Link(s) or it didn't happen.



Edit: Whoops.  I sent you an smerit in the other thread that you provided a link, but then I noticed that you linked back to this above link-less post of yours.

Yeah.. your head is like a concrete block that is not penetrable.

It seems that I have explained a million different ways, and nothing seems to sink in because you already have your mind made up regarding what strategy you are going to employ and your inability to understand and appreciate that a newbie coming into bitcoin is likely going to be way the fuck better off just getting started rather than trying to figure out if a BTC price dip is coming or not... and once s/he has accumulated a certain amount of BTC and learned about BTC for a while, then maybe s/he will be in a better position to either change his/her strategy to supplement with buying on dips, rather than DCA or to completely replace the DCA strategy with some buying on dips kind of a practice.. that still may or may not be a form of DCA, depending upon how it is deployed..


It might matter in the context of someone waiting around for a Dip might end up fucking himself (or psyching himself) out of buying bitcoin on a regular basis and perhaps employing more aggressive ongoing BTC buying habits.. so maybe the whimpy guy ends up strategizing and not really buying as much as the guy who just buys regularly and perhaps supplements a bit more from time to time with extra purchases on dips.  Do you need some examples, or do you just want to act like the ONLY way to go is to buy on dips based on your retroactively looking at the BTC price moves and the figuring out the points at which some hypothetical person would have bought his/her BTC?


That seems to be true... and there are likely still at least another 10 years of front-running billionaires, even though some of them are seeming to start to "get it."... even though it is hard to know which ones of them are actually getting it rather than seeming to get it but not really getting it.   


Even though I agree that there is a considerable amount of freedom that comes from having greater levels of discretionary income, I do not really agree with the dichotomy that you seem to be creating (and Wind_FURY seems to frequently make a similar kind of dichotomy), and even though poor people do not have much to work with (when it comes to their discretionary income), they still may well have reasons to be more motivated to buy bitcoin because they may well not have very many other options, as compared with the options that are available to rich people and may end up distracting rich people from being able to see, recognize and appreciate the value of bitcoin.


You continue to sound a bit lost, HONDACD125... and unable to appreciate the value of holding bitcoin for the long term rather than contemplating when to sell.


I agree with everything that you said in your post bitzizzix except this part that seems to be emphasizing selling.

Sure there are likely going to be points in time that we are going to be selling portions of our BTC, but you seem to be implying that we are going to want to sell BTC and to hold something else or that we are really going to need or want to sell large portions of our BTC, absent just living off of the stack and largely just mostly continuing to hold the vast majority of what we have.

Maybe an example might be helpful? 

Let's say for example, a person got into bitcoin in 2015, and had a target of retiring in 2025, but not really sure how much BTC he was going to need.  so in mid 2015, he bought 100 BTC for around $30k, and then after that he just DCA'd $10 per week into BTC, and so he has an additional 2.5 BTC that he paid $4,280 over the past 8.5 years.

In 2025, he could just create a budget in which he just cashes out around 4% of his BTC stash every single year (or maybe 1% per quarter), and likely, he will be able to either live off of that forever or to use it to supplement whatever other income that he might have coming in, and maybe he might adjust how he sells his BTC based on the BTC price, but he would not necessarily have to tailor his cashing out (or living off of his stash) based on the price, he just cashes out 1% of his stash every quarter or whatever other kind of time frame that largely fits his formula (and maybe he will tweak his formula over time based on BTC potentially growing faster than he expected, but he might just decide to be strict about following the formula that he already established and just let the chips fall wherever they will)... which largely I am arguing that there may well not be any kind of need to cash out large portions of his BTC, unless maybe he might decide to cash out 10% and consider that to be 2.5 years worth of cashing out all in one go.

Yes.. it is a kind of sign of failing to sufficiently plan, and not being prepared to continue to buy if the BTC price were to fall or at least to HODL through the BTC price drops, and yeah it could take 3-5 years or even more for some of our BTC purchases to get back into profits if the BTC had ended up going down after our purchase.. and one of my personal solutions had been to continue to buy BTC even when my average cost per BTC may have been higher than the current price, and so maybe it still takes a while to get into profits (and sure it is not guaranteed to get into profits), but when the average cost per BTC comes down, then the threshold for getting into profits becomes lower and lower, and with an asset like bitcoin, the odds seem pretty decent that the price trajectory is UP, even though there may well continue to be long periods of down and/or flat BTC prices along the way.


You likely would not know a good example if it slapped you in the face.

Most likely you need to zoom out a bit, and if you were even attempting to be honest in your posts, you would be able to appreciate that bitcoin is amongst the best performing of broadly distributed assets of the past 10 years or so, and perhaps even the best.

Sure, there is no guarantee in regards to the future.. so position sizes should be adjusted in order to account for such lack of guarantee regarding where BTC might go in the future, even though its asymmetric UPside nature, likely suggest that it is good to have some stake in bitcoin, whether that is $100 or $1,000,000 or some amount that might be reasonable in regards to your budget.  In recent times, I have tended to recommend somewhere in the ballpark of 1% to 25% of any persons quasi-liquid investment portfolio, yet of course, people need to choose their own levels within that range or even outside of that range if they have some kind of a rationale for going outside of that range and at the same time, every person is responsible for his/her own allocation decision(s), including if their decisions happen to be NOT to invest at all into bitcoin, which is also a decision.


