The reason for the "Buy and hold isn't a smart trading method", is because everyone KNOWS the price is going back down eventually. Therefore, if you know it's going down, sell and buy 2x, 3x, etc. more BTC at the lower price for holding.
The only thing you should really know for sure, is that you don't know. What if it doesn't 'go back down eventually' just like you envision. What if it spikes down to a penny above your bids then immediately back up over $10 never to return to single figures? What if it spikes down, you buy in at $2, the govt makes it illegal and it immediately tanks to a few cents... forever destined to remain an underground currency never worth more then $0.10 What if something happens that nobody has even considered yet that takes it to the moon/zero. You don't *KNOW* shit. Neither do I. |
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 Lots of people drink silver water and gold water and you can find it in your body as well. just saying.
Mmmm...  Well that depends on what consumed means, I'm going to arbitrarily group thusly: "Consumed" Electronics 7% Dentistry 2% Other Industrial Uses 2% Medals 1% 12% "Hoarded" Jewelry 67% Implied Investment 9% Bar Hoarding 3% Net Producer Hedging 3% Coins 3% 85% So I reckon the other 3% is what they make bitcoins from, so that means the entire market will be worth 3% of 5.3million troy ounces, at todays prices around $250m so fair price is $11.90 a coin! heh. |
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Any downward spike will be even worse for all the people who's margin balance is leveraged up from BTC Currency. As BTC price drops the 'margin balance' also drops forcing quicker liquidations for anyone who was leveraged up. I still have a few hundred bucks parked over there for a speculative leveraged up buy at knockdown prices  but I don't fancy risking much more than that for now. |
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To become a serious player I think adoption has to increase quite significantly. We've come along way from 10,000 BTC pizza's, a ball park guess would be we have about the same to go again - just to get to 'serious player'. That would still be a huge distance from 'bitcoin replacing USD' scenario.
So assuming it 'merely' becomes a successful player I reckon you might say $1000 a BTC - some way short of the crazy 1 BTC = $250k predictions that have been thrown around. For anyone with a few hundred coins stashed away as a speculative investment that's a pretty cool return. Not to mention that we get at least a little bit of control back over our money.
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I just bought some. So I could buy something with them. Useless eh? pfft.
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For the long term I suggest at least 1 Bitcoin. It's like a lottery ticket, either Bitcoin will be worth a lot or it will fail. Either way, it's not a big risk.
It's either worth a lot or it's a failure? No middle ground? Do you think it's a failure now cause they're not worth a lot? I'd agree with cbeast. If something serious happens that kills it, it's worthless. If this mysterious tragedy does not happen, then there seem to be a very few reasons why it wouldn't grow in time. It's useful and speculative and although it (probably) has critical mass right now its still largely unheard of (1% of people?) If you look at it like you might look at a new product in a market, then you have a serious marketplace, no real competitors and moat of several million dollars, several thousand existing customers (is the block chain also a competitive advantage?). From that view its a dream investment, has plenty of room to grow unchecked. In this world of extremes, fading to mediocrity seems to be the outlier here! |
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So where's the floor? Read this plus what I linked at the bottom. tl;dr: The floor is a few cents, and a reasonable level of speculation would put us at 10x the floor - perhaps $0.50. Any price above that requires either wild speculation (what we have now), or an increase in commerce. I dig this in principle, but disagree on the floor - I reckon its probably higher. Though the exact value is not so important. (we aren't trying to time tops and bottoms are we, now that would be naive !) What's important is that this hypothetical floor is unlikely to be a fixed value. I think it must inevitably rise - as time goes on, more people get involved, and that means more people putting buying pressure at more points on the way down, more people want coins, and there is more money in the game, the harder it falls the higher the number of people see a speculative opportunity Predicting the ups and downs of a random walk is mug's game. The only question to answer is whether bitcoin will stick. If it will then its inevitable that it will go up in value in the long (long i.e. years/decades) term for simple reason of supply/demand. Im sure the price will oscillate, and some will win and some will use. I read in another thread someone saying 'buy and hold is dead' (or something like that) if you believe bitcoin will stick then this is absurd. This is possibly the best chance ever to get in at the bottom of what will likely be one of the most profitable secular bull runs in history. So ask yourself if you think it will stick. There's a few killer reasons it might not - fundamental crypto flaw, fundamental legal issue. Maybe there is something else fundamental that I can't think of right now, but I would cover that under the third possibility 'black swan'. For these three reasons you should be cautious for sure, assess your appetite for risk and take your position accordingly. Provided you haven't bet the farm, and are aware that it could all turn to dust, and you are happy with that possibility, then buy and hold is surely the most guaranteed way to 'not lose'. If you don't lose, the winning will take care of itself. I do a bit of trading here and there - but I know I'm probably on a loser, its entertainment, gambling even. That's entirely different from what I have bought to hold. They will be held - I'm guessing at least a decade. Each to their own though. As much of a long term bull as I am, I think its fairly clear market is overbought right now (even after the small drop today). My play money is back on the sidelines, and my orders are in on gox (i even have a speculative lowball bid in on bitcoinica with some hefty leverage! cover all bases!). Let the games continue! |
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This thread is both long on epicness, and short on pyramid.
