Prediction Markets on Fairlay

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will win the French presidential election? Alain Juppe? Nicolas Sarkozy? Marine Le Pen?

Couple of months ago, Politico had a great article about the 2017 French presidential election campaign titled ''Art of comeback in French politics: First, write a book'' in which it is noted that the next years' campaign is starting as a grand book tour. And, interestingly, it is easy to compare this 'book tour' with the chances they are given in a year from now.

At the moment, the first favorite at the French presidential election (scheduled to be held in April and May 2017) is Alain Juppe, Mayor of Bordeaux and former Prime Minister, who is given around 40% to become the President. At the same time, he has written two books since the summer of 2014, and intends to publish two more by the end of this year.

So, with this in mind, it is not a surprise that the second favorite is former president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose book ''France for Life'' has been at the top of France’s best-seller lists. Okay, let’s get serious a bit as the current president and the third favorite to win (re-)election is Francois Hollande who is all but a great writer, though he did write as well.



But the current President has also lost the political capital built up after the Paris attacks, while National Fronte leader Marine Le Pen is also taking time to regroup so she is not given huge chances at the moment. It is similar with the current Prime Minister Manuel Valls, with only 10% of chances, still more than anyone out of these five candidates.

French people surely like to read so it will be interesting to see how many books in the following 12 months will those most important candidates publish, and how will that influence their campaign and election results. But, till then, don’t miss the chance to use the great odds Fairlay offers on any of these writers, ups, candidates at the French election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.

What is your opinion on this Presidential election, and what other European politics markets you want to see created?

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[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will be Palme d'Or Winner at the following Cannes 2016 Film Festival?

The initial lineup for the 69th French film festival has been announced yesterday, including 20 films screening in competition. This year’s Cannes is scheduled to be held from 11 to 22 May 2016, with the winners being announced on the last day. So, till then you will have an open market on Fairlay for the Palme d'Or Winner:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/palme-dor-winner-1/.

First favorite at the moment is movie ‘Sieranevada’ by Romanian film director and screenwriter Cristi Puiu who earlier both  won and was nominated for ‘Un Certain Regard Award’ in Cannes. But still, he is far from a huge favorite as this year’s competition selection in one of the strongest in recent years.



Puiu is followed by ‘Julieta’, Pedro Almodovar’s latest drama that’s already been released to positive reviews in Spain. New Jim Jamursh’s low-key drama ‘Paterson’ is also ranked high, as well as the movie ‘I, Daniel Blake’ by Ken Loach who previously won the Palme d’Or for ‘The Wind That Shakes the Barley’.

Xavier Dolan’s latest film, ‘Juste la fin du monde’ will premiere in competition, as well as Jeff Nichols’ drama ‘Loving’ about an interracial marriage in 50s America. Those two movies, together with Cristian Mungiu’s movie ‘Bacalaureat’, are currently among the first seven favorites for this year’s Palme d'Or Winner.

Some of your favorite directors, or actors, are probably in competition as well, and if they are not included amongst the top contenders you can use the great odds on the option ‘Other’ that covers all the other movies. Anyway, it is less than a month till one of the most popular Film Festivals so you have enough time to predict your favorite.

[GMK]

Fairlay website is down, not accessible

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will die and who will survive the Season 6 of Game of Thrones?

We are only one week away from Game of Thrones Season 6 premiere, and as everyone is talking about it, with lot of ‘Ifs’, it is time to offer you set of Game of Thrones markets. It is all about Valar morghulis, so you have eight markets on eight different characters, and you only need to predict right which of them will survive Season 6. Or die in it.

And for the first time, those deaths will be surprise for everyone as season five caught up with the books and began to introduce plot developments from beyond the five published novels. So, books can’t help you. Or, can they? And what is with teasers and trailers? Well, in a scary way they showed that everyone is in danger, even Tyrion and Daenerys.

Could even Cersei Lannister be in danger, or the worst things are behind her? Well, chances that she will die are small but she could surely influence some of the deaths. But, who will she go after? Probably after The High Sparrow whose chances to stay alive are not great, but also after the other queen, Margaery Tyrell. Wait, not the beautiful one.

