they only care about their term in power....(terms)

(because= crony circle jerk)

dude... I thought my inference was obvious from the get go in the initial post I did not think you needed it explained out to be honest... but you did ask 

of course my guru I respectively look towards your greatness for the answers to these woes... also I know a few other people that might need your number... 

Something has got to give... the music has got to stop at somepoint, infinite bond market bull mode and high yields are unsustainable.

I mean that QE stimulus buying of the bonds and propping up the demand is keeping the price of the bonds up and stimulating demand, but is also keeping the yield low.

I mean that they are effectively borrowing from peter to pay paul.

I mean that the current situation is not sustainable in its current state, not in the US,  not in Japan, UK, Canada, not in Eurozone at large but especially Portugal, Italy, France, Spain, Greece, and also as it goes not in China it seems either.

I mean that propping up the markets and the bond markets cannot go on forever.

 However I also mean removing the stimulus will increase the supply of bonds on the open market, and due to less buying at real levels, and increased supply there will be less demand and the prices will fall, which will  lead to the yields on the treasuires having to increase to entice demand, and they can only go so high for so long and be "sustainable" for a government, once you get over 7% you are on rocky ground. Conversley the higher the demand for the bond on the open market, the higher the price of the bond, and the lower the effective yield is.

 I also mean that low interest rate cheap easy money cannot go on for ever, and weaning the system off of this meddling will have consequences.

I mean that the debt is out of control, and "printing" out of it has never worked out that well for any country.

I mean that the underlying base of our monetary system is flawed.

I mean that as is the nature of the beast there are cycles, and we are due a down cycle, and I do not think the piper has yet been paid for the past 20 years worth of recklessness.

I mean that eventually the music always stops, as it always does, and people rush to perceived safety...there is a risk people see US bonds (Jpy Bonds etc) are more risky than in the past (safer than many things still though, for now at least) there is a risk that they are just less attractive to investors.

I mean that investors and nations might already be holding too much US denominated debt...and be having their own problems.

I mean we are not alone on this world and our economies are all interlinked, and that the games being played which are systemic, will have systemic consequences when it goes wrong.

I mean that a nation will eventually if they keep playing this game without addressing the underlying problems, default, when there is not enough money to take from peter to give to paul. (maybe that is the whole idea)

I mean that things go wrong (or maybe even right as the case may prove to be)

I mean that perpetual debt growth in the manner we have seen in the west in the past 20-30 years is insane.

I mean that confidence in the current system is in question.  

I mean we are being played like violins...

I mean that these games invariably lead to consequences for the average joe, no matter how they pan out, be it crash or contraction.

I mean that either the problems need to be addressed, and therefore some has given, or the consequences will have to be paid, which will also mean something has given, or they need to change all of the rules...and the system itself which again means something has given.

I mean there will need to be changes... because the situation cannot carry on in this manner, and there will likely be some pain no matter how it goes down.

I mean there is time and there is timing... but there is also kicking the can down the road, in the face of total uncertainty on how to resolve the issues at hand... they are not in a hurry, and therefore are likely to not do anything that soon.. meanwhile people and other countires grow impatient and have designs of their own. Maybe forced evolution will be the answer.

I mean..  

The universe is racing towards heat death.


 

Generally a good idea to question everything... I tend to take the msm with a pinch of salt in most regards... although reading between the lines is often highly informative.

Anal bleeding? (that is not an offer)

So you think the only two options are immediate total collaspe or infinite bull mode? could there not be something inbetween?

Even if you do eventually collapse from anal bleeding, you are bleeding first.

Not sure I said anything about collapse.

(I prefer to think of it as an anal bleed)

USD has got some room to run yet, but it is going to peak and come down with a bump, the next run down, is of course going to happen eventually.  

Though the combined global can kicking may put this shit storm off for a while.

Draghi to the rescue with almost a trillion dollars - splendid.

Phantom bond buyers to the rescue   - splendid, are we ordering glass of chimay with steak-frites or are we ordering suntorys and steamd buns? or should that be budweisers and burgers? want fries with that? mayo? cheese? full fat unicorn?

