When I came across the below article, I said to myself, "Whoa, Zaa!!!" And, therefore, I wanted to share my "Whoa, Zaa!!!" with you. In essence, I find it interesting to hear Julian Assange describing his interactions with Satoshi Nakomoto in the earliest days of bitcoin and the realization by both of them, that they have to share a goal to keep bitcoin somewhat under wraps - especially while bitcoin was still in its budding stages of development. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wikileaks-avoided-bitcoin-prevent-government-destroying-cryptocurrency-175614267.html |
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Damn, how many times I got to tell you guys?
The only reason price is still down at this level is because wall street is manipulating the market in one last ditch effort to buy cheap coins. Once they've had enough, they will allow natural organic growth to $1,000 and probably much higher.
When my imaginary cyborg monkey says that, it has authority. When a newbie parody account says that, it's a bulltroll. I fixed the above for you - b/c when you add qualifiers/conditioners to the word "monkey" then it appears like santa clause... and monkey does NOT seem to be a santa clause... Second: I would really have a difficult time understanding how BTC prices could rise into the $850 to $1,150 range and to either stagnate in that range or to reverse and drop back down from that price range. Once prices get into that $850 to $1,150 price range, there will be so much and many incentives and momentum and steam to push BTC prices well past 3X of the previous ATH (that is $3,489+ for any of you who may be math challenged). Actually, as many others who are more expert than me have asserted, the longer that this stagnation and downward BTC price manipulation endures, the more likely it becomes that BTC prices will explode into an even higher 5X+ to 8X+ (respectively, that is $5,815+ to $9,304+ for any of you who may be math challenged) territory past the previous ATH. Actually, if there is enough momentum to get BTC prices into the $9k plus territory, there may be even greater incentives for evolving BTC enthusiasts to push BTC prices past $10k, just for shits and giggles and because it has become part of the realm of realistic possibilities that will allow even greater profits to be taken when the cashing out resumes. |
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However; the financial connection to bitcoin from it's current users is, in my opinion, the strongest lock in effect you can have in any new technology... Users who hold a certain amount of bitcoin as a long term investment are very much determined to stay and make the technology a success...
I have seen many bitcoin defectors in the phase of the last 6 weeks or so. The process goes as such: - Realize that the final # of BTC (21M) is about the same as the final number of XMR (18M). - Realize that by buying equal number of XMR, you are actually slightly ahead if it gains vs. BTC - Realize that 1 XMR = 0.004 BTC - Realize that hedge buying costs you essentially nothing except your pride of having never invested in an alt before - Start to follow community - Realize that many good guys are there - Start to participate - Realize that people there are on average actually cooler than just Bitcoin proponents - Let that sink in - Realize that it's possible to increase your financial position in the event that XMR succeeds vs. BTC, by buying more XMR - Buy more XMR - Realize that there is nothing BTC does better than XMR (once certain infrastructure is built to the latter) - Realize things that should not be written in a Bitcoin forum - Buy more XMR The defection is completed when you start to feel that the world would be better without Bitcoin, with only XMR. Then you make the commitment to dump your BTC (that is still 50%-95% of your crypto) once the critical moment comes. When it does, XMR may go up 100x-1000x in a single year, and become so big that even BTC's value will be affected. The defection payoff is currently about 250:1 (the difference in their price). You should understand that you may choose any level of defection, you can even defect with a 2.5:1 payoff by risking only 1% of your BTC, which is no defection at all, rather a hedge as discussed previously. This is starting to look like the similar kind of self-reinforcing mechanism that I posited for Bitcoin in early 2013, and prior to that, silver (which also rose 6x during the time of my all-in investment). if another coin even gets close (same order of mag) to bitcoin in terms of market cap, it seriously erodes the "scarcity" feature/argument of bitcoin, which is one of the most critical arguments for putting any wealth/mindshare/time/effort into bitcoin (and by extension, any crypto). Guys like Schiff and Rickards would be proven right, and no one would be comfortable putting any wealth into any crypto for a long long time. Thus, everyone would lose. Humanity would not see the benefits that decentralized money can bring for many years/decades longer than if bitcoin simply becomes the obvious-to-everyone non-dethronable crypto store of value.
