Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[jgarzik]

If some commodity (bitcoin for example) has changed it's price significantly against some well established currency ($) shouldn't its trading volume decline? Because volume of 50 000 BTC at 0.06$ and 0.2$ represents proportionally different volume in $. It will stay the same only if the actual volume of the economy is larger.

Perhaps BTC exchangers should provide volume data in their other currencies? This will provide more realistic view in my opinion.

Many people -- myself included -- think dollar volume should be included alongside share volume, when showing stock market charts.

The same logic can easily be applied here.

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[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Overall, the forecast is well on track. No signs of an end in the BTC rally.
As indicated in the last update, after consolidating between 0.191 $ and 0.173 $ (sideways range), prices broke out to the upside and quickly reached almost 0.2 $, again.

Analysis Nov 1 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook (no change)
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible.

2. Short term update
Next is the breakout above 0.20 $, which, if it occurs, should be accompanied with strong buying pressure and rising volumes.
There is currently still a divergence of volume (down) and prices (up) (see last update), but we know that these conditions can persist for a long time, and prices could rise much more than it seems rational.
If, instead, prices break 0.173, we may still enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Wednesday, Nov 3rd .


Of note: I am adding a special update on Gold spot ($) today: After the 1387.6 $ high, prices turned down. Unless this high is exceeded, prices should correct deeper. First targets are 1150 and 1050, which at least will likely spark near term bounces.
Let me know via donating if you like this extension of service.

[S3052]

[/quote]

Many people -- myself included -- think dollar volume should be included alongside share volume, when showing stock market charts.

The same logic can easily be applied here.
[/quote]

Both, dollar volume and number of shares are things to look at, I agree. The former because of total value, the latter because higher unit volume is a sign of more liquid and often healthier markets.

[S3052]

By the way.. if someone can tell me how to upload ONE file containing more charts, I would be happy to publish more, but I am wasting hours to try getting these files small enough to get under the maximum file size to attach here in this forum 

[Anonymous]

By the way.. if someone can tell me how to upload ONE file containing more charts, I would be happy to publish more, but I am wasting hours to try getting these files small enough to get under the maximum file size to attach here in this forum  

Perhaps you could link to an external file on a public dropbox? https://www.dropbox.com/help/16

Then you just move the file to the dropbox on your machine and it syncs to the web.

http://www.dropbox.com/referrals/NTc2ODM4MjM5  
  If you use that link we both get an extra 250mb of storage lol. (you get 2gb to start with.)
 
Here is the last pdf you created.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7683823/101101%20BTC.pdf

[Drifter]

What about using Google Docs? you can make the charts public and then just link us to the pages. Also, if ever necessary, you can have collaborators work with you on a document/spreadsheet/whatever.

[BrightAnarchist]

I actually am one of the few who believes that the USD is near to a major rally, so I'm wondering if that might have a slight bearish effect on Bitcoins relative to the USD. We aren't there yet though, but we'll just have to see if such a rally occurs how BTC reacts.

My thinking, however, is that the phenomina may be unrelated. Many assets go down when the USD goes up (and vice versa), but I think that's primarily due to the deleveraging/releveraging process. Nobody is borrowing USD to lever-up on Bitcoins, so I don't think they would be effected that greatly by a increase in dollar value.

The best argument for a long-term Bitcoin rally is actually fundamental. 21M Bitcoins is a very limited supply, so it doesn't take a huge amount of market penetration to revalue them much, much higher than today. Of course, like any market, it will be a rollar-coaster ride along the way.

So in conclusion I'm extremely bullish on BTC long term, but over the shorter term (a few months perhaps?), I'm waiting for some sort of a USD rally here just to see if there's any correlation at all with Bitcoin valuation.

What I'd really love to see is some momentum indicators on the charts to help time buy-ins

[FreeMoney]

I actually am one of the few who believes that the USD is near to a major rally, so I'm wondering if that might have a slight bearish effect on Bitcoins relative to the USD. We aren't there yet though, but we'll just have to see if such a rally occurs how BTC reacts.

My thinking, however, is that the phenomina may be unrelated. Many assets go down when the USD goes up (and vice versa), but I think that's primarily due to the deleveraging/releveraging process. Nobody is borrowing USD to lever-up on Bitcoins, so I don't think they would be effected that greatly by a increase in dollar value.

The best argument for a long-term Bitcoin rally is actually fundamental. 21M Bitcoins is a very limited supply, so it doesn't take a huge amount of market penetration to revalue them much, much higher than today. Of course, like any market, it will be a rollar-coaster ride along the way.

