Agree 100% with Ribuck.

Prices are driven by bitcoin investors and probably all/ most of them have no intention to sell , which is expressed perfectly in the charts.

There is still a lot of upside in bitcoin forecast.

And this can be fostered if exchanges open up or existing ones make it easier to add funds.

Coming back to the original topic:

After I started a thread in the forexfactory.com forum, some people have jumped on board and have questions. I think it is a great opportunity to answer them and make the bitcoin idea more widespread.

Can someone help answering those questions?

Either
1) Please post the replies here and I will then copy them into the forexfactory forum   or
2) Please subscribe to the forum and then get active yourself.

Here are the questions/comments:

"Weird idea to generate coins, I try to understand their idea.
Somebody has to use our pc to generate coins. Who is that " somebody ".
And what about the privacy, can we trust that " somebody"?"


"To be successful they need absolutely a " Cyber army ""

Bubble talks also appeared in the late 1990s and the stock market rally still had huge legs.
From a sentiment point of view on bitcoin forecasts, the rally will only end if most people, including people here on the forum believe the rally won't end.

+1

I have talked recently to many people confirming that MtGox service and credibility is great.

Now we are in a forexfactory - thread with bitcoin forecast. It took me a while to get this done.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4152720#post4152720

Here is a special Interim Technical Bitcoin Forecast Update, given the acceleration of the rally (which develops as expected in previous updates: "surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible. Strong targets are 0.25 $, 0.50 $ and parity."

I wanted to share with you a longterm picture, now that (thanks to some heroes here: tcatm), we have a fantastic charting tool.

I have charted BTC in all USD over the past year. I used log scale, which, given the extend of the rally, is better than using normal charts.

Key question was to define a price target.

I constructed a parallel trend channel, which is derived from a very nice and almost ideal uptrend line connecting the lows. When looking at the upper trendline, price targets of 1.0 to 1.5 $ over the days/weeks are possible. Of course, this is not likely to happen in a straight line, but the parity target will be a magnet for prices.

Again, a correction / consolidation can happen as well, but as long as prices do not break 0.15-0.17, the upper targets are not unrealistic.

Next update Monday, Nov 8th.

this is the promised update on the bitcoin forecast.

I keep it very brief as technically norhing has changed.

The rally is underway and the next significant upside resistance is not easy to identify, as BTC/USD is making new alltimehighs almost on a daily basis.

Expect surprises on the upside in this exponentially rally. Even Usd-parity might be reached faster than expected.

Only a close below 0.173 would make me reassess the picture.

Next update monday.

look at the chart selecting "hourly" or 60min as time frequency.

Interim Update
- ticker -

* BTC/USD broke out above 0.2 and stays above
* Next target 0.25 (days) and 0.50 (days or weeks)
* only an hourly close below 0.173 changes this picture

thanks a ton. I will do when I find  a little bit more time

you are a master!
Now I have the proper tools for the Bitcoin technical analysis!
thanks

fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now we see intraday volumes. I will use your charts probably in the next technical update.

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

The overall picture does not change at all, despite today’s volatility. No signs of a BTC rally end.

Analysis Nov 2 (48h chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible.
Strong targets are 0.25 $, 0.50 $ and parity.

2. Short term update
Prices did a big spike down and up today. As MtGox does not display short term volumes (like 5, 15, 60 min prices plus associated volume), I can’t tell what exactly happened. It is clear that a few market participants can move prices significantly for a couple of minutes / hours until more people realize and step in to bring the market back in balance. This will change once more funds and players participate.
In any case, prices quickly returned to the trading range between 0.19-0.20 that was dominant over the past 2-3 days.
Next target is the breakout above 0.20 $.
If, instead, prices close below 0.173 for a couple of days, we may enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Friday, Nov 5th

Fair point.

 /... but WHO is doing that..?

Maybe we should provide an incentive.

thanks for the clarification.


What about adding new other ways than LR to add funds?

Thanks a lot! Much appreciated. 

Volume is dropping on the exchanges (MtGox, etc.).

What is the reason for it?
* is it that people hold on to their coins?
* is it that people spend their coins in games, other services, etc.?
* is it because MtGox does not accept new users? WHAT IS THE STATUS
* is it because MtGox only offers Liberty Reserve to add funds which itself takes ages to buy and is complicated?

I know it is tough and not easy and MtGox is doing a great job trying to work this out, but it would be good to see what the timeline is to re-establish a proper exchange (incl. make it open to new users and easy to add / withdraw funds).
maybe some other experts here can help.

thanks for perspective

Correlation predictions are sometimes dangerous. There may be good correlation of USD/EUR vs. stock indices for some time and suddenly things change...
As an example, watch the longterm dollar index vs Gold correlation. it has lived through all stages of almost +100% correlation to 50% (+no correlation) to -100% correlation.
Or take stocks vs. dollar index in the last 20 years. Or stocks vs. oil...

It is often best to just let the charts speak for themselves: BTC in USD is in a rally with high strength. Currently consolidating just under 0.2 and it looks that it is setting up for the breakout to the upside.

By the way.. if someone can tell me how to upload ONE file containing more charts, I would be happy to publish more, but I am wasting hours to try getting these files small enough to get under the maximum file size to attach here in this forum 

[/quote]

Many people -- myself included -- think dollar volume should be included alongside share volume, when showing stock market charts.

The same logic can easily be applied here.
[/quote]

Both, dollar volume and number of shares are things to look at, I agree. The former because of total value, the latter because higher unit volume is a sign of more liquid and often healthier markets.