To me it is still confusing, since in order to figure out if something is overly aggressive or not, we still need to start with figuring out what is our discretionary income, so you need to start by showing income as compared with expenses in order to show what is the discretionary income.  So from my point of view you seem to be assuming too many things, and sure you might be correct in some of those assumptions.

Another thing that I already mentioned is that if your emergency fund, reserves and float is already in place, then there would be no need to build them or have money for them because they are already there.  However, if you are building them up, then surely they get built up from the discretionary income, so that takes away from how much discretionary income that you would have left for investing into bitcoin.

Any prudent person would not decide how much to invest into bitcoin prior to knowing his discretionary income, even though you may well be implying that the amount selected is within discretionary income, while at the time trying to provide an example that is obviously over the top, but you should not get that extreme (or also unrealistic from my point of view), since like I already said you need to give some kind of numbers for expenses so that we know how much money we have, and if you are saying that the whole $1,500 is discretionary income because the expenses have already been taken care of, even that seems unrealistic even for a guy who might be living with his parents.  Everyone has some levels of expenses.

Another mistake that many of you are making is to presume that there are 4 weeks in a month, when the fact of the matter is that there is like 4.33 weeks in a month (remember 52 weeks in a year, not 48 weeks), so that makes a difference.


Maybe you do live with your parents if you believe that you can get all of that, including your expenses from $300 per month.

In other words, you cannot be fucking around with hypotheticals that are all over the place.  Tell us from the start what are the expenses.  Yes, they are going to vary with people, but for the sake of the hypothetical, we need to know that in advance prior to figuring out how much we have left for investing and/or for building our emergency funds and reserves, in the case that those systems are not already in place.

If you do not have emergency funds, reserves and/or float, I personally suggest to build them simultaneously while investing into bitcoin, yet of course, there is going to be quite a bit of personal discretion regarding how to do it in terms of how nervous any of us might be in regards to whether we have enough emergency funds, reserves and float, and part of the reason to have those things in the first place is so that you do not ever have to dip into your bitcoin investment at a time that is other than your completely own choosing, so if you do not have any bitcoin investment, then you are just building your various funds and holding cash which surely does not tend to be a great place to keep a lot of value, even though you do need to keep some amount of value in cash and more and more in cash the larger that your bitcoin investment grows. since you would not want to be forced into selling BTC at a time that is not of your own complete choosing.

Details are going to vary, but I personally would choose to build the emergency fund at the same rate as building the BTC holdings at least until you get up to 3 months worth of expenses in your emergency fund, and then once you reach 3 months in your emergency fund, then you might want to start to build some of your reserves (and many of us already are used to having some kind of float), but reserves can be used for all kinds of things.. for example, money set aside for buying BTC on dips, saving for a bicycle, keeping money in reserves to go out to special restaurant from time to time, saving for a new car or perhaps keeping a fund for car repairs, and all kinds of miscellaneous categories to the extent that that kind of money might not already be somewhat generally covered by whatever cash float that you might maintain from month to month... .. or between the times of paying certain bills that might have some variance (electricity, food, transportation or whatever those costs could vary quite a bit from month to month  and the float might be extra that you have available in case one or the other of them is particularly higher than expected for the month).


There is no need to presume impossible levels, yet sure there is going to be some variation in terms if people might have already been investing, saving or engaging in sound personal financial management practices prior to getting into bitcoin, but we do not necessarily need to presume that to be the case, yet if someone has very strong finances when coming into bitcoin, then they will be able afford to be even more aggressive in their start to bitcoin as compared to someone who might not have very many of those systems in place. 

I have frequently speculated that many normies have practices of perhaps having a couple of weeks of float in their finances, and maybe there are some that might have a whole month or 6 weeks, but many folks tend to run their finances in paycheck to paycheck kinds of ways in which they do not have very much of a cash float.  So if they are getting into bitcoin, then they are going to have to build better practices, since merely having only a couple of weeks float or even up to 6 weeks worth of float, is not generally going to be enough to provide strong assurances that the newbie investor is not going to need to dip into his bitcoin investment at a time that is not completely of his own choosing, so anyone who has a 2-6 week float is likely going to need to build their emergency fund from that and to temper their own bitcoin investment levels in such a way that they are building at least an emergency fund of 3 months of their expenses, and yeah maybe their investment into bitcoin and their building of their emergency fund reach 3 months of their expenses in size at around the same time, and yeah, it could take 6-12 months just to get to that point, depending on the level of discretionary income that the person has.. so I am not going to presume that they can build those up very fast if they are already in a relatively weak practice of ONLY maintaining a 2-6 week float... but whatever, individuals may well vary in terms of their abilities to draw from some other sources of savings and/or investments that they might have had.. otherwise all of this is coming from their discretionary income, including that they might need to spend some time building up their discretionary income by increasing their income or cutting their expenses.