Though that being said the eurozone, QE or not, is in the shitter... trouble is brewing, and they are kicking the can slightly up hill... and in that basket too we have Japan, which as QE daddy, have got a revolver in their mouths with two in the chamber, or so it seems... the bank of japan pretty much buys all of jp bonds now, the older generation gone and investors are becoming more and more bond shy in Japan. Then you have got the UK which also is not having a great time either, and then the swiss franc, that might change in their upcoming referendum (I would love to see them vote yes, reckon they will vote no though)

How (long) the USD stands up against those guys and their evolving shit storms,  we shall have to wait and see... and also see how the developing situation plays out with China and their own plate balancing act. If they do actually stop the QE, then I think USD will continue to rise...which will further put a dampner on US exports. Also we shall see what happens when rates start to rise, and people are forced off the easy money teat. I know that something has got to give... the music has got to stop at somepoint, infinite bond market bull mode and high yields are unsustainable. But I am not convinced they are going to stay the course , staring down that barrel can do strange things..and it might be that the push comes from overseas i.e china runs into problems due to a credit crunch and this knocks on and they tighten their belts, though they now are too making their own moves to stimulate the market, in light of declinging property prices and weaker figures in general.... but then if the slow down is not stopped and they do tighten their belts then this could cause problems too (plus the business environment in china is crazy,  more down in a basement, than under the table)

Something has got to give... the music has got to stop at somepoint, infinite bond market bull mode and high yields are unsustainable.

Ever get the impression the major economies are spinning plates? wobble .......             woah.........   wobble.........  woah....   oh shi£$%£$%^....fol

Road ahead looks rocky in so many ways... they are not going to be able to catch one of those plates, sooner or later, and once you miss one.....




The future's uncertain, and the end is always near.

Let it roll, baby, roll.

I was just  communing with Set and Loki, they are very happy- the world is on the brink of the brink of chaos... splendind.

Anubis and the Mayan God Kak U Pacat, He who works in fire. Masters of number and measurement…the technicians think this is bullish.

I am considering a home in the mountains of Nepal, I may learn to survive from sucking flowers and crushing stones, not to be confused with sucking cocks for rocks.

fml.

Businezz as usual.

 

  ha ha glad you liked it Jorge 

It is a part of one of the weirdest contemporary dance shows that the wolrd has ever seen... if you want to see it then here is the link....


http://youtu.be/FbuluDBHpfQ

It is the kind of thing that I would have love to have gone to, when I was younger and taken mushrooms and just lost my marbles laughing at (30% laughing at the show, and 70% laughing at the fact I am laughing whilst surrounded by hundreds of serious patrons trying to get their serious on)

Enjoy...  

(ps I like the two ladies that are like stags fighting, while the weirdo on the skateboard thrusts on by....by like I mean it normally makes me lose my shit and start cracking up)

quoted

someone say moon?

ps yeah that was a wall of text   

maybe next time or maybe next time just a daft gif never can tell.. it is totally wild in here sometimes

Disgust? my what words do you leave for things like beheading and child abuse?

Bit fucking strong old chap if you ask me... you barely know the person...sort it out !? 

Ahh sorry dude... I was looking for a bigger meaning... past my bedtime , I was almost asleep  when I watched it, until all hell broke loose nextdoor, alas I am awake again now...  I am not that familiar with cassetteboy tbh, a friend of mine has shown me some before, but years ago, I seem to remember them being different (mix ups of people talking to sound like raps? am I right there was a gordon ramsey one if I recall?)

Dont get me wrong it was quite amusing ! : )  I just though it was in reference to something I had said and I could not think of what it might be.

thanks for the lulz : )

(edit thanks will will check out the parker tapes)

: )

Thank you for your thoughtful and reasoned posts.

Just some thoughts of mine..

