Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dr. LY]

Cheer up guys Bitcoin still has a lot of gas left in the tank. No way these big time BTC startups don't at least punch back.

Yeah, and people still have guts to call this to be possible 2011 with such difference in fundamentals. I could cry reading that, really.

Are the "fundamentals" really that different or just at a different scale now with different "players" in the game?  I think there is something to the patterns.  

If we get to $10,000+ by late Summer am I allowed to come back and say, "I told you so?"    You always seem fairly bullish though Seleme so I assume you think it is doable, no?

I'm not sure about 10 000 or any price in some specific time stamp but I'm fairly bullish about Bitcoin generally, and in same time I'm not afraid of it going to any price. As there is money to be made trading crypto at any price.

And yeah, fundamentals are different. Back in the summer of 2013. we had no idea if USA would ban bitcoin completely, for example, that was my (and most of other people) main fear.

And now we are worried about China banning it.  There were exchanges failing then.  There are exchanges failing now.  We are just at a different scale but things haven't changed that much.

Not exactly. There is no comparison to the failing of Gox, which got national news coverage and undermined faith in exchanges as a whole. And its not that we are worried china is banning it, we're almost sure that China is banning it.

[billyjoeallen]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

[Hypnoise]

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

[virtualfaqs]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

Cheer up people.  Take a look at this chart from the "other TA" thread and realize that we are in such a great position right now.  The trendline is almost freakishly identical to the trend from 2010 -2011 to the trend we are on now from 2013 till now.  If it stays on the same path we are looking at $10,000 or even more easily on the next rise in price.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6032075#msg6032075

I am not worried just displeased that Pboc is so shadowy with the rulings.. but fiat has it slaves.

April 15th will come and go. The price might not move much before then, or up a little perhaps, but when everyone realizes that Bitcoin isn't going to "zero" things will get interesting once again.  

The sheep will find another reason to panic sell after april 15. I'm sure.

if you sell before the 15th then buy back after = no taxes or something!? lolll =)

No, the rumored China "Ban" day lands on April 15 which is also US Tax day.

[billyjoeallen]

We need a really big whale or a whole a pod of medium whales. We can't bootstrap a turnaround taking each other's money. Even a Cyprus event would need a catalyst.

It's an axiom that unless something changes, the situation won't change. If $400 support isn't tested on higher volume, there will likely be no trend reversal for months. We'll go sideways. If $400 doesn't hold, we'll plummet until hidden support is found somewhere in the depths. This is gut check time.

What happened July last year, when price went from 65 to 90? What had changed then?
I reckon the only things that had changed were expectations, from "it will go down" to "it will go up". It was enough.

The equivalent of $65 to $90 would be from $400 to only $553 and then five months of mostly trickle-up sideways action before the next rally. That's a realistic possibility, but I'm not certain if it's probable. 

[Jeezy911]

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

selling lower than bought. I never understood this concept. I call it losing money.

[BBmodBB]

Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

here i am! i'd love to support the cause, however i've found that the bitcoin community is at least as greedy&scammy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many BTC you still got?lolll

[Dr. LY]

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

[billyjoeallen]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

i want to support the cause, however i've found that this community is at least as greedy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many you still got?lolll

There's nothing wrong with being greedy. There's something very wrong with stacking the deck and playing a rigged game like Wall Street does. Bitcoin is as free market as it gets. The risks and opportunities are much greater. No Bernanke put. No high frequency front-running. No government bail-outs.

Wall street is full of suckers and sharks. Bitcoin is full of minnows and whales. Degenerate gamblers are found everywhere.

[ShroomsKit]

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

So basically people are panic selling because of a rumour of an event that may take the price down which results in the price going down and when it goes below a certain point the panic sellers will panic sell because the price went down too much. And what do you do when the price goes down a lot? You make sure it goes down even more.
Sounds like a smart group of people.

[Dr. LY]

Explanation

That wall makes me feel a little better.

[BBmodBB]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

i want to support the cause, however i've found that this community is at least as greedy as the Wall street bandits~ maybe even worse!!! =O *how many you still got?lolll

There's nothing wrong with being greedy. There's something very wrong with stacking the deck and playing a rigged game like Wall Street does. Bitcoin is as free market as it gets. The risks and opportunities are much greater. No Bernanke put. No high frequency front-running. No government bail-outs.