Yes you clarified it, and thanks for that, yet it still sucks as an example for the reasons that I already stated and additionally, are you even trying to be realistic with this example? since the example does not completely help us to figure out why the guy is overinvesting, even though surely the facts are not controversial, and so maybe in that sense you are creating a strawman hypothetical, yet it is still so unrealistic that it is not really stimulating any of us to think in clear ways, including that you really did not make it clear from the start, and you still are not making it clear because you are failing/refusing to specify expenses.. which should be something that anyone should already have some pretty good ideas about whenever they start to invest, they should have a pretty good idea of their income and their expenses, so that they know how much discretionary income that they have to even be qualified to start to invest (other wise they are gambling and/or too unorganized) and yeah there are people who do not have their finances in order, but we should not be using those kinds of folks as models, but instead trying to help them to show them what kinds of ways they need to "get their shit together".. personal financial matters I mean, and if their personal financial matters are in a pretty BIG disarray, that does not mean that they cannot start investing into bitcoin, but they might have to take a fairly small position while they are otherwise organizing their personal financial matters in a way to make them have cushions so that they never have to sell any BTC at a time that is not of their complete own choosing, and if they cannot do that, then they are gambling rather than investing.. which is not recommended, even though people do it.. but we do not aspire to be like the traders and gamblers.. especially with bitcoin, since that is a losers game, unless you happen to have had developed special skills, and we are not going to presume special skills, so that's part of the reason to start with investing into BTC prior to trading and/or gambling of BTC.

The arbitrage abilities between exchanges is way less than it was in our earlier days of bitcoin, so I am having difficulties understanding what you are talking about.

If you want to either buy or sell BTC, you can do it as a market order or as a limited order.

By the way, BIG players, whales, bots or whatever manipulators try to hold prices in place and to profit from small moves in the BTC price until they are not able to no longer hold the BTC price in place.. Then what happens?  it goes in one direction or another until they are able to try to hold it in place again... what is the BIG deal? They are able to do it until they aren't. so what?


I was thinking that another good category for a bet would be something like a percentage up or a percentage down, so the price would have to be out further than the percentage that had been predicted.

Another thing that I thought is that maybe your report (or your tally) should show the relevant information, which would be the price the previous day when the bet opened and the price upon closing.

Maybe another thing it should show the balance of anyone who had already placed a bet previously even if they had not bet that day (greyhats for example)... and maybe sort the results by balances in the account (game).

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,down,100,2024-05-14

On the face of it.. I would call that pretty whimpy.

a good starting point would be 3 sets of 8-12 pushups per set... but hey whatever... do what you like or are able to do, and if you cannot do 8-12 full pushups in a set, there probably would be some way to do modified pushups so that you can get in some repetitions...

so there is something valuable that comes from a certain quantity of something like pushups (meaning repetitions)... versus low reps (and supposedly high weight).. but hey maybe ONLY you know the details regarding why you believe 2 sets of 5-6 pushups is actually something to be taken seriously by the rest of us in terms of why you think that is a good place for a "beginner" to start.

Also, by the way, a report is how many pushups that you actually did, and there is a format for that, so that your results get into the table, in the event that you would like your results to get into the table.. so once you actually do them, then put them in a proper report format.. and hopefully they are not averaging below 10 pushups per day or otherwise skewing the rest of us downardly based on something that might border on an appearance (at least from my perspective) of not being serious.

You seem to have a lot of the ideas correct, but I am a bit confused by your example, and also a lot of the time, once the emergency fund is set, then it is largely never going to be touched, absent an actual emergency and if you have some reserves already in place, you may well not even need to dip into your emergency fund since your reserves and you float should be able to  cover irregularities.

Your own example is confusing because when you give examples the starting points should describe the income as compared with the expenses in order that we are able to figure out how much discretionary income is available for investing.. so if we see that the discretionary income is not enough, then the person is over investing, or if he had not already established an emergency fund and reserves then he might be over investing, but from your example we do not know enough regarding what is the actual discretionary income in order to be able to determine if he is doing too much.

I am not even opposed to a guy investing 100% of his discretionary income into bitcoin as long as he has a sufficient emergency fund and float - but if he has made miscalculations and does not have those back ups then he might end up having to dip into his BTC at a time that is not completely of his own choosing.

The emergency fund should generally be a minimum of 3 months of cash or cash equivalents - something that is fairly easy to access and is denominated in your local currency, yet I know some folks would prefer to hold their emergency fund in dollars, even if they have a different local currency, and so that might not be a problem as long as there are ways to easily move into the local currency or that the dollars would be accepted for expenses if you were to have to use your emergency funds for your expenses or surprise expenses.


hahahaha.. you enjoy the repetition of theme, and surely we have a thread that seems to have a bit of a focus on buying the dip, even though many times someone who is regularly DCAing will already be buying the dip and also buying the non-dip and perhaps even claiming that s/he cannot really know how much of a dip is a dip and if it might keep dipping.

Your rounding the top to $70k seems a bit understating our current high was $73,794 on March 13, and that is nearly 5.5% higher than your rounded off number.. and yeah some of those details can make a bit of a difference in terms of measuring how much of a dip are we in and how much of a dip have we gotten so far.  Surely the low of this particular dip has so far gotten down to $56,500, which is 23.5%, and that is a pretty decent dip, if any one had gotten any coins in the $56.5k to $60k territories, since currently we are at $62,462 as I type this post, which is ONLY about a 15.5% dip from the top, and yeah those numbers could make differences that matter for some folks buying BTC, and again, there may well be some DCA'ers who are continuing to buy in the last several months, even prior to these latest dips and they are largely accumulating BTC, and maybe they are paying a bit more per BTC, but they don't really know how waiting around for a dip is going to help to prepare them for UP, so it may well be better to have a bit of a higher average and to continue to invest rather than spending too much time waiting around for dips that might or might not end up happening.


