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2721  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis👀 on: November 18, 2018, 08:14:47 PM
Technical analysis is astrology for traders. It is a pseudo-science that dresses itself up to look like a science, but in fact is not based on anything more than fantasy, superstition, and wishful thinking.

Technical analysis is a textbook demonstration of two logical errors: confirmation bias and survivorship bias.

Confirmation bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
One problem with TA is that nobody actually keeps track of its results. The result is that people remember the times that it worked for them, and they discount or forget the times when it didn't. People want to believe that there is a magic formula so much that they ignore the evidence against it.

Survivorship bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Since TA is based on nonsense, it will randomly get it right sometimes. The odds are 50:50. Some people get lucky using TA and some do not. Basically, the people that get lucky go on believing in TA and promoting it, while everyone else just goes away. That is why you see lots of articles promoting TA, but you never see articles showing some how TA gets it wrong.

If you really believe that TA works, then I strongly suggest that you look at it objectively. Be professional. Take it seriously.
  • Research its failures just as much as you research its successes.
  • It can't all be true. Don't just accept any random bullshit that you read as if it were a fact. Demand evidence.
  • It can't be right or appropriate all the time. At least, learn its shortcomings.
  • Don't be fooled by its popularity. Lot's of people believe that astrology really works, too.

    I apologize to the believers in astrology for equating it to something as absurd as Technical Analysis.
    2722  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-11-16]Why Did Crypto Market Experience a $27 Billion Wipeout? on: November 18, 2018, 07:23:38 PM
    It's called manipulation by large mining farms & big players via centralised exchanges. Nothing more.

    Do you have any kind of evidence to back your claim?
    2723  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Mass (kilogram) vs. other base units - see why "kg" just doesn't make any sense! on: November 18, 2018, 11:05:21 AM
    actually pretty sure in ancient greece where kg was invented, these were the instruments used for the calculations
    1x1x1metres (1 metre cube) can contain 1000 litres of water and weighs 1000 kgs

    You are pretty sure about that? You should check before deciding you are absolutely sure. Wink
    2724  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: A proposed solution for lost Bitcoins... on: November 18, 2018, 05:00:47 AM
    What happens to the coinbase transaction in a block that you are going to delete?

    If there is no BTC yet in the source and target addresses there is some problem deleting all the block?

    I guess what I don't understand yet is how do you validate a transaction who's inputs come from a deleted block? I guess maybe you just assume it is valid because the transaction is so old. That's an interesting concept. Normally, you base validity on the genesis block, but in this case you assume validity based on the current block.

    There is also an issue of determining the longest chain, since every chain will have the same length.
    2725  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Scaling Solution Without Lightning Network... on: November 17, 2018, 09:14:35 AM
    We ask the other Type B node for the other part of data and we check it, ...

    If A nodes must also download B blocks and B nodes must also download A blocks, then you have accomplished nothing by splitting them.
    2726  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: A proposed solution for lost Bitcoins... on: November 17, 2018, 08:28:45 AM
    Regarding the "reclaiming blockchain space" problem, there was a research project some years ago, the "Mini-Blockchain project", which would have allowed Bitcoin to run only with pruned nodes. The proposed solution, however, changes the transaction format into one more similar to Ethereum's (account-based instead of UTXO-based) and doesn't allow complex contracts with Bitcoin Script. It is implemented in some altcoins.

    The "UTXO commitment" idea comes into my mind, also. In this solution, the UTXO set is hashed and commited to every block, allowing nodes to go online without having to validate the rest of the blockchain. In theory, this could allow mini-blockchains, too - but I think the challenge would be how to handle orphans/reorgs, so at least some hundreds or thousands of blocks would have to be kept.

    For other purposes than the blockchain size issue, reclaiming old coins makes no sense for me, like for the other participants in the discussion.

    My idea is different from prune, i try to only delete genesis block always that i can and estabilish a always a new genesis block.
    At same time the chance of could recover address with lost bitcoins and more then 100 years not cashed out.

    To really solve full-node really space problems i think maybe this can be better: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5070680

    What happens to the coinbase transaction in a block that you are going to delete?
    2727  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LOL. BitcoinCashABC has out-of-order transactions on: November 16, 2018, 06:57:49 PM
    It is not necessary to store transactions in order of dependency. I can see how storing the transactions in numerical order by hash would improve performance.
    This is not an answer for my question. How do you verify the validity of such block?

    The order of the transactions does not affect the process for checking validity. In your example, the validator checks transaction 1db6...cd51 and verifies that its input matches output 0 of transaction c660...f617 regardless of where that transaction is -- in the same block or in an earlier block.