Well if they have no discretionary budget, then they likely are not in a position to invest into anything, so it would be stupid to invest into something if there is no discretionary income.. as you suggest.


You sound a bit patronizing.. and presumptuous.  I would think that it is in the interest of every single person to figure out his/her budget and to figure out ways to either live within his/her means, and to also use debt (if s/he has any credit or ways to use debt) in ways that are wise and within the parameters of his/her personal cashflows.. and sometimes it is not prudent to even use debt if a person might not even have discretionary income, as you suggest.,. The use of debt is a more advance technique of building wealth that would only come after a person makes sure that s/he has his/her shit together in terms of personal finances and budgeting.


If cannot figure out a long term way of investing into bitcoin, then maybe you deserve to get recked, and I would not blame bitcoin for the gambling mentality that is inculcated into people based on various broken fiat system incentives.

Yeah people feel like they have to gamble, so the approach a lot of things, including but not limited to bitcoin, with short-term thinking and short-term ways of considering getting in and out of their investments (which is most likely not investing but instead variations of gambling), and sometimes they might do o.k. with those in and out techniques, but it is likely that a majority of people getting in and out of something like bitcoin and failing/refusing to recognize bitcoin as a long term investment are not going to be able to advantage themselves by taking a more prudent/practical approach that might well be aggressive towards their bitcoin investment without crossing into overly aggressiveness.

So anyone who had been investing into bitcoin in a kind of solid way (such as using regular DCA buying) since early 2017 is likely doing quite well right now.  Take a person who had invested $100 per week since January 2017, by now such a person would have invested around $35k and would have accumulated right around 5.3 BTC, so surely not a bad place to be, even for someone who might have had some periods of high cost BTC and low cost BTC throughout that whole period.

So yeah there are ways to describe people who were not consistent and who bought their BTC high and sold low, but those are likely not problems with BTC because you can tinker around with that same DCA website variables that I had linked in order to see that the longer that you are investing into BTC, then more likely it becomes that you are going to end up being in profits, and sure maybe the person who has been DCA investing into BTC for only 2-3 years (or who got into BTC when BTC prices were going above $30k in early 2021) might barely be at break even BTC costs per BTC as compared with BTC prices, and might not even be in profits after nearly 3 years in bitcoin. but still does not seem to be a bad place to be, even if we look at a person who might have started buying $100 worth of BTC since January 2021, and such a person may well have ended up putting close to $14k into BT and have right around 0.5 BTC right now.. so not quite in profits.. and barely break even if we get back up to $28k... but still does not seem to be a bad place to be in terms of having hedges and having options.


Well, sure people might well be living paycheck to paycheck, but people do not tend to get paid daily, so maybe they get paid weekly, monthly or twice a month, and so they have to budget for their expenses for the whole month. .in which they might have daily allowances and/or some ways of measuring their expenses in order to figure out how much they can spend based on how much they make.
 

You did not even get my example correct.  I said that the guy had bought with $5k, and then around 6 months later, he came back and got around $2k for that, and it was a bit of a sad situation, but he has to take responsibility for his own finances, and if he did not have $5k to invest into bitcoin, then probably he should not have used that money, and maybe he would have been better off to buy BTC at $833 per month rather than $5k all at once, and maybe he should have ONLY been spending $500 per month ( which is the amount that he ended up losing, so we know that he could have afforded $500 per month since that is how much loss he ended up locking in). 

Maybe we can look at the DCA calculator in order to specifically look at his example.. and I had to go back, to the price charts for this.. so If he had bought $500 per month (or $116 per week) starting from January 15, 2018, then he would have accumulated a bit more than 0.36 BTC, which is actually more than he had bought for $5k at that same time in early January 2018.. so the amount of $3k that he ended up losing could have almost been like free BTC with a prudent, practical and ongoing BTC accumulation strategy that might involve something like DCA buying.

And yeah maybe he could have even invested his whole $5k over 6 months and he could have ended up getting more than 0.62 BTC and perhaps not panicking with the BTC price movements at that time which was around a 60% price drop at that time, and that we know ended up dropping even further for that period, since the BTC prices did end up going down to $3,124 in November 2018.. before returning back up and not returning to those sub $5k prices, except in the March 2020 crash event.


There's a positive answer if you are willing to open up your eyes and figure out to deal with volatility, since one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is that it is going to continue to be volatile, and there are ways to deal with that in order to see the positivity of the matter both financially and psychologically.

I am starting to question the extent to which any of us should be tolerating these kinds of posts comparing Binance to FTX, and maybe they deserve their own thread - because not ONLY are they likely bullshit government sponsored kinds of claims (even if the people who are making such claims do not realize that they are engaged in bullshit FUD spreading), but they are also off topic for this particular thread.. so maybe there is a "Binance is a slow train wreck thread?"  

