Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cassius]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

It looks overbought.

So, opinions on what merely 'bought' looks like at this point in bitcoin's history?

[1715163697]

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[1715163697]

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[1715163697]

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[roslinpl]

Watching charts from a morning time and waiting for some ++% ...

Till now nothing special to see...

[chessnut]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?

The odds distribution is not the point - it's the use of patterns.  Adoption is a potentially valid argument for an increase,  but the increases in the past are not. I should have found a better analogy.

it makes sense to me that bitcoin is simply facing the test of time. I do believe it will have a binary outcome. if it is successful, it will have a disgustingly large market cap. but this simply cannot happen over night for too many reasons. is it really surprising that small speculators like ourselves can effortlessly ride the waves of an evidently succeeding global and historical phenomena?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cbutters]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Hey there hodler, that's a mighty big percentage you got there.

It looks overbought.

So, opinions on what merely 'bought' looks like at this point in bitcoin's history?

Bank of America says $1300

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/12/05/bank-of-america-analysts-say-bitcoins-value-is-1300/&cd=1&ved=0CCYQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNFkRvkmCRIqxEab-CvsIErC6U_Y6w&sig2=1-EEf6Kzd99dMThYMmwMlw

[rpietila]

I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.

This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?

The odds distribution is not the point - it's the use of patterns.  Adoption is a potentially valid argument for an increase,  but the increases in the past are not. I should have found a better analogy.

The increases in the past are something that has never before happened in the history of mankind. This much is a fact.

What we must now research is: what has caused it? There must be something in play that has not been part in any previous rises in the price of investable instruments.

The answer could be: adoption. If the bitcoin network is valued at linearly to the number of its members, the rise in participants from 10 to 1,000,000 would explain the rise of price by 100,000x. But since the number of bitcoins has risen, the marketcap has actually risen more than 100,000x and thus more than linearly - SlipperySlope says that quadratic is the right function. The truth may be in between.

There may be other answers, but the mainstream thinking of: ponzi, pyramid, bubble, don't survive because there is plenty of evidence from them in the history of mankind, and they do not correspond to what is happening with Bitcoin.

For people who are not research-minded, the mere historical facts could serve as a basis for investment. The main disadvantage is that they are prone to buying high and selling low. Holding takes understanding.

[gentacomp]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.

I'm not even predicting how far it's going to drop - just that it needs to find volume. It could be at 400 and that would be lovely.

My prediction is either above 400 or below 300.  It either ends soon (in the next 30 days) or it gets ugly.

Its just that why people have guts to buy 3000 usd + (and some with 9000+) while its not certain, are should I say 50:50. Because I dont, except im multimillion dollar rich... Is it just I cant see the picture or they dont use calculator. Please make me wanna buy 1TH dragon / 1TH S2 antminer... Really need suggestion I can think before I sleep...

[lemonte]

I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?

The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.

I'm not even predicting how far it's going to drop - just that it needs to find volume. It could be at 400 and that would be lovely.

My prediction is either above 400 or below 300.  It either ends soon (in the next 30 days) or it gets ugly.

Its just that why people have guts to buy 3000 usd + (and some with 9000+) while its not certain, are should I say 50:50. Because I dont, except im multimillion dollar rich... Is it just I cant see the picture or they dont use calculator. Please make me wanna buy 1TH dragon / 1TH S2 antminer... Really need suggestion I can think before I sleep...

Try these guys: http://bit.ly/1oMIUVa They are much better than Antminers IMO.

[rpietila]

Hey, I started planning this price prediction contest because I got 16 predictors in the preliminary round which was only open for 24 hours!

To start it, I'd like to have indication of at least a few participants, so if you plan to join, please send me PM (not binding!) or drop a line in the thread itself.

I have promised BTC2 or $2,000 (whichever is HIGHER at the close of the year) as a prize. Entry cost is BTC0.1.

[lemonte]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

[frienemy]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Anyone predicting a value of 0 is just plain stupid. Can't be the king of bears, because bears at least have a brain and are trying to make money, but this one must be a monad. Not much of a brain...

[dreamspark]

Hey, I started planning this price prediction contest because I got 16 predictors in the preliminary round which was only open for 24 hours!

To start it, I'd like to have indication of at least a few participants, so if you plan to join, please send me PM (not binding!) or drop a line in the thread itself.

I have promised BTC2 or $2,000 (whichever is HIGHER at the close of the year) as a prize. Entry cost is BTC0.1.

Where does the extra money go if more than 40 people enter?

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Hey, I started planning this price prediction contest because I got 16 predictors in the preliminary round which was only open for 24 hours!

To start it, I'd like to have indication of at least a few participants, so if you plan to join, please send me PM (not binding!) or drop a line in the thread itself.

I have promised BTC2 or $2,000 (whichever is HIGHER at the close of the year) as a prize. Entry cost is BTC0.1.

Where does the extra money go if more than 40 people enter?

Here:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[magicmexican]

There is some LTC pumping going on

[adamstgBit]

There is some LTC pumping going on

watch out for the dumping

[seleme]

Wow, this guy is the king of the bears:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/97hCiiAX/

Is it someone from here? He sounds like he really hates Bitcoin.

Wanna be smart arse TA-er...

[JorgeStolfi]

This day in Bitcoin price history:

April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10     (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20  (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00  (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:

The red dots are actual BTC prices in USD on Apr/24 of each year, as per above. 
The first three green dots are the actual percent change from each price to the next, as per above.
The green line is the quadratic A*y^2 + B*y + C that passes through those three points.

According to this quadratic, the percentage price change 2014 -> 2015 (fourth green point) will be 0.34%.
That is, the BTC price on Apr/24 2015 will be 485.00 * 0.0034 = 1.64 USD. 

(Before jumping off the window, check what Mark Twain had to say about extrapolation.  )

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Syke]

Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were

 2011 -> 2012  300%
 2012 -> 2013 3024%
 2013 -> 2015  314%

Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.

What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?

The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-04-24-april-prices-extrap.png

Horrible chart, because you ignored valid data. You can't just ignore previous years.