Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Will Donald Trump win 1,237 delegates?

There are but few more talked about numbers than it is the magic number of 1,237. There are talks that it could happen even if it is lower, but this is currently the number of delegates Donald Trump needs to win if he wants to secure his nomination as the Republican Presidential Candidate, prior to the GOP National Convention. So, will he reach it?

Few weeks ago (by FiveThirtyEight estimations at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/) he was 92% of target, but with good results in the recent primaries, he is now 97% of target, and following primaries should go in his favor. Currently, he is at 994 delegates won, so only 243 delegates short of his nomination.

Some still think that he will not reach it, and current talk that Hillary would easily defeat him in November is not going in his favor, as well as coalition between Ted Cruz and John Kasich in order to stop him from reaching 1,237 delegates. But, for months nothing is going in Trump's favor and he is still going towards nomination. Will he prevail? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-donald-trump-win-1-237-delegates/.

This market will be open till Indiana primaries following Tuesday, on which you can bet at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/. And, are there more similar markets that you would like to place your predictions on?

Who will win Eurovision semi-finals?

Eurovision Song Contest is already one of the most popular markets on Fairlay (you have odds for outright winner at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/), so it is time to offer you markets on both Semi Final winners as those semis are scheduled for May 10, and May 12, with final evening on May 15.

Besides France, Russia is the biggest favorite for the win in the end, so it is not a surprise that it is also by far the biggest favorite to win the first Semi Final in which Sergey Lazarev participates. Amongst other favorites are Malta and Armenia, so if you think that any of these two, or any other country could make a surprise, find great odds on them at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Second Semi Final will be much more interesting as there is no big favorite for the win, and almost all counties could close it. Still, the first two favorites are Australia and Ukraine, but Latvia and Bulgaria could also get plenty of votes. It is same with Serbia, or in fact any other country. Thus, you have great odds if you guess right the Semi Final 2 winner:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

What is your opinion on Eurovision 2016, who is your favorite, and would you like to have some additional markets?

Are Hillary and Trump on their ways to close Indiana primaries as well?

Another Tuesday, and another set of big wins for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as both Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are almost out of the race for their party nomination. And after five primaries held yesterday, following Tuesday will have only one, set in Indiana. Both parties will hold their primaries as Trump and Hillary continue their domination.

How serious Donald Trump is about winning Indiana shows the fact that he has already begun opening his wallet for the air war, spending more than $900,000 on TV and radio ads. So, Indiana is getting serious, as some think that it now the place where Trump can’t win the nomination but it’s where he can lose it. So, can Ted Cruz harm him at least there?

Cruz is hoping for a replay of Wisconsin, another Midwestern state where a united GOP front helped him defeat Trump on April 5, but Trump is still the one leading three most recent Indiana public polls. Winner of Indiana will likely emerge with at least 45 of the 57 delegates, thus May 3 is another important date, so place your own prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-republican-primary/.

Indiana Democratic Primary is not as important as Republican, but Hillary surely wants to confirm her nomination. Last night she lost only in the Rhode Island, and winning four other states she completely moved momentum on her side. How big that momentum is shows the fact that she is already moved her focus from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump.

So, can Bernie use that to win Indiana? Well, probably not, though he has bigger chances than he had in New York and four states he lost last night. It is mostly because Indiana has a large white population that could favor him, and that is why people think he can defeat Hillary here. But can he really do it, or will Hillary easily close another state? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on the Indiana primaries, and what other of primaries scheduled for May would you like to bet on?

Who will be the next U.N. Secretary-General? Irina Bokova, Helen Clark, Angela Merkel?

For the last year there was a lot of talk whether the next U.N. Secretary-General will be a woman and you already have an open market on that topic (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/) but it is time to get more specific and start talking about the name of the potential Ban Ki-Moon successor.

Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General. Thus, it is not surprise that the first favorite at the moment is Bulgarian Irina Bokova, currently Director-General of UNESCO.

Another big name recently added as a candidate, that is now the second favorite, is Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, is still not an official candidate but is one of the strongest potential one and thus she is ranked amongst the favorites as well.

