First:   I find it a little irritating that you are continuing to build hypothesis and theories based on your incomplete analysis of the cost of BTC based on ONLY the cost of electricity.... which you have also conceded to be an incomplete analysis b/c you are attempting to simplify matters.  Accordingly, you seem to be engaged into a simplification that merely is either A) at best, based on a fantasy world or 2) at worst purposefully, spreading FUD.

Second:  are continuing to build Mass adoption is NOT "a" necessary solution to advancing current BTC prices.  There are enough large bitcoin players who are invested in BTC or who could jump into BTC and upward manipulate BTC prices into the $10k to $13K territory, if they were to want to and with a lot of the current levels of BTC adoption..  Additionally if BTC prices were to spike into that $10k to $13k direction, which surely is possible (but NOT guaranteed), there would be sufficient number of hype to cause new people to find out about BTC and to jump  onto the BTC train and to assist with the causing of that upward BTC price trajectory.

Third:  Even assuming your fantasy $150 BTC production costs, your point about miners needing to sell 1/2 their bitcoin at the current price to pay for electricity seems to assume that BTC prices may stay in this price range for an extended period of time or that miners are potentially going to go along with a business model in which they are selling currently mined BTC at the current prices.  On the contrary, I am of the understanding that a large number of current BTC miners are also speculating about the BTC prices and tend to be fairly bullish about BTC prices and the direction of BTC.  Accordingly, a large number of BTC miners would NOT be inclined, in the short-term, maybe even next 6-12 months to sell currently mined BTC at these current prices (of course there are exceptions to any rule and there will be some miners whose hands will be forced and/or who are NOT bullish about the long term direction and/or prices of BTC).  In other words, you seem to be engaged in a form of fantasy thinking to be suggesting that a large number of miners are engaged in a practice to sell their BTC at current prices and engaging in a business practice based on such conceptions of current BTC prices being somehow reflective of long term BTC prices.

Who is the "us" to whom you refer?

BTC-e has been running a couple of years, and no one knows the principles for that exchange (and overall BTC-e does NOT have any major cloud over it, at least currently)

Based on my fairly quick perusal, whatever point(s) your making, those points do NOT seem to be based on very complete cost calculations.... that's my main point in responding to your posts.

What if?    If the electricity is free then there are more profits; and those are incentives for mining and incentives for dumping coins, but mining costs also are NOT a reflection of the totality of factors that affect current bitcoin prices.

In other words, you took one of the costs (electricity), and calculated that one cost, and then you thereafter concluded that the one cost (electricity) was all the costs to produce a bitcoin while conceding that you had failed and/or refused to account for any additional costs (including other operational costs and equipment costs).


In other words, you have NOT provided a complete and/or accurate accounting for how much it costs to produce an actual bitcoin in modern and/or real world times.  

Numbers gotten from:    out of ass...   

whatever your country, there will be varying rules about what is taxable or NOT, and how it is taxed.  So for example, if something is supposed to be reported as taxable income, then you can also count that as taxable loss, but usually you can ONLY offset losses from taxable income from other sources in order to reduce your total tax liability (accordingly there would be a limit for how much you can claim each year and some countries are going to allow some roll over of losses into subsequent years).  Accordingly, there may be ways to get out of paying taxes or to minimize the amount paid, and certainly, it seems that some countries do allow for escaping of taxes if the gain is realized outside of the country.  Certainly, the more money at stake may cause one to consider more creative ways to avoid or at least minimizing the quantity of taxes paid.

I get the sense that in the future, there are going to be a lot of bitcoiners persecuted and/or prosecuted for tax evasion... so hopefully, each of us can find means upon which we can reasonably minimize such persecutions and/or prosecutions (when we evolve into "the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.")

hehehehehe... what's the old country?  or at least what part of the world? 

Let's say that the posters reading this thread, woke up in 1-6 months and their coins were worth $2 million....   

Now, if you had already invested anywhere between $20k (100x appreciation) and $200k (10x appreciation), then that should be taken into account in order to figure out how quickly and by how much those coins had appreciated in such a short period of time.

Also, if BTC had appreciated so greatly in such a short period of time, then maybe posters reading this would feel inclined to cash out part of their BTC holdings rather than cashing out all of their holdings - because keeping some money in BTC would probably be a good idea, especially if BTC prices had already appreciated (again - like it has in the past) by so much... however, as well, one may consider taking some profits out of BTC with the expectation of putting some or all of those profits back into BTC at the right time and/or in the event that BTC prices go down (because of the ongoing expectation that BTC prices are going to rise again and that BTC is going to continue to be a good investment and/or storage of value vehicle  - and possibly considering a need to diversify some of the value, even while continuing to hold som of the value in BTC).

Accordingly, depending on one's investment and accounting methodology taxes may likely only be paid on the portion of the BTC that is cashed out.. and the capital gains portion of that which is cashed out... so this may vary depending on the amount of the gains and on the country rules in which a person is cashing out... if the person is going to remain in that country while cashing out.

