Well you cut out the rest of my post, and my overall sentiment was that hopefully you do not end up selling too much BTC too soon with your seeming inclination to want to try to play the wave.  Maybe that kind of an approach will work and allow you to not end up with less BTC than what you could have had, otherwise... if that is what you care about versus if you just want to get some dollars that may well not end up holding their value very well.

A big ironic how they were looking for the guy for a bit of time before locating him.. presumptively finding him in parts.

The mere fact that some people do not know how to utilize debt or they fuck up their lives because of debt should not mean that each of us should not figure out ways that we can become empowered from the use of debt, whether it is being able to improve our skills and abilities by improving ourselves through something like a college education or  our ability to get ourselves into a suitable house instead of having to wait for 20-30 years to save up to buy it with cash - in the event that we might not know how to invest our cash properly.


That is a decently good example.  Sure it is not guaranteed that the guy buying the petrol is going to be able to profit from his own ability to stock up extra petrol in advance, but like you mentioned it is worth taking the chance since there is a bit of a history that helps to support a quite likely scenario that the loan is likely going to be able to largely pay for itself and also deliver extra profits to him, and there are likely other examples of loans that can be entered into that are similar to that kind of a scenario, even though sometimes the results are not as tested or as guaranteed, but frequently the expected values of various scenarios can be calculated in advance in order to attempt to weigh the likelihood of profits versus the likelihood of losses and still justify the loan if the likelihood of profits significantly outweigh the losses (including calculating various costs associated with the loan), even if there may well end up being some circumstances in which the loan ends up costing more than the profits that had been made from the loan and there could even be some scenarios in which the losses are quite high, but maybe not as likely to happen but such less likely scenarios should also be considered in terms of their weighing into the calculation regarding whether to get the loan or not.

Maybe it is true that pushups will not directly help your pot belly - yet I think that pushups are still good for strengthening our core, and surely doing pushups could also motivate you to supplement your pushups with other kinds of exercises, and perhaps on the whole your being active will help to reduce your pot belly... or maybe the pot belly will not appear as big if your upper body is in better shape.. surely when you have a pot belly, and if you are doing full pushups, then that extra weight is adding to the amount of weight that you need to push up each time, even if it is in the middle of your body rather than the top of your body.

By the way, I would rather NOT do pushups in front of anyone, but sometimes we cannot escape other people being around.

And, your total amount of pushups is pretty good, so if you are not very old, you may well start to get a lot of improvements from your pushups in a short amount of time, especially since the bodies of younger people should be able to build muscle better than older people....

Even with my own body, it is taking quite a long time have some seeming ladder type improvements... .and there were a couple of weeks that I was stuck at 50 pushups per set, and now, it seems that I am able to do 60 per set.. but I feel that I am kind of stuck at 60 per set.. but I am not going to get worried or try to rush things, and if I keep doing around 60 per set, it may well start to be the case that I am able to do more.  I still have my most pushups ever at 69 which was about a week ago.. .. .. I am pretty sure that I must be building some muscle with all of this because even though it hurts while I am doing the pushups, I don't really have the lingering pain like I had in the first couple of months, and so now I am on day 93.. which truly is a pretty good streak to have that many days of pushups and even my own personal record of the specifics of it... but it still is not easy to see the body changes, which might be a sign that I had let some of my muscle atrophy over the years, so maybe my body might be gaining more muscle like I might have had that level of muscle a few years ago, but surely the muscle that I am building and/or strengthening is more concentrated in my upper body since that is the main part that the pushups focus upon...and yeah, getting in some lunges from time to time too...  not every day, but sufficiently enough to create some habit for me and some incentive to do them sometimes... which is better than not doing them at all, which was my earlier situation.


Maybe he can beat them up in order to teach them a lesson?  especially since he is stronger now.

Sure, there could be some value in terms of having other kinds of resources upon which you can draw, yet I doubt that takes away from the benefits that you likely would get by creating and maintaining your own systems, and yeah, if there might be some cases in which you care able to get resources from friends, family or in other ways, then those can also be helpful to attempt to utilize whatever you can to your own advantage... or even to avoid dipping into reserves and/or emergency funds if you have those other ways of making your ends meet.


If you have identified your various issues, you can work on building your various financial strength simultaneously to getting started in bitcoin, so there is no need to wait until you get all things perfect prior to getting started, so if you know that you already have $10 that you can buy, then buy right away and figure out your other details so that maybe you can later start to become more aggressive in your BTC accumulation approach, including making sure that you can invest 4-10 years or longer with whatever you are putting into bitcoin.. and no problem with also starting out slowly as you are otherwise putting the other aspects of your finances (and psychology) in order.


Exactly.  Improper cashflow management may well lead someone to be continuously having emergencies, and surely there can be situations that might seem to be an emergency to some people but if you are managing your cashflow with emergency funds and reserves, it would be likely that the most major situations that arise would end up being taken from the guy's reserves, and then the reserves would end up getting built back up.. and it could take bit of time to rebuild the reserves depending on how severe of a situation had taken place. which still might not rise to the level of an emergency. which could be getting hit by a bus or in some other way losing your income and/or increasing your expenses for a period time that hopefully ends up being temporary rather than permanent.

Yeah, but how could we give too many shits about shitcoins in this thread.  The explanation that involves some kind of a need to learn about shitcoins seems a bit problematic to me.


There is a lot of mixing of shitcoin ideas in that article, so there are some good ideas in the article, but it surely is mixed up with shitcoin ideas, and it cannot even describe bitcoin maximalism without pumping some shitcoin ideas in there.

Of course, I acknowledge that shitcoins exist and are going to continue to exist, but I still would consider a lot of needs to learn about and to mostly focus on bitcoin without getting overly distracted into shitcoins, including vague references to crypto as if bitcoin was just one of he options instead of the one that all of the others is copying and correlated to.