First favorite amongst the male candidates is former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Guterres, while good chances are also given to Danilo Turk, former President of Slovenia. Still, there are rather big chances for a female to prevail so good chances are also given to potential candidates Kristalina Georgieva, and even Angela Merkel. Here is the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-u-n-secretary-general/.

So, there are plenty of candidates to place your bet on and all of them are currently with the great odds, and the next U.N. Secretary-General should be known by the end of the year. Who is your favorite?

Can Doland Trump win over 50% of votes in all five Tuesday primaries?

Another kind of Super Tuesday is ahead of us as five primaries will be held tomorrow, with the huge chances that we will see Super Trump winning all five of them in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Even the fact that Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced that they had reached a deal on a strategy to deny Trump the Republican nomination will hardly stop his delegate count from increasing once again. But how superb will Trump be?

Some think that his recent anger will increse his support so much that he will win all five countries tomorrow with more than 50% of votes. It is hardly to happen, but this 'Super Win' deserves the market that you now have open at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/trump-to-go-over-50-in-all-five-tuesday-primaries/.

So, what is your opinion? Donald Trump did win New York with 60%, so can he use that momentum to go over 50% in all five countries holding their primaries tomorrow? He is a huge favorite in all of them, but how far can he truly reach?

When will Segregated Witness be activated? Before, or after July 15?

This year is bringing the explosion of innovation in the Bitcoin software, and few days ago things moved even more forwards as Bitcoin core developer Pieter Wuille completed a long-awaited (or not so long) upgrade to the bitcoin protocol. It is named Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short.

How important this update is, show the comments that Segregated Witness might be the most significant improvement to the Bitcoin protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on. So, when it will be activated?

Well, three days ago, Wuille submitted a pull request that is proposal to merge SegWit into the Bitcoin Core's master branch. After this Review, it will be offered to the public through a new Bitcoin Core release. And then, it is only about miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

About two weeks after this locking, Segregated Witness is activated. And, this being trending topic in the Bitcoin community, you already have an idea when will this happen and now you also have an open market at Fairlay. Date set is July 15 and you only need to predict will the activation happen before or after it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-before-july-15/.

So, what is your opinion on this market, and what other Bitcoin related markets would you like to have created soon?

Austrian presidential election - Who will win it?

Following Sunday, Austria will hold a presidential election, with a run off scheduled for 22 May if no candidate manages to win an absolute majority in the first vote. This election will be dominated by the issue of the migration crisis, while it is also a key test of the relative standing of each of the main parties. So, who are the favorites for the next President?

Currently, all the talk is mostly about three candidates. Alexander Van der Bellen, the former Green party leader, appears to be leading the polls and he is followed by Norbert Hofer. Third in the polls is the independent Irmgard Griss, while other candidates are not given such the big chances.

So, it will be interesting to see who will replace Heinz Fischer, who served two terms in office. Both Griss and Van der Bellen are seen as liked and honest, while many think that Hofer shouldn’t be as popular as he is. Still, biggest chances to go to a run off are given to Van der Bellen and Hofer. Then anything can happen. Here is your market on this election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-presidential-election/.

Who is your favorite in this Austrian presidential election, and what other politic markets would you want to bet on?

Who will win the Rhode Island Democratic primary?

After both of them easily won New York primaries yesterday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump once again regained all the control in their parties, while stopping Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz. As Hillary’s nomination is almost confirmed, Trump is once again looking like a strong candidate. And all the following primaries are about to confirm that as well.

In fact, it is almost certain that Trump and Hillary will win all primaries held by both parties in five countries next Tuesday. Only primary that is even is Democratic one in the Rhode Island and thus you have an open market on it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-rhode-island-democratic-primary/.

Recent, but still rather rare, pools showed that the Rhode Island race between Hillary and Sanders is really tight. So, most people are certain that this is the only country that Sanders could win next Tuesday but others are not so sure that his voters didn’t give up already. And Hillary is going to campaign there on Saturday, after the great New York win.

