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My overall prediction for the next 48 hours is a test close to $400, a lot will hinge on whether or not the support around $400 dries up or not. I don't think it will so some serious selling will have to occur to break through that. At this point I think its important to ask how far the downside really goes. If you think that we may break $400 and would rebuy at $375 is that worth the risk or is that more likely then a short term bounce to $570 ish? I think a short term bounce is more likely so would rather take profit on a long than risk being left behind on an uncertain short.
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Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.
Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%
Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266: $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%
Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%
Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.
Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.
I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.
Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter. Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price? Probably in the $300s? or less? Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more... Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena... so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying. His average buy in will be in single digits maybe mid double digits as are a lot of the people who have been around for a while. Hell I only started buying in summer 2013 but with a bit of trading and selling a nice chunk over $1000 even my average buy in is double digits. There are many here that will have taken out their original investment and be sitting in free coins. This is obvious by the way people speak. Its obvious when someone is sitting on a $30,000 investment that is currently worth closer to $20,000. The panic is obvious as they keep saying they're buying on the way down and they do not see it going any lower. Although I would like to see a rise again Im more than happy for the blood in the streets and the chance to pick up some really cheap BTC again. Its mainly noobs and dreamers who bought BTC anywhere near $1200 and most will have sold on the way down. The upside then is clear and obvious but I do feel a bloodbath will ensue in the meantime. |
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We've broken the previous low...
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Well at least bitcoin isnt boring at the moment  Still dont want to trade it while the Chinese are playing silly buggers. |
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I'm thinking that this is just going to play out the same way as each exchange makes their announcement. Can either sit up all night and wait for each one or just hodl. Think I might just hodl this time.
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Will we retest previous low?
We're already doing so We're not really that close to $400  |
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Will we retest previous low?
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Massive dumps on Stamp...
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Might as well just write China off and move on. I did that last year before Christmas. Chinese government don't want bitcoin, it is very obvious indeed. The Chinese government will get what they want, you can be certain of that.
Yes but when trading you cant just write it off if its still dictating the price.. |
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News or are we just dumping for fun again ?
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Im sure the English translations not great but they are clearly confused.
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So now $15 price movements are classed as significant?
When they are as much as the movement in the last 12 hours, yes. Still wouldn't agree, what is significant about a 3% price change and what does it tell you about the market. |
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So now $15 price movements are classed as significant?
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Such dumping. China needs to just leave Could be a bear trap. Im hoping to pick some more up at a lower price but I expect this to bounce. |
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Back again with super low volumes. When will we see this increase ? Just seems so easy to manipulate atm.
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This also leads to 50x new daily altcoins being made. The altcoin section is full of bullshit nowadays.
Earlier the Newbies were not even permitted to post outside the Beginners section. When did the rules changed? It was fairly recently, bring back newbie jail I say. |
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No link or specifications?
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Something is being with held thats for sure and I doubt we will ever find out the real truth.
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If it's not listed by default at the top of BitcoinWisdom then it isn't the same thing I'm referring to.
What does this mean ? Even a successful NY exchange could take a while to topple some of the big players. |
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Lots of noobs posting nonsense...
At least give a real reason as to why you think that someone is dumping 5000BTC into the market?
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