Even though mostly I don't believe those bullshit talking points which seem to be similar to the ones made about Tether (USDT) since about 2016 or so, I would still watch and even likely participate in such a "Binance is a slow train wreck thread."

Probably, a thread like this one, should be attempting to focus on what the fuck is happening with FTX and the various shenanigans therein (and there are a lot of them, so why get so easily distracted, there is not a shortage of FTX materials and connections and threads of evidence that likely could be discussed and unravelled), rather than getting distracted into supposed Binance comparisons that may or may not even exist in reality.

I am going to start out by saying that there are surely quite a few members who seem to be fighting the scenario that OP presented such as using a DEX instead of a CEX, and proclaiming that the solution to OP's problems is to get a bitcoin job and even to join a signature campaign, which OP may or may not be able to do any of those kinds of things in the short-term - or at least in a practical sense, even though they are not necessarily bad suggestions, they just aren't the scenario that OP presented in order to deal with his actual facts on the ground.

OP is largely correct about the Binance withdrawal fees if using segwit versus non segwit withdrawing.  

Coin/Token       Network                        Minimum Withdrawal       Withdrawal Fee
BTC                 Bitcoin                               0.0002                               0.00007

                      BTC(SegWit)                      0.001                                 0.0005

                     Lightning Network               0.000005                           0.000001

https://www.binance.com/en/fee/cryptoFee    

So it can be a bit confusing to make sure that you are using a non-segwit bitcoin address in order to receive cheaper fees, rather than the 0.0005 BTC fees.

I am not personally against keeping some funds on exchanges, and if OP is merely buying between $50 and $100 per month on the exchange, then I have no problem letting that amount of BTC stored to build up between $500 and $1k before withdrawing it, and of course these are discretionary matters regarding how comforable any of us might be in terms of how much value to keep on an exchange and also one of the powerful things about bitcoin is having our own personal stash, so it will be important to also have a personal stash that is separate from anything held on exchanges, and perhaps the longer that we are in, the lower percentage of our overall stash would be held on exchanges and./or with third parties in any kind of way.


This is not really called DCA.  Instead you are describing a practice that would be some form of buying on dips, and surely I have no problem with the idea of buying on dips, but the practice of DCA has the potential to get a BTC newbie into building up a BTC stash without fucking around with trying to figure out the BTC price and whether it is a dip or not, and how much of a dip and whether or not it is going to keep dipping.  Sure, if any newbie has time to figure out those kinds of things, then there may be some advantages inn terms of buying some of the BTC cheaper, but there also could be risks if the newbie fails to buy enough because s/he is too busy getting greedy instead of just persistently and consistently stacking in order to build up the BTC holdings, and then maybe after 3-6 years of consistently and persistently stacking BTC, then maybe at that point, there might be some additional luxury in which strategizing to wait for dips might be an o.k. approach, even if waiting for dips might not be that great of a BTC accumulation approach for someone who does not have any BTC and/or does not have many BTCs (i.e. low coiners and no coiners).


I agree with this.  Sure, if someone is able to find ways to earn BTC, then no problems with that, yet I recall so many people back in 2014, 2015 and 2016 who were fucking around with signature campaigns and other ways to earn BTC, and they were bragging that they never bought any BTC, and yeah, they ended up with 2-5 BTC that they got for free, and maybe they could have easily ended up with more than 20 or 30 BTC if they had been buying BTC and or figuring out ways to increase their fiat income in order that they could use the extra money to buy BTC.  Remember in 2015, BTC was in the mid $200s for most of the year, so $25k spent on BTC would have resulted in 100 BTC.. and so $5k could have gotten you 20 BTC.


I doubt anyone here should be giving legal advice, and for sure, legality is going to vary from location to location, and sometimes governments regulate or overly regulate and/or ban things like bitcoin, so each of us has to make choices regarding how we are personally going to deal with those kinds of issues, and sometimes governments end up fucking their citizens through their "anti-crypto" laws, which also might include bitcoin in what they are prohibiting in one way or another.


That sounds like a good problem to have... .I have that referred to GazetaBitcoin thread on my list of threads to look at, too.


Yeah. .it is not always easy to find someone in order to both transact directly and who might want to transact with you that would end up being cheaper in terms of fees... and then also, if you are using an exchange to buy at a time of your own choosing, you can set your prices, but if you are dealing with another person, there may be timing issues, and no one is going to be on call to sell you bitcoin at the exact moment that you want, and they likely are going to prefer that the BTC prices are at a stable place when the transact with you rather than if the prices are moving around a lot.


I have never done that either, and I would imagine that if you are not very well known on the forum, some members are not going to want to transact with you until you have shown yourself to be reliable... and sometimes it might not be clear about the process of transacting, which is one of the advantages of in person transactions with cash, if you are ablle to find anyone to transact in that way.


I am not sure if lightning network completely resolves your problem, except you end up getting your BTC off of Binance with a relatively low fee, but then you still would like to ultimately move those funds to an onchain BTC wallet rather than keeping them on a lightning network wallet, so maybe using lighting network would allow you to set your own fees if you are moving your funds from your lightning wallet to an online wallet and trying to time when the fees would be best... .  

