The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere. I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in? Who is they? You are talking about the overall BTC market price? BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements. They = market makers. Whoever that might be. Yes, "they" exist, but I believe it is too conspiratorial to concede them too much weight and credit. |
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The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere. I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in? by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc. So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%. However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market. So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take 1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5. So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money. That sounds like nearly a sure bet.... not only free money, but easy money.  |
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The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere. I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in? Who is they? You are talking about the overall BTC market price? BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements. |
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Give me a sign!!!!! OH? That's the sign? Should I sell now in order to be ahead of the game? Even with that charting of a breaking down in China, I am only slightly bearish for the next 3% break out... maybe 52.75% betting on down... The mid $420s resistance has been proving a bit more formidable than I had expected, and possibly could be a few more weeks to get passed that point. I do understand that when we are suffering from overall relative low volume, that leaves quite a bit of control to manipulators.. and it seems that bears tend to push their agenda a bit more in the low volume scenarios... and recently no one seems to getting too excited about possibilities of getting left behind. |
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True why would the price go to 7.7k. It makes no sense. It may even drop to 250 again. There are never certainties when you invest.
Bitcoin is not different then your average investment.
Those numbers are based on your wishes and they are related with feelings and as such they are false! Simple don't put your feelings in business. People who invest with feelings are doing a wrong thing indeed. Business is about being formal and act business wise. Getting emotional, saying/hoping the price will go to 7700 USD is just crazy. Just because people place a certain level of probability that prices are going to $7,700 does not mean that they are being emotional.... and it does not mean that they are crazy. On the other hand, if people are placing unrealistically high probabilities, such as 80% within the next year, then that may be crazy... The devil is in the details regarding what kinds of predictions and probabilities are crazy and which ones are reasonable... and your level of reasonable and my level or reasonable will likely still be within the realm of reasonable even if we have considerably different views, and yep, surely there are going to be some people who have crazy predictions... and crazy expectations regarding what is probable and what is a long shot. |
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I think he's either in lala land if he believes that we are easily going down to $370 or lower or on the other hand maybe he didn't buy back in and is engaging in wishful thinking.
Still in lala land, glad I took my short position when I did, even if all three reasons I posted weren't valid in your mind. Still heading down I see, maybe not to $370 yet. But we'll see. As far as needing to buy back at lower price, my cost average currently is $212 so getting in at any price above that would just be ridiculous. I'm certainly not in a contest with you concerning whether or not you are correct in your predictions, and actually there are a lot of ways to profit in bitcoin or any other investment, and if you believe that you have to get in below $212 in order to profit, you are actually in lala land. For example, you can buy at $1,000 tomorrow, and if prices go up to $1100 and you cash out those coins, you have just profited 10% on that purchase, and you also may bring down your average cost per BTC, if you fold those profits into your BTC investment portfolio funds (rather than completely removing them from the calculation). So getting in at $400 when I have a portfolio of 50+ at cost average of $212 makes sense to you? If I bought 5 BTC at current price it will raise my CA by $18. With current swings in price being +/- 6% this doesn't equate to short term gains, especially if there is a 1% fee to buy/sell. But shorting at $420 and buying back in at $370 does make sense to me, since this will in fact lower my cost average. But there are a lot of "If" statements in your arguments per usual. There are a lot of "if" statements in my assertions because there are a lot of individual tailoring that needs to take place with any investment, and certainly, you should do what makes sense to you. What makes sense to you may not make sense to me and my circumstances. Why the fuck would I be suggesting some kind of one size fits all scenario? Accordingly, there seems to be no need to compete with me regarding whether your approach to BTC is better or worse than mine, and maybe you are still in a bit of a defensive mode because I characterize your prediction of low or downward BTC prices as a bit fanciful and wishful thinking rather than being based on objective and non-emotional considerations. Yeah, go ahead and continue to attempt to assert that you are right and I am