Here is the spreadsheet.
Did you really just use a 62 billion difficulty prediction within 12 months.... Use a more conservative number. Use 1%, then 2%. etc http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.phpIf you want to make the curves on your own you can change the table at the right. The next difficulty is 24%. Far higher than what my chart shows. That means you are about to lose 24% of everything you would have made in the next year if difficulty remained absolutely flat. What do you think it will be next week? 2%? Each successive 15% is a smaller proportion of the pie than the last. So it should be a good median start. The 15% or 24% increase every difficulty change will not sustain for an entire year. At some point it will start tapering off well before we hit 62 billion. In parts of the world with expensive electricity, ASIC miners and Avalons will start becoming unprofitable to operate at around the 500 million difficulty mark (at current exchange rates). People would have to be really stupid to keep buying when we get close to that point. Which just means you'll lose most of the value at the very beginning. I chose 15% because it is neither too high nor too low. I back tested 15% (@ a frequency of 14 day corrections) to when I got my Avalon and it turned out very close to what I actually made. (it was actually a little bit higher than actual) While I am aware that the first 15% is inaccurate and too low @ a frequency of 7 days per correction, (as we know 24% is the next figure) I figured the median of 15% should compensate for peaks and troughs over time. As more ASIC come online the frequency towards the end should be even shorter than 7 days. Which will make corrections in difficulty all that more severe than what is depicted. |
|
|
|
|
No,
Good [and ethical] business is where you sell a product that you can profit from [AND] profits society in some way.
Be it a 40 ton earthmover or a bucket that moves water like it is supposed to.
-------------------------
Making a profit by selling a product that won't do what the customer originally intends to do with it is at worst a scam. At best, a bad business practice and a bad buy.
|
|
|
|
Here is the spreadsheet.
Did you really just use a 62 billion difficulty prediction within 12 months.... Use a more conservative number. Use 1%, then 2%. etc http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.phpIf you want to make the curves on your own you can change the table at the right. The next difficulty is 24%. Far higher than what my chart shows. That means you are about to lose 24% of everything you would have made in the next year if difficulty remained absolutely flat. What do you think it will be next week? 2%? Each successive 15% is a smaller proportion of the pie than the last. So it should be a good median start. |
|
|
|
I don't. He made a fortune with his Avalon already.
He's pissed because he's not making a fortune anymore. Pissed? Is that it? It wouldn't be because you are trying to make a fortune by selling avalon clones which may not even cost you 1,300USD to produce as a clone manufacturer? 42 clones right? @ 7600 USD = 319,200 dollars...for 42 clones. At todays rate it would be about 3192 BTC. ------------------------- All this sold to your potential "customers" as a profitable upgrades....except it isn't. Do I have a reason to be as upset as you who...rather than lower your prices...end up apparently throwing your toys out of the pram and shut down your venture? Did you even try to negotiate? Reading the OP, it looks like you weren't satisfied with 7600 as it was your absolute baseline price. Instead, you were fishing for an even higher price... what the market will bear (in apparent ignorance). ------------------------- What I would love to hear from you is a straightforward statement that you were absolutely shocked...even surprised...to learn that the unit you were selling @ the price point above were going to be absolutely unprofitable. Surely you didn't know this...until just now.... So far one clone manufacturer (HashTech) has ( extremely recently) changed their pre-order policy for their clones. 1 BTC as a down payment and lowered their 12.99 BTC price per module to 8.99 BTC. Just a little over a 30% reduction. That includes the PDU and a control unit. That means HashTech (as one example) will (if the community likes it) receive customers if the price is viable to miners. While you (Black Arrow) apparently won't be offering clones to the community at a "useful price point". https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228492.msg2483687#msg2483687 |
|
|
|
If Clone Manufacturers and original manufacturers won't change their prices then no one will likely buy. (unless they are supremely retarded)
It's up to the sellers to be reasonable. (or go out of business)
May I ask what is your current hash power? 71GH/s Avalon v1.3 Batch #1 |
|
|
|
No, we don't take any preorders on avalon as we're not selling them anymore.
Well, not at that price point.... I am going to go create a thread where folks can explore the profitability of an ASIC in a more realistic way. If Clone Manufacturers and original manufacturers won't change their prices then no one will likely buy. (unless they are supremely retarded) It's up to the sellers to be reasonable. (or go out of business) |
|
|
|
Thanks to everybody for the feedback on the price. We will build them and mine for ourselves.
2.6Thash should be enough for the moment.