So maybe if the article had been written from a bitcoin first perspective and acknowledge shitcoins as largely copy cats and/or affinity scams upon bitcoin, then they might have been able to describe the categories a bit better.

So that article does not really address very well some of my earlier points in regards to how various bitcoiners might have come into bitcoin in terms of their fitting into some level of early adopter and how their portfolio and personal learning may have developed and evolved through the time that they have been into bitcoin and perhaps some of them distracted (or lured) into shitcoins.. .and no I don't even consider shitcoins to be a complete waste of time, since there may well be some ways in which the various options to transact in different ways could be helpful in regards to bitcoin's freedom and self-sovereignty aspect, which surely freedom and self-sovereignty seem to be under attack in many ways in recent times.


Yeah.. there are likely subcomponents and sometimes quite a bit of detail within the categories, so there may even be better ways of describing some of them and pointing out some of the important sub factors within the factors.  I just like to use it as an easy go to reference, but sometimes we might talk about one or two of the factors and how someone might try to figure out where they might be in regards to one or another of the factors, including how any of the factors can change in time, but still there could be some consistency within some of them over time too, which truly should mean that a person is going back to reassessing his factors from time to time and maybe making material changes to his approach to bitcoin based on some of the changes of some of the factors (and yeah, he might even end up being wrong in terms of his assessment of the factors and his chosen approach towards addressing such factors.


Things happen in life, and there are degrees in which we have to make adjustments if our cashflows dry up or our expenses go up, and so there can be varying ways to consider whether prior practices were successful.  I consider that to be a fairly successful period of my life, even though I was going through tight cashflow times, and yeah there could be ways to second-guess how I dealt with it and if I could have had dealt with it better, but overall I feel pretty good about that period, especially since I did not sell any bitcoin and I continued to buy, even though there were periods in which I was not able to buy (or did not feel that I could buy based on my own then balancing efforts).

I do think that some of my thoughts have evolved through the years, and also my ways of describing things, so there were likely periods in which I already knew about various practices, but I likely organized them in my head in different ways than I do these days.  Even before i got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had already been investing (including using DCA techniques) for more than 20 years, and yeah frequently I consider myself to be and to have had been pretty conservative, even with my starting to get into BTC in late 2013 and the way that I ended up choosing to start my investment was based on a 6 month budget that I established for myself and then divided that 6-month budget into 26 weekly parts, so it is was like a weekly allowance that I gave myself.. that I ended up extending an additional 6 months after the 1st six months had run itself.

It can be difficult to say which changes would be made, since we deal with situations from our current knowledge set and we try to learn along the way, and frequently there are going to be mistakes that might be known in the moment but other mistakes might not be clear until later down the road, but sometimes even the mistakes have levels of materiality, so that there might not necessarily be a change that needs to be made since we cannot necessarily know BTC's short-term price direction. .

and we could even end up getting our long-term predictions wrong, while at the same time, there can end up coming a decent amount of satisfaction that long term predictions end up playing out even more bullish than anticipated (in some ways).. since if I had said to myself that I would like my bitcoin returns to at least return on average similar to the returns of my other investments (which was largely 6% on average), but I was willing to accept a lower performance level, and surely if I might even say that in the first few years bitcoin was either negative or barely reaching 6% per year performance after 2.5 years and maybe even getting into its 3rd year, but after that the performance ended up making up for the short-falls of the earlier years... so maybe even now I might say, bitcoin has returned me around 75% per year on average over the last 10.5-ish years, and yeah there are guys who are claiming that it doubled every year or more, but I am not sure if those are necessarily representative results in regards to what happens to a large number of normies in the real world.


You seem to be misreading what happened.  I already had an emergency fund and reserves, which is part of the reason I never had to sell any BTC.. even though I had several months in which I was not able to buy BTC.. and I suppose part of the reason that I had concluded that it was not necessary to continue buying BTC is because I had already been buying a lot of BTC during all of 2014, and in late 2014 (prior to my emergency situation), I had already come to the conclusion that I had already accumulated enough BTC, and perhaps if I had ONLY learned about BTC, and I had not already spent a year accumulating BTC, I might have considered that situation differently, but I can ONLY deal with the facts of my situation. and really I think that I considered any additional BTC that I had accumulated during 2015 to be a kind of overaccumulation, especially since by late 2014, I had considered that I had invested about 10% of the value of my quasi-liquid investment fund into bitcoin, and so even though when I started in BTC I had not realized that I was going to have a 10% target, I had come to that conclusion in late 2014, and by the time we got to mid-to-late 2015, I was getting close to around 13.5% of the value of my quasi-liquid investment fund into BTC, so at that point, I considered that I had gone from my then established target accumulation level into a state of overaccumulation.


Sure there might have been some people who came into BTC in late 2014 and even in 2015 who acquired their BTC at that price level, but I have my doubts, and anyone buying throughout 2014 (such as myself) already had conviction in regards to bitcoin, so yeah sure, you can Monday morning quarter-back the situation, and say that you should have waited. You should have saved your money for the dip that everyone knew was coming, and frequently those kinds of claims are a bunch of bullshit, and you can see the same thing happened in 2022.. The BTC price dropped from $69k down to $15,479, and we did not see folks backing up their trucks and buying BTC between $16k and $19k.. yeah sure there were some who still had money to buy, but a lot of folks did not have a lot of money left by the time that the BTC price got down to those levels, and so they used their floats and their reserves, and surely you should know that you don't use emergency funds for buying BTC.. you use emergency funds to live and to avoid having to sell your BTC in order to live.


You cannot invest into anything if you don't have discretionary income.  So whether you know what it is called or not, your income needs to exceed your expenses in order for you to be able to invest into anything whether bitcoin or anything else.. otherwise, you are gambling if you are using money that you need for your expenses to invest..