Wall street is full of suckers and sharks. Bitcoin is full of minnows and whales. Degenerate gamblers are found everywhere.

four legs good two legs baaaaad >>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5110BLvXd0

;-)

[billyjoeallen]

Cheer up guys Bitcoin still has a lot of gas left in the tank. No way these big time BTC startups don't at least punch back.

Yeah, and people still have guts to call this to be possible 2011 with such difference in fundamentals. I could cry reading that, really.

Possible isn't the same as probable. We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are. We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

[JorgeStolfi]

This article (dated today) seems to doubt whether the PBoC bank blockade is real:
http://www.techweb.com.cn/internet/2014-04-03/2024364.shtml
However the Google translation is extra garbled
"Bitcoin central bank ban the actual situation is questionable transactions chaos spawned free services [...]"
and I cannot tell whether the reporter knows more than we do, or less.

[octaft]

Some of you people are talking as if you are shocked that it didn't go straight to 20k. You had to realize this was a bubble, it's happened so many times. Those of you who didn't sell on the way up got greedy, and are getting burned for it. Now you face a tough choice: wait it out and hope that this isn't a complete deflation back to $10 or $50 or whatever, or take the profit you have remaining. If you bought at $1000, why in holy hell would you do that? You could have at least waited for a correction -- the first one went down to about $400 (EDIT: okay technically the 2nd one, 1st down to $700, even still the point remains), and even if you didn't catch the bottom, you could have been buying all the way down and gotten in for an average of about $700. Buying that high shows a complete lack of patience. Suck it up that you missed that particular ride, and wait for the pullback.

As for the people on the other side, saying this is the end of bitcoin or bitcoin being a failure or a scam, cut that shit out. Bitcoin does not need to be worth anywhere near 4-5 figures to be a success. The technology itself is amazing whether bitcoin is worth $10 or $10,000.

[Bagatell]

This article (dated today) seems to doubt whether the PBoC bank blockade is real:
http://www.techweb.com.cn/internet/2014-04-03/2024364.shtml
However the Google translation is extra garbled
"Bitcoin central bank ban the actual situation is questionable transactions chaos spawned free services [...]"
and I cannot tell whether the reporter knows more than we do, or less.

So no new fears, but the usual uncertainty and doubt? Thanks. 

[KFR]

[ShroomsKit]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

[JayJuanGee]

Lets face it guys we're a bit fucked. The bottom line is that all money in Bitcoin eventually needs to move through the exchanges and people aren't willing to trust the exchanges. So all that BTC thats gone may affect the price upwards in the uber long term due to lack of supply, but if there isn't a safe way to express demand, supply matters not. We'll recover but this might be another 2 year ride (no guarantees, but it seems like a real possibility). I sat through one I can sit through another though, I guess.

I think that you are correct that currently the exchanges have a disproportionate affect on price; however, I doubt that means that we are fucked.... even a bit... though short-term there seems to be too much manipulation on the exchanges, I am of the sense that solutions are going to develop including some of the decentralized exchange ideas that are already under development... like mastercoin and color coin and nxt..

[aminorex]

Interesting.  Quite off-the cuff distribution estimates.  Maybe getting a wisdom-of-crowds view would help.  Problem is, I mostly agree.

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Fair order of magnitude estimates there, no comment.

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Too high, unless you include flash spikes in this category.  Too many buyers.   Too few coins.  For flash spikes, you really need to put time-bounds on this, because without any time bounds, it seems like it should be more like 60-70%.  The 40% number can then be dialed-in by adjusting the time boundaries of the estimation period.  I'd say 2 years, minimum, to get to 40% probability.

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Rather than make artificial whale/non-whale distinctions, let's assume Zipf distributed bid and ask sizes, Poisson queuing, as is almost certain to actually occur.
If this is the remainder case, then it's just 100% less the items above.

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Let's push it out to two years, in the manner of the historical bear market in BTC.  I'd give this >90% in that case.  But I would assign very different causes.  Namely, ETPs.  Even if there are no U.S. ETPs, there will be in at least one of Hong Kong, UK, Singapore, Frankfurt -- all markets which are accessible to U.S. investors via U.S. based brokers -- with >95% likelihood.  After that, 10k is a cakewalk.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

Agreed on zero.  Not sure movements need leaders, however.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

If you are buy-n-hold, given that you don't time your entry, then you want it to get as ugly as you can withstand, and no more ugly than you can withstand.  That means you successfully maximized return subject to your drawdown tolerance.  The only way to avoid such stress is to dial down risk by strategy change or diverification, as e.g. timing entries and exits.