wrong, and that argument gets you nowhere with me, because I am not you and I am not trying to give you financial advice. No matter what is your average cost per BTC, any kind of in-depth analysis regarding your position or what to do should include other factors, besides merely what is your average cost per BTC and whether buying causes that cost per BTC to be raised or lowered. Like I already suggested, if it seems fairly likely that BTC prices are going to go up, then it makes sense to buy, even though in the short-term such purchase causes your average price per BTC to go up even higher, yet once you sell (hopefully at a profit), then your overall average price per BTC goes down because you include both the buy and the sell into the total calculation of the cost per BTC. Of course, with any trading there is some risk because if prices don't go up, as you may have anticipated, then you may have caused your average price per BTC to go up for a longer period than you had originally anticipated. Yet, let me be clear to recognize that you seem to be anticipating the odds of downward BTC price movement to be greater than what I am anticipating. You can anticipate that if you want, and you can stagger your bets according to such anticipated downward price direction. I don't fucking care because I have set my portfolio to be prepared for price movements in either direction - even though I would prefer BTC prices to go up, I have a buy and sell strategy that I am continuously reallocating my BTC portfolio and prepared for downward price movement too, if that is what happens. Some BTC investors bet a lot on one way or another and then they become emotional about it, and I just don't play like that. Betting balls to the wall with BTC is just not good for my overall approach to BTC and my overall investments in a variety of other areas. My whole life investment plan has spread out my investments, so i continue to consider my BTC portion of my investment as serving a hedge against a variety of my dollar based investments. There's a variety of ways to divide up investments, and some portions of investments are more liquid than other, and sometimes investments can become more liquid and allow for strategic choices. Now, for you personally, if you believe that you have invested a lot in BTC, then it may be good to take some profits; however, taking profits now may not make sense if the price is going up from here... or if BTC prices are more likely to go up rather than down. You have to make calculations for yourself and your own scenario. |
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Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash.  Your posts are dog shit because you're just a flat out propagandist liar. This is the only one where you even speak a glimmer of truth. That you want the price to crash so you can buy. You don't actually think the price is going to crash, you just spam non-stop "omg the price is going to crash to $1 at any second" praying that it does. People who do nothing but lie 24 hours a day are called sociopaths and psychopaths. The fact that you think this is acceptable behavior means you are a trash human and should probably do some self introspection to fix yourself. Whether someone is my friend or enemy, I have no need to lie to either. Except that you are the liar. In one sentence you managed to lie 3 times: "account sold" - that never happened; "Zionist banker shill" - I am not a zionist nor a banker; and the third with "crashing to $1 tomorrow". I am not going to extrapolate this to 24 hours and call you names, other can draw their own conclusions. I do speak my book, as do most of posters here. And so far the price has failed to break 450$, so right now the bearish scenario is more probable, and I am counting on it. The MACD is negative in 1h, 2h, 6h, 12h and 1d time frames, 6h and 12h PSAR have flipped to bearish yesterday, so it does look promising for the bears. If there will be a crash, I expect to test 300$ support, that's something I have been waiting for a long time. My bids (to close my short) are now in the 300$ - 320$ area. Once it hits 300$, will you become bullish or are you long term bearish? If it hits $300, we're likely all fucked... and accordingly, we would probably get another 2 years of flat BTC performance if such a scenario were to play out, no? Maybe the halving which really matters is the one in 4 years. Realistically, we cannot deny that there is a lot going on in bitcionlandia during the remainder of this calendar year (2016). Lots of additional things are likely to happen between now and 2020, so I don't know. Surely, bitcoin could suffer another sub $300 period, but the odds of that are seeming quite remote in the current state of bitcoin developments. In any event, we should prepare for price movements in either direction, and be prepared to weather adverse conditions in the event that they continue to be presented to the space. I personally do think that the odds are greater than 75% that we are going to at least see fairly sustained $700 prices within less than the next 4 years and at least greater than 50% chances that at least one more ATH in the $3k to $5k territory will be reached in less than 4 years.... but still lot's of unknowns, and we can only approximate and when conditions change we have to reconsider our views regarding probabilities. If we had not experienced a large amount of 2015 in the sub $300 price territory, bullish BTC scenarios would be a lot more prevalent and prices would probably be at least 25% higher than they are now. |
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I think he's either in lala land if he believes that we are easily going down to $370 or lower or on the other hand maybe he didn't buy back in and is engaging in wishful thinking.