And so with my own situation, I came into bitcoin thinking that I was going to hold whatever I bought for at least a year, but most likely at least 2 years, yet these days I think that many of us know more about bitcoin, and any new investor should be able to commit to investing 4 years or longer.. of course, people are going to be scared and even some of them want to try to play the wave that is likely less than 4 years, and so I consider those folks to be traders and/or gamblers rather than investing, even if some of them might end up changing their minds and decide to stay longer.. just like I continued to stay longer rather than ever making any radical moves to sell large portions of my holdings.. which also could be considered a bit of controversial stance - since we know that in 2018, the correction was in the ballpark of 85%, so that can cause regrets from a lot of folks in terms of not having had sold much or even any BTC during the earlier price rise.


You got your numbers wrong.. Bitcoin went to nearly $65k in early 2021 and it went to $69k in late 2021, so yeah there were a lot of people expecting BTC prices to go higher in 2021 and perhaps even into 2022, but instead we got right around a 77% correction down to $15,479... , and yeah many folks did not expect bitcoin to go below the 200-WMA, and that was then around $22k, and so the BTC price ended up going around 35% below the 200-WMA.. which was more than expected, and even some folks expecting the BTC price to go lower after that.

Yeah sure, anything can happen and we should be financially and psychologically prepared for a variety of scenarios, but it still remains a good idea to make sure that you are also prepared for UP.. No problem preparing for down, but the problem that an overwhelming majority of folks have is their failure/refusal to adequately prepare for up... So there are ways that you can prepare for both, and most times, I don't spend a lot of time focusing on preparing for down, even though surely there are needs to make such preparations, but instead I prefer to make sure people are prepared for up.. which continues to be the overwhelming majority of the problem that an overwhelming majority of the population has, and perhaps even some of the members of this forum... failure/refusal to adequately/sufficiently prepare for up. and also fucking around with trading (or shitcoins).. which also takes away from adququate/sufficient preparations for up.


Use the 200 WMA for your largely measure of bottom and stop fucking around thinking about outrageously bearish scenarios.  Yeah sure they can happen, and yeah sure you should be prepared, but it is more important to be preparing for up rather than thinking about downity scenarios that may or may not happen....including continuing to keep the 200-WMA as your approximation of bottom BTC prices.. even though sometimes it might get broken.. but it tends to go up and there is no reason to conclude that it is not going to continue to go up. .even though surely it is not guaranteed, as you suggested, but if you ever want to potentially advantage by having a stake in bitcoin, and even a lighter stake if you are so obsessed with bitcoin going to zero scenarios, then you have to be buying BTC and making sure that you continue to have some.. but hey you do what you like if you fail refuse to buy bitcoin and/or to keep a sufficient and/or adequate stash of it.


You also don't seem to know what is an emergency fund.  An emergency fund would be built up and set aside and it would be the value of something like 3 months or more of your expenses... so once you build it up you do not need to touch it.  The part that you seem to be referring to having extra float in your monthly cashflow is not an emergency fund. that is merely extra float.. so if you want to take some of that extra float and designate it towards an emergency fund, or towards reserves or towards something that you are saving up for, then no problem with that, it gets transferred out of your monthly float and into some kind of reserves and/or an emergency fund.

So if someone had an income and 80% is expenses, then they only have 20% that can be used for investing and/or building up reserves and/or an emergency fund (that is also called discretionary income since it is income beyond their expenses).. .Many times it is difficult for anyone to even be in a situation in which they have 10% to 20% or more of their income as discretionary.. unless they are living with their parents and their parents is supporting most if not all of their expenses. .or if they happen to have a job that is relatively high paying as compared to their expenses in life.


You are correct.  Those categories may well serve as distractions in terms of really helping to understand what is bitcoin or how to be an investor into bitcoin, since there are several ways that the category descriptions result in making it appear as if trading or getting involved in shitcoins is some kind of a positive attribute in terms of being a more sophisticated "crypto" person... so yeah, there may be a bit of a distracting element in the framing of those categories, even if there still might be a few good ideas in there, there surely is a lot of crap ideas within those category descriptions, too.


Huh???   We do not have enough facts to know.  Surely when a person lives with their parents, they may well be living in an artificial world in which their parents are paying for most of their expenses.. so there might be more liberty to invest more than someone else would be able to invest.  So yeah sometimes people living with their parents are not contributing to expenses, but others might have obligations to contribute to household expenses.  I am not going to automatically assume that he has expenses that restricts his ability to invest higher amounts into bitcoin.

Another thing might be that his parents might have certain expectations that he buys things with the money that they give him, so they might not like the idea that he is investing into bitcoin with money that they are expecting to be used for his living expenses.. and so they might decide to reduce the amount they give if he were to tell them that he is investing with part of it... We don't have enough facts to know those things either, since some parents would appreciate any kid who might be considering various ways to invest or to be frugal, but they might not necessarily agree with bitcoin as an investment choice.. but then that could also vary too in terms of their knowledge or at least that maybe they should be grateful if he is not investing into shitcoins, to the extent that they know the difference.


From my own perspective, that is not a very good example in order to need to dip into your emergency fund, since you should have cash float and reserves for those kinds of things to the extent that there is going to be some expectations that there are going to be varying glitches in your cashflow and expenses from time.  Another thing is that if you are keeping larger amounts in your emergency fund, then you might well be taping into it more, but really that is what differentiates an actual emergency fund from a float and/or reserve funds, since floats and reserve funds would be something in which you would regularly be dipping into for various reasons, and sometimes you might end up depleting your float and your reserves and have to dip into your emergency fund, which surely should not end up happening hardly ever.. and maybe you make some mistakes or whatever, but most of the times you should be keeping enough of a float and/or reserves, so that you never end up having to touch your actual emergency funds absent and actual emergency, but yeah, if you run out of float and reserves then it is better to use your emergency fund than to use your bitcoin at a time that would not be of your own choosing, and if you end up having to use up two weeks of your emergency fund (for something that may or may not have had been reasonably foreseeable), then it could take you a month or two to build it back up.. depending on other aspects of your financial situation.


