Most of the ASIC buying has already been done. Now people are waiting for delivery. Depends on what has been delivered and what will be delivered in the next 1.5-2 weeks. My guess is 250ish, and next one will be 400 mil beginning of November.  We are only halfway through this difficulty interval and already it points towards ~250M. KnC seems to have found a firmware solution for their machines, if they resume production and shipment, the next 6-7 days might add a fair bit on top that. Also, Im quite sure the difficulty change after that, will still happen this month. I dont expect HF to ship anything before then, so I think we will end october around 350M, maybe a bit more if asicminer delivers. End of November, all bets are off. |
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Your estimates until April or May 2014 could very well be accurate, but the exponential growth can't go on forever and will have to level off at some point. I'd say we'll be around 60-70 PH/s in December 2014, that would be around 9 billion difficulty. That's around the point when the best ASICs on the market right now will no longer be able to mine more BTC than they cost in electricity.
What numbers do you use to get that 60-70PH figure? Keep in mind electricity is dirt cheap in some places in the US, Russia and China and also keeping in mind performance projections of current 28nm asics are skewed towards performance per dollar, not so much power efficiency. As illustration, from bitmine.ch specs this: Power usage of 0.35 W/GH in low power, 0.6 W/GH in nominal and 1 W/GH in Turbo mode
https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863IMO we will end up well above 100PH, possibly as much as 3-400PH at todays BTC exchange rate. The point that exponential growth cant continue forever is of course valid, and its very difficult to predict how fast these companies will be able to produce and deploy. If BFL is taken as benchmark, it will take a few decades, but if you read that Hashfast has contracted Ciara ( https://hashfast.com/big-news-hashfast-signs-exclusive-deal-with-ciara-technologies/) and they are rumored to have the ability to crank out >1000 units per day (!), and keeping in mind Hashfast is just one of many, we may get their sooner than you'd think. |
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Will that take some heat off the PSU to cool it down some?
Find out. Many (though mostly older) PSU's need a minimum load on the 5v or they dont regulate properly. This can cause severe issues, like high fluctuations on the 12V. Just connect a cdrom drive, light bulb, hdd or whatever to put a minimum load on the 5V and see if it makes a difference. If it doesnt help, its not going to hurt either. |
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Got my stuff in today. One of my Jupiters was working for about an hour then shut itself down. It refuses to power itself back on. It will briefly attempt to turn on for about 3 seconds and then it shuts down again. I thought maybe it was the PSU so I swapped it with another but that isn't the issue.
PSU's = OCZ ZX 1250
The other two run fine.
what does it look on the inside? Some troubleshooting steps I've taken. Nothing is consistent but I might be on the right track. All the cases are off. Attempt #1 ~ Unplugging the ethernet cable allows it to boot up from a hard shut down, oddly enough. After a few minutes then I plug it back in. It mined for about 15 minutes and then shut itself down again. Attempt #2 ~ To answer your question about looks, the heat sinks inside lean back and are not level like the others. Noticed one is sorta loose. The other 3, while leaning back, are tight to their boards. Unplugged the PCI-E from the loose one. Turned it back on. A red light is on the front instead of green but the other three boards are mining and have been for about 30 minutes. Will update... --------------------------------- Side note...the PSU connected to this particular machine that is having problems is very warm. The other two machines aren't warm like this one. Will test how warm it is in a while if things are still mining with only 3 of the 4 cards without shutting down. Side note #2...One of other machines that have been running all night just fine, one of its case fans are running at a very low RPM and not emitting any cool air. Maybe KnC can send me a replacement? --------------------------------- UPS is throwing these things around rough. Boxes were damaged. No packing peanuts/balls of any kind still. Just the piece of packing foam on each end. Please try attaching a harddrive to the PSU to put some load on the 5V/3.3V rail. |
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Time out. KnC is saying that it is a power supply issue? I disagree. PSUs do not just de-energize for no good reason... Just why does the PSU power down?.. and the Rosewill Lightning 1300 has a very good rating. http://www.jonnyguru.com/modules.php?name=NDReviews&op=Story5&reid=258http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16817182063My PSU is no POS. Rosewill has been known for making some junk in the past, but not this class of PSUs. I can take ANY device I find and plug and unplug it all day long and not expect the device to light up. I would be willing to bet that the latent electrical problem is what causes the PSU to go into a protective shut down to begin with. If the PSU is suspect, why does the miner not fry when it is initially powered? Surge is a surge, but not necesarily a Serge. Come on, KnC. I think you can do better. I have been very forgiving thus far. Could it be due to only having a load on the 12V rail? Havent read the entire thread, but assuming your mining rig didnt go up in flames yet, perhaps you can try connecting a hdd to the PSU to put some load on the 5V. (note: AFAIK, most 3.5" desktop drives use both 12v and 5v, but to be sure, if you have a 2.5" drive or something else that uses 5V, use that). |
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can you upload the PDFs ?
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More disclosures are needed . Trying to value this company, but its impossible with the information we have.