To be clear, I think there's niche value in some alts, and some of the experimentation is valuable. But you guys who think that many coins can live side by side with similar monetizations are missing the key point that if that happened, we'd all be sitting side-by-side at *trivial* market-caps, not big ones.
+1 to Melbustus......... Even though stated in the context of another thread, Melbustus makes very decent and well-articulated points..... In this regard, there is NO real need to defect from BTC or to attempt to defect from BTC because any such defection may cause an undermining of BTC and potentially an undermining of all cryptos - in the sense of undermining confidence and in the sense of creating the impression that all cryptos are pumps and dumps and that we can just continue to wait for the next supposedly "better" crypto to come along.. In that regard, we NEED the strengthening of bitcoin for some time to prevail.. and maybe in 50 or 100 years from now, we can transfer over to something else or consider transferring over to something else or... or maybe it would just be that Bitcoin could be forked.. 50 or 100 years from now... ? In 50 years many of us will be dead or on our last leg(s), and in 100 years, we will all be dead (except for some rare miracle of life prolongation - which still may cause anyone here still alive to be quite crippled by that time), but surely it is a good thing to have a plan that goes at least 50, 100 or more years into the future - even though today's investment decisions will likely be motivated by shorter time frames that will differ from investor to investor.. such as 1 eek or 6 months or 1 year or 3 years or 5 years or 15 years or 30 years... and probably, no matter which time frame motivates your investment considerations, you are going to need to engage in periodic and/or continuous reassessment(s) of the BTC situation in light of related factors. |
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ok i quit this forum, again. for the 100th time.
Such upset, so wow. you cannot quit because you are our leader.  |
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Cmon !  lol  its not funny is not bouncing, is dropping.  It is funny if you SODL... but NOT funny if you HODL..... The way you have been talking, Adam, I though that you had SODL... so you should be happy... except trying to figure out exactly when to BUYDL back in. I frequently find it more stressful to be out of BTC rather than to be in ... I mean that, for the most part, I would rather sleep in BTC.... than in fiat. |
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Big players are also not generally interested in seeing the value of their holdings evaporate on the whim of lots of small fish day traders. A forty thousand bid wall flicked in and out existence in the low 4xx's last week suggesting serious buying power despite what TA may say.
I've investigated this claim recently (after reading about it on r/bitcoinmarkets) with people who have complete logs of all past orders set on Bitstamp and no trace of this was found. Where did you see this? My guess is it's a bug with the displaying website like I sometimes had happen to me on bitcoinity or clarkmoody. Yeah, I've never seen this "40k wall" either. Sounds like nonsense. Blitz: it was widely discussed on bitcoinmarkets..I can't give you absolute proof (never saw it myself). Derp: You not seeing it means nothing. Just like your perpetual bearish opinion.  I surmise that you are referring to the equivalent of 40k BTC, and you are NOT talking about $40k (b/c that would be too easy). A 40k BTC wall at $400 would be about $16million (which does NOT seem outrageously unreasonable given the amount of profits that are potentially at stake). |
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is it possible for bitcoin to trade well below 300 this year? That's a very good question, and probably would even be a decent poll question. My personal sense is that it will NOT go below $300, and I have a real hard time speculating that it could go below $400 for the remainder of the year.... so I would vote NOT to both $300 and to $400 for the remainder of the year (absent some major negative news event or some very convincing FUD) say you heard one day that bitcoin is broken because it now takes an avg of 12mins pre block and we see some convincing FUD from poeple waiting hours on end for a block, as price crashes would you sell? Even though, in good fun, I have been with you shouting out CYLMF!!!!!, which I find all in good fun. I am NOT taking any chances to sell at these low rates b/c I really am NOT convinced that the downtrend is inevitable. There are too many big players that can just come in and reverse this shit on a dime, if they so choose. So, I am NOT sure for how long they are going to consider it in their interest to manipulate the prices downward b/c it could end any day or it could slowly grind downward into the $300s... which seems unlikely, but possible. On the other hand, if I am convinced that prices will be going down, then I would NOT be opposed to selling.. and at this point, I am NOT sure what is going to convince me... oh possibly the surprise closing down of another major exchange with another suspicious disappearance of the coins and fiat held there |
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I have consulting relationships with people who have told me that they were doing it. I consider their statements to be factual because of context.