Still, Rhode Island is white and middle class that suits Sanders, and it is semi closed primary which will benefit Sanders as well. All in all, it could be rather even primary and that means good odds on any of the sides that you chose to bet on.

Who will be 2016 TIME Person of the Year Winner? Hillary, Trump, Migrants, Soldiers?

“Europe’s most powerful leader is a refugee from a time and place where her power would have been unimaginable,“ wrote TIME magazine in December last year when explaining why Angela Merkel was their Person of the Year for 2015. Could we this year have the same sentence with World instead of Europe and Hillary Clinton instead of Angela Merkel?

In the year with US Presidential Election, the new US President could easily be TIME's Person of the Year. And Hillary Clinton is going towards that at the moment, and thus she is by far the first favorite in this market. She is followed with Donald Trump as a second favorite, and Ted Cruz as fifth, as they are both still in race for the next US President.

Person of the Year is an annual issue of the United States news magazine Time that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year". Because of this, group could once again be Person of the Year and both Migrants and Soldiers are amongst popular candidates.

Still, it is only April, so plenty of things could happen till December, thus option 'Other' could also be a good choice as we could have some winners out of the first five in our market. Maybe Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, or Pope Francis. Anyway, there are plenty of candidates, and odds (on all but Hillary Clinton) are superb so make your prediction at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/time-person-of-the-year-winner/.

Who is your favorite this year, and what other similar markets would you like to see created? And don't forget, you can put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.

Who will die and who will survive the Season 6 of Game of Thrones?

We are only one week away from Game of Thrones Season 6 premiere, and as everyone is talking about it, with lot of ‘Ifs’, it is time to offer you set of Game of Thrones markets. It is all about Valar morghulis, so you have eight markets on eight different characters, and you only need to predict right which of them will survive Season 6. Or die in it.

And for the first time, those deaths will be surprise for everyone as season five caught up with the books and began to introduce plot developments from beyond the five published novels. So, books can’t help you. Or, can they? And what is with teasers and trailers? Well, in a scary way they showed that everyone is in danger, even Tyrion and Daenerys.

Could even Cersei Lannister be in danger, or the worst things are behind her? Well, chances that she will die are small but she could surely influence some of the deaths. But, who will she go after? Probably after The High Sparrow whose chances to stay alive are not great, but also after the other queen, Margaery Tyrell. Wait, not the beautiful one.

The High Sparrow to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-high-sparrow-to-die-in-season-6-1/
Cersei Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/cersei-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/

Still, Natalie Dormer (who plays Margaery Tyrell) said that "Cersei is the least of Margaery's problems" in Season 6, so she is surely in huge problems and thus one of the favorites to die. At the same time, Jaime Lannister is one of those who should survive the following season but he already had enough problems to deserve market on his death.

Margaery Tyrell to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/margaery-tyrell-to-die-in-season-6/
Jaime Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jaime-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/

But Jamie’s life has been a joyful experience if we compare it to that of Theon Greyjoy. Is he finally free? Probably yes but he is still amongst those with higher chances to die in the following season. It is the same with his ‘best friend’ Ramsay Bolton who could do some nasty things after he finds out that both Reek and Sansa have left him.

Theon Greyjoy to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/theon-greyjoy-to-die-in-season-6/
Ramsay Bolton to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ramsay-bolton-to-die-in-season-6/

As she is probably the only person who can bring John Snow back, Melisandre could have important role in Season 6. But could playing with fire and dark side cost her life? Well, she is far away from the safe ones. And, sadly for him, it is almost sure that Jorah Mormont won’t survive the following season. Or could he make a surprise by staying alive?

Melisandre to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/melisandre-to-die-in-season-6/
Jorah Mormont to die Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jorah-mormont-to-die-in-season-6/

What is your opinion on all the possible deaths in the following season? Who will survive and who will die? And, would you like to have the same market created for some other characters, or do you want to have some other Game of Thrones markets? We are only one week away from Season 6, so place your predictions and enjoy it. Valar morghulis!