I personally think that the price this year nor next is the most important thing.
You mention hundreds of millions pouring into the ecosystem last year, I am aware of 250 million that has (publically) been invested in 2014 so far, during a period the price has been heading down. This alone will not raise the price, however as the seed money comes to fruition, then the added publicity will bring added social proof and with that may come more acceptance and trust and understanding of Bitcoin. Along with more useful Bitcoin ecosystems, popping up in more and more places around the world (ie new markets) Also you mention the growth from 09-13, I get what you are saying, but I would counter that even now at this point Bitcoin is a tiny tiny market, and there is still a lot of room for growth, without the need for a major war or financial collapse (in fact a financial collapse may not do BTC anygood whatsoever) when you take into account the growing regulatory framework which, like it or hate it (regulation) the fact is we are getting closer to some clarity, and markets like clarity, and markets hate uncertainty, so the more uncertainty that is removed from the market (which it will be one way or another and in not too long a time period i.e next 6 months to a year) then that will be one less worry for particpants in the market, at an insituional level, and at a "retail level"  This is by no means insignificant, infact it is highly significant, and is one thing that has not existed in any form for Bitcoin to date, and will , IF the legislation is not too burdensome be a good thing for Bitcoin, not because it needs regulation per se, but because of the elimination of some of the regulatory uncertainty. If the legislation is too burdensome then it could do real damage to Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin, but blockchain technology, and cryptocurrency will no doubt continue to grow and work its way around and continue to evolve, and force legislation to evolve with it too.  However, if the legislation is not to much (which we will find out soon)  and at least some useful tools, end services and economies do continue to be developed and rolled out, both new ones in the coming years, and the fruits of the labour and treasure from the latest rounds of seed money as they come online (and their publicity campaigns) are rolled out, then this is going to start to bring Bitcoin more into the public consciousness, and give it more social proof, and give it a chance at reaching ubiquity. These things are not certainties by any means, however, it is down to ones personal point of view on how much more or less likely these things are to happen now, then they were in 2009-2013, in my view Bitcoin has a MUCH stonger chance of reaching "legality" and a clear legal standing for investors to know what they are dealing with, and if the next year goes off without any major hitch, and by that I mean regulatory hitch then I see this in terms of price , as the most bullish thing that has happend to Bitcoin in its history. (dont worry crypto crowd, there are other cryptos to acheive other goals) This will give BTC the chance over the next few years to grow and become even stronger. This could lead to a positive feedback loop, whereby more clarity, more certainty less fear, more interest, more investment, more buyers, more services, network grows, and gains higher marketcap, network become stronger  the stonger it becomes, the more trusted it is , the more trust the more it grows, and the stonger it gets, the bigger its marketcap has the chance to grow to...   In regards to the money needed to flow into Bitcoin, should it succeed, of course the more orders of magnitude it needs to grow, the harder this becomes from a purely mathmatical point of view when viewed in solo, but when viewed in conjunction with real world events, I think that at least another order of magnitude of price growth is not out of the question, in the next year or two, and if it can do that, they who knows how strong and how big the market could become? I do not, and neither do you.  SO BARRING massive protocol failure, barring massive regulatory shitstorm not putting a spanner in the works, then considering BTC current headstart and network, it has a CHANCE to continue to grow the next few years imo. If this IS the case can quite EASILY see another $50 billion become invested into Bitcoin (ie buying BTC) over the next few years, why not? this is not an obscure reference to metcalfe, but an educated guess , call it a bet if you like, that with regulatory certainty, SOME of the fiat that is currently tied up in gold, stocks, commodities, savings, pensions,  speculation, will flow into Bitcoin, bearing in mind that really 50 billion dollars is not a large sum in reality at all in the grand scheme of things over the next few years, we are talking a tiny percentage of these markets shifting over the next few years... plus a chunk of a growing ecosystem. This is IF it all goes well. So if you do the maths, lets call it 14.5 million Bitcoin in circulation in 2015/16 and lets say we get $50 Billion flow in over next two years , what is that $55 billion market cap  which works out at around $3800 a coin, which is a full order of magnitude from where we are today,( and not too far over your higher estimate if I recall) that is if it goes well.. note I am not cheering or deluded and I use the word IF.  If it does , then I do not see it just dying in two years time... so who knows where it will go.  This is all speculation, as is your thoughtful analysis also which I do not disagree with per se, though I freely admit to being a bit more optimistic than you it seems.  I would also not be overly surprised if $100 billion flowed into the market or even more, in the case of a perfect storm, and I do not mean a war, or a collapse, though I do mean to say actually that over the next 5-10 years  if the market cap reaches 500 Billion, a trillion, which again is NOT too out of the realms of possibility should Bitcoin gain traction and stick around for the next half a decade and say gold become a little less in vouge, and it really does become accepted and trusted by the investment community and then the wider population, then when taking into account the devaluing dollar and increasing money supply, and future world events, then $500 billion,  could become a reality then by 2019 with approx 16-17 million BTC in circualtion , we could end up with a price of around $30,000.  Now if you then take into account some of the scenarios you take into account (ie some sort of shitstorm happening) in the next 5 years (which is not that unlikely) then who knows what could happen.  What I am describing is a perfect storm no doubt, but it the possibility for this happening started in 2013/2014 and will continue with any LUCK over the next 6 months to a year, as regulatory clarity comes to light, and the current and next round of seed money come into fruition.  FAR from a certainty, but more "certain" for want of a better word , or rather more likely this year than it was last year, or the year before.  I agree the most important thing to do is to get involved, and not to just sit on the sidelines hoping the honey badger come and makes all ones lazy dreams come true.