I have been using Phoenix and Breez for my lighting network wallets, but I have not really moved funds back and forth between my lightning network wallet and then to an on-chain wallet.

Wow!!!!  Only 980 posts and you be toast...

Of course, you will continue to post, but maybe even buddy is posting around 2x the number of Phillipma1957 posts.

So 2,000 hours would be right around early 2024 - but he may well even get you in November or December 2023.

I don't know why any member (bot, farmer, twit, twat and/or otherwise) would be scared off by daddy dildah...

but whatever, it is what it is in terms of it seeming to have become a lot quieter in these here parts in recent times.


Just from the contents, seems like he read it, but difficult to prove beyond making a reasonable inference.. and it seems that even a snot nosed little brat like you (who still has not wiped grandma's milk off his chin) is capable of making reasonable inferences from time to time.


Fair enough, but I sense that there is quite a bit that I have been hearing outside of this thread in recent times, and surely I don't have time to be posting in these here parts about everything that I hear and find out about king daddy in udder dee parts.


there have always been other bitcoin-related news sources, and many times the more important angles would end up getting discussed and/or crossed-posted in this thread... .. while at the same times, there have been times in which members get bored and go away and the main things we get are tumble weeds and a few scragglers... so it may be too soon to conclude that members would not return during periods of greater BTC price action.. yet I am not even going to claim that price action is not interesting.. even now, we had a little fake-out uppity last week, but it is not like nothing is going on, since we have been dancing with the lower end of the don't wake me up zone for nearly three weeks.

You sound retarded... and as a disingenuine poster.

Everyone is responsible for their own timing in regards to when to get into bitcoin and how to get into bitcoin, and neither the seller nor the buyer is more able to predict the future, even if your assumption might be correct that the person holding BTC likely knows more about bitcoin than the person buying the BTC, especially if the buyer is a newbie and the seller happens to have been in bitcoin for several years, but even the asymmetric knowledge does not cause the transaction to be immoral or unethical or even unfair to the buyer.

I recall in about 2017, a person came to me, and he bought around $5k worth of bitcoin and the BTC price was then around $15k, so let's say that he got around 0.333 BTC for the amount that he gave me, and about 6 months later he came back to me, and the BTC price was around $6k, and he told me that he wanted to sell his BTC back to me. I told him that I thought that it was a bad idea.  I told him that if he had been in for the long term when he bought then he should either just wait it out or he should be buying more BTC and not selling BTC, yet he told me that he needed the money, and so I told him no problem.  I will buy back his BTC, so I ended up giving him right around $2k for the same BTC that he had bought for $5k...and I am not even sure what happened to him because I had ONLY met him for those two transactions and he is the one who would be responsible for his decisions regarding when to buy and when to sell, and I personally was an overall buyer, since any time that I sold bitcoin during those kinds of times, I would replace my bitcoin (buy and replace), so my selling and then subsequently buying bitcoin from him did not really make much of a difference to me in terms of my overall BTC balance at that time, except maybe I would have had skimmed a few percentage points off the top in order to accumulate a bit more BTC out of the deal.


It's quite probable that the invention and introduction of bitcoin results in an increasing of the size of the pie because more kinds of economic activities become possible and greater number of human activities and development are also made possible through several of the contributions of bitcoin into society.


You (SmartGold01) are likely being overly generous to be suggesting that DrBeer is actually correct about anything meaningful and/or materially relevant.. but hey you are free to come to your own conclusions regarding the arguable value, if any, of DrBeer's posts.

Personally, I don't have any problem with the idea of ongoingly looking at the BTC price and the value of your overall BTC holdings as compared to fiat, and even part of the sentiment of this thread involves considering the extent to which there might be some value in terms of trying to time dips versus just buying BTC regularly without much if any reference to the price, and I have difficulties considering that both might not be done and/or accomplished without necessarily devolving into trading practices and/or panicking based on BTC price moves.

I recall that my first year and a half or so and maybe more I would manually make my BTC buys, and once I started to use automatic buys that were based on hitting the buy price (also known as limited buy orders), then that became easier to accomplish both manual buys and automatic buys that were based on certain price points... and maybe even less often having to use BTC price alarms in order to trigger me to make sure that I manually buy when the BTC price goes to a certain threshold of my interest.

In 2015, there were even several times in which I looked at my BTC holdings, and I would see that my average cost per BTC would have been something like $580; however, if the BTC price was then in the mid $200s or even lower, I would consider that whatever amount of bitcoin that I bought would be less than half the price of the average cost of my overall BTC holdings, and I would consider that each purchase that I made would bring down my average cost per BTC.. and it took almost the whole of 2015 to bring my average cost per BTC down from $580 and down to around $500 per BTC.. and so then by the end of October / beginning of November 2015, when the BTC price went shooting up from $300-ish to $500-ish, I almost started to panic (well I did end up panic buying at around $500 - so embarrassing) because the BTC price was going to end up being higher than my average cost per BTC, so there was a kind of good feeling that came from buying BTC and bringing down my average cost per BTC with each BTC purchase.