The High Sparrow to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-high-sparrow-to-die-in-season-6-1/
Cersei Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/cersei-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/

Still, Natalie Dormer (who plays Margaery Tyrell) said that "Cersei is the least of Margaery's problems" in Season 6, so she is surely in huge problems and thus one of the favorites to die. At the same time, Jaime Lannister is one of those who should survive the following season but he already had enough problems to deserve market on his death.

Margaery Tyrell to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/margaery-tyrell-to-die-in-season-6/
Jaime Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jaime-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/

But Jamie’s life has been a joyful experience if we compare it to that of Theon Greyjoy. Is he finally free? Probably yes but he is still amongst those with higher chances to die in the following season. It is the same with his ‘best friend’ Ramsay Bolton who could do some nasty things after he finds out that both Reek and Sansa have left him.

Theon Greyjoy to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/theon-greyjoy-to-die-in-season-6/
Ramsay Bolton to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ramsay-bolton-to-die-in-season-6/

As she is probably the only person who can bring John Snow back, Melisandre could have important role in Season 6. But could playing with fire and dark side cost her life? Well, she is far away from the safe ones. And, sadly for him, it is almost sure that Jorah Mormont won’t survive the following season. Or could he make a surprise by staying alive?

Melisandre to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/melisandre-to-die-in-season-6/
Jorah Mormont to die Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jorah-mormont-to-die-in-season-6/

What is your opinion on all the possible deaths in the following season? Who will survive and who will die? And, would you like to have the same market created for some other characters, or do you want to have some other Game of Thrones markets? We are only one week away from Season 6, so place your predictions and enjoy it. Valar morghulis!

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will be 2016 TIME Person of the Year Winner? Hillary, Trump, Migrants, Soldiers?

“Europe’s most powerful leader is a refugee from a time and place where her power would have been unimaginable,“ wrote TIME magazine in December last year when explaining why Angela Merkel was their Person of the Year for 2015. Could we this year have the same sentence with World instead of Europe and Hillary Clinton instead of Angela Merkel?

In the year with US Presidential Election, the new US President could easily be TIME's Person of the Year. And Hillary Clinton is going towards that at the moment, and thus she is by far the first favorite in this market. She is followed with Donald Trump as a second favorite, and Ted Cruz as fifth, as they are both still in race for the next US President.

Person of the Year is an annual issue of the United States news magazine Time that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year". Because of this, group could once again be Person of the Year and both Migrants and Soldiers are amongst popular candidates.

Still, it is only April, so plenty of things could happen till December, thus option 'Other' could also be a good choice as we could have some winners out of the first five in our market. Maybe Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, or Pope Francis. Anyway, there are plenty of candidates, and odds (on all but Hillary Clinton) are superb so make your prediction at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/time-person-of-the-year-winner/.

Who is your favorite this year, and what other similar markets would you like to see created? And don't forget, you can put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will win the Rhode Island Democratic primary?

After both of them easily won New York primaries yesterday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump once again regained all the control in their parties, while stopping Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz. As Hillary’s nomination is almost confirmed, Trump is once again looking like a strong candidate. And all the following primaries are about to confirm that as well.

In fact, it is almost certain that Trump and Hillary will win all primaries held by both parties in five countries next Tuesday. Only primary that is even is Democratic one in the Rhode Island and thus you have an open market on it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-rhode-island-democratic-primary/.

Recent, but still rather rare, pools showed that the Rhode Island race between Hillary and Sanders is really tight. So, most people are certain that this is the only country that Sanders could win next Tuesday but others are not so sure that his voters didn’t give up already. And Hillary is going to campaign there on Saturday, after the great New York win.

Still, Rhode Island is white and middle class that suits Sanders, and it is semi closed primary which will benefit Sanders as well. All in all, it could be rather even primary and that means good odds on any of the sides that you chose to bet on.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Austrian presidential election - Who will win it?

Following Sunday, Austria will hold a presidential election, with a run off scheduled for 22 May if no candidate manages to win an absolute majority in the first vote. This election will be dominated by the issue of the migration crisis, while it is also a key test of the relative standing of each of the main parties. So, who are the favorites for the next President?

Currently, all the talk is mostly about three candidates. Alexander Van der Bellen, the former Green party leader, appears to be leading the polls and he is followed by Norbert Hofer. Third in the polls is the independent Irmgard Griss, while other candidates are not given such the big chances. 

