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2741  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin deflation annoyance on: October 26, 2011, 08:39:29 PM
Yes, you can say that the 5,000 IOU adds additional 5,000 bitcoins into the economy, but this IOU should be considered less valuable than actual 5,000 bitcoins because there's counterparty risk attached to it, i.e. the borrower might default in case he fails to earn 5,000 actual bitcoins to repay the loan.
Who said the face value of the loan was 5,000 bitcoins? I said the loan was *worth* 5,000 bitcoins (because a disinterested party paid 5,000 bitcoins for it in an open market). The value of a loan includes the risk.

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Another issue that springs to mind: how could there be interest on loans if the money supply is fixed ...
The money supply is not fixed. Think about dollars for a minute. Bitcoins are like dollars but the Federal reserve can't print any more of them. So what? What percentage of US dollars are in the form of physical currency?
2742  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin deflation annoyance on: October 26, 2011, 08:35:02 PM
I still think you're wrong about this. Imagine Alice, Bob, and Charlie make up the entire economy. Alice wants the widget that Bob is selling for 2 BTC, but has none. So she borrows from Charlie and pays Bob. Bob now has 2 BTC and Charlie as an IOU from Alice for 2 BTC. Would Bob trade his 2 BTC to Charlie for Alice's IOU? Are they of equal value? Only if Bob trusts that Alice will repay 2 BTC.
For the original loan to take place, the IOU would have to be worth 2 BTC. That may mean its face value is substantially more than 2 BTC. That may mean it's insured.

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The IOU is not fungible because its value depends upon the probability that the debtor will repay their debt.
The IOU might have a different risk/reward profile than bitcoins. But the risk/reward profile of currency is very hard to adjust. Meanwhile, those who craft IOUs can carefully tune their risk/reward profiles by choosing the face value, interest rate, and using partial or complete insurance. So it's quite likely that at least some people will prefer the IOU. And if you don't, you just have to sell it to someone who does. If, for example, the IOU's interest rate scales with inflation, it can actually have *less* risk than holding currency.
2743  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Bitcoin deflation annoyance on: October 25, 2011, 08:41:23 PM
Despite the current trend of Bitcoins losing value against the dollar I think long term the greater annoyance is going to be a constant rise in value. As more crypto currency is used its value will increase and since the quantity of coins is limited at 21 million the value of each coin will keep increasing. This will be annoying for two reasons:
The effective quantity of Bitcoins is not limited to 21 million. Loans increase the effective quantity of Bitcoins. Alternative blockchains increase the effective quantity of Bitcoins. It won't be a problem -- unless you imagine a powerful government that prohibits all business practices the increase the effective monetary supply, the effective monetary supply will grow as the economy does.

For example, imagine we're in a bitcoin-based economy. I want to buy a car that costs 5,000 bitcoins, but I don't have 5,000 bitcoins. I borrow 5,000 bitcoins and in exchange give an IOU worth about 5,000 bitcoins. The 5,000 bitcoins I borrowed are still in the economy, being spent by the guy I got the car from. But the IOU is also in the economy, and it effectively adds an additional 5,000 bitcoins because it is interchangeable in the marketplace with 5,000 bitcoins.
2744  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [20 BTC] Multithreaded Keep-alive Implementation in Bitcoind on: October 25, 2011, 08:34:47 PM
Quote from: JoelKatz
awesomeness
Is there one in the pipeline for 0.5? The RPC changes are a little too much for me to handle.
I'll try to find time to work on it in the next few days. It's hard to refuse a request from someone with perfect hair.
2745  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [20 BTC] Multithreaded Keep-alive Implementation in Bitcoind on: October 23, 2011, 11:41:12 PM
Have anyone tested out the 0.4 beta patch successfully?
Any comparison with the 0.32 patch?

I'm thinking of setting up a new environment with poolserverj + 0.4.
Several people have been using it for two weeks or more, and I haven't received any issue reports yet.
2746  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Problems compiling Bitcoin 0.4.0 in Windows 7 x64 (MinGW Environment) on: October 22, 2011, 08:37:46 PM
Well, you can use quick hacks to solve these specific issues. Remove the definition of 'pthread_t' from the header file and remove the test of the return value of 'CreateThread'.
2747  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Problems compiling Bitcoin 0.4.0 in Windows 7 x64 (MinGW Environment) on: October 22, 2011, 06:43:33 PM
I don't believe you can compile the Windows GUI version under MinGW. You should be able to compile the daemon version -- just don't tell it that it's compiling under Windows -- use the standard UNIX makefile. Some tweaks might be needed.
2748  Other / Off-topic / Re: Computers and steps on: October 21, 2011, 08:57:44 PM
I believe using search engines leads to memory loss.  There are studies.
Is this why I keep forgetting what naked women look like?
2749  Other / Off-topic / Re: I am very confused. on: October 21, 2011, 12:09:35 AM
If you take all the 20 something men over the last decade, tally up every penny that got spent on health care then divide to find the mean. It will be well under the cost of insurance.
Probably true, but this is a meaningless number. In the United States, a big part of the value of health insurance is holding down the amount you have to spend on health care through taking advantage of tax incentives, negotiated prices, and so on.