Still in lala land, glad I took my short position when I did, even if all three reasons I posted weren't valid in your mind. Still heading down I see, maybe not to $370 yet. But we'll see. As far as needing to buy back at lower price, my cost average currently is $212 so getting in at any price above that would just be ridiculous. I'm certainly not in a contest with you concerning whether or not you are correct in your predictions, and actually there are a lot of ways to profit in bitcoin or any other investment, and if you believe that you have to get in below $212 in order to profit, you are actually in lala land. For example, you can buy at $1,000 tomorrow, and if prices go up to $1100 and you cash out those coins, you have just profited 10% on that purchase, and you also may bring down your average cost per BTC, if you fold those profits into your BTC investment portfolio funds (rather than completely removing them from the calculation). |
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True why would the price go to 7.7k. It makes no sense. It may even drop to 250 again. There are never certainties when you invest.
Bitcoin is not different then your average investment.
Those numbers are based on your wishes and they are related with feelings and as such they are false! Simple don't put your feelings in business. None of us really know how prices are going to play out in either the short-term or the long term. In the short term, we likely can recognize previous highs and lows and therefore approximate our estimations of support and resistance price points that we need to get passed... and if prices move in either direction passed those support and resistance points, it will then affect further dynamics to either continue to move in the same direction or to reverse directions. When posters are predicting... blah blah blah.. for sure we are going in one direction or another, they seem to be either minimizing or negating the support or resistance points that have to be traversed first, which is dependent on a variety of factors including momentum, fundamentals and the pervasiveness of the spreading of either FUD or hype. |
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Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash. Your posts are dog shit because you're just a flat out propagandist liar. This is the only one where you even speak a glimmer of truth. That you want the price to crash so you can buy. You don't actually think the price is going to crash, you just spam non-stop "omg the price is going to crash to $1 at any second" praying that it does. People who do nothing but lie 24 hours a day are called sociopaths and psychopaths. The fact that you think this is acceptable behavior means you are a trash human and should probably do some self introspection to fix yourself. Whether someone is my friend or enemy, I have no need to lie to either. Except that you are the liar. In one sentence you managed to lie 3 times: "account sold" - that never happened; "Zionist banker shill" - I am not a zionist nor a banker; and the third with "crashing to $1 tomorrow". I am not going to extrapolate this to 24 hours and call you names, other can draw their own conclusions. I do speak my book, as do most of posters here. And so far the price has failed to break 450$, so right now the bearish scenario is more probable, and I am counting on it. The MACD is negative in 1h, 2h, 6h, 12h and 1d time frames, 6h and 12h PSAR have flipped to bearish yesterday, so it does look promising for the bears. If there will be a crash, I expect to test 300$ support, that's something I have been waiting for a long time. My bids (to close my short) are now in the 300$ - 320$ area. Once it hits 300$, will you become bullish or are you long term bearish? If it hits $300, we're likely all fucked... and accordingly, we would probably get another 2 years of flat BTC performance if such a scenario were to play out, no? |
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Of course, I am counting on a failed test to break 450$, and then a nice crash. Your posts are dog shit because you're just a flat out propagandist liar. This is the only one where you even speak a glimmer of truth. That you want the price to crash so you can buy. You don't actually think the price is going to crash, you just spam non-stop "omg the price is going to crash to $1 at any second" praying that it does. People who do nothing but lie 24 hours a day are called sociopaths and psychopaths. The fact that you think this is acceptable behavior means you are a trash human and should probably do some self introspection to fix yourself. Whether someone is my friend or enemy, I have no need to lie to either. Except that you are the liar. In one sentence you managed to lie 3 times: "account sold" - that never happened; "Zionist banker shill" - I am not a zionist nor a banker; and the third with "crashing to $1 tomorrow". I am not going to extrapolate this to 24 hours and call you names, other can draw their own conclusions. I do speak my book, as do most of posters here. And so far the price has failed to break 450$, so right now the bearish scenario is more probable, and I am counting on it. The MACD is negative in 1h, 2h, 6h, 12h and 1d time frames, 6h and 12h PSAR have flipped to bearish yesterday, so it does look promising for the bears. If there will be a crash, I expect to test 300$ support, that's something I have been waiting for a long time. My bids (to close my short) are now in the 300$ - 320$ area. We gotta get past support in the $370s and $350 first.. and those are not going to be easy tasks... could take quite a while for such a thing to play out, and further there is not very much effective FUD floating around these days, such as the Hearn rage quit scenarios..... So, for the time being, your bearishness scenario seems quite a bit exaggerated. |
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The Kwukduck reality check thread.