The number would be different for different people - depending on their timeline etc. Some people would consider themselves rich or fairly well off with $500,000 because potentially that could generate a passive income of $1,500 a month, and if the person wants to eat into the principle, the person could have a decent income off of $500K for several years.. or alternatively, if a person only has one year to live, and they have $500k or even a lesser amount, the person may feel rich b/c they are able to do whatever they want with that money for that year.

Other people may consider that the minimum for rich is either $10million or $20million, and I suppose those kinds of numbers depend upon the timeline and the expected lifestyle.

That plan might work out for you, possibly (but might be a long shot, too?).  To me, the kind of plan that you are outlining seems to be too passive of an approach, and it seems to be too small of a quantity of BTC.....

In other words, you seem to be thinking and/or playing BTC like some kind of 20-year lottery which maybe could work for your purposes, but that kind strategy does NOT necessarily seem like it would be the most wise and/or practical of an approach for a large number of other people who may be reading this thread and considering a BTC investment approach.

In that respect, it may be good to invest more (either incrementally or lump some) and to monitor more frequently (possibly once every 2-5 years) and even develop various contingency plans (at this point and during the various review and/or reconsideration points).

Who is Dave?

If NOT up, then we just buy more... NO big deal.... b/c it is going to go up sooner or later... and wanna be on board when such going up takes place.   

ME TOO!!!!!  At least, to the best of my mediocre BTC purchasing abilities. 

Recently, I became disconnected from some of my investment planning and monitoring Excel documents - and various references therein to my BTC investment funds that are projected to be available to me. 

I am still in the process of recovering my various BTC investment Excel documents, and as far as I can determine, I have about $1,600 this week for BTC purchases, and about an additional $2,600 available to me by this upcoming weekend to contribute to our BUY, BUY, BUY efforts.... 

To elaborate: If we BTC investors believe BTC prices are going lower, then we are likely inclined to save ourselves for purchasing BTC at the lowest possible price (and some of us may short or sell, but seems dangerous to me) - however, I rarely seem to get the feeling exactly for the exact price direction (that is part of my biasness in the bull-ish way of thinking). 

To repeat, in spite of my bullish inclinations, I have little to NO ability to predict the quantity of BTC that still may be in the hands of various bearwhales manipulators who remain inclined to continue their downward price battle to the extent that they are capable of achieving such.. and their ability to get others to jump on board with them to get and/or to keep BTC prices moving downwardly.. Also,  their ability to potentially overwhelm or at least achieve yielding and acceptance of the bullwhales to allow such downward BTC price manipulation.

Many of us bull-ish thinkers, are inclined to believe that in the end, there exist a sufficient number of truly capable bullwhales who are both disinclined to allow BTC prices to drop below a certain price point, and who would also be truly capable to bring to the table enough fiat funds to, on their own, push BTC prices well in excess of $10k per BTC... and in fact, they would likely NOT need to accomplish this upward BTC price manipulation on their own because many of us tend to believe that there are likely enough dollars on the sidelines and also enough willing investors on the sidelines who would also be willing to jump into a rising tide once the tide starts rising sufficiently to show that it is NOT likely to reverse in the near future... especially once BTC prices seem to be going up into the upper 3 digits and then likely thereafter into the $1k to $2k territory and beyond, with all the hoopla that will likely accompany such BTC price movement(s), once they start to occur (this year or next year or 2016?).

In a somber note, I can see why some regular people may be beginning to lose faith in the possibility of another upwardly inclined BTC price spurt.  In spite of a variety of positive news regarding BTC, there has been quite a bit fear-mongering and negative news spreading regarding aspects of BTC, from the likes of NOT NotPork and others of similar inclinations.  Yes, a lot of these kinds people want people to sell their BTC because they come to the belief that BTC is going "nowhere, but down."  Surely, the longer that prices linger in these lower territories and even get pushed down beyond expectations and put the BTC portfolios of newer investors considerably in the red, will cause quite a few of these newer investors to lose faith and lose confidence and lose staying power, b/c they were NOT mentally and/or financially prepared for such downward prices.

I am expecting some kind of high volume battle... we haven't had one of them for several days....

Yeah... I can feel it, too.  I am bitting my nails in anticipation, pretty soon I am going to have to move to actual finger bitting though. 

And, who said that it is impossible to herd cats? 

Thanks for this:  I just witnessed "on the internet" that it is possible to herd cats.

I think one central point is that even if NOT NotPorkchops goes away, there will be several more to take his place.. so in the end, can't really deter them (except maybe through ignoring most posts).  I agree with your sentiment that every once in a while it may be good to point out how full of shit NOT NotPorkchops and his ilk are...

But, sometimes I should NOT speak b/c from time to time, I am guilty of similar kinds of engaging with posters who are obviously either trolls or extremely disingenuous.