Hahahahaha.. not so obvious to me. I think that the main thing a person should know is his/her own finances, and their feelings and knowledge about bitcoin as compared to other possible investments is ONLY one of the 9 factors that they can learn along the way.


Those are still basics and background ideas that people can learn about as they go, and in the meantime, they just get started with their $10 per week or whatever while they are learning about bitcoin, and their having had started to invest into it will surely help them to pay more attention than if they were just sitting back and waiting ... sure if they are skeptical  and maybe they could invest $100 per week, but instead they choose $10 per week and as they study the matter, they might become more convicted about bitcoin later down the road, but at least they had gotten started... maybe too whimpily, but better than nothing, which is where the overwhelming majority of the population (perhaps in the ballpark of 99%) is..


Let's not get distracted by currencies.. We use dollars as a reference, but you can convert it to your own currency.

If the guy makes $1,500 per month, and he has $600 worth of expenses, then he has $900 of discretionary income.

You can talk about niara.. but you are going to confuse people, so give your example in dollars, even if you might be referring to the niara... The principles are still going to be the same.  You have a certain amount of income that is coming in and then you have a certain amount of expenses that you need to pay out, and what is left is your disposable income. 

If your income and your expenses are bouncing all over the place each month, then your disposable income will be bouncing all over the place too.  so each of us has to figure out how to deal with large fluctuations in our income and/or our expenses, and emergency funds, reserves and float become more important in the situations where the income and/or expenses bounce around a lot.  Since this a general thread, there should be no issue about my country versus your country, especially since we can convert to the dollar to have a common reference and if the examples are not realistic, then maybe we are not using realistic numbers.  Truly a lot of people have a hard time consistently investing/saving 10% of their income, so if you are using examples in which discretionary income is way higher than 10% or even greater than 50%, then that might start to seem unrealistic and maybe you have to explain.. .. and surely there are some people who purposefully choose to live a very modest life and they have a lot of discretionary income that they are able to invest, and those people likely are in a better position to invest into bitcoin and into other things (hopefully not shitcoins), but still discretionary income gives a lot of freedom to people when they are in positions of having such a thing.

I am likely going to mix it up a bit, yet at the same time, I am going to work towards doing more full pushups and pausing at the top and the bottom.. and yeah, when you pause at the bottom you are still a little bit above the ground so that you are not touching anything, so that seems to be pretty good form, even though surely there are some examples of guys pausing for longer periods (or maybe their chest is very lightly touching the ground), and I am not sure if I want to do that... but yeah, I am getting to a point in which I don't mind creating some variance in my pushups... yet I am still having a lot of trouble doing a whole set of pushups that are 1.5 seconds per pushup.... .. but yeah, maybe i will get there at some point. 

Each of us does need to attempt to work within his own limitations and perhaps even some of our own goals.. which there could be a point where I no longer want to average 200 pushups per day and maybe I will be o.k. with doing fewer -- but I kind of like having it right now since it seems to be mostly workable in terms of my own schedule.. including that if I might have some days that I fall behind (like I might do fewer sets on some days), it would not be too difficult for me to get back up to a 200 pushups per day average, since my body is seeming pretty well used to it, including that once in a while I am able to do sets with 50-60 pushups and it is not that difficult for me, even though they are not pausing at the tops and bottoms but instead mostly continuously moving.


Maybe start out with 3 sets of 10-12 pushups per day for the first week or two, and then that would get you 30-36 pushups per day.  Perhaps wait 3-5 hours between each set, and you are still likely going to get sore, but if you keep some variation of this up for 1-2 weeks, it will start to get easier for you and then you can either add more pushups per set and/or add more sets, and maybe I would not do any more than 5 sets in a day, yet of course, you can figure out what works for you because some guys like to do more sets with fewer pushups per set, and others like to do more pushups per set and fewer sets, but you likely are not really ready for large number of pushups in each set.

I am getting close to my 100th day of pushups (tomorrow), and I am still sore, but surely not as sore as I was in the first several weeks, and I think that I still try to push myself to limits yet my soreness and overall tiredness from the increased activity (exercising) is not as lingering as it was in the beginning.

You can surely keep track of your pushups on paper or computer, and you can also write down your pushup report in this thread if you want to be included in the table.  It would be nice to have you added to our group of pushers.

You can talk all that you like about how you have matters all under control, but many of us can already read through the lines that you are either overinvested and you likely do not have the conviction that you proclaim to have, and yeah, in the end, it does not matter what we think about you, except that this is a public thread, so if anyone is showing the signs of a scared cat (and a potential weak hand), then it does not hurt to point out those kinds of matters.


Most of the time in threads like this one, it good to talk about 4-10 years or longer, since we cannot really know the situations of so many different people, yet there surely could be some people who purposefully have a shorter investment time frame, such as 4-5 years based on their own life circumstances of health or age or some other specific constriction that they might have, and there could be some folks with some intermediary goals that they are shooting for in 4-5 years, such as buying a house or something like that... .. yet even a person who might have an intermediate goal might be better off to not be exhausting his whole bitcoin savings/investment in that kind of a timeline, but instead might be thinking of ways in which he might be drawing from part of his BTC stash in that kind of a timeline.