TL/DR The next 6 months,  year really is critical to BTC reaching these price levels and havingthe chance of becoming a real force.

No doubt there are a multitude of things that could "throw a spanner in the works" that I will not go into now as I should be asleep and I need to get up in a few hours and my post is a million words long already.  

If Bitcoin gains traction, via the coming clarity in he next year, then it has a shot of becoming a force and staying around for another 5 years, and then MAYBE, just MAYBE another five years after that.

All speculation of course, which is what we are all doing. With speculation, if you are investing, then we need to know we are investing in a high risk venture, (though less risk now imo than 2 years ago) with high risk, comes high rewards if it works out.

Regardless, the cryptocurrency cat is out of the bag, and I do not see it ever going back in again, it is out there now, in the public consciousness and cryptocurrency and blockchain tech has a real shot of levelling the playing field and becoming a world and society changing paradigm shifting force that will I think have positive implicaitons for the ever evolving and growing society, and for the world which is going to change so so much over the next quarter of a century.

Of course, Bitcoin the currency could get shot down in a ball of flames by the powers that be, of that I am not arguing, it could face many things which do not allow it to gain that traction, that it will without a doubt need to make the next order of magnitude of growth (in terms of price and adoption)  and the model could all change no doubt, a unknown unknown could pop up and burst any hope it has. However, in my humble opinion, it has more of a chance this year and next of gaining that exact traction that it needs , than it has had at any point in its life span so far, and I for one, am investing my time, effort, thought, and money on that exact chance, that exact risk..  not my life savings, and I am not 100% crypto lifestyle or 100% involved in cryptocurrency as a way of earning my crust yet... yet, but I am gearing towards that should the next year go well.

 We are all along for the ride, and I do not see it as black and white personally, so very few things in life are black and white... this is in the grey, and has the chance of a wildcard, positive and negative.

My two satoshi , for what they are worth.

Eitherway enjoy the ride- and stay safe (ie invest you time and money in a sensible manner)

Good luck to you, to us all, and if luck does not cut it... then mitigate your risks, and also get your hands dirty.

This is no time for acting serious, this is a time for seriously acting.

(I am a naturally optimistic, but at the same time practical kind of a guy, and also money is not that important to me or my life, only as much as it needs to be)  

(ps I a half asleep ha ha I should be asleep if my spelling and grammar is shyte, or I rambled around the farm then opps sorry my bad)

(PS the above post is me NOT cheering... nor being overly bearish--- in my bullish moments I secretly hope that the wildcard comes into play andwe hit $10,000 be 2016, and the bearish side of me hopes we do not hit $50 by 2016)   

ermm... I am utterly lost?

It is late here right now and I am literally half asleep

(care to explain what exactly I am supposed to get from this?)

With a trillion dollars a year QE what could go wrong?

Bloody Samarians comin over ere and stealin all our jobs