So, it will be interesting to see who will replace Heinz Fischer, who served two terms in office. Both Griss and Van der Bellen are seen as liked and honest, while many think that Hofer shouldn’t be as popular as he is. Still, biggest chances to go to a run off are given to Van der Bellen and Hofer. Then anything can happen. Here is your market on this election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-presidential-election/.

Who is your favorite in this Austrian presidential election, and what other politic markets would you want to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

When will Segregated Witness be activated? Before, or after July 15?

This year is bringing the explosion of innovation in the Bitcoin software, and few days ago things moved even more forwards as Bitcoin core developer Pieter Wuille completed a long-awaited (or not so long) upgrade to the bitcoin protocol. It is named Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short.

How important this update is, show the comments that Segregated Witness might be the most significant improvement to the Bitcoin protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on. So, when it will be activated?

Well, three days ago, Wuille submitted a pull request that is proposal to merge SegWit into the Bitcoin Core's master branch. After this Review, it will be offered to the public through a new Bitcoin Core release. And then, it is only about miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

About two weeks after this locking, Segregated Witness is activated. And, this being trending topic in the Bitcoin community, you already have an idea when will this happen and now you also have an open market at Fairlay. Date set is July 15 and you only need to predict will the activation happen before or after it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-before-july-15/.

So, what is your opinion on this market, and what other Bitcoin related markets would you like to have created soon?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Can Doland Trump win over 50% of votes in all five Tuesday primaries?

Another kind of Super Tuesday is ahead of us as five primaries will be held tomorrow, with the huge chances that we will see Super Trump winning all five of them in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Even the fact that Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced that they had reached a deal on a strategy to deny Trump the Republican nomination will hardly stop his delegate count from increasing once again. But how superb will Trump be?

Some think that his recent anger will increse his support so much that he will win all five countries tomorrow with more than 50% of votes. It is hardly to happen, but this 'Super Win' deserves the market that you now have open at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/trump-to-go-over-50-in-all-five-tuesday-primaries/.

So, what is your opinion? Donald Trump did win New York with 60%, so can he use that momentum to go over 50% in all five countries holding their primaries tomorrow? He is a huge favorite in all of them, but how far can he truly reach?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will be the next U.N. Secretary-General? Irina Bokova, Helen Clark, Angela Merkel?

For the last year there was a lot of talk whether the next U.N. Secretary-General will be a woman and you already have an open market on that topic (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/) but it is time to get more specific and start talking about the name of the potential Ban Ki-Moon successor.

Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General. Thus, it is not surprise that the first favorite at the moment is Bulgarian Irina Bokova, currently Director-General of UNESCO.

Another big name recently added as a candidate, that is now the second favorite, is Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, is still not an official candidate but is one of the strongest potential one and thus she is ranked amongst the favorites as well.

First favorite amongst the male candidates is former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Guterres, while good chances are also given to Danilo Turk, former President of Slovenia. Still, there are rather big chances for a female to prevail so good chances are also given to potential candidates Kristalina Georgieva, and even Angela Merkel. Here is the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-u-n-secretary-general/.

So, there are plenty of candidates to place your bet on and all of them are currently with the great odds, and the next U.N. Secretary-General should be known by the end of the year. Who is your favorite?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Are Hillary and Trump on their ways to close Indiana primaries as well?

Another Tuesday, and another set of big wins for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as both Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are almost out of the race for their party nomination. And after five primaries held yesterday, following Tuesday will have only one, set in Indiana. Both parties will hold their primaries as Trump and Hillary continue their domination.

How serious Donald Trump is about winning Indiana shows the fact that he has already begun opening his wallet for the air war, spending more than $900,000 on TV and radio ads. So, Indiana is getting serious, as some think that it now the place where Trump can’t win the nomination but it’s where he can lose it. So, can Ted Cruz harm him at least there?

Cruz is hoping for a replay of Wisconsin, another Midwestern state where a united GOP front helped him defeat Trump on April 5, but Trump is still the one leading three most recent Indiana public polls. Winner of Indiana will likely emerge with at least 45 of the 57 delegates, thus May 3 is another important date, so place your own prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-republican-primary/.