You are speaking quite generally and vaguely EluguHcman, and even though ideas of this thread could be used for businesses or even governments, I was not attempting to add those kinds of additional complexities into various investment ideas for the consideration of individuals and/or their thinking about the inclusion of bitcoin in their own investment portfolios.

Are you actually considering my thread in terms of your own business, or maybe if you have some ideas regarding your own individual circumstances, we can try to apply some of my ideas to your situation if you would like to share some of that in this thread  and sure, there are no needs to reveal private information - and even if you want to talk about the circumstances of a friend, or a hypothetical person, then maybe we would have something more concrete to discuss in terms of how we might consider involving bitcoin into the mix - even if you might be considering the situation of a business - which does have the potential to bring about some of its own business specific complexities.. but in the end we still are likely boiling down to the ability to invest into bitcoin likely comes after accounting for expenses and income and would mostly come from extra income in order to stay within the realm of investing rather than gambling as you seem to have alluded to that kind of problem that anyone could have with his/her bitcoin investment approach.

I am surely not opposed to more of a hybrid approach, but a newbie might not really be in much of a position to  figure out when the dip might come during the month, so such newbie may well be better off to buy his/her $100 worth of BTC every week rather trying to figure out when during the month to buy $400, if she/he were going to try to time the buy for a dip during the month. 

And sure another thing might be trying to have enough time and/or to watch the BTC price at various times during the month... It is probably not a big deal either way, but it might even become more psychologically draining if there might be thoughts that the budget is around $2,600 for 6 months (which is $100 per week), and then trying to figure out the various points during those 6 months in which it might be a good idea to try to deploy the buys...

...and we could come up with quite a few scenarios to show that maybe a person might not have a lump sum available right from the start, but if s/he waits for 6 months s/he could be buying BTC every week, but s/he might be able to hold back on the quantity of some of those BTC buys and to figure out various strategic places in which price dips had taken place... and so if the buying had been held back for 6 months, then maybe a lump sum would be available, and might it have had not been better just to buy as the money is coming in rather than holding back some of it, and the answer might well be difficult to figure out where BTC is at in its cycle or whether it might be in a corrective phase or in a going up phase.


How ironic that Buddy and Richy_T seem to show up right around the same time.

Have you ever seen them in a room together, though?

DCAing when it is going down seems to be a great time to be DCA'ing, even though it could take a while to get back into profits... so yeah peeps can vary in terms of how they see these kinds of situations and which strategies might work better, even though many times, it is not easy to really know if the price has yet reached its bottom, but sometimes it does become more apparent that the BTC price is moving down in such a way that more down becomes quite likely (if not apparent, but still not guaranteed).

I am not sure if it is really fair to blame DCA on the ramifications that come from extreme levels of overinvesting (and to be clear, it seems that we are referring to the Mindrust situation - which is a never ending great example of what can happen to reasonable normies during a downward BTC price spiraling situation), and overinvesting can come from either lump sum investing (and not accounting for dip possibilities) as well as overlyinvesting in terms of DCA in which money runs out, but the assumption of further down does not run out, so there may well be some belief that the ONLY thing that can be done is to sell your BTC when you have had DCAed in but you believe that the BTC price is going to continue to drop... which likely ends up bringing bad results, even though it seems like the best of things to do.

No matter what BTC accumulation strategy that we employ or even combination of BTC accumulation strategies that might even involve attempts at BTC portfolio maintenance after we believe that we have already largely arrived at our BTC accumulation target levels... we frequently have to determine how aggressive that we are able to be without over doing it, and by the way with mindrust, he even admitted that he had gotten up into 40%-ish BTC in his investment portfolio, even though he admitted that 10% or maybe 20% at that time, should have had been the tops of his allocation levels into BTC.. but he seemed unable to control himself, even though he admitted that he knew that he was way over overinvested.. not just a little bit over invested by a few percentage points.. but instead like more than double the levels that he had pretty good ideas about being the more practical and/or prudent approach to his BTC accumulation target levels..

So I am not even against over investing to some extent, but there are extremes that need to be considered that likely can happen no matter what kinds of methods any of us might employ in our BTC accumulation strategies.

And maybe the mindrust example can also show that artificial and somewhat arbitrary selection of target BTC accumulation levels of wanting to get to 10 BTC is not healthy. especially maybe when it is likely known that he should only have about 5-7 BTC at most in his BTC portfolio... based on his own then financial circumstances.. including maybe a kind of need to defer with some of the BTC accumulation if the budget did not really allow for that quantity of BTC accumulation.

Many of us likely realize that it can be frustrating for a lot of us, even if we might feel that we employed pretty decent BTC accumulation strategies, but the BTC price keeps dropping, and we don't have any money left to buy more BTC. but we also could be at a variety of points in terms of maybe still being in profits with our BTC stash and wanting to preserve whatever profits that we still have while the BTC price is dropping, so surely guys can end up engaging in all kinds of mental gymnastics in order to deviate from their original plan and to believe that a new plan would be better to carry out.. which ends up not working out so well.. but it is a gamble, and no one says that selling on the way down might not end up working out, from time to time. even though it is most likely the opposite of what any of us should be doing and/or planning to do during BTC dips, especially when the dips are at, near or even below historical low indications, that might include the 200-week moving average and/or other bottom indicators.... even when the BTC price surely might continue to drop more.