If thats the case, you don't need a pre-order system.... Facts, killed the opportunity...? |
|
|
|
Hello everybody!
We will be manufacturing Avalon clones. These are exact Avalon machines manufactured from ngzhang's manufacturing files.
It looks that we will source the Avalon chips early to mid July and should be able to ship Avalon units 7 days after we have received the ASICs. We would like to make an auction for 40 to 120 Avalon machines (65Gigahashes each)
Please bid: the amount of USD you want to pay for a 65Ghash Avalon delivered within 1 month (20-31 July 2013)
Update: Due to everybody's demand we've removed the bid limit of 99 Bitcoins. However we cannot sell under 7600USD.
Sorry to say, your selling lemons. Exceedingly over priced lemons. Everything I have posted has been in line with your thread. And be assured it will be made available to anyone looking to understand the risks and rewards of their purchase. Obviously, the numbers tell me that your clone is over priced. If I tap into the spreadsheet tomorrows difficulty level....(as I should)....people will never make 99 BTC back in one entire year from a 65Gh/s Avalon clone. There is only two options. Lower your profits and raise ours, or offer a device with alot more Gh/s capacity. (4 or 6 modules for example) at the same exact price point. Otherwise each of your customers will be regretting it by years end. (If not much sooner than that.) |
|
|
|
Not speculation whatsoever. Difficulty is a proven mechanism in BitCoins algorithms. Look at the past and see if Avalon owners agree that this is in the right neighborhood of profitability of the past. Look at the date. I put the date I received mine as the starting point. Up until now the difficulty has adjusted roughly every 2 weeks. In the near future (Probably tommorrow) it is less than a week between adjustments. When the other ASIC companies ship it is absolutely guaranteed to adjust even quicker than once a week. Making the forecast even grimmer.  Ask Avalon owners from Batch 1 if this is close to accurate for them. It is for me. If so, then the other estimates won't be far off. Sorry, I prefer to tell people that they are about to be milked dry. This isn't only an Avalon issue, it is an issue for all ASICs regardless of who makes it. The current prices will ensure customers won't ever see profitability. Your charging "Batch 3" prices when these machines could be made for heck of alot less. You don't even have NRE costs or fab costs to worry about. You are just a clone manufacturer who taking blueprints already made and sending them to someone to put it together at a significant cost savings. It is extremely relevant....it is based on basic math. |
|
|
|
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
Yes, but...even if we have 6 months or so of say 25% increases every two weeks, that's enough to make this and many other ASICs unprofitable. It doesn't have to rise exponentially for years. There are a zillion preorders, chip orders, ASICMINER upgrades, etc. in the pipeline which will likely be produced and put online. That is sufficient for the difficulty increases that make blades, USB eruptors, 250 BTC Avalons, etc. unprofitable. I think we will see 100M by November, and maybe 200M by 1Q2014. And at 200M with ZERO growth you'd need to be able to buy hardware at 0.1btc/GH, ie 3% of the price you'd pay today. No ASIC will achieve such numbers, probably even for the manufacturer. Hence, its very, very unlikely that a 200M would be sustainable and would likely fall off. People seeing no return for mining -> turn off equipment. Anyone know what a GPU miner makes today? I want to plug in the number and see when they no longer make anything substantial. |
|
|
|
http://speedy.sh/R2gXU/ASICs-are-way-overpriced-v1.xlsxAlright, there is version 1. I had added an easy way to change the initial BTC amount as well as the frequency of profit loss and setting the percentage. I post it without warranty. Any psychological harm due to this reality check should be billed to your local psychiatrist and not to me. If you find any strange errors feel free to let me know. (Also feel free to upload it to Google Docs as I don't know the in's or outs of that particular service.)
|
|
|
|
|
df07ed15-e31f-48be-9d0f-da85a3a59c58
To Paypal.
The issue is still unresolved and am now entering Day 4. All info checked and double checked. Everything was entered properly.
|
|
|
|
What people seem to be getting horrifically wrong with their predictions is difficulty simply can't rise forever. Follow the chain now:
Proposed: Difficulty will rise to the point that the only widely available ASIC won't be viable [B3 @100 for example. Note that Avalon homebrews are only ~40% cheaper]
-> So if no unit purchased will ROI, ever, who is buying additional ASICs?
-> If no one is buying ASICs, why is hash rate still rising?
-> If hash rate isn't rising, difficulty isn't going up
-> Difficulty plateaus.
Some of these calculations just don't make sense, reaching difficulties of several million. Yes ASICs are POWER profitable until several billion in some cases, but they're not PURCHASE profitable. Not purchase profitable = no new ASICs = no rising difficulty.