Indiana Democratic Primary is not as important as Republican, but Hillary surely wants to confirm her nomination. Last night she lost only in the Rhode Island, and winning four other states she completely moved momentum on her side. How big that momentum is shows the fact that she is already moved her focus from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump.

So, can Bernie use that to win Indiana? Well, probably not, though he has bigger chances than he had in New York and four states he lost last night. It is mostly because Indiana has a large white population that could favor him, and that is why people think he can defeat Hillary here. But can he really do it, or will Hillary easily close another state? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on the Indiana primaries, and what other of primaries scheduled for May would you like to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will win Eurovision semi-finals?

Eurovision Song Contest is already one of the most popular markets on Fairlay (you have odds for outright winner at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/), so it is time to offer you markets on both Semi Final winners as those semis are scheduled for May 10, and May 12, with final evening on May 15.

Besides France, Russia is the biggest favorite for the win in the end, so it is not a surprise that it is also by far the biggest favorite to win the first Semi Final in which Sergey Lazarev participates. Amongst other favorites are Malta and Armenia, so if you think that any of these two, or any other country could make a surprise, find great odds on them at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Second Semi Final will be much more interesting as there is no big favorite for the win, and almost all counties could close it. Still, the first two favorites are Australia and Ukraine, but Latvia and Bulgaria could also get plenty of votes. It is same with Serbia, or in fact any other country. Thus, you have great odds if you guess right the Semi Final 2 winner: 

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

What is your opinion on Eurovision 2016, who is your favorite, and would you like to have some additional markets?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Donald Trump win 1,237 delegates?
 
There are but few more talked about numbers than it is the magic number of 1,237. There are talks that it could happen even if it is lower, but this is currently the number of delegates Donald Trump needs to win if he wants to secure his nomination as the Republican Presidential Candidate, prior to the GOP National Convention. So, will he reach it?

Few weeks ago (by FiveThirtyEight estimations at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/) he was 92% of target, but with good results in the recent primaries, he is now 97% of target, and following primaries should go in his favor. Currently, he is at 994 delegates won, so only 243 delegates short of his nomination.

Some still think that he will not reach it, and current talk that Hillary would easily defeat him in November is not going in his favor, as well as coalition between Ted Cruz and John Kasich in order to stop him from reaching 1,237 delegates. But, for months nothing is going in Trump's favor and he is still going towards nomination. Will he prevail? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-donald-trump-win-1-237-delegates/.

This market will be open till Indiana primaries following Tuesday, on which you can bet at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/. And, are there more similar markets that you would like to place your predictions on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Austrian presidential election, second round run-off: Can Alexander Van der Bellen stop Norbert Hofer?

A week ago presidential election was held in Austria, but no candidate received a majority of the vote so a second round run-off is scheduled for May 22. Second round will be really interesting as we are left with Norbert Hofer, the first round winner of the Freedom Party of Austria, and Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Austrian Greens contesting as an independent, placed second in the first round.

Norbert Hofer got surprisingly huge 36% after the first round, leaving Van der Bellen at 21%, but he is still far from winning position, as recent poll gives them 50%-50% chances. Norbert Hofer has already threatened to dissolve parliament before 2018 elections, so Austria is braced for political turmoil with fears that victory for a rightwing populist and gun-carrying candidate could trigger snap elections.

But, partly because of claims that he protects himself in the uncertain times of the refugee crisis by carrying a Glock gun, Norbert Hofer scored overwhelming victories in all of Austria’s states apart from Vienna. So, can Van der Bellen, an outsider candidate who ran for office without the official endorsement of the Green party and has criticized the Austrian government’s cap on asylum seekers, stop Hofer from becoming the next President?

In Van der Bellen’s favor goes the fact that the established parties will do their best to stop a rightwing populist from coming to power, but even with that it is hard to make any prognosis. And momentum is with Norbert Hofer whose party will try to frame the following election around the refugees question. Anyway, it will be the first time since 1945 that the president has not come from the two centrist parties, and you can predict at Fairlay who will it be:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-election-next-president/.

Fairlay market is even at the moment, but what is your opinion on this election? And what are similar markets considering politics that you would like to place your predictions on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?