We cannot really determine what might be good ways of allocating, and surely some folks still might end up getting their bitcoin allocation wrong or selling too many BTC too soon, but they might also have some balancing considerations that they have to account for, so we cannot really proclaim that there is ONLY one best way to do matters, even though there might be better ways and there might be ways that peope make mistakes, but they still might not kill their investment, but instead their decisions might contribute to their own underperformance - and we do not necessarily know that they will underperform, merely if they choose to sell some of their BTC along the way or they purposefully create a plan in which they might start selling some of their BTC in a much shorter timeline than some of us might consider to be prudent.

There are also the ones who have timelines of less than 4 years, and I consider them to be traders rather than investors, and based on that, they should likely be putting less of their value into those shorter term trades (such as no more than 10% of their bitcoin  holdings), but surely people can have varying ways of considering how much of their value they are using for terms that are shorter than 4 years and also they might enter bitcoin with a plan that is less than 4 years in duration, but after staying in bitcoin for a while, they may well consider changing their plan and/or extending their plan for a period that is longer than 4 years in duration.

I would imagine that sometimes people might not be doing very proper accounting when they are generally putting various kinds of properties into boxes, because many times they will fit in both categories, and sometimes they will have more outweighing on one side versus the other, and that is not necessarily determined by its category but instead determined by the specifics of that particular piece of property.  If you have a house, but you also have a loan against the house, you likely have some ideas of its present valuation, and you project its future valuation based on certain attributes of the house including location, but there could be aspect of your maintenance and/or your improvements along the way or things that happen with the surrounding houses that affect its value.   If you are planning on living in the house for 30 years or more, then maybe you might not care about all of the details, even though you could well be affected by valuations at various points in terms of your paying off your loan or if you want to get further loans against it, and surely taxes can be affected by both valuation and by location.. and the same is true with decisions regarding whether to insure it and how much to insure it for, which also costs money with physical assets, and even if you choose not to insure it, then you are engaging in a kind of self-insurance and/or gambling that may or may not be justifiable. 

We also cannot always know if it ends up being a good place to put your value, since the house's physicality surely has liablity attributes to it, especially if after a few years, you want to move, or need to move to another location, then surely the house might be considered a liability - especially on a short timeline the market value might not have had ended up moving in your favor.


Sure there can be a lot of advantages in having the non-physicality of a digital asset, and that seems to be a considerable advantage of bitcoin over gold, even though many times you hear the gold bugs arguing the opposite, and for sure,  not all digital assets are the same either, so there could be some pretty shitty digitial assets, but there can be some decently shitty digital assets that are pumped in the short-term and may even have decently long periods of outperforming the dollar and perhaps even outperforming a large number of traditional investment assets, yet there are still going to be needs to exercise some precautions in terms of how to valuate digital assets outside of bitcoin.


It seems that any of us who have identified bitcoin as a great place to put our money are going to be handsomely rewarded for such, yet like you suggest, we still  have to consider our allocations, and it would be a bit much to keep all of our value in just this one asset, even if we recognize it as a great place to be.

Sometimes where we are, where we want to be and where we end up getting to can be quite different questions, since the situation regarding how to focus will partly depend upon from where we are starting, and if we come to bitcoin and we already have a bunch of other assets (and cash) and even debt, we may well want to increase our exposure to bitcoin, but we still might not suddenly change it, but instead weigh some of the pluses and minuses of having those other forms of assets, cash and debt and figure out how to include bitcoin into the mix and to increase our allocation into bitcoin - and frequently with bitcoin newbies, I will suggest trying to figure out some kind of a way to target 5% to 25% into bitcoin, and even if such newbie figures out his/her own particular target and then reaches it within 6 months to a year, the story may well not be over in terms of either needs to reassess if a new target might be needed or some new practice in the event that bitcoin's performance might well end up skewing the bitcoin investment to the upside, so then there could come questions about reallocating, if BTC might end up growing in value way faster than the other assets/currencies that are held.   

In late 2014, I had thought that a 10% allocation in bitcoin was good enough, but since BTC prices stayed so low during 2015, I ended up getting up to 13.5% allocation into bitcoin, but then bitcoin's growth after that had caused my allocation to get into the upper 80%s drop back to the mid 40%s and currently I may well be around 75% or something like that, but there can be questions about whether to reallocate or not or to let your winners ride (such as bitcoin, if it happens again?) and those might not be easy decisions to make in terms of how much of your wealth you might have into bitcoin and how you ended up getting it there (by investing into it or did it come through BTC price appreciation that ended up playing out way greater than your other assets).

Each of us has to make these various kinds of allocation decisions, and hopefully we are not rushing into such decisions, even though sometimes we might feel that we need to make reallocation decision and carry them out, and we could have some timeline pressures (or guidelines) that we set upon ourselves when we are making changes and how we go about employing such changes that we deem to be appropriate to our situation.

I suppose ongoing reduction of the 2021 dates provides some concrete evidence of BTC prices bouncing around mostly in the top of the range, so in that sense, we are doing pretty good in terms of already having so many 2024 dates in the top 100.

At the same time, the best case scenario would still take 75-ish days to push all of the remaining 2021 dates out of the top 100.... and currently, on the surface, there seems to be a bit of a dilemma about our going (or returning to) UPpity.. even though in bitcoinlandia, we already can recognize / appreciate that there have been many times that price direction can end up playing out fairly quickly which then can frequently have a contagious effect upon sentiment, too.. which is a kind of snowballing effect.

Surely there are folks that believe that such UPpity movement and sentiment cannot play out in the summer, since bitcoin has had quite a bit of ties to liquidity - yet personally, I hate to restrict my own speculations in regards to what can end up happening, whether within the realms of expectations or not.