Its a catch 22 that difficulty will rise at an extreme rate for a sustained period of time, making everything unprofitable.
You know what is really scary? I had no idea this would be the result. I strongly suspected ASICs were way overpriced, but I hadn't (at that time) done the actual math. When I did, wow, was I disappointed....(an understatement) I was just changing the code slightly right now to make it easy to use for a newbie (so they can stand up to the ASIC manufacturers and plug in their own numbers then tell them to lower their prices). I just plugged in 24% in the first week and left the other blocks at 15%. What is extremely scary is that the final BTC produced at 1 year plunged from 104 BTC to 93 BTC simply by changing that first week. People are apt to think the spreadsheet is somehow exaggerating the situation, right? But the spreadsheet is pretty damning. We only have to wait 7 days and look at the numbers. My worst fear is that the week after this, the next difficulty jump will be worse than 24%. If that is so, the amount of BTC generated takes a nose dive at the end of the line (day 365). The profits wiped out are staggering. Fook 70Gh/s. You'll need a TerraHash just to keep up with the network difficulty and eroding profits. |
|
|
|
PuertoLibre - Would love a copy of the google doc or excel if you could PM me. I would love to play with it..especially going out a few years.
I love a good debate though sometimes wish it wasn't in my sales thread but I am not hiding anything so it is what it is.
As for the comment on ASICMiner. All I know is I paid 2.1 BTC each for 80 block erupters.. hardly a good value... I don't know much about the blades but for sure they are not plug and play and seem to be more work than they are worth. Also, when you pay its mining to your account immediately and shipped overnight.. not waiting weeks to get the unit like the ASICMiner stuff or a preorder.
I have no idea what the market is going to do but I do know that I am keeping at least a dozen Avalons and will run them into the ground. Keep in mind I am doing a 10 year bet on Bitcoin. So for me I feel very confident in making my 250 Bitcoins back on these units and more likely in the next 12 months and the rest is just profit. I think people are highly over estimating difficulty but in case I am wrong on that I leveraged that with some good pre orders (like the 7 Jupiters I bought which I honestly don't think will hit till January even if they say September since they haven't even taped out yet).
I don't think the hardware will fail on these since even if a board failed you can just throw it into another unit (each unit holds 4 and comes with 3 so you have room for one spare albeit you might need a bigger power supply. There has not been a single reported Avalon board failure to date that I am aware of so I expect these to last years.
I think the simple fact that I am only selling a few of these units speaks for itself. BTW I paid more than 250 BTC for these on average and that was just this last week =). So if I thought it was all bad I wouldn't have bought them in the first place. I almost regret even offering them for sale with the amount of ranting and hate lol its just not worth it. I might just take down the whole offer lol.
My advice is if you are long Bitcoin this is a better investment than holding Bitcoin and I did put my money where my mouth is and continue to do so.
Send me a Google Doc link and I will import the formulas. It's better if everyone gets to play with it. |
|
|
|
This is what an Avalon makes today. This is what it will make over the next year. Assuming you lose 15% of your profits every week. Keep in mind, the next difficulty adjustment is A) Shorter than 1 week and B) is about 24%, not 15%. So this is a rather rosy picture.  --------------------- ASIC companies, you either lower your absurd prices...or your customers will start initiating refunds after they see these charts. Avalon/BFL/ASICMiner/KNC etc. |
|
|
|
Yantis demands 30% per month profit loss. 7.5 percent loss in profits per week. A very rosy picture by a large margin, but Alright: The results:  So...you will still not make back your spent money. |
|
|
|
Lets give Yantis and all other ASIC owners the benefit of the doubt: Rather than losing 15% every 7 days, let make it only 1% every 7 days.  As you might imagine, this is an EXTREMELY rosy picture. It won't ever happen. Like someone posted, the next difficulty correction is shorter than 1 week and is actually 24% and not 15%. So no matter how you shake it, ASIC resales are going to be fairly unprofitable. Even if you do Jedi Mind Tricks. |
|
|
|
Ultimately he and anyone else can request whatever amount they choose. All it takes is one moron to think its worth it. The moron loses out but what does the seller care ? he just sold his almost worthless miner for 25 grand.
I doubt Yantis is a bad person. What I think though, is that he knows he is giving people a bad sale. Though he is looking for a moron to part with his money/BTC. This brings up the question: If each Avalon will now only produce in the neighborhood of 105 BTC. Then what is a fair price for each? 25% of expected income? 50%? |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
