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2601  Economy / Speculation / Re: #bitcoin IRC log: A pirate leads a flock of sheep over a cliff. on: July 18, 2012, 02:42:23 AM
Why couldn't it be the other way around? He could be tricking all the people into selling, and make even more money, what makes you to suppose he was being honest?
2602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Assumption "bears are stupid" on: January 11, 2012, 02:40:50 PM
I am(and I believe many people are) not against bears, just permabears like Edward50. If you believe Bitcoin will never have a future under whatever circumstances, there is simply no proper reason for you to be in this forum and waste everyone's time in the first place.
2603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Animal analysis on: October 03, 2011, 09:34:44 PM
So when will will this pattern morph into the "angry bird on slingshot" pattern?
Since "The Manipulator" postings are welcome here, I too will share some analysis.

Let us first review how the old analysis played out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=18471.msg233319#msg233319
As we can see, BTCUSD has indeed had a major trend reversal. The snail pattern was an indication that the reversal would come very slowly with excruciating weeks of "price stability", for example at 17 and 14 USD.

As the months passed, though, we have left the snail behind us. Today, I see another pattern I would like to share:



Looking at the MACD it becomes apparent that we are currently undergoing a BIRDISH DIVERGENCE (as can be seen on bird I in red). The MACD with the stretching wings indicates that the bird is ready for liftoff, which can serve as a leading indicator, because the bird in price has not yet followed.

More importantly, we are currently in a trend change from SUMMER to AUTUMN. As soon as autumn comes, it will force the birds to take off and head south, possibly having great influence on the Bitcoin price.

Furthermore, bird I and II are mating, making a great quantity of future birds a strong possibility.

Initial target is 35-60.
2604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: October 02, 2011, 02:48:42 PM
Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?



The cunt from yestaerday is still a viable option. But sometimes I prefer a simplified view which is the triangle.

Excuse me, but.....what cunt Huh?! Does this word have any other meaning that I don't know?
2605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: October 02, 2011, 12:45:00 PM
Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.




Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?
2606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: September 13, 2011, 09:40:24 AM


Oh, that makes sense. Except. No, it doesn't. How do they nullify these trades in real time? We'll bitch, of course, but if that's really what Mt. Gox has done, then Bravo!

They said "most of them", then probably most of the transactions are initiated by a single account or two.
2607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: September 12, 2011, 11:21:35 PM

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. Did those trades actualy happen or not.

If not, then can you please clean up the data?

thank you

See here:
https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/20433652-resolved-outage-11804-unexecuted-trades

Someone reuse their weak bitcoin forum passwords for their Mt.Gox accounts. Noobs will always find a way to screw themselves up whatever security measures you have taken.

On the bright side, what happened proves that a single manipulator who is not incredibly resourceful could only control the price for a very short while.
2608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: September 12, 2011, 11:16:19 PM

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. Did those trades actualy happen or not.

If not, then can you please clean up the data?

thank you

See here:
https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/20433652-resolved-outage-11804-unexecuted-trades

Someone reuse their weak bitcoin forum passwords for their Mt.Gox accounts. Noobs will always find a way to screw themselves up whatever security measures you have taken.
2609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Panic Selling on: September 09, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
A lot of people tend to believe miners need about $5-5.50 to make it worth their time, but i feel that KWH leechers or FPGA users will bring the price under that $5-5.50 equilibrium.

just my 2 cents.  sure glad i sold at $11 :-)

No. The difficulty adjustment will ensure that some miners can make a profit at nearly any price. Lower prices drive miners out, difficulty ramps down, mining becomes profitable for miners remaining, more miners jump in, difficulty rises, mining becomes unprofitable, miners leave. It's a balancing feedback loop that is always in play, it makes no difference what the price is. I have no frigging clue why after a year of this we still have people insisting that the "cost of mining" somehow affects the price of bitcoins.

There is a minimum cost of running a mining rig which doesn't linearly scale with the difficulty factor.
2610  Economy / Speculation / Re: Panic Selling on: September 09, 2011, 02:53:40 PM
Eventually, miners have to decide whether they want to keep the price up or leave. And I would never mind if GPU miners leave in flocks, my mining rig is there and ready.
2611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why aren't more people buying bitcoins? on: September 04, 2011, 05:48:01 PM
Technicals point down and there is quite some probability to see a crash-type decline before a more meaningful bottom can be put in place.

This crash can go down and slice below 7$, 5$ and even 2$, without endangering the longterm bitcoin trend.