This thread is not unrealistic.... it's just a matter of networking effects, momentum and timing. Another 19x increase from today's prices is completely within the realm of possibilities... ... especially if we zoom out a bit.. maybe 5 years? a 19x increase from today's prices is also possible within 12 months, but quite a bit more improbable due to actual forces also working to keep bitcoin down. If we get a 10x increase from today's prices within 18 months, that would be pretty decent.. and I am thinking may be around a 30% chance of accomplishing that 10x to the territory of $3k to $5k. Am I too pie in the sky? |
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IMO chances are high that the big triangle will break down tomorrow.
Except your account was sold and is now run by some Zionist banker shills. Entire post history is "omg price is crashing to $1 tomorrow! Rampant delusion... I became a bear since I noticed artificial pumps, during the summer - autumn of 2013. Later those pumps became known as the work of Markus and Willy. And I never claimed a crash to $1 tomorrow. But I do post when I smell a bearish move, although I may be wrong. In essence, with the trend of the BTC market, it sounds like predicting bear trends, you would have been wrong quite a bit in 2013, and then correct quite a bit in 2014... and maybe 2015 was of mixed results. If you are suggesting markus and willy as a major cause of the 2013 price pump, you are way over simplifying matters. .. that bot and gox issues may have contributed to price movement, but there were a lot of other factors, too.. Actually, if you think about it. If GOX really did lose 100k coins in 2011, and they were trying to get them back.. if they really did have significant control over the price direction of the market, they could have manipulated it in such a way in order to make all of those coins back... but they failed in part because they did not have control over the price direction of the market... and got themselves in a bigger and bigger pickle because they got it wrong and were not able to make enough quickly enough in order to cover their asses. |
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You make all decent points, except your response to my last point.
Of course there is some fractional reserves going on. You don't think so? They end up being a scam if they get caught and there is a run on the bank, but there is considerable incentives for 3rd party holders to engage in fractional reserve behaviors, especially if they think that they will not get caught....
You think chinese exchanges have full reserves? Bitfinex, BTCC, OK coin, Huobi? Even if they allow marginal trading, etc etc, it seems more likely than not that they do not have all the coins that they claim to have. But I am hypothesizing about that, too.
Actually, i have thought about this, since i`m a hobby economist but I came to the conclusion that it's irrelevant. Bitcoin ponzi schemes are isolated, and wont create systematic problems. Only those will be affected that hold their coins there. Yes people will lose their money, but the ponzi wont be passed on to the entire network ,like they do with fiat. In the fiat system, the entire global banking system is a ponzi scheme, so you cannot save your money anywhere. But in bitcoin, if you are so dumb to keep your money in an exchange, that is your fault, and the loss is isolated to those dumb clients, while the cold storage holders won't lose anything. I don't disagree with you, necessarily; however, I nonetheless believe that you may be undercalculating the impact of fractional reserves on bitcoin valuation - and even our knowledge of the distribution of actual coins out there. Surely, technical people and bitcoin advocates have concerns about the extent to which fractional reserve practices may be taking place and there remains pushes to increase ease of use mechanisms to verify that coins are there and also for individuals to more easily maintain their own private keys, rather than trusting them to 3rd parties. Gox was a pretty decent sized example of fractional reserves coming to a head, yet a similar problem could result again, which causes some undermining of confidence in bitcoin and can indirectly drag down the whole value of bitcoins. Nonetheless, I agree with you that the problem is not as pervasive in bitcoin (or even other crypto currencies) as it is with almost all major fiat currencies. |
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but I doubt that anytime soon there will be that level of transparency regarding private holdings.
You want to say never, there will never be a definite proof that can prove that you own an address. Even if you send regularly money to a bitcoin address, there is no way to prove that the recipient is you unless you send from that address as well. So even if there are 100 addresses well connected that send money to eachother, there is no way to prove that who owns them even if some addresses there have a real owner. It can be anything. Really the blockchain only tells you as much as you can see, everything else is speculation.
Surely, I value some of my privacy - even though in anonymous survey, i may be willing to tell the truth regarding my holdings - depending on my mood on that day.