I call that BS. I work in consulting and only a few even know bitcoin. Maybe it's different in your country. But I doubt it. And no, I'm not from a 3. world state (like the usa). Aminorex and his monkey may get some BTC predictions wrong from time to time, but really he does NOT seem to be bullshitting us about having some decent "sources" and arriving at reasonable and realistic descriptions of background dynamics in the bitcoin scene from what he gathers from those sources. Now his assessment of monero may be another story.... |
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is it possible for bitcoin to trade well below 300 this year? That's a very good question, and probably would even be a decent poll question. My personal sense is that it will NOT go below $300, and I have a real hard time speculating that it could go below $400 for the remainder of the year.... so I would vote NOT to both $300 and to $400 for the remainder of the year (absent some major negative news event or some very convincing FUD) |
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this market can really make you sick
if we go sub 400 i'm leveraging HARD
its the only way - all or nothing
Yeah, but how long will it take, if it does? There has been pretty decent resistance in this upper $400s range, which had caused me to believe that prices would NOT be going below $450 - but it is possible to eek out some more selling of coins, I suppose.. and maybe bring prices to the $430 arena... maybe? But even with the price currently floating in the $467 arena, I am thinking that the prices are going to spring back to the mid $470s.... yea i actually made a chart that suggested we would go 480 then back to 467 and rallying 500+ a few days later and 600 a week or 2 after that which would hopefully take us into the next bubble kinda doubt it though Funny how that works. You can make a lot of charts and a lot of graphs projecting BTC price changes, and then all you get in return for all those efforts is BTC price defiance. |
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this market can really make you sick
if we go sub 400 i'm leveraging HARD
its the only way - all or nothing
Yeah, but how long will it take, if it does? There has been pretty decent resistance in this upper $400s range, which had caused me to believe that prices would NOT be going below $450 - but it is possible to eek out some more selling of coins, I suppose.. and maybe bring prices to the $430 arena... maybe? But even with the price currently floating in the $467 arena, I am thinking that the prices are going to spring back to the mid $470s.... |
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Raystonn thinks Scotland will vote for independence Thursday causing a buying frenzy
I assume buying frenzy for bitcoin. I don't see the link though. Why will an independent Scotland cause a buying frenzy for bitcoin? Apparently Scottland has had some discussion that if they were to become independent to have bitcoin as their national currency.. or some similar talks. The chances of scottland transitioning into independence seems pretty low and the chances of bitcoin becoming scottland's currency seems pretty low, even if they were to transition into independence. Yes, the probability is low. But still, it's nice that there even is this kind of speculation. I agree with you that these kinds of contemplations are very bullish for bitcoin, even though it is NOT too likely for any country or administrative subregion to outright adopt BTC as their national currency any time in the near future.... however, if any country or any administrative subregion did, then that action would probably be good for that country / region and also good for bitcoin... and such an outcome would truly shake things up a bit... I mean cypress would be good or Dominica or Scotland or any on this list of small countries by finances that was listed on wikipedia site: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Cook Islands, Dominica, Fiji, The Gambia, Grenada, Jamaica, Kiribati, Lesotho, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Montenegro, Namibia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Seychelles, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Swaziland, Vanuatu. Here's the wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Countries_Financial_Management_Centre |
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Raystonn thinks Scotland will vote for independence Thursday causing a buying frenzy
I assume buying frenzy for bitcoin. I don't see the link though. Why will an independent Scotland cause a buying frenzy for bitcoin? Apparently Scottland has had some discussion that if they were to become independent to have bitcoin as their national currency.. or some similar talks. The chances of scottland transitioning into independence seems pretty low and the chances of bitcoin becoming scottland's currency seems pretty low, even if they were to transition into independence. |
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Monero have been the highest trading volume pair for a long time over at exchange poloniex, it is very easy to understand why it is so fundamentally good, XMR could very well be the coin that gets used a lot in countries where BTC is forbidden or made illegal, XMR could shine in russia for example if BTC is going to be banned in russia by 2014 and it has attracted a lot of early bitcoiners as well, and by this I mean core developers who have taken a look at other coins with the underlying technology and chosen Monero over a lot of others.