I'm holding out to see if that's true, and if it definitely happens I will subscribe also for the sake of the depreciation. Wink
2612  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 03, 2011, 10:29:22 PM
Arabic governments are usually quite xenophobic(towards presence of non-Islamic powers on Islamic territories), there is something about Gaddafi which distinguishes him from even other Arabic dictators that made them willing to support a Western military intervention.

I agree. Besides secularism, this alleged statement from 1998 may explain some of it:

Quote
"I had been crying slogans of Arab Unity and brandishing standard of Arab nationalism for 40 years, but it was not realised. That means that I was talking in the desert," Gaddafi told the Arab satellite television channel ANN this month. "I have no more time to lose talking with Arabs...I am returning back to realism...I now talk about Pan-Africanism and African Unity," he added.

"The Arab world is finished...Africa is a paradise...and it is full of natural resources like water, uranium, cobalt, iron, manganese," Gaddafi said in an apparent attempt to convince his compatriots.

Source: http://www.oocities.org/~dagmawi/News/News_Sep17_Gadhafi.html

One way or another, OP poses an important question that gets lost in moral arguments based mostly in PR campaigns of corporate media.  The Western leaders may also often be held responsible for terrible civilian atrocities all over the world - napalm, depleted uranium, cluster bombs - and they are more often then not extremely wealthy too. There is no real distinction there between them and Gaddafi, except maybe in numbers which may surprise you. The distinction is that currently they are in control of their plans and wealth, and he is not. Ergo, he is the one having problems managing his assets - and Bitcoin certainly seems like something worth considering.

So, can we try and take a disinterested look: how does Bitcoin compare to gold or cash as store of value for wealthy people who, due to the nature of their enterprise, are at risk of becoming wealthy fugitives?
Someone already pointed out that it's hard to beat a good old suitcase full of dollars - but in the long term there is the problem with inflation. Gold may correct for inflation, but then there is the issue of "value density" for those on the road - you currently get about $60 per gram of gold (as a fugitive much less than that), but $100 per gram of 100-dollar bills.
It's not fair to compare Bitcoin at this stage, but let's assume it is still the three years from now in its present form - not much regulation apart from the opinions of internal revenue agencies classifying it one way or another for tax purposes, serving some niche online and POS markets, mostly used as a store of value, and looking like it's there to stay. One undeniable advantage of Bitcoin would be the ease of transfer, physical or via network. One undeniable disadvantage would be traceability via block chain if your initial accumulation of coins was not carefully carried out.
Any other thoughts?


Well, I didn't agree with your first point actually, it was not what Gaddafi did before the rebel compels the West to intervene, it's what he did during the supression of it, the resolution of intervention got about 10 yes and 5 abstentions, and most importantly, no veto in the UNSC, the closest thing we have to a world consensus on such a issue in a long time.
2613  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 03, 2011, 11:37:11 AM
Supposedly Libya has declared several billions of USD in gold reserves. And, guess what? It's not held in Switzerland, but in Libya. Moving it around and cashing it out as needed in this situation surely makes one wonder if Bitcoin would have made life easier.

As for all the dictatorship- and terrorism-related comments here, I wonder if anyone has actually visited Libya under Gaddafi, or these are just opinions based on CNN, Fox, BBC, Wikipedia, etc. I've never been there myself, but I happen to know several people who have - and I can tell you that things were more complex and more interesting than simply a "terrorist dictatorship". Since lots of negative facts and lies have already been thrown around, I will try to balance the view a bit. It was a secular system that provided free or heavily subsidized healthcare, education, and housing to its citizens. It was a country that invested in and successfully built vast infrastructure of water wells and pipelines, enabling farming in what would otherwise been a desert. It was among the most developed and prosperous countries in Africa, and as a consequence lots of people were leaving their homeland to work in Libya. Curiously, it was a country with almost no foreign debt and with significant reserves.
At least part of the trouble and radicalization was caused by the outside intervention of western countries who were displeased with this working example of socialism and with Gaddafi's support for Pan-Africanism that threatened to interfere with the continuing extraction of resources by foreigners.
It will be interesting to see how all these things change under the new government over the next few years. I predict strengthening of religious extremism, elimination of welfare, rapid rise in foreign debt, and privatization of water and oil resources and infrastructure.


Arabic governments are usually quite xenophobic(towards presence of non-Islamic powers on Islamic territories), there is something about Gaddafi which distinguishes him from even other Arabic dictators that made them willing to support a Western military intervention.
2614  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 02, 2011, 01:25:12 AM
When will him(assume he is still alive) or other dictators discover Bitcoin?


We need to email these governments ourselves alerting them to bitcoin.

