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2721  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: April 25, 2014, 02:57:17 AM
I guess that's what you call an accumulation. These guys are just adding coins..
2722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 25, 2014, 02:55:44 AM
It's very important period this. We are on the gate of breaking this downtrend but some volume is needed. Won't be good if we miss this opportunity.

hard to have big volume when there little ask depth and no one is selling.

price will keep melting up slowly



how about bigger buying volume?  Grin
2723  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 25, 2014, 02:28:05 AM
It's very important period this. We are on the gate of breaking this downtrend but some volume is needed. Won't be good if we miss this opportunity.
2724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 24, 2014, 02:41:33 PM
Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Wanna be smart arse TA-er...
2725  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread) on: April 24, 2014, 01:20:06 AM
What's difference between basic and premium in few more words.

And had I understood good, it's 210 paid at once for 6 months instead paying 35 each month?
2726  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 24, 2014, 01:00:07 AM
What's up guys, are perma bears getting nervous yet?

Is it time to buy, buy, buy?  Grin
2727  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 20, 2014, 05:41:35 AM
3d MACD crossing, we're going up at least 100$ Cheesy
2728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 07:08:44 PM

Of course there are moment when some other exchanges take control for short time but this time, beside his usual biased bullshit Jorge is right in general.

We can deny it as much as we want but Bitcoin is currently China's bitch and largely depends on each fart coming from that part of the world. Their government decisions or even only rumors about them are moving the market as a wheel. It might change at some time surely but right now we are under China's mercy completely and that's awful thing, specially for people who are trading as no skills and indicators can beat a single news coming from China. And their exchanges are in most cases the market leaders.

Well, the details matter here, and jorge's polemics didn't include those: just like, on an average (or not so average) day Bitstamp and Huobi influence each other, so do they on the larger scale.

If your model has a rigid structure where Bitstamp price is purely a function of Huobi price, then you will fail to see the (inevitable, in the long run) decoupling of the other markets from China when (and if) China drops out of the game entirely.

Didn't say that'd be painless, by the way.

Jorge obviously added his Bitcoin ignorance as he always does.
2729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 05:56:57 PM
Just in case you guys aren't watching Reddit:

Second Market Exchange is now LIVE!

https://www.secondmarket.com/bitcoin-trading

25BTC transaction minimum.


Ahead of schedule.

Not really the exchange as we are familiar with. I expected more than that.
2730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 05:54:00 PM
One of the several things that make me skeptical of bitcoin's future is that its community resembles more a religious sect than a bunch of sane, rational nerds.

In order to sustain belief in their initial ideal, bitcoiners have developed a network of dogmas that is becoming increasingly intricate and increasingly disconnected from reality.

A substantial part of that theological edifice is meant to allow denial of the single most important fact about bitcoin:

CHINA SETS THE PRICE

To make the denial of this fact possible, bitcoiners pretend to believe, e.g: that almost all of the Chinese trade volume is fake; that BTC-China is the most important Chinese exchange (and the only honest one); that the November rally was due to some magical property of bitcoin that generates rallies at regular intervals, with exponentially increasing magnitudes; and a number of other bizarre dogmas.

Because of these dogmas, the main bitcoin chart sites still omit most or all the large Chinese exchanges (but they all carry the insignificant BTC-China).  Even when it is obvious that price changes are clearly due to Chinese traders reacting to Chinese news, the deniers blame "stupid sheep" in the Western exchanges for "paying attention to China" -- when in fact the Western exchanges are tied to China by arbitrage, and follow China no matter what their clients think, wish, or do.

I can't understand how people hope to succeed in day trading or long-term investment without taking this basic and all-dominant fact into account.  

On the other hand, it is easy to see why bitcoiners desperately need to deny this fact. Bitcoin entrepreneurs would not find investors and clients if they admitted that the value of their fundamental asset is decided and sustained by a legion of fickle amateur traders in China, who, a year ago, were all speculating on fermented tea or some other kind of tulip.  Libertarians do not want to know that their main "anti-government weapon" was taken over by a country that they see as the epitome of oppressive government -- and was reduced by that government to a harmless hobby, in one day, with a single decree.  And the old-timers, in particular, will never admit that "their" beloved bitcoin is no longer "theirs".



Don't make a complex situation simpler than it is.

Where do you get the idea from that the price is set by China? From your own "Chinese slumber" method? Last time I checked, it was wildly off, during several large swings.

Or is it your impression that China/Huobi "leads" all large movements, which is somehow self-evident? Then the answer is: no, they don't. They lead, and they follow, just as you would expect between exchanges that are linked together by arbitrage.