The same principles apply whether you are poor or you are rich.  You need to figure out ways to maintain an emergency fund, reserves and float, and you are the one that needs to figure out the size of  those things.

Of course, if you add additional income then your discretionary income would end up going up, but having another job does not take away the need for establishing good financial practices, even though having a second source (or multiple sources) of income does likely help to alleviate some of of the pressures if one of your income sources dries up then you would have back up sources of income.. but you still need an emergency fund, reserves and float... especially if you want to lessen the likelihood that you would need to tap into your bitcoin investment at a time that is other than your completely own choosing (not that you get forced into it based on you lack of adequate preparations).

In regards to bitcoin, I personally believe that one of the most important things is to get started right away.

Yes, a lot of folks have screed up personal budgets and bad financial management, but they can build their financial management while they are investing into bitcoin..

So for example if a person has an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month, and most of the time receives around $2,400, and he has expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then that is around $400 in disposable income, but surely the disposable income varies with the income and with the expenses that vary.

If that person is new to investing and maybe does not have much of any emergency fund, reserves or float - maybe perhaps 2-4 weeks of extra cash that kind of floats, he may want to minimally get his emergency funds in cash up to $6,600 to cover 3 months of his worst case expenses, but he can still start to invest into bitcoin before getting all of his finances in order. 

Let's say that he also has debt that he is paying off over the next 4 years. and maybe that debt is $60 per month (and is charging 6% interest annualized), and maybe the total amount due for the debt is going to have a balloon payment of $3k additional at the end of 4 years. .so yeah the guy has a variety of dilemmas and demands on his cashflow, so maybe he would like to buy $100 per week of bitcoin, but he sees that his finances are not really in a good spot, so maybe he can only invest $25 to $50 per week into bitcoin while he is sorting out his finances and getting himself into a better position... and yeah, 6% per year for the loan is not outrageously high, but it is not cheap either.. so their could be some dilemma in regards to whether the loan should be paid off first or if there might be some value to just let the loan continue to run and to invest into bitcoin.


That is a good point Marvelockg.  Sometimes we might have to make some uncomfortable adjustments, and those adjustments would likely have priorities in regards to figuring out how dire our situation might get when our expenses go up and our income does not keep up, so maybe we even have to increase the size of our emergency fund because maybe we had been running an emergency fund that covers 3 months of our expenses, and all of a sudden it only covers 2 months, and so we might not only have the problem of having to cover increasing expenses for those particular crunch months, we likely would also have to spend some of our resources to build up our emergency fund to a higher level in order to account for the higher expenses, even if we might believe that inflation might come down, but we should still be attempting to prudently prepare ourselves for worser situations, since we would not want to have to dip into either our emergency funds or our bitcoin investment, so sometimes the sacrifice might be cutting off our DCA or lessening it to a very low amount.. .. which surely the various kinds of ways of prioritizing our cuts is not always going to be clear, yet the longer that we engage in these kinds of practices and balances, the better we should get at making those kinds of balancing determinations.


As you mention, surely there can still be ways to figure out how to increase our income or to cut our expenses, but like you suggested, thos kinds of things may well not be feasible to accomplish in the short run, so we have to deal with the situation that we have right in front of us at that particular moment in terms of prioritizing which part of our funds is next to be used.. and if we might have to discontinue investing into BTC at some point that we are depleting our other funds. .and maybe when we get back into building back our emergency fund, we can also get back into DCA, but we still might have to DCA at a lower rate based on needs to prioritize, especially when there could be signs that our cash cushion is not large enough in the event that more emergencies come, such as if we lose our job or we suffer some kind of a health event.

Why are we going to presume that the mere fact that something is secret that it all of a sudden is being used mostly by criminals rather than for legitimate personal privacy reasons?  We would likely need more data if we are going to start to make those kinds of presumptions, and surely I understand some of the ideas of the slippery slope that also would include increase in trade volume that allows larger and larger players to come into the product.. so surely there are ongoingly going to be some challenges when the non-traceable services increase in their capacities.


How many millions did your friend of a friend sell / buy?

We should face the fact that there are  a lot of debt systems in the world in the past 20-50 years, and many of them building up more and more, and there are ways to take advantage of such systems without abusing them or putting yourself in a bad situation - so debt can be used in a variety of smart ways in order to enhance cashflow or even build up a credit score for potential future use (Tmoonz mentioned) - that could also be thought of as a kind of insurance policy.

Frequently with debt things could be purchased at an earlier time that otherwise might not be affordable - including if you might have to wait 10 or more years to save up and you might lose some of the value of time, whether that is buying a home that you might never be able to buy if you had to save up in dollars that are losing their value.. .. of course, these days we have bitcoin, which is likely (at least historically) has been a way better way to be saving up for some future high ticket item purchase, such as a house.

And, yeah, the whole system of debt is screwed up since many folks have to get into debt in order to get a higher education, and sometimes that can make sense if you are later able to increase your social status or your job skills and perhaps be able to get into social/employment circles that you would not have previously had been able to enter.

Sure, the business or investment examples are not a bad ones either, and yes that relates to productive rather than consumptive purposes, and so some of the ways of thinking about a loan would be to consider how much the loan is costing to service  - which surely such costs of any loan can be projected out and surely some folks are able to garner better loan terms than others (both in terms of length of the loan and interest rate), partly based on credit score, but also might be based on putting up collateral.  Part of the calculation for the loan should be a consideration that whatever you are doing with the loan is going to be able to earn you equal or more money than it costs you to get the loan.. and surely some of those future numbers are not completely known, so many times there will be some risks in terms of being wrong in your calculations, so surely you should be trying to make sure that you are able to service your loan (in whole or in part) from funds that are other than the thing(s) that you are investing into.

It seems in this thread that a lot of members are focusing on the negative aspects of loan, which seems to include both when people are getting loans for potentially ill-thought out reasons, and so sometimes they will end up getting into bad situations when they are using loans to consume beyond their means. but maybe not realizing that they are engaged in such ill-thought out practices, and surely those are things that happens with loans - but the mere fact that people use debt in bad ways and don't know how to manage it does not mean that it cannot be a powerful thing that we should be able to use to our advantage.. especially if we either have cashflows to service debts, we may be able to increase our cashflows with such debt and/or we might have various assets that we are able to put as collateral .. and surely maybe some of our assets are accumulating value at a rate that is equal or greater than the costs of servicing the debt (whether there may be ways to use bitcoin as pristine collateral or other forms of collateral that we might believe is more valuable to hold onto rather than to sell.. but still be able to generate cashflow by using debt - and some of the ways of managing debt can be complicated and not necessarily one would want to do without employing ways of hedging themselves).

Something is wrong with your report

Maybe even your previous results in the table is wrong.. since your table results show that you had 75 pushups in 2 days.. and if you are saying that now you are doing around 100 pushups per day.. your report should show your total number of days doing pushups.. which would be either 3 or 4  and then it should show your total number of pushup which maybe is 285 or maybe it could be some other number that you need to add up and put into a proper report if you want your correct totals to be in the table.. Maybe look at the OP if you cannot figure out how to write a proper report.. or look at how other members are writing their reports.


@Jerrycrypto2024 - If you want your name and results added in the pushup table, you need to provide a properly formatted pushup report in order that Dirty Keyboard's script will be able to pick it up (and include that information into the pushup table).

As we get older (especially after our mid-30s), we have more and more difficulties retaining muscle, and that is one of the benefits of resistance training rather than cardio.. of course, some cardio is good, and walking can be quite good too.. but sometimes there is going to be a need for some kind of resistance training, especially as we are getting older... We are all getting older.. but some of us might already be older than others, and yeah, whether there is any kind of actual need to do resistance training or cardio exercises or just to do normal activities can be questions of preferences, and surely diet and sleep are also important in terms of attempting to maintain health.


Surely some of the manual labor can be good too.. and surely dumbbells can be used as a form of resistance training, too.

Emergency funds are not a part of your cashflow.  You seem to be talking about some kind of a float.  Emergency funds are something that you build up and then you likely never will have to touch.. ever..  they are usually something .like 3-6 months of your expenses, so if you lose your job or you get hit by a bus, but you are still living, you might have some expenses but unable to work for 3-6 months, but if you are managing your money well, you may well have other funds such as reserves and a float that you would use prior to even dipping into your emergency funds.  

Let me use the example that I used from the other thread:

If you have an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month, and most of the time you receive around $2,400, and you have expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then that is around $400 in disposable income, but surely it varies, so minimally you should likely be holding around $6,600 in cash to cover 3 months of your expenses.

yes you might have other money that is extra cash float or that you are holding in reserves for other purposes, maybe for buying on the dip or just for using when your income might be low.  You could spend 20-30 years or more never touching your emergency fund because if you have fluctuations in your cashflow, you would tap into your reserves and your float first, so hopefully you never get into a situation that you even need to touch your emergency fund.. because if you do, then shit is really hitting the fan at that point... and your situation has become more dire.. .. so in some sense if you are using your float and your reserves you can continue to buy BTC every week since buying BTC may well be a priority for anyone who is trying to build their stash... but whether they are able to build their BTC $50 per week or $100 per week or some other amount is going to vary on other ways that they are managing their cash, since it is good to be aggressive, but it is not good to put yourself into a situation that you don't have any money and you have to dip into your emergency fund.

another thing is that people who don't invest, might not even be in the practice of maintaining an emergency fund. ..and that might be part of the reason that they are poor and don't invest...because they are not managing their money well.. and so if someone is brand new to bitcoin and they do not have an emergency fund, they may well have to invest smaller amounts into BTC wheil they are building their emergency fund, and once the emergency fund gets up to 6 months then they can be more aggressive in their BTC investing.  

Another mistake that poor people make is to use their investment (BTC in this case) as their emergency fund.. and yeah, they are going to have fun staying poor, because you should not have to dip into your BTC ever, except upon a time that you have already chosen based on criteria that you had already set.. whether that is 1-2 cycles down the road or reaching some level or whatever that criteria might be.

This year we already had several new ATHs between $69k and $73,794, so are you waiting for more?

If you are merely waiting for a new ATH, then how are you going to know that it is enough?  and why would you necessarily hold your value in dollars rather than holding your value in bitcoin?

So there still can come questions in regards to whether you even accumulated enough BTC in order to start to be in a position to sell some of it.  Surely you are the best person to judge that, even though historically we have witnessed a lot of folks selling way too many BTC too soon, and even if they might have had gotten decent dollar profits out of the BTC that they sold, the crux of the matter was that they had not really acquired enough BTC in order to be selling as many BTC as they ended up selling, so personally, to me it seems problematic for people to be obsessed with selling if they have not even been in bitcoin for a full cycle, absent if they had been able to already accumulate a lot or somehow to have had been able to front load their investment.. but hey, whatever, each of us have our styles and if you want to try your luck at trading, maybe you will get lucky with that... and maybe you won't end up selling too much too soon and maybe the BTC price will dip so that you can buy back more than you sold or whatever it is that you are wanting to do with your BTC once you sell them.. buy a car?  Go on a trip?