    No rules are broken. The only positional requirement is that the input can't reference an output in a future block.
    2728  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Example mixer transaction on: November 16, 2018, 05:29:05 PM
    Hello all,

    For educational purposes I'm looking a few example tumbler transactions. Sadly I'm having a hard time finding any, so I would very much appreciate a pointer in the right direction. Students will use the transaction hash with some block traverses to experience how hard it can be to unravel a mixer.

    Perhaps you are talking about "CoinJoin", which is a process that combines transactions from many people. Here is a good article with links that might have some examples: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/coinjoin-combining-bitcoin-transactions-to-obfuscate-trails-and-increase-privacy-1465235087/

    "Mixing" is something else involving secret off-chain transactions that break the associations implied by on-chain transactions.
    2729  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Web Telegram - dangerous? on: November 16, 2018, 05:17:39 PM
    This might help:

    https://fossbytes.com/block-cryptocurrency-mining-in-browser/
    2730  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LOL. BitcoinCashABC has out-of-order transactions on: November 16, 2018, 05:09:22 PM
    It is not necessary to store transactions in order of dependency. I can see how storing the transactions in numerical order by hash would improve performance.
    2731  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: A proposed solution for lost Bitcoins... on: November 16, 2018, 08:39:22 AM
    "Lost" bitcoins are not a problem so there is no need for a solution. However, the idea of dropping old blocks does have some merit. It would limit the sizes of the UTXO set and the blockchain, and that would reduce the cost of running a node. On the other hand, it's not clear how that could be done.
    2732  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Suspect Fraud from FBI community help on: November 14, 2018, 03:03:48 AM
    The english is poor. It is not from the FBI. Ignore it.
    2733  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will Bitcoin ever exist in currency notes? on: November 12, 2018, 07:56:35 AM
    2734  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin was made by CIA or NSA on: November 11, 2018, 07:58:09 PM
    ...
    But still, we don't have a solution for the ban on the bootstrap nodes.
    ...

    Banning the hard-coded seed nodes can't stop -seednode=<ip> or -connect=<ip> with a friend's IP on the command line
    2735  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Where can I buy base of crypto influencers? on: November 06, 2018, 05:17:29 PM
    https://breakermag.com/we-asked-crypto-news-outlets-if-theyd-take-money-to-cover-a-project-more-than-half-said-yes/
    2736  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Few questions before getting started on: November 06, 2018, 08:56:29 AM
    I'm trying to understand how bitcoin mining works and some things don't make sense, as to my understanding of mining, a bunch of data is hashed and if the resulting hash has more leading zeros than the target difficulty value then you have a valid hash and your block is confirmed. If I only need to make around 2,147,483,647 hashes, then wouldn't a mining pool be able to guess an acceptable answer very quickly?

    First, while the original white paper talks about leading zeroes, it doesn't actually work that way. The actual test requires that the hash's value to be less than a  "target" value.

    Second, I don't know why you would think that 231 hashes would be sufficient. Hashes have 256 bits. Currently, an average of approximately  3x1022 hashes are required to find a block
    2737  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: ZelCore generated wallet on: November 06, 2018, 08:37:05 AM
    That's basically a brain wallet. A brain wallet with slowed down bruteforce. ...

    I think everyone has misunderstood what is being done.

    Quote
    ...This value (SHA256 hash) is the encryption key.
    The encryption key is used to encrypt both contacts.json and wallet.dat files with AES-256-CTR algorithm.

    The name and password are used to encrypt the wallet data. Nothing is said about how the private keys are generated.
    2738  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin mixed up seed calculation. on: November 06, 2018, 08:24:59 AM
    FYI, It doesn't happen often, but is is possible for words to appear multiple times.

    These are valid (albeit poorly generated) 12-word seeds:

    abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon abandon about
    zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo zoo wrong
    2739  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Mass (kilogram) vs. other base units - see why "kg" just doesn't make any sense! on: November 04, 2018, 08:19:59 AM
    I guess a perfect standard might be that a kg is the mass of 1000 moles of hydrogen. I think the problem is that we have no practical way to count atoms.
    2740  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Importance of miners on: November 04, 2018, 07:58:04 AM
    OP's comment is just weird! i don't know why he even started this topic when he is not even familiar with mining. your comment is better, i just wanted to add this.
    i personally don't like calling mining a "puzzle". there is no puzzle. it is the common hash function (SHA256) that you perform multiple times until you satisfy a condition!

    I agree. The OP seems to lack some understanding, or perhaps simply does not speak English well enough.

    As for the "puzzle" term, I think "puzzle" is an accurate term, though it might be misleading and not the best term. It is also frequently described as a "complex mathematical problem", which I think is better though not by much.

    Here is the "puzzle" (slightly simplified):

    Quote
    Given a target value, T, and a block of transactions, B, find a valid block header, H, such that

    SHA-256(SHA-256(H) < T

    Even though there is no known method of "solving" the puzzle other than brute-force guessing, it can still be considered to be a puzzle.
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