Here's an example, taken from the April 10 crash. China "led" the first part of the decline, volume picking up at around 2:45 UTC, and price from 2700 to 2400. Bitstamp follows, 4k volume, but 400 holds so far.

Next, Huobi slightly recovers, back to 2500. Volume declining along. And suddenly comes Bitstamp with another 4k dump, and China tags along (on barely any volume), but completely on the heels of stamp wrt price.

2nd observation: the Huobi bottom came in almost 2 hours *after* stamp. That makes zero sense if stamp blindly "follows" China.

The reality of the Bitcoin market is more complex than you describe it, and it's a pretty poor indication of your analytical faculties that you feel the need to oversimplify it to the point where it becomes grotesque.

This reminds me of the often stated "fact" that stamp blindly follows gox. Of course prices on the two exchanges were correlated to an extremely high degree, and often enough, stamp followed gox, but towards the end, the two simply decoupled, without much ado. If your theory can't account for that (and in the polemic way your phrased it, it cannot), then it is worthless, in my opinion.

graphs: 15min views of stamp and huobi on April 10







Of course there are moment when some other exchanges take control for short time but this time, beside his usual biased bullshit Jorge is right in general.

We can deny it as much as we want but Bitcoin is currently China's bitch and largely depends on each fart coming from that part of the world. Their government decisions or even only rumors about them are moving the market as a wheel. It might change at some time surely but right now we are under China's mercy completely and that's awful thing, specially for people who are trading as no skills and indicators can beat a single news coming from China. And their exchanges are in most cases the market leaders.
2731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:50:59 AM
XPM quite disappointed me, I had it for weeks and it was only alt that didn't rally on btc-e today. So I sold half hour ago and exchange it for fiat. Probably mistake as it would be profit at some time for sure but I don't care, want some fiat  Grin

I made 2-3 btc on Digitalcoin today, came in right moment to cover some of losses I made on btc vs usd. DGC was always good to me  Cheesy
2732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:48:37 AM
So how many of you traders just lost money because of this China "news" thing? Come on, i know there must be a bunch of you here. Please tell me so i can laugh in your face.

You really enjoy it , right? =)))))

Not really, he is mad, more than me who actually lost money today. He is always mad, I wouldn't like to be him  Grin
2733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:43:59 AM
We'd probably correct at about these levels anyway at some point. But the fact that any Chinese fart of the news can cause such moves is not doing any favour to Bitcoin and us who'd like to trade it. There's just no safety anymore that you could rely on charts, orderbook, momentum, fundamentals when any moment some shit could come from China and cancel all that.

I mean what's the point of waiting 3d MACD to cross when China could cause a hit to the price any moment.

?? do you really think trading is that easy?

There's no easier way on the Earth to make money than crypto trading in normal circumstances.

there s could be some truth about it. but if you cant take BTC trading because of the FUD, you shouldn t try forex... There s nothing more difficult than forex trading.

But i guess you have to see it by yourself.
There are two reasons I want to leave btc trading and go to forex and stock trading:

1. My money is not safe on unregulated overseas crypto exchanges.


2. When I trade bitcoin I do not feel like I can be 'flat' on the market. There are two positions:

a. BTC. I am betting on the rise of BTC, but if I'm wrong, I lose value in USD and am 'losing money'.
b. USD. In this case I am betting on the fall of BTC, but if I'm wrong, I lose value in potential coins to buy and am 'losing coins' or 'missing the train'. Since bitcoin is in a huge historic uptrend, the implications of losing coins are high. Some bitcoiners even measure their wealth in coins and not dollars. In addition, when I hold USD I am also taking risk and betting on the safety of the funds on an exchange (see a).

So there is no position where I am 'flat on the market' and not making some type of bet and am content on leaving. I am tied to the market 24/7 to make sure I'm in the right binary position. It is a highly stressful and obsessive situation which has wreaked havoc on my life.

 In forex, on the other hand, being in USD is always perfectly fine and you don't obsess about missed opportunity costs in one of the dozen currencies (or hundreds of other assets besides forex) you can trade.

Absolutely that too. It would be amazing if we could see some huge rally soon so I could become rich Cheesy and then just leave some bitcoin position as investment, and trade some small part of my new riches on Forex/stocks from Monday til Friday because I love trading, it's exciting and I always dreamed about doing it.
2734  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:40:52 AM

I entered at 140, never bought back in 2011. wasn't really good with money back then and it wasn't easy to buy coins then.

Those gains were when we were around 650. I doubt I'd collect more than 200 times gains now even if I'd sold all alts I have at highest price and that's impossible with such bad liquidity.


Buying coins in 2011 was indeed hard.