If you hire a consultant to decide what product to buy, how to pay for it, and who to buy it from, you'll pay more than if you bought that same product from that same persona at that same price without hiring the consultant. It does not follow that you wasted money by hiring the consultant. Without the consultant, you may have paid more for an inferior product.

In the United States, health insurance does much more than just pay for your health care.

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It is important to realize that Obamacare mandates health insurance among the young to subsidize the old. Not to protect the young.
Unfortunately, it's worse than that. That's what the purpose of a health insurance mandate would be if it were not broken. But the Obamacare mandate is too broken to even do that.
2750  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is there a difficulty adjustment limit? on: October 20, 2011, 09:32:59 PM
I see.

The reason I asked was because I though this might be exploitable in some way, since creating a new block chain (at an initial difficulty of 1) would go extremely quickly (134.4 minutes per 2016 blocks at 1 GH/s). But since the difficulty is adjusted every number of blocks (and not at a certain time interval instead), this, as far as I can tell, can't be exploited because the miner working on that new block chain would just increase difficulty very quickly.
If he had two weeks to mine at 1 GH/s at difficulty 1 he could create a longer block chain than the current one (150,000 blocks) in about a week. But since the difficulty is adjusted every time the miner has calculated 2016 blocks, the speed at which he creates blocks would decrease by a factor of 4 for every 2016 blocks he found. The faster he would mine, the faster the time to find 2016 blocks would increase.

So never mind Smiley.
He could game the timestamps so his difficulty stays at 1 the whole time and easily produce a longer chain. He'd face several major obstacles. The biggest one is this -- we sometimes say the "longer" hash chain wins because that is true for situations where a difficulty change is not spanned. But for reorganizations that span a difficulty chain, the "stronger" hash chain wins. (That is, the one that we would expect to have taken the most hashes to create.)
2751  Other / Off-topic / Re: I am very confused. on: October 20, 2011, 09:29:41 PM
Though, when I was selling life insurance, our recommendation was to buy declining coverage amount that dropped the layout every year, and invest money into a personal insurance fund. After a few year (15+) the client would have enough save up that they no longer need life insurance, since they are self insured. Maybe that could work with health insurance, too, though due to some costs that may arise, that may not be easy.
The gap could perhaps be covered by health status insurance.
http://reason.com/archives/2009/03/03/the-health-status-insurance-so.

The short version of the way this insurance works is this: You pay a reasonably low premium. The policy pays out only if you are diagnosed with a new, long-term medical condition. The policy pays out the net present value of the difference between your expected medical costs without the condition and your expected medical costs with the condition over the rest of your life. The payout goes into an interest-bearing trust that can only be used to pay your medical bills or medical insurance premiums.

Essentially, this protects you from getting priced out of the market for catastrophic health care insurance and it protects you from getting into a situation where you can't reasonably afford your non-catastrophic health costs.
2752  Other / Off-topic / Re: I am very confused. on: October 20, 2011, 05:56:03 PM
Over their lifetimes, the vast majority of people will pay significantly MORE for medical insurance, than they would have paid for health CARE had they chosen to save their premiums and pay in cash.
That's not true, at least for the health care system in the United States today. It should be true in theory, as the insurance companies have to make a profit, but it's not true in practice for two reasons:

1) Tax policy heavily favors medical insurance. Employers can pay their employees in the form of medical insurance and the employer does not pay payroll tax and the employee does not pay income tax or social security tax on the amounts.

2) Insurance companies have negotiated low rates with health care providers while the rates paid by people paying for their own care are kept artificially high by a variety of factors. Essentially, it is not practical for an individual to negotiate for the cost of his health care because you don't know what care is needed soon enough, while it is worth the cost for insurance companies to negotiate the price of each item.