I am not sure if I understand this, because there could be rules that say that you cannot bet more than one of the categories, but if you are going to hedge, you might bet within the same category.  Sometimes I get confused about a potential dilutive effect of hedging, but it might not necessarily be a problem, but still you might want to have some limits such as 2 bets per category per user per day.. or some variation of that.

And if someone loses his whole bank of fictional WO merits (maybe the WO merits should be called something else - like bet merits or WO bet merits?  - WO BMs, for short.. hahahahahaha.. if you know what BM might mean?), then maybe there could be a way to earn them back.. but you would not want them to be too easily available.. so maybe it could be something quite conservative, like the activity points.. 1 per day as long as your balance is lower than 100 or something like that... which would mean that the most you could earn back would be 100.. but then that might cause participants not to fear going to zero since they could just earn them back 1 WO merit at a time per day.. .. I don't know.. I am not that attached to the earn back idea.


No problem..  Here, I just added the date to my already "wise" projection of UP.

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100.2024-05-13


Oh gawd, Biodom.. .    

Why do you have a tendency towards prematurity?  

I don't see how investment vehicles that cause more avenues to get into bitcoin is going to cause BTC prices to go up less  per year, especially when they are settled in BTC.. Now if they were settled in dollars, that would be another matter.  Yeah retail buyers have to use dollars to buy and sell BTC, but the ETFs have to back up those buys with actual BTC.. they cannot fake it..

Now if somehow the ETFs are faking the BTC that are backing up the shares that they are selling, then that might be a different story, but we do not have evidence of their faking the BTC perhaps beyond the delayed time in which they might have to make sure that they have the quantity of BTC that the shares reflect.. so sure there could be days involved with the making sure that they have the cornz that they claim to have, but it is not fractional reserve system, as far as I understand the situation to be.

Regarding your overall concern.  Did you realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up at all times?

Did you realize that if we use the March 13 ($73,794) top, then BTC prices went up nearly 5x since November 2022? and also nearly than 3x since October 2023?.. .

yeah, yeah, yeah, they corrected back down 23.5% to $56,500.. but even right now as I type this post, we are not at $56,500, we are at $61,111 which is around 8% higher than $56,500 and sure it is still around 17% lower than $73,794, but who cares?  You should already recognize and appreciate that these kinds of corrections are not unusual in bitcoinlandia, and surely we mayw well even consider BTC price actions to be quite ongoingly good since we have been having a lot of ongoing attacks on bitcoin self-custody and related hostilities, so the BTC price continues to do quite well in spite of these kinds of ongoing hostilities - which might cause some of us to hope that some of the attacks might cause some Streisand effects (but that might be too wishful in my own thinking?).

Well, if you are thinking about buying bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, then even if you don't have a lot of capital, you are still going to be ahead of a lot of the scared cats and/or the folks who are failing/refusing to take actions.  So there likely are going to continue to be people who are just coming into bitcoin through the years, and to the extent that you are able, then you should be glad to have had spent time stacking sats prior to the around 99% of the world's population who have failed/refused to stack sats.. and they will likely have to get started later, perhaps after you have already been engaged in such stacking for several years prior to them.

So, yeah, in the end, each of us our responsible for our own levels of stacking and/or failure/refusal to stack in some cases.


I suppose will see how it plays out, since one of the issues could be that if you talk about the various rules, then we might need a spot to reference back to (which usually would be OP).  So in this case, would there be one post that has all of the rules, so maybe like CB's explanation there could be a link to the rules, each time that you post the results that is contained in the post.. and so even if you add or subtract rules, then there would be a way to refer back to them.

I am again wondering how your script is going to differentiate earlier dates, so if I am citing myself, then does that mean that I am placing the same bet.. and maybe it would be good that we would have to put the date in there....

You said that we started with 1,000 WO merits, and if I won 133 then why would I have 1,233? rather than 1,133?   There seems to be something wrong with the maths.  

Below is my new bet (wish me luck... 50/50-ish.. and maybe with a slight tinge of possible favoritism in my own theory.. in the ballpark of 55/45).. and I feel like I should be placing the date inside of my bet to distinguish this bet from my prior one, since you are not going to stop folks from citing themselves or citing the bets of others... but what do I know?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

By the way, I was kind of wondering about being able to bet on all three bet types at once. but you settled that unanswered matter.

The theory that bitcoin might go shooting up to $100k and beyond.. maybe even in the territory of $120k to $180k within this calendar year is a possibility that anyone investing into bitcoin should account for, and the mere fact that any of us consider those as possibilities does not mean that we are going to be reckt if such scenarios do not end up playing out.

The same is true on the opposite end when some folks presume that there have to be "ups and downs," and then they overly rely on such ups and downs taking place, then those folks end up getting fucked when they sell too many BTC too soon.  I have seen it many many times during my time in BTC, and at this point, there is no reason to believe that such upward reckenings might mnot continue to take place.

Even recently, our rise from $15,497 to $73,479 in the past 16 months likely took a lot of folks by surprised, and even the latest leg from $26k-ish since October 2023 - likely caught quite a few folks by surprised who had been expecting larger corrections along the way, and yeah, sure such larger corrections might end up happening prior to bitcoin getting to $100k, but they also might not.  The overreliance goes in both directions, including those folks who believe up and downs have to happen, and then they don't happen as much as they speculated that they were going to happen and then they end up with too few BTC because of their actually acting on those kinds of ideas.