Well of course, we can look at the charts and see that a kind of strategy that involves stocking up around 6 months before the halvening and then selling around 18 months after the halvening is likely to beat DCA (as Phil's various posts show).. .but surely there are a few assumptions contained therein that involve normies really having lump sums that they they are able to move around value like that (meaning in and out of BTC), and then would we end up being rigid in our employing time as a factor.  

Of course, the timing of BTC's performance could end up getting manipulated.  I don't really like the idea of buying a bunch and selling a bunch and then anticipating being able to buy back lower, even though surely it may well end up paying off.. even though maybe if you do something like this with 25% of your BTC stash, then maybe that would be a kind of compromise approach that is not as objectionable to my own sense of how to manage your BTC holdings by mostly HODLing them rather than fucking around with getting out and anticipating being able to get back in.

Another thing is that playing around with lump sum might make more sense than DCAing after you have already built up you BTC holdings, and how do you build it up in the first place may well better involve some kind of a DCA approach with significant portions of your funds - with the passage of time.

Starting a strategy right now is likely going to depend on what you have going on with your own particulars, so if we assume someone might have a $100k investment portfolio that s/he has built up over 10 years, and then s/he already has $10k that s/he is willing to invest into BTC, but then maybe s/he also has around $1k per month of extra cash that is coming in that s/he is able to invest into bitcoin, so in the next 6 months, s/he has $16k that can go into BTC.

How is such a hypothetical person going to get BTC exposure?  maybe 1/3 right away, 1/3 DCA and 1/3  buying on dips would be a kind of practical default rather than just putting $10k into BTC right away .. but the $10k right away and then the $250 per week divided between DCA and buying on dips is not a bad idea either, except spending the $10k available right away into BTC does not leave any dry powder to be able to buy BTC on dips in the event that dips might happen from here.

What would Jesus do?

Ok. .. I take that back..

We are talking about how to proportion our BTC allocations that involve how much to put into BTC right now and is that enough to put $10k in right away in regards to our cashflow coming in that we may or may not choose to put into BTC or maybe just put into our emergency fund since we already bought $10k worth of BTC?  

and then are we going to save any of that cash in our emergency funds for the potential of buying BTC on further dips?  

I would hate to come into BTC with a plan that assumes that I am buying at the bottom, even if the current BTC price does seem pretty low, including that our current BTC price of $25,900-ish is currently right around $1,700 below the 200-week moving average, which does already seem to be pretty low, but it seems that it would be foolish of me to presume our current BTC price to be the bottom, even though it may well end up being the bottom.. and by the way, I just noticed that the 200-week moving average is currently ONLY moving up about $11 per day, so over the past few weeks little by little, the UPpity slope of the 200-week moving average is getting less and less steep...


It's mentally and financially attractive to engage in DCA rather than lump sum (including practicalities of the real world rather than fantasies about having funds available that are not available), and DCA practices also may well end up allowing someone to be more aggressive in their BTC accumulation as compared with lump summing it, which is more than just mentally comfortable but ends up resulting in the concrete and material buying of more cornz that ends up paying off, if the BTC price ends up going up.

For example, we should be able to conclude that it would be materially and substantially better (even though also mentally better too) (even though not as good in terms of percentage returns) to right now have 100 BTC accumulated and in our private bitcoin wallet at an average price of $1,000 ($100k invested) rather than having had 20 BTC accumulated at an average price of $350 ($7k).  Which would you rather have?.. oh and maybe the examples should not be so extreme, but maybe the aggressive DCA-er might have ONLY been able to get around 50 BTC at an average of $1k each (so for $50k), but still I think that the examples show real life abilities to be more aggressive over a period of time that has good chances of resulting in the accumulation of more BTC.

Do you think that I am creating a strawman? to be showing a difference between hypothetically whimpy and hypothetically more aggressive and proclaiming that the DCA approach has allowed for the hypothetically more aggressive to be able to follow through with a more aggressive approach to his/her BTC accumulation as compared to the lump summer who may well be engaging in his/her lump summing because s/he is not as convicted about his/her investment into BTC and s/he is distracted into other investments, and DCA likely results in more potential for ongoing conviction in part that the psychologically comfortable facilitates abilities to be more aggressive that ends up materially and substantially paying off.

Strange way of saying it.... crypto market?  hm?  is there such a thing?  why describe such a thing in order to attempt to figure out where bitcoin's prices might be established?


You might be right that investors become nervous by volatility, especially if they do not know how to prepare themselves (or their portfolios) for such volatility.. that in bitcoin is about as close to inevitable as anything might be in bitcoin..

In other words, one of the things most guaranteed in bitcoin is likely that it is going to continue to be volatile.

so if we know that bitcoin is going to be volatile, then it likely is a good thing to plan and prepare for such inevitable volatility.