Both of these factors could easily be fixed if there was the political will to do it. In that case, your argument would be correct. Then it would be rational to only purchase health insurance for catastrophic health care or for long-term health status changes. You still need insurance in case you need dialysis for the rest of your life or a heart valve replacement, but there's no reason your insurance company should get a cut of your $40 checkup. (Much as we do with every other form of insurance such as auto, home, and so on.)
2753  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox: Green address option on: October 19, 2011, 06:12:58 PM
This sounds like a great implementation strategy to me. "Greenifying" a transaction is then basically just a post-processing step, which adds one of the available 0.01 BTC coins as an input and an extra output to send it back to the green address. This sounds modular enough, that a clean patch for this should be possible. I will probably switch Instawallet over to this mechanism at some point.
Just be careful that you only use funds that *you* are certain have sufficient confirmations to fund such transactions. If you use 'fresh' funds to fund a green transaction, and then a block chain re-orgranization invalidates those funds, *you* will be breaking your green address commitment.
2754  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Crazyness Build Time on: October 19, 2011, 01:54:11 AM
Ok, well I have 4 pcmcia connectors so Im going to try it out on them when they arrive.
PCMCIA cannot be adapted to PCI Express. Only a purely generic bus or something that is basically already PCI can be adapted to PCI Express.
2755  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox: Green address option on: October 18, 2011, 10:44:03 PM
they just have to trust it on a scale from 1 to 6, and knock off some required confirmations accordingly Smiley
And if a green address provider ever cheats, the victim will have incontrovertible proof.
2756  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MtGox: Green address option on: October 18, 2011, 09:45:03 PM
Rather than two transactions, if MtGox were willing to keep a small amount like 0.01 BTC on the green address, couldn't each transaction just have 0.01 from a prior green address transaction as an extra input, and have an extra 0.01 BTC back to the green address as an output for use in the next green transaction? You can still authenticate it's MtGox sending it (since it has funds from the green address in its inputs), but there's only one transaction, and I don't think it'd mess up the normal priority system as much.
That's a great idea. So if a transaction includes any funds that come from a green address, the transaction should be considered green. That allows providers to keep only very small amounts of money in the green address and still provides the same level of assurance.

It does require a slight semantic change -- a green address provider must be considered to have breached its promise if a transaction including at least one valid input from a green address that is signed correctly by the green address is ever conflicted or fails to make it into the block chain. This applies even if the other signatures in the transaction are invalid or if another transaction that claims any of the inputs this transaction claims ever surfaces.

That is, if a transaction has a valid signature from a green address, it must always either be valid for inclusion in the block chain or already included in the block chain. Any other outcome constitutes a breach of the provider's promise.
2757  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Crazyness Build Time on: October 18, 2011, 06:37:26 PM
How do you connect a graphics card to a USB port?!
Well, it looks like you can take this 1x to Expresscard item I linked to at the top of my post, and connect it via USB. If thats not the case, you can use a pcmcia interface for sure as that has been confirmed and with the use of CGminer you can OC the cards.
The USB port on the adapter is not usable to connect the graphics card. It only connects the adapter. (Much like the USB ports on many televisions.)
2758  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Any way to get client startup faster? on: October 18, 2011, 06:32:42 PM
I did some benchmarking of client startup.
Did your profiling tool allocated some time to I/O wait? Seems like you've enumerated a CPU-time profile, not a wall-time profile.
It's wall time, but I made sure all the files were hot in the cache. At least on my machine, if no data is hot in the cache, disk I/O is about 12% of startup time.
2759  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Crazyness Build Time on: October 18, 2011, 12:25:03 AM
How do you connect a graphics card to a USB port?!
2760  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am very confused. on: October 18, 2011, 12:22:58 AM
What is confusing is that people are declaring it dead because it can't maintain a constant price after an increase over 1000 times? I really don't understand this. Somebody please tell me how Bitcoin is suffering right now? From what I am seeing it has had great progress. I don't see anything to complain about.
The volatility makes it less useful as a medium of exchange. If you accept 100 bitcoins in exchange for some hardware and the next day those 100 bitcoins are worth 15% less, you may wind up taking a loss on the transaction. This matters because you typically can't pay your employees, pay your utility bills, pay your rent, or pay your suppliers in bitcoins.

Otherwise, the price of a bitcoin measures a whole bunch of things mixed together. One of the things it measures is the collective opinion of the long-term viability of bitcoins as a medium of exchange. But that's mixed in with so many other factors that you really draw too many conclusions.

I think a lot of people just assume that a high price is good and a low price is bad without really thinking too much about it. They confuse the price of a bitcoin with things like the price of a company's stock.
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