Craig  Steven Wright reveals himself as Satoshi Nakamoto! This was worldwide top story this morning, this time announced by BBC, GQ, and The Economist. But, is he really? The Economist followed well with the note ‘Mr Wright could well be Mr Nakamoto, but nagging questions remain’.  Wright tried to present some proofs but they don’t look strong at all, so will he follow them with the stronger ones, and confirm that he is indeed Satoshi Nakomoto?

“We have again asked Mr Wright to provide additional information so we can independently verify that he is in possession of the cryptographic keys that would prove that he is Mr Nakamoto. We have requested that he provide a corrected version of his initial proof. And we have asked him to use private keys he supposedly has in his possession to sign the first paragraph of our first article, including the date, which would be even better proof of his identity,” was written later today on The Economist, as Craig Wright’s claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto came under fire.

So, can Mr Wright prove that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Mr Nakamoto should have? “If someone were to successfully sign with the Satoshi PGP key, it would not prove that he is Satoshi,” said Jerry Brito, the executive director of Coin Center. But, it would certainly be the first step and, as this is trending topic in Bitcoin community, you now have an open market on Fairlay ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-has-satoshi-nakamotos-private-pgp-key/.


Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?

Other evidence that Craig Steven Wright is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto could be proving that he is the miner of early blocks. In his today’ blog post Wright said that he does indeed control the key for block 9 and gave a step-by-step explanation of how this can be proven. He has also demonstrated this verification in person to The Economist - both for block 9, and block 1, though such demonstrations can be stage-managed.

The Economist writer says that “as far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least for block 9”. Problem is that Wright doesn’t want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Nakamoto. But, if he wants to prove that he is the real Satoshi, he will need to do this as well, so here is another Fairlay market – ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-is-the-miner-of-block-1/.

What is your opinion on this Craig Steven Wright topic? Do you think that he is a smart fraud, or he can really provide some of the proof? But even if he provides some of them, will that be enough to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Many questions are currently open, plenty of people want to close them as soon as possible, so hurry up to place your predictions at Fairlay, and suggest your own markets considering this, or any other relevant topic.

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Will Gary Lineker keep his word and present Match of the Day in his underwear?

Last night Leicester City defied 5000-1 odds to become Premier League champion and thus one of the most beautiful sport stories ever got its perfect ending. Plenty of their fans made huge money by using these incredible odds, but it is now time for their most popular fan to keep his words:



Former England football captain Gary Lineker, who has been presenting BBC TV’s principal football programme Match of the Day since 1999, made the pledge that he will do the first MOTD of the next season in just his undies, if his former and local club makes the most unlikely of championship wins. Leicester did it, so it is time for him to keep his word.

In March Lineker confirmed he will remain true to his word and appear before millions of television viewers in his underwear. Now you have an open market at Fairlay will he, on August 13, indeed present MOTD in his underwear, but note that it is resolved as No if he wears it over his trousers:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gary-lineker-to-present-motd-in-his-underwear/.


Is Jose Mourinho going to coach Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Manchester United next season?

As football season is getting towards its end, there is plenty of transfer talk, and it is not only about players but also about managers. With Jose Mourinho being free since December, his next club is one of the trending topics in football community. From the biggest world clubs, to some national teams, to even Leeds United’s boss asking him to show how big he is by training club that doesn’t have world's top players.

But, after months of talks, it looks like Jose Mourinho will once again be in the English Premier League as he is close to making a deal with Manchester United, and there are talks that it could be confirmed even this week. But, Paris Saint-Germain wants him as its manager as well, as plenty of clubs do, so now you can make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jose-mourinhos-next-club/.



And, if he comes to Manhcester United, will he be followed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic  who in March joked that he will stay at Paris Saint-Germain if his statue replaces the Eiffel Tower. So, his chances to stay in France are small, but where will he go next? Manchester United is indeed his first option, but plenty of English Premier League clubs are as well.

Arsenal and Chelsea are not big surprises, but it is a bit of surprise that West Ham want him in its team. If he doesn't go to England, there are even chances that he could leave Europe for some big money in China or in one of the MSL teams. Anyway, there are chances that he and Jose Mourinho will be in Manchester United next season, but you have great odds if you guess right Zlatan's next club, weather it is United or any other:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/zlatan-ibrahimovics-next-club/.