I would agree with any assertion that points out that many times investors expect bitcoin to be less volatile than it ends up being, or they become disappointed that the volatility is in the direction that they had not anticipated, but that largely goes to their own lack of sufficient planning and/or preparing.

In regards, to your seemingly placing traders and investors in the same category in terms of their expectations, I doubt that is very accurate, since traders tend to love volatility and should be able to make money in either direction, yet frequently traders will find themselves on the wrong side of volatility because an overwhelming majority are likely not sufficiently preparing themselves or their portfolios in a way that they are able to make money no matter what.  Sure there are a small number of traders who are able to make money no matter what, but sometimes even the generally BIG winners get their trades wrong.

So traders are not equal in their abilities, and there likely are times in which traders are more aggressive or less aggressive in their own approaches that might even include their choices to not attempt to trade certain kinds of patterns and/or certain places in which they might have less confidence in placing a trade.. even though sometimes their own choices to "sit out the market" may well end up causing them to "fuck themselves" out of the times in which BTC prices might end up going up appreciably, and they "believe" that they are sitting out the market when the fact of the matter is that they are in dollars instead of bitcoin and failing/refusing to be in bitcoin during times in which they should be in bitcoin, which likely is most times, since nobody knows when the BTC price is going to go on an exponential UPpity run that causes it to be difficult to figure out when to get in, if you are not already in.  In the past, there are many times in which we have witnessed these kinds of unexpected UPpity bitcoin price performances.


But what is the trend that you believe bitcoin to be in?  Do you know?  


There are a lot of ways to trade, but so what?  We are not even talking about trading in this thread... and diversity in what sense?  Are you referring to shitcoins or trading some other things besides bitcoin?  or are you talking about various kinds of bitcoin trading (financialization) products?  Yeah, there are a lot of things that affect the BTC prices, and some of those might have to do with the various ways in which BTC is traded and also the various ways in which some products are not backed by the BTC that they claim to be trading.


That's not true.

Most traders do not make money, even though they might have periods in which they make money.  There are also a lot of ideas out there that trading is the way to make money when you do not have very much money, but that is not very likely to be true either.. at least not for the vast majority of traders.

Part of the reason that this thread has been so popular is that we are tending to talk about various kinds of ways to make money with bitcoin (and especially in the long run) by engaging in strategies that are against trading and more aligned towards BTC accumulation, even though surely, we have this thread through our discussion (including the topic of the thread) that involves discussing considerations regarding the extent to which there might be some value in attempting to figure out BTC price dips in order to take advantage of those dips to potentially be able to get more BTC than if you had just bought BTC regularly without trying to figure out the dips.


That is not a bad point, Macoach. 

I have found that there are frequently people who do not really understand bitcoin very well, and they value their profits in dollars, so they figure that any time that they cash out at a positive price, then they had done a good trade, yet many times these same people end up leaving a lot of potential profits on the table because they end up cashing out of way too many bitcoin and way too soon.. so even if they value their profits in dollars, they end up miscalculating either the UPside potentials of bitcoin, or they just might not even know enough about bitcoin in order to figure out some kind of a level of bitcoin that they might be willing to continue to hold, even if the BTC price might end up going down rather than up.

I am not sure if I understand the comment from Max Keiser suggesting that Bitboy might be going to jail.  Are there charges outstanding?

Oh?   Ok...  I just did some internet sleuthing and it looks like Bitboy might be in trouble for skipping court appearances... perhaps?  and I suppose including other scandalous behaviors that involve promoting securities (various shitcoins and promoting FTX).


Such as this article from April.


That hardly makes any sense Biodom.  I am not sure how you sometimes come up with your fantastical frameworks, even though maybe my number ends up being similar when I am describing bottom prices (projected 200-week moving average) as:

05/31/2033         $449,033.53

and

11/29/2033          $492,561.90

You are straight out saying that since BTC prices went up 178x over the past 10 years, why might the BTC prices go up another 178x in the next 10 years.. which just seems crazy to consider a similar level of expoential growth.. and maybe if we just stuck to 100x, that still gets bitcoin prices to $2.5 million-ish in 10 years.

Ok.. even though it sounds crazy.. maybe it still kind of makes sense when looking at the numbers.


I can only go based on my own bottom charts.. and am already thinking that I might have to adjust them downity because I am thinking that my constant might not slope down enough.. even though surely our world-wide adoption of bitcoin does still have some pretty low numbers that are likely in the less than 1% of word-wide adoption of bitcoin currently. maybe even less than 0.5% but I hate to use that number, since I was using the 0.5% number in 2017, so we better have had gotten some growth in the number of users and the kinds of BTC users since 2017, no?


Just a feeling based on squigglies on a chart?

That makes no sense.


Why would daddy dildah kneel before anyone?

That's a very good question, if I must say so my lil selfie.



Wow!!!

You might be right about the 7-8 more months of stacking.. even though. .it seems like an expectation that expects too much from dee daddy king..

You are going to end up catching up to where mindrust was, right before he busted.  

 

Remember he was buying on the way down from $8k to $7k to $6k and maybe even some in the $5ks, but when it got into the mid-$4ks, he sold everything...and none of us could believe it.