It surely might not matter one way or the other if some one who is a  long term investor and/or holder believe the BTC price might go up to $120k to $180k this year and supra $250k in 2025, and if the price does not go there, then so what, they might not have had any plans on selling anyhow, but can still entertain such ideas.. and sure maybe the problem again could come down to the trader or the guy who overinvests because he is wanting to play short term price waves...

There are ways to set up strategies and even to have opinions about where the BTC price might go that might still not change the strategy, even if the BTC price might not end up going to the expected place.

I am not sure if the thread might become too cluttered, since there is not a new thread for this.  Are you going to publish a table of the betters once a day?

WOGame,JayJuanGee,updown,up,100

Thought that wikipedia page points out some decent BTC price movement highlights, it seems to be missing some interesting periods too, such as there were a lot of interesting BTC price movements between 2011 and 2016, but that wikipedia page does not go into very much detail about BTC price movements during those periods.


Yep.. bitcoin spent almost a whole year below $300 and much of that time in the mid-$200s from late 2014 until late 2015.. and so there was quite a bit of pessimism during that time.. yet by the end of 2015 and then into early 2016 and then around May 2016, it started to become more and more clear that mid-$200 or even below $300 would never be seen again.. and maybe it was not until around April/May or a bit later when it was realized that sub $500 prices would not be seen again. 

And, yeah, none of these are matters of certainty, but sometimes when the price passes a certain amount above previous prices and including coming back down to test support and still fails to go down further, there may well develop increased levels of confidence that the lower prices will not be seen again even though surely nothing is 100% sure, including in March 2020, when we ended up getting a surprise revisiting to sub-$4k prices.. so surely there are times in which BTC price will go to surprisingly low levels, even after those prices might have started to seem as tif they might be impossible to reach again.


Yeah, but you don't know, do you?  You cannot act as if it is impossible for BTC to go up 35% higher than its current (or previous) ATH without any kind of a hiccup, especially if there had already been price consolidations in areas around the current and/or previous ATH.


It is called consolidation.  Bitcoin is not in a "stable" status, even if you might be lulled into believing that it is.


That is not saying hardly anything.. yes price is staying the same because the number of buyers are equal to the number of sellers...

Oh gawd.. what a meaningless observation.


What you going to do at $100k?  Sell?

Good luck with that. You will probably need it, if that happens to be your plan.


You are planning to sell too?

You believe that doubling is good profits?

Good luck with that kind of thinking (and presentation of the matter).

Yes... And if you are actually thinking about bitcoin for the long term, such as 4-10 years or longer, then your average cost per BTC will not matter so much because you are not planning on selling any time soon.  At the same time, maybe after 6 months, 1 year or 2 years, you might get to a point in which you have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC, and you might start to consider if you might want to attempt to be more strategic in regards to when you buy.. but even sometimes those people who are overly trying to be strategic about their BTC buys, they may well end up with way less BTC because they are spending more time waiting rather than actually buying.  You have to figure out what works for you, and surely there is no turning back the clock if you might have had some opportunities to buy BTC, but if the BTC price does a step ladder kind of a move upwardly, and it does not come back down and then you might be thinking that maybe you should have had bought some rather than waiting..

and sure, you do not have to buy with everything that you have, yet even waiting with some of your value (and holding it aside for  potential dips) is a choice that may or may not be a good idea.. but that also may well depend upon your own situation and sense of satisfaction with the amounts of your buys.  

Even our hypothetical poor person given above, many of the times he ONLY has $100 per month to be able to buy bitcoin, and that is if his discretionary comes in consistently in the regular way, but he is also going to have months that he has extra and other months he does not have enough, so those are reasons to make sure that his reserves and his floats are in a good place (and yeah, of course, I am presuming the emergency funds is also there, but the emergency fund is not being used for the purposes of filling in the variance of income/expenses from month to month). .. so if we assume the guy has all of his finances in order in regards to the reserve and float, that still may well leave him with the $100 per  month and questions about if he should use all of every month for buying BTC or maybe he might want to hold some in reserves.. but even if he had ONLY been buying bitcoin for a year or two, then he might have had only bought $1,200 to $2,400 worth of BTC during that time, so there surely still might not be enough BTC stacked up for him to really feel comfortable in waiting, and it might not even matter so much about the actual BTC price, and maybe he has to wait until he gets to around 4 years or more investing into BTC when he had invested $4,800 or more into BTC when he starts to feel that maybe he can start to become a bit more strategic regarding when to make his BTC purchases... .

and another thing is that investing $4,800 over 4 years, some of those purchases may well be more profitable than others, and maybe it is not ONLY the earliest purchases that are the most profitable, but there might be some recent purchases that are not very profitable, but having all of that in bitcoin, then at least the BTC is there, so that in the next 4 years, you have whatever you had during the first 4 years that had been able to grow completely (as long as you were not fucking around and withdrawing any of it) plus you wil end up having whatever new value that you ended up putting into bitcoin after the second 4 years, so maybe there will be various points in which you are able to increase your disposable income during that time, so maybe after 8 years, you might have more than $9,600 invested into bitcoin.. depending on your own abilities and/or luck in regards to your financial situation and your managing of your circumstances. including managing your bitcoin holdings and including perhaps having some appreciation that it could well end up being that some of your abilities to focus on accumulating BTC in your earlier years ended up giving you more options later down the road, so long as you did not end up losing whatever coins you had accumulated.