So yeah, if you started accumulating bitcoin at around the time of your forum registration, which is late 2021, sure it is possible that you could have had accumulated enough BTC, since your forum registration date matches up with my own history in which I got into bitcoin at the top of the 2013 price run.. so that would have had been 8 years earlier.. so yeah, I had only accumulated through 2014 and more  than half of 2015, so I had already created a selling strategy for myself in around mid 2015 that I started to employ at around $250.. and it was based on some formulas in terms of just selling from my profits, so as the price went up I could sell up to 10% of my holdings every time the price doubled (and in the beginning I could only use the portion of my BTC that was in profits, but by the time the BTC price got into above $500, most of my holdings were already in profits, so I could use the formula for all of my holdings.. .. so think about it if I had 10 bitcoin and the BTC price was $500, so they would be worth $5,000, and so if the price went up to $1k, I would be able to sell up to 1 BTC, but I think that I never ended up selling the full 10% authorized amount.. so then there is another question regarding what is the accumulation level, so if I had a total investment portfolio of $50k and then 10% was in bitcoin, but then if the BTC  price doubled, then all of a sudden due to BTC's price doubling, then 20% of my investment portfolio was in bitcoin, so my point is that there are way us that you can figure out some formulas, but I think that you have to get to a state of over accumulation, and you don't necessarily sell to buy back but sell based on taking some of your BTC off the table because you have enough or you have too much.... and you can figure out your own rationalization for why you might sell without having more than a whole cycle accumulating.. unless somehow you had been able to overly accumulate. within your own definition of what overaccumulation might be (if there is such a thing?).


Some people cannot resist and they want to trade and/or to get involved in shitcoins, so if they can at least limit the amount that they trade and/or get involved in shitcoins, then they would likely be in a better position than if they did not have any limits on how much they would be trading/shitcoining.  But yeah, sometimes there is no real way from stopping people from doing what they want, so they might believe that they have been able to identify some kind of a winning system or a winning shitcoin.. . .but sometimes it is just a "feeling" rather than really being sufficiently thought through.

By the way, it does not make a whole lot of sense to me to focus very much in regards to what others might be doing, even though surely in the various threads of this forum we are interacting with others, but we still have to figure out our own plans and sometimes interact with others in terms of of comparing our plans, so there could be some hypothetical persons who have been in bitcoin for only a couple of years or maybe 2.5 years but still able to pretty much front load their bitcoin investment - especially since we had a pretty long period of bitcoin dippening between more or less June 2022 through October 2023.. so that time period could have had allowed for a decent amount of BTC accumulating, even though surely the periods that we were below $20k would have been the better time periods, even though I know that in reality it might not always be possible to really stock up on bitcoin during the best of times.. because sometimes any of us can have our own limitations in regards to either how much cash we are able to get for buying bitcoin and we may not even consider it to invest into bitcoin more than a certain amount of value, and I even found myself in those kinds of dilemmas in late 2014, when I was actually considering if I might want to convert some of the allocations that I had in other investments into bitcoin, which I mostly ended up rejecting under the conclusion that I felt that I already had enough BTC.


Yes a lot of folks are tempted by trading, and so of course, they are free to do what they like and sometimes the amounts that they are selling and making profits in dollars are not really even very much, but some folks want to spend their time in that kind  of a practice rather than just continuing to buy bitcoin over a whole cycle or more. .and then maybe reassessing their situation after they have spent some time building up a BTC stash.. if they have built up a BTC stash buy just engaging in various forms of buying (lump sum, DCA and buying on dips), then they likely will be more informed about what to do and/or how much capital they might want to put into trading rather than just staying in a practice of investing.


Sure you can decide how much BTC you are going to buy based on when you are paid, yet surely you have to figure out your various bills too.  So maybe you have some monthly bills and some weekly bills and so you have various expenses coming due at different times and you also have your income coming in at various times too. 

I personally like the idea of beginners investing every singles week, and sure there could be ways to set the buys up automatically, or they can just manually buy each week.  So for example, if they have an income that is around $1.6k to $3.8k per month,  and most of the time they receive around $2,400, and they have expenses that are usually $1,800 to $2,200 per month, and most of the time the expenses are $2,000, then they may well be in a position that they could plan to buy $100 in bitcoin per week, but they also have to have emergency funds, reserve funds and a float, so that they are able to continue to buy bitcoin weekly even if sometimes their pay might be lower than average and if their expenses might be more than expected from time to time... so yeah, it can take a bit of time to put systems in place so that you are in charge of your own DCA amount, but then also having enough of a financial cushion so that you can do what you want in terms of sometimes buying extra.. or maybe having something like a side fund that is set aside that allows you to do $50 per week no matter what, even if there might be some months that you have low income.

Technically you should not be using emergency funds to buy dips.. but you can use reserve funds.  Yeah of course people call these things different things, but the idea of emergency funds is to have money to live and to pay for your expense if an actual emergency takes place or if you lose your income for some reason, you have a little bit of breathing space.

Reserve funds would be extra money, so you should never dip into your emergency funds for anything other than needing to live because you ran out of other money.

In my particular case in 2014 I had been buying all year long and the price dropped from $1k all the way down to the $300s, and then in January 2015, there was an extra drop and then the BTC price pretty much stayed in the mid $200s until about October 2015, but I was already running out of money in January and I had some other business related complications that happened in early 2015 in which some of my cashflow was jeopardized for several months - and so I was not able to buy bitcoin for a few months - even though BTC was relatively cheap then, but whenever I was able to get some extra money come in, then I would use half of it to buy bitcoin at whatever the price was and then the other half I had to put into my account for the expenses of the business that I had at that time.

So by the middle of 2015 I started to have a bit or normalization return to my cashflow, but then at the same time the BTC price started to slowly go back up at the end of 2015 - even though the BTC price got caught in an area of about $400-ish for nearly 6 months between November 2015 until May 2016... but my own cashflow was beginning to normalize again in 2016, and so it is a bit ironic how sometimes the cashflow problems can also happen at the same time that the BTC price is at its lowest, which was the situation for a large part of 2015.

There can be long periods in which you might not be sure if you should spend your extra cash to buy more bitcoin or to just sit it out, especially if you might feel that you have enough bitcoin, but there still can be some temptation to buy more when the prices are quite a bit below your average costs.. so it can be a bit of a dilemma...and seem to take quite a bit of time to play out, like you suggested.


There are frequently uncertainties in bitcoin; however, the kinds of uncertainties are changing with the passage of time. and so even there are uncertainties today with various attacks on self-custody..


Sure bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting any weaker, even if some of the upside potential is not as much, but similar things were being said in 2017 when BTC went from $1k to $19,666, and a remember a lot of folks pumping shitcoins and saying that bitcoin did not have any more upside potential, so people should be buying more shitcoins in order to get upside potential, but the fact of the matter is that bitcoin actually ended up pumping around 78x in those 2 years from late 2015 to late 2017, so I see no reason for anyone to feel that they need to be more greedy than that, and surely the price corrected back down into the $3ks, but surely spent a lot of time in 2018-2020 between around $6k and $10k... before stepping up to higher plateaus, including our current level of supposed uncertainties.

Surely many of us likely realize that bitcoin has an ability to get around 1,000x gold's market cap, even though currently it is about 1/10th of gold's market cap... and so in that regard, bitcoin still has a lot of upside potential, even though it could take 50 to 200 years or more to reach its upside potential, and so many of the current newbie entrants are investing in mch shorter timelines that likely want to know if bitcoin is a good investment in the next 5 to 10 to 20 to 30 years.  So our actual personal investment timelines would be considering wanting to profit within our own life times rather than needing to wait for longer term macro aspects to play out.. and in that regard, there are still some folks who are attempting to front run bitcoin and get their own bitcoin prior to the masses of the population coming into bitcoin, which truly should be an advantage for any of the normies who already know about bitcoin and who are investing into it, as compared to folks who might not really now about it and are not actually taking action to invest into it, even if they do know some things about it.

So yeah.. no one knows, and you have to figure out your own allocation level that is comfortable for your level of balancing out your life circumstances.

You seem to be presuming that this is ONLY a temporary condition?..

I mean we had a pump towards the end of last week that continued through the weekend, and sure we are not back to the location in which the pump started (maybe around $59,500-ish), but we are close to the same place we were at the start of the weekend.. upper $62ks-ish..

I am getting the sense that there is nothing much to see here... but maybe it is just me?

By the way, I was starting to potentially get a little aroused that we might have gotten towards the beginning of the noman's land, which I still think is around $55k- even though some folks think it is in the lower $50ks - and I am neither impressed with those ideas nor the idea that lower $50ks need to be revisited.. yet playing around with the lower to mid $60ks seems like a BIG nothing burger, and sure currently all of our top 100 weighted average days have to be in the $60ks in order to get added to the table...

- $60,481 as of today to be exact.. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.msg64037901#msg64037901

Perhaps in 5 days all of the sub $61k prices are going to be removed from that top 100 table...

Sometimes the creation of higher prices on the table takes time to play out..  We still have a 2021 date in that table that is as high as 26th place, which is $67,483.. so it could take a while to get that one off of the table.. 75 days minimum.. and probably a while longer than that the way these price actions seem to be going, and I don't know if BTC's price failure/refusal to go up action is being exacerbated based on so many seemingly ongoing attacks on self-custody, which many of us already realize to be quite a bit of the raison d'etre regarding bitcoin even having a value proposition.

We have the pushup challenge going on... You could start out with 30 per day..  3 sets of 10 or some other manageable way of getting in some exercise as we are planning for $100k (as an intermediary bump in the road to higher BTC price statuses)

100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge


It is not really in unusual territories, and it is currently going up at about a pace of 42% annualized (about $40 per day currently)... That is neither outrageous nor whimpy.. .... and yeah also currently the spot price is right around 85% higher than the 200-WMA.    You can see current or historical dates for the 200-WMA as compared to the BTC spot price here : https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

Of course, over the years, there have been various spikes of the BTC spot price below the 200-WMA that were short-lived, yet the period of June 2022 to October 2023 had several times in which the BTC price was quite a bit below the 200-WMA, yet the 200-WMA did continue to move up during that period at an annual rate of about 20%.  You can look at the specific differences between the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA on any particular date at this website.


I am just providing my own base case scenario, so of course, I would not suggest that my base case scenario is anywhere close to guaranteed, but I am thinking that the base case scenario of the BTC spot price staying above the 200-WMA for the next 18 months is the most likely out of any of the possible scenarios based on facts currently known... ... and sure of course price trends can change suddenly and maybe even for little to no reason, and also there can be irrational spikes and black swan events that end up invalidating the base case scenario that I am currently anticipating.

My fuck you status chart also lists the historical 200-WMA's in 6 month increments, and I am anticipating to update that chart in early June, so currently, the 200-WMA is out performing my anticipated 16% (32% annualized) performance by 5% (10% annualized), is it appears that we are going to experience close to a 21% (42% annualized) increase in the 200-WMA by May 31st.....   You can also see that in that fuck you status chart, I attempt to project out the increase in the 200-WMA until 2074 - and surely I am projecting out a diminishing rate of increase, yet with anything related to the future, there can be factors that contribute towards the results playing out differently from the projection... including ongoing concerns that many of us might have in the direction of the various ongoing attacks related to bitcoin self-custody.. .which from my perspective is likely to create a lot of scoff law and underground operations - which would not be so bullish in regards to bitcoin's short-to-medium term price.

Cited for viewability.. ... .

You (@As-Soon-As) might want to make some of your own comments and analysis in reference to your posts rather than just posting information from twitter or whatever other sources you have been posting in your recent posts...

A somewhat personal question:  Are you a bot?  Are do you have any actual ideas that come from a live and breathing person?  one bot asking another


Gosh!!!!!!!!!!  That escalated quickly.

I was going to ask whether a hat was going to be included... but now, I feel that would be too "nice" of a question.

You have a weird way of describing DCA, which causes me to consider that maybe you might not really understand the advantages of employing DCA versus using some other method of buying BTC.

DCA does not give you the lowest possible BTC price, but it does allow you to manage your own finances, and to buy BTC aggressively within your own budget, so yeah if the price happens to dip then you are buying more BTC with the same dollars and if it goes up your are buying fewer BTC with the same dollars.

However, with DCA you may well end up with higher costs per BTC, but you can structure so that you can continue to accumulate no matter what.

