rally and the amount of money that seems to have appeared makes me think we may go no lower than 3, I think there is a lot of bullish interest - any downward spike will be met by serious upward pressure as people will just see it as a buying opportunity (I certainly will!)
Agree that if we break upwards though, it will blow the roof off probably straight up to $12.
I'm still not buying more at this price. I'll just hold what I have and wait for better entry. Right now its too risky to bet either way imho. Roll on options at gox!!!
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You should buy back in before your profit evaporates.
The idea is to keep it open so that when we spike back up, I can sell again, then buy out when we spike down again, lather rinse repeat. first of all congrats on what looks to have been a tremendous short from $18. i agree with notme. if u believe we're headed back up towards $18, why not close the 1 BTC short now, then re short @ $18? in fact, if you had closed this 1 BTC short @ $2, you would have made an additional profits by this point. He dint short at $18 (was bitcoinica open then?), he shorted at a much lower price and the closed out all but 1BTC The way bitcoinica works is it recalculates the base price when you add or reduce a position. e.g. Short 2BTC at $10, bid drops to $5 bitcoinica shows: Base price $10 Buy 1BTC @ $5 bitcoinica shows: Base Price $15 |
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Thin volume, thin order book, thought I would give the price a nudge see if it woke up bitcoinica  rather surprised anyone noticed! I know as soon as I hit the sack it will all kick off and I'll miss it again! Ho hum. Night all! |
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Why not apply your strategy to historical market data? You can run a full simulation of how well your idea would have performed.
It's random though! It would be different each time  |
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I've seen that asterisk blinking on the sell side of bitcoinica an awful lot today. That makes me think a lot of people are selling, or that a lot of people are short...  wedge forming.... could go either way if it's up then it will be one hell of a squeeze! |
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Plus I have sand in my vagina because I decided to go long at $7.15 last night  I have a message for my fellow bulls, who have been zhoutonged or hurt by this correction. The correction is actually an enormously bullish sign. Here, look at the charts. ...snip... The sand is because i shorted too early when it was 6.25, when it broke to 7.2 I made an emotional decision and flipped my position. I've found this to be one of the best indicators around. In the cold light of day today I released that I had been total rash. I've spent most of the day reviewing this and made the tough decision to close again for another loss. You see bullish signs on those charts, I am long term bullish, I'm holding a stash long for the long term, but my play money is for trading and right now this is the daily chart I am looking at...  Failing to break out of bollinger, and a lot of room to the downside. RSI: Overbought They give me the sense that this rally is over (for now), and a correction is on the cards. Money flow OBV and PVT all peaky but a closer look at the hourly:  Failed attempt to break above 7.20 OBV and PVT failed to make new highs Thats just my opinion, as unpopular is it might be right now! I'm about 33% long BTC, the rest is in USD and I have a bunch of buy orders all the way back down to $2. (I've even sent some loving zhou's way, I just kind a like that site however much it screws me, or rather, I screw myself on it!) I tell you this, not because I think it will have any effect (I think the market is big enough now, that these forums do not have an effect - if indeed they ever did!) or because I think anyone should do anything based on my view, but so that I can say 'I told you so' if I'm right Good luck all! |
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the asterisk on the sell side means people can't sell because zhou is out of BTC not USD. If anything this is preventing/slowing a price collapse. Plus I have sand in my vagina because I decided to go long at $7.15 last night |
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when?
I think he means now, zhoutongs asterisk eye is winking again... |
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Yeah it took me ages to find this info.
I was able to cancel my BTC through the site and just do a normal withdrawal to my mtgox wallet.
For USD I just had to sit it out.
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Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh
If you're wrong, you just missed the opportunity of a lifetime. If you're right, well... meh. It will go up again. its the former. i lived thru the Spring minute by minute and this is exactly the same, except this time we go further. So everyone keeps saying... *everyone* - that seems a bit too bullish for me. My long term holdings remain intact (lucky enough to acquire those at ~$1) Not quite as many as I'd like, I was aiming to add to them but I ended up with all US Dollars with the whole move from bitcoinica, once I'd got it all back on gox things were starting to look a bit price at $5 so i just set my bids and wait. Shame none of them got filled I can't really buy now, If I miss out on profits in a rally from 6-10 I've missed out on a 66% opportunity. A bit disappointing. If I can pick up some coin around $2-$3 and then take it to $10, that would be far more exciting! This is just my play money we are talking about here after all |
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i think it looks a bit more imposing when you look at at this way...  we should have tested 1 on the way down imho, but all the serious volume didn't start until the first bubble was up around $5-$10, that means there is an awful lot of people who think that $2 is a bargain. So maybe ~$2 is resistance now. It's getting pretty hard to stick to my conviction that we are going down again before we go back up, I'm dying to jump on board this train!!! Patience and discipline, just gotta keep telling myself.... and if i'm wrong well... meh |
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$1BN: 7th September 2013 Gold: 7th September 2016 My winnings go here: 1G4PGAL4i7cZSrUbm42AkScPLpSx84hV8c |
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..snip..
In the long term, we have a deflationary, uncounterfeitable "commodency", so ultimately it can only go up.
Agree with what you've said, part from I would say ultimately should be probably |
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