I may have missed some pieces, but right now all I know is that market cap is currently >$800K while it has closer to $300K in its order book.
That doesnt look great, but its meaningless if we dont know how much of the IPO money has been spent, and how many TH will be brought online.
I understand NDA's restrict your ability to full disclosure, but right now its not investing, its throwing a dart.
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CoinCraft 28nm swiss-made ASIC miners available NOW from 500 GH/s to 2 TH/s.
Not a very honest signature, is it? a·vail·a·ble [uh-vey-luh-buhl] adjective 1. suitable or ready for use; of use or service; at hand: I used whatever tools were available. 2. readily obtainable; accessible: available resources. |
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So, hashrate still the same and no updates as usual, correct?
Fabrizio's hash-rate is down to about 5 or so per day, but thats because of silk road closing. |
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I think the interesting point that hasn't been raised yet (as far as I've seen in this epic thread) is how KNC have binned their chips, if at all. BFL have 2 chips per Jalapeno and each can be (and usually seems to be) of a different quality in terms of hash rate and they must manually balance which chips get put on which board to achieve the advertised hashrate. Bigger boards have way more chips and it then becomes a classic partitioning problem.
Very good point, AFAIK, the chips are currently not binned at all. Not even tested for functioning (neither wafer probing or final chip testing) before being soldered on the PCB. Thats a huge mistake IMO, one that was pointed out months ago. They could be testing/binning the completed modules, but Ive not heard a word on that. |
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I've already said I'll eat my words if the f*ck up is a bad as this. I don't think being late is the issue here. It's mostly product design.
But I really don't think it will be this bad. We'll see though.
Arguably, HF already fucked up about as bad as KnC. KnC promised end of September and only a few days later at least a fair number of users received their hardware working better than originally promised. HF's current one week delay (assuming it ends there, which I highly doubt) would make achieving what KnC did, shipping less than a week late, over spec to at least a tangible fraction of their customers, very unlikely. And the real pitfalls for HF are yet to come. Remains to be seen if the problems for the rest of KnC can be solved, we dont know that yet. Its at least feasible a firmware update will fix it for most other customers. Personally, I doubt it, but I doubt just as much that HF's execution will be better. |
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Oh, so I'm the first one around here to be doing that? These are rough parts around here in case you hadn't noticed. I sure did back when I endorsed HF.
Seems people can dish it out but can't take it back.
Cant speak for others, but Im mainly curious how you will react when HF runs in to similar problems and delays. Their schedule is every bit as unbelievable as KnC's was. HF chips havent even made it through the fab yet and already they are running a week behind schedule making their october promise all but impossible. The most tangible thing we've seen from HF so far is renderings and a FPGA simulation, not even running on their own PCB. Ie, about what we've seen from Cointerra which isnt due for another 2-3 months. Time will tell if you turn out to be a hypocrite or not. |
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Id offer my help, but my PHP skills are really not very good. Perhaps you can team up with one of the sites that currently publish similar information, like thegenesisblock, blockchain.info or even futureblock.
Again, that never occurred to me. It does sound like the best way to go about it. Can I make a suggestion? Start a thread called "cool bitcoin shit I know" which I for one would find very helpful. Futureblock is interesting. I think I'd use my skills for evil and bet, although the 20% house fee is a bit off-putting. 20% fee is only if you bet at the tail end of the betting window. If you place your bet in the beginning, its 0. I love the idea of that site, but I just wish the subject of the bet wouldnt be someone else's ambiguous estimate of network hashrate, but something unambiguous like difficulty, number of blocks found, etc. |
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Clearly a scam. But still funny to pick holes in their story. From their FAQ: Do I need a computer to mine with your products?
If you are mining with a single unit, then no computer is required as the unit will operate without any additional hardware. If you wish to use the collective hashing power of more than 1 unit, they must be connected to a external computer via usb. Mining software supports Windows, Mac OSX and Linux.
Try to get your head around that. one miner works as standalone, but two units dont ? LOL. Also kind of curious how it would mine standalone without ethernet. |
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Id offer my help, but my PHP skills are really not very good. Perhaps you can team up with one of the sites that currently publish similar information, like thegenesisblock, blockchain.info or even futureblock.
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Its anybodys guess and there are lots of scenerios and room for speculation. Lets say BTC goes to $1000 or $10000, you may be priced out of the market to buy coins now but that old miner of yours will be churning out valuable cents still.
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I am sure people threatening with SEC/Police shit dont have shares anymore
Anyone still holding shares today is either incredibly gullible or they bought cheap shares knowing full well this is a scam, hoping to profit from the scam nonetheless if the scammers decided to pay back some of their loot. I dont see why those investors' rights would trump the rights of earlier investors who genuinely believed in this company and sold when it became clear what this is. |
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Hello..
Can anyone guide me as to what will happen to the labcoin shares on btct site now that it is being closed.
I have heard back from other operators with regards to the migration but nothing from labcoin team.
Thanks,
They will be relisted elsewhere. Probably here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83794.0 |
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