So in conclusion I'm extremely bullish on BTC long term, but over the shorter term (a few months perhaps?), I'm waiting for some sort of a USD rally here just to see if there's any correlation at all with Bitcoin valuation.

What I'd really love to see is some momentum indicators on the charts to help time buy-ins

Surely some people are buying a few extra coins instead of paying extra on their mortgage, CC, or whatever. This counts just as much as someone explicitly getting a loan to buy BTC, which I agree is probably not happening.

I'd add though that USD moves to the upside are going to be in the 0-50% range so bitcoin moves are going to swamp USD behavior. Until the dollar goes the other way then it will dominate until we don't think about prices in terms of dollars anymore.

[S3052]

Correlation predictions are sometimes dangerous. There may be good correlation of USD/EUR vs. stock indices for some time and suddenly things change...
As an example, watch the longterm dollar index vs Gold correlation. it has lived through all stages of almost +100% correlation to 50% (+no correlation) to -100% correlation.
Or take stocks vs. dollar index in the last 20 years. Or stocks vs. oil...

It is often best to just let the charts speak for themselves: BTC in USD is in a rally with high strength. Currently consolidating just under 0.2 and it looks that it is setting up for the breakout to the upside.

[xxmalouinxx]

I know I already said it, but I LOVE your analyze S3052, keep the good work =)

Malouin

[Anonymous]

Thanks S3052 you really break things down.

[S3052]

I know I already said it, but I LOVE your analyze S3052, keep the good work =)

Malouin

Thanks a lot! Much appreciated. 

[S3052]

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

The overall picture does not change at all, despite today’s volatility. No signs of a BTC rally end.

Analysis Nov 2 (48h chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible.
Strong targets are 0.25 $, 0.50 $ and parity.

2. Short term update
Prices did a big spike down and up today. As MtGox does not display short term volumes (like 5, 15, 60 min prices plus associated volume), I can’t tell what exactly happened. It is clear that a few market participants can move prices significantly for a couple of minutes / hours until more people realize and step in to bring the market back in balance. This will change once more funds and players participate.
In any case, prices quickly returned to the trading range between 0.19-0.20 that was dominant over the past 2-3 days.
Next target is the breakout above 0.20 $.
If, instead, prices close below 0.173 for a couple of days, we may enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Friday, Nov 5th

[FreeMoney]

http://www.mtgox.com/code/data/getTrades.php

This will tell you how much at every price, and time too I guess.

A little bit of crunching could make that page give up the $Vol too.

edit: bitcoinwatch is excellent, no need to use that link I guess. http://91.194.85.252/bitcoincharts/

[nanotube]

S3052, from your update today, you say "As MtGox does not display short term volumes (like 5, 15, 60 min prices plus associated volume), I can’t tell what exactly happened."

If you would like detailed transaction information, you can join the #bitcoin-market channel on freenode, which streams live transaction information for bitcoinmarket and mtgox.

If you are interested, I can send you a copy of the exact transaction info at the time the mtgox price fluctuations occurred today. But for the future... just join and hang out on the channel.

[S3052]

S3052, from your update today, you say "As MtGox does not display short term volumes (like 5, 15, 60 min prices plus associated volume), I can’t tell what exactly happened."

If you would like detailed transaction information, you can join the #bitcoin-market channel on freenode, which streams live transaction information for bitcoinmarket and mtgox.

If you are interested, I can send you a copy of the exact transaction info at the time the mtgox price fluctuations occurred today. But for the future... just join and hang out on the channel.

thanks a ton. I will do when I find  a little bit more time

[S3052]

Interim Update
- ticker -

* BTC/USD broke out above 0.2 and stays above
* Next target 0.25 (days) and 0.50 (days or weeks)
* only an hourly close below 0.173 changes this picture

[ribuck]

* only an hourly close below 0.173 changes this picture

S3052, what is an "hourly close" please?

[S3052]

look at the chart selecting "hourly" or 60min as time frequency.

[FreeMoney]

Obviously a 5 minute spike down at 2:30 isn't different than one at 2:58, so is two hourly closes implied or something?

Honestly, I can't see how it makes much difference whether the price stays down for 45 minutes or for 2:45 on something as thin as mtgox.

Not that it isn't a great market, I just think reading anything from hourly closes is hard considering that whether I check the market before I go to bed or not can change that.