What is your opinion on these markets, and what other Football Specials would you like to have created at Fairlay?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Ted Cruz is out, so will John Kasich drop out before June?

Last night it was officially confirmed: There will be no “Stop Trump” candidate, not after his 15-plus-point win in Indiana.

Donald Trump won Indiana Primary with 53.3%, Ted Cruz dropped out of presidential race after losing Indiana with 36.6%, and the last man standing against Trump is John Kasich who won 7.6% last night. So, if Cruz dropped out of race, why is Kasich, who won in total only 153 delegates, staying in it?

“Tonight’s results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich’s campaign plans,” read the memo from Kasich chief strategist John Weaver. “Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention.”



Since last night it is clear that Trump will win nomination before open convention, so Kasich can give up as well. Will he?

He has only won one contest, his home state of Ohio, and is currently in fourth place in the delegate race. Even Marco Rubio, who left the race in March, still has more delegates than Kasich. Still, it looks like he doesn’t want to give up before Trump wins 1,237 delegates. Many say he is delusional.

And Trump is now 190 delegates short, with four primaries more in May. Thus the question is, will John Kasich drop out before June and ending primaries, or he will stay till the end? Here is Fairlay market for you to place your prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-john-kasich-drop-out-before-june-1/.

What is your opinion on John Kasich, is he really delusional? And what other Presidential markets you want to bet on?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

With both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race after losing Indiana Primary, it is sure that Donald Trump will be Republican Candidate for the President. So, now it is time to reopen question of his Vice Presidential Candidate.

If someone is unpredictable then it is Donald Trump, so at the moment all the different names are in contest. Especially with the fact that Trump's inner circle remains devoid of establishment types, so we quickly get into a situation where the people talking don't know much and the people who do know aren't talking. But, few names are talked about.

"I think Chris Christie is fantastic," Trump said recently. And no one has risked more with his support for Trump than Christie, who has been roundly mocked and dismissed by the GOP establishment for the decision, and two of them look like a good match. But the problem could be that Christie doesn't add a ton to the Trump ticket. Does Trump care?

But if Trump wanted to add a ton to his ticket, Joni Ernst would be a great option. She has been critical of Trump's comments about women but she is a gifted communicator and someone who might help sell Trump to the Midwestern voters he badly needs if he wants to be competitive with Clinton. So, could she be the perfect choice?

And we also have people who recently raced against him, like John Kasich who gave up just last night and who was on rather friendly terms with Trump throughout the race. Or Marco Rubio who could help Trump with outreach to establishment Republicans and help Trump to avoid an electoral disaster in the Hispanic community.

And there are few more popular names like Newt Gingrich or Susana Martinez, or even Ben Carson and Jeff Sessions. Anyway, all is far from certain so any option on your Vice Presidential Candidate offers great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate/.

So, who is your favorite for the Republican Candidate for Vice President, and do you want some similar markets created?

[FairlayBTCPredictions]

Is Bernie Sanders about to win West Virginia Democratic primary? Or can Hillary prevail?

After win in Indiana this Tuesday, Bernie Sanders is positive he can win West Virginia Democratic primary following Tuesday. He is a rather big favorite, but can Hillary prevail as recent polls show that she is not without chances, as many think?

Metro News West Virginia Poll announced today that in the Democratic presidential race, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters backed Sanders, 43 percent said they supported Hillary Clinton, and 11 percent were not sure.

As it was all year, Sanders’ strength is among people between the ages of 18 and 34, and he hopes there will be a high turnout with young voters. But his other strength is Donald Trump who tweeted today: ‘Crooked Hillary has ZERO leadership ability. As Bernie Sanders says, she has bad judgment. Constantly playing the women's card - it is sad!’

So, it looks like Trump can help Bernie win West Virginia. At the same time, the fact that West Virginia holds semi-open primaries goes in Hillary’s favor. Anyway, Bernie is the favorite but those who think Hillary could prevail, despite being attacked by Donald Trump, have great odds on her win at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-west-virginia-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on this primary, and what other US Presidential Election markets would you like to see created?

[martha5dool]

Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses)