As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Overall, the forecast is well on track. No signs of an end in the BTC rally.
As indicated in the last update, after consolidating between 0.191 $ and 0.173 $ (sideways range), prices broke out to the upside and quickly reached almost 0.2 $, again.

Analysis Nov 1 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook (no change)
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible.

2. Short term update
Next is the breakout above 0.20 $, which, if it occurs, should be accompanied with strong buying pressure and rising volumes.
There is currently still a divergence of volume (down) and prices (up) (see last update), but we know that these conditions can persist for a long time, and prices could rise much more than it seems rational.
If, instead, prices break 0.173, we may still enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Wednesday, Nov 3rd .


Of note: I am adding a special update on Gold spot ($) today: After the 1387.6 $ high, prices turned down. Unless this high is exceeded, prices should correct deeper. First targets are 1150 and 1050, which at least will likely spark near term bounces.
Let me know via donating if you like this extension of service.

Gold is about to turn down for at least 10% if not 30% in nominal dollars, so one can wait to buy gold...

Thanks. I just started my membership at ForexFactory.com
It will take some time until I can start my own thread. I first need to prove that I am serious...

I would very much appreciate your help on the question:

What is the most efficient and fastest way to buy Liberty Reserve USD?

I read some comments in different threads but can't figure out what the conclusion is.

thanks

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast is well on track. After the forecasted brake out from the triangle, prices reached quickly the ideal interim target of 0.17 $. Prices then did indeed consolidate between 0.17 and 0.12 $ for a 3 days before breaking out to just under 0.20 $.
Since then, prices consolidate on a high level between 0.191 $ and 0.173 $ (sideways range).

Analysis Oct 29 (charts attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support  is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, we are still fundamentally in a rally.

2. Short term update
After the breakout to just under 0.20, the 0.173 level is now short term support. As long as prices do not significantly break 0.173, the immediate uptrend is intact.
However, due to the negative divergence of volume (down) and prices (up), I am adding an element of caution now. If prices break 0.173, we may enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Monday, Nov 1st.

the ones complaining about bubbles, hot air, etc are always those who missed the train
the ones complaining about low prices are the ones already invested
this is the typical psychology

(Conquer the crash with) Bitcoin: The highest level of financial security to preserve your wealth.

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast is well on track. After the forecast brake out from the triangle, prices reached quickly the ideal interim target of 0.17 $. Also, prices did indeed consolidate between 0.17 and 0.12 $ for a while. However, consolidation was short and did not go as deep as expected, showing once more that we are in a very robust rally, with surprises happening on the upside.
Today I am publishing a chart from bitcoinmarket.com. Not because I think it drives a different conclusion, but soley to show that both exchanges show overall the same picture: an almost vertical rally over the past 3-4 trading days.


Analysis Oct 27 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact.
Based on the recent, big move to the upside, former resistance of 0.09-0.10$ now becomes strong support. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in a longterm uptrend.


2. Short term update
After the breakout that went even beyond 0.17 (to around 0.20), the 0.17 level becomes short term support. As long as prices do not significantly break 0.17, the immediate uptrend is intact.

Now to the most difficult part: How long can the rally go? Well, the current rally is technically so strong (volume is rising again with rising prices), that surprises can again be on the upside. As we are making all time highs almost every day, and as we do not have long-term price history in BTC, there is still a lot of upside, and it is difficult (and dangerous) to try picking the top.
The only resistances in my p.o.v are psychological ones: 0.25 (a “quarter”), 0.50, and the magic PARITY.
At the same time, watch out for closes below 0.10-0.09 which would indicate that the rally is over in the short run, and deeper consolidation to the 0.06 level is possible. As long as this level holds, we are still fundamentally in a rally.

Next update Friday.

Thanks for the hint. Currently, I do not frequent a forex discussion. But I like the idea. Do you have any recommendation which one to enter? I am happy to look into that.

Hi,
would you mind sharing what progress you are making?

thanks

Thanks a lot!

That motivates me even more.

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.


Overall, our forecast from the past updates is well on track. Note: It is rare to see the forecast being fulfilled so perfectly as over the past 3 days (Don't expect this to be the case everytime, analysts like me can also be wrong sometimes). Prices broke out from the triangle, reached and slightly exceeded the interim target of 0.17 $.

Analysis Oct 25 (chart see attached)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact. Hence, as long as prices do not break below 0.06, we are in a longterm uptrend. (no change from the previous updates).


2. Short term update
After the breakout, prices may consolidate now between 0.17 and 0.10/0.11$ for a couple of days before continuing the uptrend.  Only a break of 0.06 would invalidate the longterm rally.

Next update Wednesday (depending on your donations :-)

Agree 100%.

Anything different would jeopardize the trust in the entire system.

MtGox USD must be staying USD (with the expection of transaction fees as indicated above. but I'd even challenge the 5%, it needs to be lower)

Could you explain a bit better what the business idea is? Sorry but I am not the expert in thing-o-matic stuff.

What will it produce?
How should things be sold?
etc

No need to worry.
There are a lot of bids on MtGox.

They are just not visible because of the "poor" design of the website.

Bid is 0.11
Ask 0.119

see http://bitcoinwatch.com/

I can't complain about MtGox.

I was in touch with him last week and he responded to my questions quickly and to my full satisfaction.

Maybe he is out over the weekend.

Still, I think we need to ensure that any BTC exchange is run professionally and with the proper risk management.

It is a pity that ebay does not allow bitcoins.

But this is not surprising because they own paypal, and they will do everything possible to defend it. (look at the last week's earning release from ebay. one key driver for profit growth was paypal...)

I think we need to find another way to make bitcoins used as payment vehicle , i.e.
* making biddingpond big (but this is tough, because first bitcoins needs to be more uniserval before enough people see this as an alternative to other auction companies)
* work with competitors of ebay (they may have an interest to fight against ebay / paypal)
* amazon
* etc.

As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update. Now that this gets regular, I am almost feeling guilty that I went out for dinner and just got back late... (unfortunately they did not take BTC). Maybe BTC donation from you can help :-)


Overall, our forecast from the past updates is on track.

Analysis Oct 22 (chart see attached pdf)
1. Long term outlook
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows. The uptrend is intact. Hence, as long as prices do not break below 0.06, we are in a longterm uptrend. (no change from the previous 2 updates).
Volume trends (see organde dots) are also confirming accumulation and support the uptrend.

2. Short term update
The short term triangle (green converging lines in chart) is continuing to form almost in textbook style (see theory part 1 on page 2). Look how prices turned down at 0.108 today as they touched the downward sloping triangle line.

A breakout above the triangle converging lines would give upside potential towards the equal distance target measured from the Apex at 0.10 + (0.13 - 0.06). This means the next bigger target is 0.17 $ if a breakout of the triangle to the upside occurs. Further, but less difficult resistance will be at the all time high of 0.13.


Based on the development of the triangle formation, I am raising the support level to 0.097 (which also equals past 48 hours low). At least, prices should come down again to the 0.101 area in the next 24-48h

1. 0.097
2. Major long term support remains in the 0.065 to 0.060 area.

Next update Monday.

That is not quite making sense. There is a huge difference btw gold / silver and bitcoins. almost all banks and individuals would accept bitcpoins in the world. that also why those precious metals are so highly priced.
but bitcoins are a tiny niche now and alomost noone know about them and accepts them as payments. unless it gets more widespread and used as payments it will stay like that.

It seems like the trend is down..
Which can also be related that there is a slowing down of new businesses accepting bitcoins.