How do you figure this could be applied retroactively? This doesnt give you a timeline.

The silicon cost is calculated based on the price per wafer and number of candidates per wafer.  Its not like TSMC or GF have pricelists on their website, but there is plenty of industry analysis literature out there that gives an idea. Im using $4000 per processed 300mm 28nm wafer, which is last years average price. I dont have a public source for you for that, but this may show the ballpark is at least correct:
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20110912192619_TSMC_Reportedly_Hikes_Pricing_on_28nm_Wafers_Due_to_Increased_Demand.html
Note the articel is from 2011.

Prices may have come down further since 2012, and I strongly suspect bitcon asics use less layers than the average (making them cheaper), but otoh $4000 is a volume price that may be out of reach of bitcoin asic vendors today. Since this is an endgame calculator, that doesnt matter much. To get to the above numbers, bitcoin asics would have to become fairly big volume anyway.

As for the other costs, chip packaging is typically calculated per ball, with $0.003 per ball being a good rule of thumb. That works out to ~$3 per chip. The additional $4 per chip I used for testing and handling is probably way too much.

But you have no problem sending your bitcoins there? Think about it...

I see theseven sees the light.

Heating up quite a bit now.

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Blockchain shows hashrate just a hair under 2PH

Whatever. You try ordering 500 wafers directly at GF, let me know how it works out. FYI  GF has 3-400,000 wafer per month capacity, for less than 100 wafers per month they dont even pick up the phone and you need to go through intermediaries.

1.2M. And FYI, that amounts to a little over 1000 wafers (http://www.silicon-edge.co.uk/j/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=68), or ~$2M which coincidentally is around the amount you would need to be able to order directly at globalfoundries without having to go through intermediaries.  GF has several 100,000 wafer per month capacity, 1000 per year is not exactly a big deal for them.
BFL recently said they could now order directly at GF.  SO yeah, that sounds entirely believable to me, and it also rhymes with claims made by BFL earlier about their % of the installed asic base when you contrast that with their order queue.

Of course you are free to dismiss all those estimates, call me an idiot and actually believe published orders on this forum are more accurate. If so, you would also believe that KnC only sold 158 Jupiters:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249065.0

Not the ~1500 most people assume.

Yeah but most =/= all and that PSU is a few years old. Certainly worth trying.

Not that amazing once you realize all you get is a chip (which costs them <$50) and you still need a module/controller board for which they can charge whatever the heck they want,  if they dont opensource the interfaces. Even less amazing if you consider they will only give it after 3 months, and without saying if its before 24 months. So all they promise is something which by itself is worthless at some unknown point in the future. Yeay. Its like BFL sending out some extra bare asics for their jalapeno's customers next summer; would that make you happy?

And you think  more than a tiny fraction of BFL customers reported their orders to that site? Dont make me laugh. Most people never heard of it. If anything Im shocked so many did report it.

This is what I used for my 3PH estimate:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

Oh and that $300K in refunds changes exactly nothing.

But you can look at it in different ways too, like by valuation of the asic vendors. Asicminer is hardly a major player anymore, but its still valued at $40M. Cointerra value themselves at $20M (pre IPO, Im sure investors would pay much more for it).  Combined they form only a small fraction of the miner market these days, with Bitfury, BFL, KnC and HF likely being the biggest ones right now.

BFL was estimated to have 3PH worth of preorders with their 65nm products. Using the cheapest option, that amounts to $135M
So yeah, IMO the total is likely higher than $127M especially since  I doubt BFL has been a big recipient of preorders lately.

lol. In all likelihood, its only going to speed up over the next ~6 months. The avalanche of 28nm products from countless vendors has barely even started.

That tail end is also very important for the vendors. HF/CT/etc  may still be able to sell current design asics when D is on the order of 10 billion if they can hit low enough prices. Less efficient machines would have no market beyond "free" electricity customers.

Electricity cost for a KnC jupiter is ~$70/month. Over the useful lifetime of the machine, thats probably <10% of the overall cost.  
OTOH, being one month earlier it will yield about ~100% more bitcoins for a given hashrate.

A machine that is 2x more efficient will be able to run for ~ 1 month longer, but that extra month will yield you less than 1 BTC

Careful what you wish for. If hashfast delivers on spec, in time and in volume, the impact on difficulty will make it about as painful as getting BFL'ed. Thats the whole point with these preorder asic miners, either you get screwed because the vendors do deliver, or you get screwed because they dont. The simple reality is that the money already plunged on preorders in all likely hood exceeds total mining revenue for the next 6 months.  The only way to have any hope of breaking even is buying from a company that does deliver, while the rest doesnt.

I have not bought any asic, nor do I intend to, but if I were a KnC customer, I would sure wish for HF's chip to come out with a major unfixable flaw in its design.

Thats not the point. The point is that electricity efficiency is a moot point right now because of the sky high purchase cost. If/when HF or CT machines come down a factor 10x in purchase price, then it will become much more relevant; but for anyone buying now (or having already bought) its mostly irrelevant. At the point where KnC (and even BFL) machines cant pay for their electricity, none of the other more efficient machines have any chance of recovering their purchase price in any reasonable amount of time. And if you think Im wrong about that, you should be ordering from bitmine.ch who promise effiency down to 0.35W/GH

have you done the math on what happens when difficulty is so high that KnC users are forced to turn off their machines?
BTW, most of them will not be turned off, but be sold to someone with access to dirt cheap electricity in some US states, Russia or China. Heck, even Kuwait ($0.01 per KWH).

Once electricity cost becomes an issue big enough for KnC users to turn off their miners, you are looking at a difficulty so high, breakeven for everyone else that purchased HF/CT/BFL at current prices will be expressed in decades, if not centuries.  If electricity costs $0.15 /KWH, then around difficulty 16B is where KnC miners would turn off their machines. At that point, a babyjet would earn you $22 per month with the same electricity cost. I hope you are still young.

AFAIK, bitcoind creates 100 addresses in reserve when it creates the wallet. So unless you create more than 100 reception addresses in the client,  you should be ok and the wallets should be in sync.
Dont know if armory does it, I thought it used bitcoind, but if you manually create enough spare addresses to receive coins on before hand, and then copy the wallet, it should be ok.

+1

Dual boot with windows 7 for when I need some windows only shit.