That is a bit misleading to say it like that... but yeah, there are various ways to increase your discretionary income by increasing your income, but you can also cut your expenses.. and sure there might be some times that you increase your income, but your expenses might go up too.. as part of the increasing of the income, there could be some costs with whatever ways you figure that you are going to be increasing your income... and so discretionary income is the amount of money that is left over after accounting for expenses.. and .. surely some expenses can also be deferred, even if they might not go away or reduced.. or maybe some expenses have costs for their deferral (such as penalties and interest), and there still could be some value in deferring expenses that might create additional expenses in deferring them... Maybe if you have a job, and there might be opportunties to work extra hours, and they might not even pay more, but they still result in extra pay.. maybe some jobs off of the books, might come up too for someone who is already involved in carrying out certain kinds of work and hearing about other opportunities.


They are not a no coiner if they are buying, even if it is small amounts, and from my definition they might not even be a low coiner, if they are buying $10 per month but it is as much as they can afford.. and they are being as aggressive as they are able to be.


We cannot assume that merely investing $10 per month is NOT overdoing it.   Of course, if they need that $10 per month for their expenses, then they might be overdoing it, because the $10 should be coming from discretionary income and not from money that they actually need.


That is true.. and also maybe the person who bought in 2019 was able to put together $10k of cash in order to invest into bitcoin, and the person in 2024 might even be in a better position to put together more cash, but he cannot put together $60k, and he is ONLY able to put together $20k, so a similarly situated guy in 2024 ends up only able to buy 0.3 BTC rather than being able to buy a whole BTC... not that it matters very much, because we can ONLY buy what we are able to buy, and surely there are fewer and fewer folks who are ever going to be able to accumulate a whole BTC, so they have to target some amount of BTC (sats) that they are able to target within their own budget, and maybe even after 10-20 years, they still might ONLY be able to accumulate a few million satoshis... 50 million satoshis is half of a BTC.


The extent to which you employ DCA, buy dips and/or lump sum methods for BTC accumulation is going to vary based on your individual factors, and truly including how long you have been into bitcoin accumulation, which means how many BTC have you already accumulated and what might be your BTC accumulation targets.  It is not necessarily obvious what might be the best choices, even though each of us should be trying our best to figure out what works for our own situation.


Why would lump sum become "the best?"  Surely if someone has a lump sum in front of them, they can still choose within the three categories of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips in order to figure out how to treat that lump sum amount that they have in front of them... and if someone might have $100 per week that they are usually investing based on their discretionary income, but then all of a sudden they get a $1k bonus, so then they can completely treat that $1k as part of their DCA.. they just buy right away, and maybe that is considered lump sum or it is considered to be just extra money that automatically goes into BTC, whether it is part of the regular income or it happens to be some extra income that happens to come in... ON the other hand, the extra amount could trigger some consideration regarding whether to invest all of it right away, to hold some for buying on dips and or to spread it out in order to include it within the upcoming DCA amounts, perhaps doubling the DCA amounts for the next 10 weeks or maybe even adding 20% to the DCA amounts for the next 50 weeks, and maybe how to treat the extra amount might have to do with how much BTC the person already has, but they might want to try to predict the direction of the BTC price, and so if they are thinking that the price might be coming down or staying flat, they might feel some advantage in spreading out their DCA or strategizing to buy on dips, however, if they are feeling particularly bullish, they might error on the side of buying most if not all of it right away... . And, the guy might end up being correct or not in terms of whatever strategy or strategies he chose to employ for the extra amount of dollars that he had ended up receiving.


Levels of aggressiveness should not be measured in absolute terms, but instead within the amount of discretionary income that you have, and so yeah a person with higher income could buy more BTC but that does not necessarily make him more aggressive than someone with lower income and who might be using all of his discretionary income to buy BTC.  Maybe we can take some extreme examples.

One guy has $100 per month of discretionary income and he uses all of it to buy BTC.. This guy is quite aggressive and maybe even bordering on over aggressiveness (especially if he miscalculates his expenses or if he does not have reserves in place).

Another guy has $2k per month of discretionary income and he invests around $100 per week into bitcoin, which might be considered moderate and maybe even whimpy.


This part is true.  The more organized that you are, the more aggressive you can afford to be... again within the terms of your own discretionary income, and you do not even need a completely stable source of income as long as you have your various back up funds in place... .but you will need some kind of a income that is coming in, even if it might not be stable.  Frequently we had described examples of guys who have varying income levels and varying expenses, so even if his income has a lot of variance, he might still be able to balance out those income/expense matters in order to still be aggressive within his own boundaries.

Shouldn't your 4 be a 6?  You have finished 6 days of pushups, not 4. Right?

Both opinions cannot be correct.  You either buy or you wait, and from my perspective, the ONLY way to prepare for UP is by buying bitcoin.  You do not prepare for UP by waiting.  Waiting is not a strategy that prepares you for up.

Maybe I should give an example?

Hypothetical poor person just found out about bitcoin, and he has an income of about $500 to $1,800 per month, with usual income of about $1k.  His expenses are usually between $700 and $1,200, but most of the time $900.  He has an emergency fund that is about $1k, a reserve fund and float that is around $600.  Right now, with these circumstances, what should he do?  Start buying BTC or wait for a dip that might or might not happen.