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do i hear a n00b crying?
LOL, aren't you just precious? Only small-brained teenage dipshits use the term noob, much less spell it n00b. I suppose I should add a poll choice just for the mentally 12 and under and set. That would be 31337, wouldn't it kiddies? its 1337, you n00b There I am testing the monkeys again, we have a winner. I thought only small-brained teenage dipshits would seriously care. Thanks for speaking up for the concerns of older cases of arrested development such as yourself. You trolled me good! |
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do i hear a n00b crying?
LOL, aren't you just precious? Only small-brained teenage dipshits use the term noob, much less spell it n00b. I suppose I should add a poll choice just for the mentally 12 and under and set. That would be 31337, wouldn't it kiddies? its 1337, you n00b |
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in the interests of fairness i should confirm my USD gox code came through about 7 hours ago, so i didn't have to wait long. the irony of course was that I then couldn't get on to gox to cash it. hah. still its all sorted now just need a retrace to load back up |
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If it busts through $7 it might go to $12
However, I think we will probably need to re-test $2.20 before we start looking for new all time highs (they will come though, in time).
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this 'short of USD' thing is worrying considering my entire Currency Account on there is in USD! (not sure why you would keep it in BTC - surely if the usd/btc price drops, the last thing you want is for your trading margin to disappear too! or maybe I'm not 'risk on' enough, heheh) For all the reassurances in this thread, something doesn't feel right to me. The very fact that my withdrawal to gox voucher goes to 'pending approval' instead of simply issuing a voucher makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. Feels a bit like the distinction between 'client money' and 'bank deposits'. I like my brokerage to hold my funds as client money. Think I'll withdraw my capital and just play with my winnings in bitcoinica from now on there. Good luck to zhou and the boys, its a pretty neat site - nice idea and nicer ui than gox v2.0 imho! I'd rather lose a few hundred if it goes tits up though that a few thousand! Mind you , if you were to get options up and running I might reconsider....  edit: http://help.bitcoinica.com/discussions/questions/56-withdrawal-of-usd-as-mt-gox-coupon-displays-pending-approvalOK, fair explanation about why i have to wait, still I don't have to like it ! |
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Order completed ...
112445 BTCUSD Limit -50.0 $4.6500 18 minutes ago Executed @ 4.6674
thx xx
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I am used to it taking 5 or 10 secs, and for bigger orders to take a while to go through as they get chipped away at in blocks of 50, but this is doing my head in. The quoted price was above my order price for at least 15 mins. Its now gone below again.
I'm also starting to wonder, given the 'USD Shortage' whether that means I'l be able to get USD's out, because if this flakiness continues I am pulling everything.
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plz explain ... now 11mins... i see no restriction on the sell side why so long to execute....  |
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The spread is a bitch - makes trading difficult. As soon as you get any volatility or movement to trade on the spread widens which totally screws your ability to get any decent profits.
I am only using bitcoinica for extra leverage on a long term long position now. Leave plenty of free margin to avoid liquidation, you'll still get a bigger exposure than buying outright, with manageable downside risk, and unlimited upside.
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College? This kid sounds like he is barely out of kindergarten.
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