Most people dont lie, that is why surveys work, otherwise the whole concept of survey would be useless. So an anonymous survey with many participants, could give us scientific info about the % distribution of wealth holders, if the samples are well selected. Also, is there some fractional reserves going on with bitcoin... I hope not, but I am sure that there is some level of that going on, too.
Haha those are scams, we are not interested in that, there are 15.3 million bitcoins now, we are only interested in real bitcoins. You make all decent points, except your response to my last point. Of course there is some fractional reserves going on. You don't think so? They end up being a scam if they get caught and there is a run on the bank, but there is considerable incentives for 3rd party holders to engage in fractional reserve behaviors, especially if they think that they will not get caught.... You think chinese exchanges have full reserves? Bitfinex, BTCC, OK coin, Huobi? Even if they allow marginal trading, etc etc, it seems more likely than not that they do not have all the coins that they claim to have. But I am hypothesizing about that, too. |
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On the one hand, this could be a testing of the $404-$400 support, and we will ether bounce off or move sideways-up from here... or it could be part of a relentless campaign that will push us back to $390, $380 and the sort. I for one, moved my buy orders up a bit (filled now), and am hodling on for dear life, hoping my long(s)'s interests won't start consuming my bitcoin stash. I just need $415 before the 25th  . I'm so close to having 0.9 BTC, I can taste it! Tastes... mediocre. Sounds like you are playing with some real big numbers. At this point, based on current price action, seems like we have a little less than a 50/50 chance of reaching $415 within the next week... .. but anything can happen in bitcoin... especially once we are getting some action.. but sometimes it can take more than a week to reverse courses.... when currently we have downward price pressures.... |
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Someone said a while ago that something like the top 100 wallets have 6 million Bitcoin or some similar number, and thus it seems more feasible that the top 1% hold or will hold >45% of all the Bitcoin that will exist.
I guess we'll find out one day.
Those are rumors FFS, how can anyone know this? I need raw data folks, or at least some bigger survey about this. As you can see from OP (and the last couple of posts), there can be a variety of methodologies to extract data in order to make inferential and logical claims.... so far, not really direct data concerning this topic. Also, sometimes, there can be a bit confusing and possibly self-serving (inaccurate) information coming out of exchanges and other third-party wallet holders that may inaccurately portray number of wallet holders and distribution of coins in those wallets. For example, currently, I have my coins spread out over more than 10 wallets (but some wallets create multiple addresses, so currently, I have at least three times as many addresses as I do wallets). Possibly, there would be enough information to figure out that those 10 wallets (and 30+ addresses) are mine, but I doubt that anytime soon there will be that level of transparency regarding private holdings. Surely, I value some of my privacy - even though in anonymous survey, i may be willing to tell the truth regarding my holdings - depending on my mood on that day. Also, is there some fractional reserves going on with bitcoin... I hope not, but I am sure that there is some level of that going on, too. |
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... The odds of Chartbuddy coming back under RichyT are probably less than 10%. So, if people here want Chartbuddy, they gotta make another Chartbuddy. I personally have no skills in that direction, either. Maybe chartbuddy in this thread is ded?  I'm good with computers   Desperate times call for desperate measures. In other words: That's pretty good. When you gonna be able to start to employ your services? |
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What missing in action? No way! I miss my beloved chartbuddy. He was so democratic he would never answer anyone. So terribly sad not to see him posting here Chartbuddy has ragequit. Get used to it. This is a sign our world is going to collapse. The next 3.5 hours will be critical. Oh well next three hours will be critical indeed my friend and I can confirm I will be definitely sleeping: Dreaming chartbuddy will update me every hour Maybe someone can program another chart bot buddy? I would love to do that but I am not able to program such things: actually I'd rather have Chartbuddy back for good. This thread makes no sense now without him. The odds of Chartbuddy coming back under RichyT are probably less than 10%. So, if people here want Chartbuddy, they gotta make another Chartbuddy. I personally have no skills in that direction, either. Maybe chartbuddy in this thread is ded? |
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What missing in action? No way! I miss my beloved chartbuddy. He was so democratic he would never answer anyone. So terribly sad not to see him posting here Chartbuddy has ragequit. Get used to it. This is a sign our world is going to collapse. The next 3.5 hours will be critical. Oh well next three hours will be critical indeed my friend and I can confirm I will be definitely sleeping: Dreaming chartbuddy will update me every hour Maybe someone can program another chart bot buddy? |
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