And when we asked him why he was cheering for the BTC price to go down so much, and then he was disappointed when the BTC price actually went down into the $4ks, and he said that he did not really mean what he had been cheering.. He was just faking it..


Mine might not be as interesting as yours... ^**

**Actually, even though your OPsec kind of ongoingly sucks for giving us some of these kinds of specifics, I must say that I just realized, and I must praise you for not having your buy orders at round numbers... I personally believe that is a pretty good practice...in terms of increasing the likelihood that they get filled and other orders do not stack up exactly where your orders are at

...since mine are right around every $500 from $30k down to $25.5k (so far in this run), and sure maybe I am cheating because:

1) almost none of the money that I am using is new money
          (except for quite a bit that I had bought in that one little dip period in November 2022 every $500 between about 18.5k and $15.5k..) and then

2) I had a June 20, 2023 cheat from my Binance US crash UPpity to $129k and I am still using that icing on the cake money.. I think that so far, I probably used around 73.828125% of it (more or less) for buying back BTC.. but even the remaining 26.171875% of it is a pretty decent chunk of reserves for just giving some various kinds of cushions in my cash available and so some of it is contained in my BTC buy orders down to $13k-ish.. that I hope I don't have to use any of those funds in order that I will be able to spend that extra windfall money at some future date on H, L & B.



King daddy is not bound by historical expectations of its price performance based on calendar year (including but not limited to months of the year) indicators.  

So good luck with such nonsense voodoo science frameworks that may or may not end up playing out for anyone who relies on such nonsense in any kind of material/meaningful way.

Binance and FTX are not even close to the same, so hope you do not get too distracted by your US Gov talking points.

I frequently find it quite distracting when people make these kinds of assertions regarding outrageous scenarios that might happen, and of course, we are going to be best served if we are putting most of our efforts into preparing for various base-case scenarios rather than failing/refusing to prepare because "anything could happen," so those kinds of dumbass statements are sometimes used in order to justify not preparing at all.   


That's right.. that's more reasonable. You should be attempting to prepare for various base case scenarios that are more likely to play out.


It sounds like you are gambling.  Fuck shitcoins.  Think about your bitcoin strategy.


You should not invest into bitcoin or anything else based on what you believe everyone else is doing... and yeah, maybe various UPpity bitcoin scenarios have good chances for playing out in the coming 1-2 years... such as going to ATHs and going beyond, such as up into the $200ks and maybe higher than $500k, but surely none of these UPpity scenarios are guaranteed, but they are within the realm of possibilities for bitcoin... which means that they may happen and they might not happen.

Yes, these are various ways that businesses "legitimately" are able to get out of paying people who deserve to receive their payments ... Sure there may well be sometimes that the payment needs to be refused based on lack of compliance, yet you are right there is something scandalous about those kinds of practices happening. and similar when insurance companies figure out ways to not pay claims based on technicalities.

Yep.. you sound like a dreamer.

If you want $1billion in 10 years, you better have somewhere in the ballpark of $10 million to $100 million right now, otherwise you are likely being unrealistic, and even getting $10 million up to $1 billion in 10 years would be quite a bit of a stretch... since that is 100x.   

I think that bitcoin is the best investment that I ever had and I been in it for nearly 10 years, and I am around 26x up on the amount that I had put into bitcoin, and so you still need a lot in order to get a lot, but even if I had put $10k into bitcoin, then I would have $260k, and I would have had to put in $100k in order to have $2.6 million... and I would have had to have invested around $38.5 million in order to have gotten my bitcoin up to $1 billion.

Oh?  You expect even greater returns than that?  but you don't have very much capital, right? 


Who cares about baseless dreams?

It seems better to figure out some kind of realistic plan and try to be realistic about it, even if you might be ambitious, but ambition within some concrete starting points.  What do you got?  Anything?  Anything?


Bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold, yet it is ONLY about 1/20th of the market cap of gold.

There is no need to try to figure out how long it might take for bitcoin to come to fair value relative to gold in order to realize that bitcoin is likely going to be eating gold's lunch in the coming 10-30 years - while at the same time, it could take 100 to 200 years for bitcoin and gold to get closer to their fair market values relative to one another... while at the same time, you never know, it might happen faster, and it would suck to be overly bearish about bitcoin and to miss the opportunities to having at least enough bitcoin in order for that possible transition to work in your favor... and maybe you don't even need very much in order to benefit stupendously... even 1% allocation to bitcoin might work.. if you have a $100k investment portfolio, and you have only $1k of bitcoin, but if bitcoin ends up eating the lunch of a lot of the others, then that 1% may well end up outvaluing all of the others.

I doubt that you need to bet on bitcoin becoming a world reserve currency in order to profit stupendously from investing in it, while at the same time, there is nothing really saying that any other system even holds any kind of candle to it right now the way it stands as the soundest of monies including likely 1,000x greater than gold while being 1/20th gold's market cap, and while at the same time, it seems likely that gold is the second best in terms of sound monies that we might be able to assess as a possible next competitor to bitcoin.