Largely following a strict DCA approach is price agnostic and yet there is a presumption with DCA that the BTC price is ultimately going to go higher than your average costs per BTC, so you likely will end up in profits so long as the general price trend of bitcoin is upwards.. so sometimes it coudl take several years before your BTC holdings are actually in profits in terms of dollars, but continuing to employ DCA allows you to continue to build you BTC stash no matter the price of the BTC and so in some sense there is not even a focus on how much is your average price per BTC, even though it does not hurt to keep track of your average cost per BTC, but your average cost per BTC would likely be less important than the fact that your employment of DCA would allow continued, ongong and persistent stacking of sats..

Fair enough in regards to the further explanation in regards to the various things that earlier adopters might have done, and surely there has been a decent amount of variance, and yeah some may have sold too many too soon, and others may have just sold portions of their stack. Some may have had conviction from the beginning and others developed their conviction later, and surely it would be difficult to characterize in general kinds of ways, since there surely have been some folks who might have had approached BTC in similar ways as me, and surely there are differences in the financial circumstances of folks and even their technical knowledge, and including considering details of their 9 individual factors, too.

By the way, I am claiming that my average cost per BTC is right around $1k, so yeah, I bought bitcoin cheaper and more expensive than that.  I think that the lowest that I bought BTC was around $182.. but surely I did not buy very much because I had run out of money, and really when the BTC is dipping that low, sometimes we will run out of money, and I ran out of money for a lot of 2015 during the time that the BTC prices were in the $200s, and surely I have some purchases in the $200s, but really there sometimes can be difficulties buying when the BTC price is so low, especially if you already have a bunch of BTC and your costs happen to be way higher than the then current price. 

Also, I made several mistakes along the way, which I expect others to have had made some mistakes along the way too, whether they are earlier adopters or not.. and the concept of early adopter is surely a relative term, since it is likely that anyone getting in below $1k will be considered an early adopter to some, and anyone getting in below $10k will also be considered an early adopter to others. .maybe a bit later down the road, even though newbies to bitcoin likely realize that it is quite unlikely that either sub $10k or even sub 20k or $30k will ever be reached again.. Surely the lower the price, the more confidence that we might have that such prices are not likely to ever be reached again (absent some breaking of bitcoin).

Since we are still likely less than 1% of the world's population into bitcoin, is it is likely in the next 4-years or even less that we might be able to develop some confidence that sub $100k will never be reached again.. Surely, we cannot really know, but it does seem prudent that folks figure out some kind of an allocation into bitcoin so that they have some of it and are able to build their holdings of it, even if the amount that they are building is not very large in quantity.

By the way, there are some later adopters who have quite a bit more BTC than earlier adopters, and sure the odds are against them, and sure their costs per BTC are way higher than the earlier adopters, but still some of the later adopters are able to put themselves into a better position in terms of their BTC position, even though it ended up costing them a lot more to build their BTC stash... so a guy who bought 5 BTC for an average price of around $10k per BTC is likely better off than the guy who bought 2 BTC for an average cost of around $1k, and there are a lot of variations of those kinds of examples where later adopters who are more aggressive persistent and organized might end up putting themselves into a better place than some of the early adopters who are more whimpy, hesitant and perhaps engaging in some bad practices (trading, consumption and/or distracted into shitcoins) that did not emphasize BTC accumulation.


You don't know that, especially since you do not know the future... maybe you could say that gravity will still exist, but you cannot even sayt hat the sun will still come up in the east and set in the west in 3-4 years.


Past price performance does not guarantee future results.


Even if it does not seem right, it is right.. there is no guarantee, even if you might assign high probability towards profits being present in 3-4 years... that high probability still is not a guarantee.


The investment thesis in bitcoin is strong enough that a long time frame should be something that someone should be able to commit to.. .and figure out an allocation size that is appropriate towards his being able to hold for the long term (and perhaps continue to buy too.. until he reaches his own accumulation goal.. which also might be a bit of a moving target).


Even if you might end up being correct that BTC is "in profits" 3-4 years down the road, your way of thinking is likely to get you into trouble.. but hey you can think how you like, but you are sharing incorrect information if you proclaiming that profits in bitcoin are guaranteed..,. and hopefully no one believes you. .and people who listen to you might consider that you don't have a lot of credibility because you talk in terms of absolutes... but surely there are some people who might be dumb enough to believe you, but probably a lot of folks will consider you a looney if you talk like that.

There are likely better ways to frame the matter without having to talk in terms of absolutes, but if your brain is broken, you might not even be capable of understanding anything other than absolutes.

By the way, when we talk about the past, frequently we can talk about absolutes because it already happened, even though sometimes people will disagree about what happened in the past.  Once the future turns into the past, then it could be described in absolutes, but even with the future there are a lot of variables, and sometimes low probability scenarios end up playing out, but once the low probability scenario plays out, that scenario ends up becoming 100%, even though it might have been predicted as a long shot or even hardly likely to happen.

There is nothing wrong with conducting ones life with expectations of what are more likely scenarios to play out, but surely we know that more likely scenarios frequently do not end up playing out, even if they had been reasonably considered to have had been the more likely scenario. Sometimes the playing out of a minority scenario will end up affecting future possibilities, and sometimes the minor scenarios end up being inconsequential in terms of their connection to other systems in life, whether we are talking about something in nature on a small scale or maybe some human interaction systems such as politics and economics and markets.. or some human interactions are very local in nature and others are more global, but sometimes local events will also effect global events... and some of the events are within predictable parameters and other times, some kinds of things come out of the blue and they end up affecting other systems.

Of course, bitcoin touches upon a lot of systems, and has potential to touch upon a lot of systems, which is one of the important things in terms of learning about bitcoin, and witnessing the varying ways that it continues to exist with various kinds of ongoing adoption, but also with various kinds of ongoing battles amongst folks who are trying to debilitate it in various ways and/or create limits upon how it can be used.