He cannot do both.  He has to choose which one is going to.  Right?


Why not learn about bitcoin as you go (like promise444c5 mentioned), and start out with $10 per week - or some other relatively low amount to get started and then figure out other details as you go.. what is the part that you need to learn about that is so important.  No one is saying to invest everything that a person has, whether we are talking about the hypothetical person above that I outlined or if you would like to present some other hypothetical person with circumstances that might justify a "waiting" rather than a getting started right away strategy. 

By the way, I had already mentioned that a variety of things could affect a tweaking of the BTC buying strategy, so I would imagine that a person who is actively involved in buying bitcoin weekly would be striving to spend at least a bit of time to get more in touch with his various finances and psychology (perhaps in line with the 9 factors), and perhaps the organizing of his finances is already going to put him in a much more solid situation and whatever the bitcoin does would be icing on the cake, especially if the timeline for investing might be 4-10 years or longer.

That is not even the same topic, since one question is getting started right away in terms of investing into bitcoin, and then another part would be whether adjustments might be chosen to be taken in regards to buying bitcoin somewhere down the line based on the size of the BTC stash that had been accumulated over the passage of time.

Now, you seem to be changing to some other topic that relates to adjustments to the purchasing times of bitcoin being made based on cashflows and budgeting kinds of considerations like that, which seems to be a different topic from what I had been attempting to describe in terms of getting in, getting started and then reassessing down the road.

Maybe along that same line of the initial considerations, there can be a status of poorness in which someone might be having difficulties figuring out how much discretionary income that he has in order to invest into bitcoin in the first place, so he might want to make sure that he gets through the whole month before buying bitcoin with whatever is extra at the end of the period (so then his new paycheck comes in and he buys bitcoin with whatever was left from the earlier check), but at the same time, if the guy is getting into bitcoin, then it might be more likely that he would also need to figure out his cashflows and his expenses, so even if he might have more difficulties in regards to figuring out his discretionary income levels in the first month or two, he might be able to put systems into place in which he is able to buy every week, even if he gets paid monthly, but he might have to makes sure that he builds up enough of a reserve (and emergency fund) while he is potentially becoming more regular with his BTC buys the might end up being every week.. but yeah, if he is not sure about his cashflows, the solution might be to spread out his buys over longer periods.. yet I tend to be a pretty BIG fan of attempting to get yourself into a situation where you are able to buy bitcoin every week, but yeah, you cannot employ those kinds of practices if you are not even sure if whatever money you have is going to get you through the month (or until your next paycheck)..

I guess I am trying to say get started and learn along the way, and maybe after accumulating BTC for a year or two, there might be some justification to start to adjust the strategy based on how much BTC you have been able to accumulate and based on your other financial matters, and so in some sense, it can be difficult to come straight into an investment (something like BTC) and not take a bit of time to establish a position, and since Wind_FURY was referring to poor people, so for poor people in particular there might not even need to be too many adjustments along the way, just keep buying as aggressively as you are able to without overdoing it... but the thing, even for poor people, there might be some recognition that after a year or two of accumulating BTC, the BTC stash might be starting to get relatively large as compared to other investments (or savings) that might have had previously been done.. .. yet also it could be that the amount put in is still less than the value of the stash, so there could be some variations in regards to how to consider and look at the stash depending on how much had been put in and the extent to which the stash may or may not be in profits... although some folks might get distracted by merely being in profits, so some learning might need to happen in regards to how large of a stash might be considered to be a large enough size in order to start to consider some possibilities of changing strategies that go beyond just continued, ongoing persistent and consistent buying of BTC (perhaps weekly).

I watched the 15-minute clip, and since it is about maths and sciences, then it kind of related to the thread - especially since we might have claims about whether bitcoin was discovered or invented.. .. so there might be some power in any kinds of claims that something is operating in accordance with some mathematical principles that hold constant through other parts of the universe, which there could be some truth  in some aspects of bitcoin

- even though in recent times, I have been hearing more and more about potential ways in which bitcoin might be subjected to breaking based on mining pools rather than miners controlling their hashes and/or the transactions contained theirin.. even though there has not been an attack yet, as far as we know.. .. but yeah, if miners (hashers) are not really being paid in transparent ways and they have nowhere to go, then couldn't we consider various kinds of 51% attacks.. not trying to spread any FUD...


FTFY - regarding contents, and I also fixed your font.. 

No need to yell at us.


What does it mean, though?

I fixed your font again.. to attempt to facilitate MOAR reasonableness.

Generally speaking, people will still tend to consider houses as assets rather than liabilities, and surely there are some kinds of houses that will have higher maintenance costs and/or taxes than others, and surely houses are considered to hold their value better than cars, since cars tend to be a depreciating asset if bought new, but sometimes a used car may hold its value or even gain in value if it is classic or a collector's item, so we still have to be careful if we try to generalize too much in regards to how much some thing that we buy might be considered an asset versus a liability, because something like a yacht could still be considered an asset, even if it costs a lot to maintain, and maybe more if we are putting it into service, but it could generate income too if we were able to rent it out in ways that ended up being profitable and NOT too inconvenient, in the case that we actually were to have a yacht... According to this article Michael Saylor owns two yachts and three houses and a Jet.. so those could be assets, but they are also liabilities in terms of how much maintenance and labor they likely take, even though the article says that Saylor charters out his yachts (or they are available for chartering)..