In 2011 there was gox for defining the price, and a wire transfer to Japan would take months (no joke). Building your own GPU mining rig was actually considered the #1 easiest way to get BTC.
I ended up driving to the other side of the country (this was in 2012) to trade face to face with a community member who had the patience of sending euro's to Japan.

The growth in the economic foundations (not talking about $ here) we have seen with cryptocurrencies is just insane. How many new exchanges do we have today? How more professional are they? How many new bitcoin businesses? There is so much time and value invested in the usage of this distributed ledger i have a hard time believing this could be anywhere below the current BTC market cap.

A new economy is being built from the ground up because of new technology, and it's being built extremely quick.

To be honest I wasn't extremely interested back then. I was Internet marketer and have read about Bitcoin on some forums, came here once or twice, registered to ask some stupid question, checked Gox once or twice and that's it.

I did check it few months later though, I remember going on Gox and seeing 3-4$ price and saying meh, this is over  Grin

But when I bought my first coins in March 2013. and when that bunch started to grow and grow with trading I got addicted.
2735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:35:06 AM
We'd probably correct at about these levels anyway at some point. But the fact that any Chinese fart of the news can cause such moves is not doing any favour to Bitcoin and us who'd like to trade it. There's just no safety anymore that you could rely on charts, orderbook, momentum, fundamentals when any moment some shit could come from China and cancel all that.

I mean what's the point of waiting 3d MACD to cross when China could cause a hit to the price any moment.

?? do you really think trading is that easy?

There's no easier way on the Earth to make money than crypto trading in normal circumstances.

there s could be some truth about it. but if you cant take BTC trading because of the FUD, you shouldn t try forex... There s nothing more difficult than forex trading.

But i guess you have to see it by yourself.

We'll see, I'm not doing bad last few days and I tend to learn a lot. It's pretty volatile too though.

I don't care about FUD here on forums and such, that means a little. CHinese FUD controls the market though and I can't trade anymore without being safe that they won't drop bollocks each minute and completely ruin my position.
2736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:27:53 AM
We'd probably correct at about these levels anyway at some point. But the fact that any Chinese fart of the news can cause such moves is not doing any favour to Bitcoin and us who'd like to trade it. There's just no safety anymore that you could rely on charts, orderbook, momentum, fundamentals when any moment some shit could come from China and cancel all that.

I mean what's the point of waiting 3d MACD to cross when China could cause a hit to the price any moment.

?? do you really think trading is that easy?

There's no easier way on the Earth to make money than crypto trading in normal circumstances.
2737  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:22:59 AM
We'd probably correct at about these levels anyway at some point. But the fact that any Chinese fart of the news can cause such moves is not doing any favour to Bitcoin and us who'd like to trade it. There's just no safety anymore that you could rely on charts, orderbook, momentum, fundamentals when any moment some shit could come from China and cancel all that.

I mean what's the point of waiting 3d MACD to cross when China could cause a hit to the price any moment.
2738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:12:40 AM
Come on TERA, come to EToro, trade some forex and stocks, need someone to follow there until I learn the game  Grin

You should read risto's thread

He makes the most sense on these forums by far

Learn it, follow it and you will be making mad stacks

I made up to 80 times of my initial Bitcoins and up to 300 times of my initial dollar investment until it was a normal market.

I am learning TA now though as I want to slowly move to Forex and trade with less stress and without all this China bullshit. Will keep some Bitcoin position of course but no trading anymore before new ATH or so.



If it's true, pretty impressive i admit Grin

That means you entered the game at $170(your average buy-in) based on 500/3
Which seems improbable seeing as you registered on these forums in 2011


I entered at 140, never bought back in 2011. wasn't really good with money back then and it wasn't easy to buy coins then.

Those gains were when we were around 650. I doubt I'd collect more than 200 times gains now even if I'd sold all alts I have at highest price and that's impossible with such bad liquidity.
2739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:11:21 AM
Come on TERA, come to EToro, trade some forex and stocks, need someone to follow there until I learn the game  Grin
etoro's main feature is its social network and it is not actually a very good broker in terms of order execution. I have already just opened up an account with one of the top brokers in the world who will offer me the best quality executions and direct interbank market access.

yep, it's not ideal platform but it's easy to deposit the money with Paypal, I can't bother sending wires.
2740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 16, 2014, 10:07:08 AM
Come on TERA, come to EToro, trade some forex and stocks, need someone to follow there until I learn the game  Grin

You should read risto's thread

He makes the most sense on these forums by far

Learn it, follow it and you will be making mad stacks

I made up to 80 times of my initial Bitcoins and up to 300 times of my initial dollar investment until it was a normal market.

I am learning TA now though as I want to slowly move to Forex and trade with less stress and without all this China bullshit. Will keep some Bitcoin position of course but no trading anymore before new ATH or so.

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