Or refrain from even talking about such a possibility, pretending that they will never find out by themseleves.
2615  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 01, 2011, 01:17:15 PM
So how would he pull out the money when needed? I assume it would be in huge chunks of money...not the 5-100 btc withdrawls that we might be used to seeing... Huh

Having his regime toppled, he should not still be expecting the same kind of  luxurious life-style as he once had, several million dollars worth of usable money to last him and his family memebers in a well-off way would be a God's gift, this amount of money could be drawn out of the market without causing much notice, given that Bitcoin had several hundred million dollars worth of market value at its price peak.

But he'll still need some place to spend them and I don't know of any BTC stores that sell dictator level luxury goods, guns n' ammo, torture racks and other authoritarian accessories. Cashing out seems out of the question since it's to the same banking system that has already blacklisted him.

If he is able to travel out of Libya to a country with reasonably well commodity distribution network, it would be possible for him to stay in hiding while buying all the necessary goods for many years like what Whitey Bulger has done.
2616  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 01, 2011, 11:06:33 AM
So how would he pull out the money when needed? I assume it would be in huge chunks of money...not the 5-100 btc withdrawls that we might be used to seeing... Huh

Having his regime toppled, he should not still be expecting the same kind of  luxurious life-style as he once had, several million dollars worth of usable money to last him and his family memebers in a well-off way would be a God's gift, this amount of money could be drawn out of the market without causing much notice, given that Bitcoin had several hundred million dollars worth of market value at its price peak.
2617  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: September 01, 2011, 12:01:33 AM
So by this I assume you support terrorism, tyranny and dictatorships?
No, he did not. An opinion was never made.

It's called an "assumption". Gaddafi Vowed to continue a Guerilla war after he was deposed (which in this day and age essentially amounts to domestic terrorism) and he himself funded a cruel and tyrannical regime. If you believe he is entitled to his wealth after vowing to use it for such disgusting tactics I could only assume you must agree with what he has done.

I am not saying he is entitled to own anything. But seeing that he is still lurking around with armored limousines, bodyguards, family members, etc, and is fully able to feed all these people, one can only assume that he is carrying substantial amount of material wealth, and is still well-connected to purchase living necessities. and I don't think he was silly enough to convert all his wealth into fiat currencies, especially considering he was trying to build a gold-backed economic system. So you probably had made a presumption of evil intention.

This is besides the point. The man has vowed to fund terrorism with his money, and yet you have objected to what money he has in international banks being seized from him. If you are disputing that this should not be the case you are essentially agreeing that he should be allowed to fund guerrilla warfare against innocents after his long and brutal regime.
Excuse me, but where did I make such objections, disputes as you have put into text? All I was saying is, due to Bitcoin's inherent protection against government probes, it maybe possible that the dictators will get interested in it., if just by talking about dictators' willingness to use Bitcoin will make me a terrorism supporter, then the same standard should be applied to your post in which you mentioned terrorism, tyranny, etc. And if you're calling my last post"besides the point", I would doubt if you even understand what a "point" is.
2618  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: August 31, 2011, 11:48:51 PM
So by this I assume you support terrorism, tyranny and dictatorships?
No, he did not. An opinion was never made.

It's called an "assumption". Gaddafi Vowed to continue a Guerilla war after he was deposed (which in this day and age essentially amounts to domestic terrorism) and he himself funded a cruel and tyrannical regime. If you believe he is entitled to his wealth after vowing to use it for such disgusting tactics I could only assume you must agree with what he has done.

I am not saying he is entitled to own anything. But seeing that he is still lurking around with armored limousines, bodyguards, family members, etc, and is fully able to feed all these people, one can only assume that he is carrying substantial amount of material wealth, and is still well-connected to purchase living necessities. and I don't think he was silly enough to convert all his wealth into fiat currencies, especially considering he was trying to build a gold-backed economic system. So you probably had made a presumption of evil intention.
2619  Other / Politics & Society / Re: So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: August 31, 2011, 08:41:58 PM
So by this I assume you support terrorism, tyranny and dictatorships?

Did I say I support these activities anywhere? Bitcoin itself offers an impartial protection of its owners' privacies, if the dictators decide to invest on Bitcoins there is nothing we can do to prevent them from doing so as long as the design iteself remains flawless, then it would be interesting to speculate whether and how will they get in, and what its impact would be.
2620  Other / Politics & Society / So Gaddafi has had his foreign assets frozen...... on: August 31, 2011, 08:24:42 PM
When will him(assume he is still alive) or other dictators discover Bitcoin?
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