Do you actually think that in such case Russian will ban only BTC?  They will probably ban everything, but MRO ban is harder to enforce. They can ban all crypto. At once. There is an easy way to get rid of crime: to ban it. Even better. Ban it AND make it illegal!!! |
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Personally, I would rather consider the amount in my investment pool and consider the amount that I have in the high risk, the medium risk and the low risk categories. Certainly, I may consider gambling 100% of the high risk allocated amount, and if I am feeling particularly confident about the odds of any particular bet, I might also dedicate some additional percentage of my medium risk funds towards the risky venture... but in the end, all or nothing investment (or gambling) practices remain too extreme for my personal risk tolerances and my own sense of financial security.
So you are basically saying that you are a pussy. Anyone reading this thread with any kind of regularity already knew that. I'm a professional poker player and I can assure you, most good poker players or gamblers would be very close to all-in on such a bet. They would, at the very least, bet the absolute maximum they can "afford" to lose. Yes!!! I can tell from your robust and unequaled reasoning that you have very sophisticated skills, truly professional in their very subtlety and deftness.  Surely, i must have been mistaken regarding any attempt to describe moderation and any attempt at describing any strategy going forth as other than 100% in.... Accordingly, YOU, ole wise one, have allowed me to see the light and to recognize that balls to the walls should have been the preferred methodology in these circumstances. |
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OMG.... I saw 466.66.... devil's numbers!!!!!  If you cannot fight them, join them. Cut your loose!!!! is crypto done??  yes The next 12 hours are CRUCIAL!!!!The next 24 hours will determine the future of cryptocurrency for the next decade. The next 48 hours will determine the future of life on earth EDIT : Confirmed ... 1 hour volume on BFX at 1am was 1111 ... its the singularity The next 96 hours will determine my BTC value in dollars for the next 96 hours. I am getting so nervous that I am stuttering: Cut.... You're LOOOOOOOOOOOSE!!!!!!!!!!! |
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OMG.... I saw 466.66.... devil's numbers!!!!! If you cannot fight them, join them. Cut your loose!!!! is crypto done?? yes The next 12 hours are CRUCIAL!!!! |
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OMG.... I saw 466.66.... devil's numbers!!!!! If you cannot fight them, join them. Cut your loose!!!! |
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OMG.... I saw 466.66.... devil's numbers!!!!! |
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In Casino, the games of chance are also games of -EV. Now imagine that you could play a simple dice with the following payout table, but the play is limited to one round:
4-6: pay back 10:1
2-3: no effect
1: lose your bet.
How much would you bet?
How often can I play?Everything! It is better to split cash (1/3..6) and do as much tries as possible. If many tries are possible a gambler would probably do martingale. In the end that doesn't change much regarding odds, though,... mostly the time it takes to finish. That's why I said: bet it all on first go and be done with it. As long as one has a means of earning income and not much funds, this makes the most sense imo. If you're old and already have enough money, why gamble at all? In other words, whether you gamble all of your financial resources or none should be considered on a continuum, depending on the "gambler's" particular circumstances. I find this all or NONE viewpoint that Molecular seem to be framing to be quite nerve racking for my own personal tastes. In this regard, out of my personal inclinations, I have to consider the various nuances, rather than thinking about it as all or none b/c in my thinking if gamblers are considering these various risks as all or nothing, then sooner or later the all or NONE gamblers are going to end up on the street living out of a cardboard box (even though they may have some years of considerable luck and opulence)... and that kind of yo-yo living is too much stress for me. Personally, I would rather consider the amount in my investment pool and consider the amount that I have in the high risk, the medium risk and the low risk categories. Certainly, I may consider gambling 100% of the high risk allocated amount, and if I am feeling particularly confident about the odds of any particular bet, I might also dedicate some additional percentage of my medium risk funds towards the risky venture... but in the end, all or nothing investment (or gambling) practices remain too extreme for my personal risk tolerances and my own sense of financial security. |
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