3) Yes, it is still profitable. My estimate is a breakeven point of about 6 months if put on preorder today.
Hi, Out of curiosity how are you estimating that. I realize that it is impossible to be spot on without knowing how many units have been ordered or the delivery times (or even what Butterfly labs competition are offering). I have been trying to do my own estimate, I was just wondering if you had a better source of information that I could look at. Butterfly Labs says that 20,000 chips are enough to fulfill all current preorders. That means they have less than 150TH/s of preorders (at the time of that statement). They are the largest sellers according to every piece of information I have seen thus far, so I estimate there is currently 200-300TH/s of preorders across all ASIC vendors. Even at 300TH/s, and including the 25BTC reward drop, ASIC devices would still pay for themselves within 6 months. Of course, that's not including any additional orders placed and fulfilled within that 6 month time period, which would inevitably also affect ROI. Still, I believe it is a happy future for investing in ASICs at this moment. I could be wrong. |
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I'm more curious what would happen to debts. Would laws around a new currency also incorporate a conversion of some sort to allow for debts to be converted? Would I still have a mortgage on my home? How would the value of my home be determined, and how would the amount of the new mortgage be determined? What happens if my paycheck in the new currency drops relative to my mortgage payment in the new currency?
Moreover, if the point of issuing a new currency is to eliminate governmental debt, how could the government justify relieving themselves of their own debt while requiring the debts of the common people to be enforced? Especially when common people are partial holders of the debt the government defaults on?
That being the case, would the people simply demand a revocation of their current debts owed to various banking institutions? Would the banks themselves be shut down and go bankrupt in favor of the people?
It could be the start of a very interesting revolution and redistribution of asset-held wealth across the country.
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1) Not yet.
2) You will be able to use it in pools.
3) Yes, it is still profitable. My estimate is a breakeven point of about 6 months if put on preorder today.
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The mag will be fine. Mihai is a good leader.
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I'll give you 0.2 BTC if you don't get any other offers...
Still interested? Sure! Send me a PM with the code and an address you want me to pay. |
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In reference to the OP, I definitely feel like there should be some community awareness of the consumption side of bitcoin mining. Whether it be investing directly in renewable sources for your energy, or indirectly assisting coalitions or whomever in getting states more active in utility-scale renewable farms. Something to think about: Approx 2,460kWh of energy is extracted from 1 TON of Coal. Even the smallest mining operation is likely to utilize many multiples of that amount (a 500W system roughly every 3 months). An off-the-cuff calc of the current network, averaging 65,000 5870s @ 180W a piece is ~12kW system, consuming ~8.5 GigaWattHours (8.5mil kWh) / month, or 3,420TONS of coal / 12,500 Barrels of Oil / 17,000 Barrels of liquified natural gas, every month. ASICs will be more efficient, but the amount to be deployed will still have a significant power draw, and as bitcoin increases in success, will continue to draw more. So, just thought htis was a good location to throw out the good spirit of renewables, in helping offset our personal contribution to the detriment of the air  Now calculate how much energy and resources are consumed in the production of typical fiat. I don't really have any easy access to resources that would provide numbers for such a thing, or I would certainly enjoy doing so. That aside, BTC supporters should be worried about what production of BTC causes and their direct contribution thereof, not the ratio of efficiency between two distinct systems. If I kill 1 person for fun, it's not ok to point at another dude who killed 10 and say "See what he did? So I'm ok." Yeah, but this is different than killing people. Currency is necessary. It is necessary to consume resources in order to produce and maintain currency. If we can utilize a currency that consumes fewer resources than the other existing solutions, how is that a bad thing? Certainly, it is not a bad thing to continue working towards reducing that consumption (though personally, I couldn't care less how much electricity is being consumed), but anything better than what we already have should be celebrated, not demeaned. JMO. |
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In reference to the OP, I definitely feel like there should be some community awareness of the consumption side of bitcoin mining. Whether it be investing directly in renewable sources for your energy, or indirectly assisting coalitions or whomever in getting states more active in utility-scale renewable farms. Something to think about: Approx 2,460kWh of energy is extracted from 1 TON of Coal. Even the smallest mining operation is likely to utilize many multiples of that amount (a 500W system roughly every 3 months). An off-the-cuff calc of the current network, averaging 65,000 5870s @ 180W a piece is ~12kW system, consuming ~8.5 GigaWattHours (8.5mil kWh) / month, or 3,420TONS of coal / 12,500 Barrels of Oil / 17,000 Barrels of liquified natural gas, every month. ASICs will be more efficient, but the amount to be deployed will still have a significant power draw, and as bitcoin increases in success, will continue to draw more. So, just thought htis was a good location to throw out the good spirit of renewables, in helping offset our personal contribution to the detriment of the air Now calculate how much energy and resources are consumed in the production of typical fiat. |
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Apparently, this site is full of trolls and these are not the kind of people that I want to build a financial relationship with. I rescind my request. Its a wonder that Bitcoin hasn't picked up more mainstream attention in the 3 years its been around. Some of you wouldn't know opportunity if you stepped on it. Good luck.
When you ask for $108 of an anonymous, irreversible currency, stating that the risk is on the lender and that, if you lose while playing poker, the lender will not be repaid, it's kind of a tough thing to sell. I know I wouldn't lend to someone like that. Not only could they simply take the money and run without consequence, even if they did play legitimately, my chance of the person winning would have to be at least 67% in order for me to see any return on my investment vs risk. And even though you've been successful on a small scale in the past, it doesn't mean your luck will continue (poker is a zero-sum game, after all, though I do concede that there is a large amount of skill involved). This stake/loan/investment is a gamble dependent on you, and no one knows you. And you ask why no one wants to lend to you? You have not been taken seriously because you have failed to understand Bitcoin and its history. Countless scams have taken place where people make very similar requests as the one you just made, then take the money and run. There is NOTHING you have mentioned that eliminates the possibility that you would do the same. |
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It doesn't matter whether it was impossible to fully determine the risk - what matters is that Patrick is responsible for shouldering the risk because nothing in writing stated otherwise. And because Patrick did not fully disclose all of the information that would have made the extent of the risk "common" knowledge, it cannot fall under the "common mistake" rules that you keep coming back to.
I find it particularly telling that he repeats ceaselessly that 1% a week is "the impossible" but completely ignored the obvious point that the MPBOR is twice that atm. This is much like saying that paying half the LIBOR is "the impossible" in fiat. BS. Was Patrick's business model sound or not, in your view? Why do you think his business collapsed? I mean, heck, payday lenders charge upwards of 900% APR on a one week loan. Which, broken down to a week, equates to what, 2.5% weekly interest rate or so?
They take huge risks, and they know it. And they have the force of law to go after people who don't pay them. Well yeah. That's why they charge a high interest rate. No one is disputing that high interest rates generally correlate with risky investments. What people are disputing is your insistence that a relatively high interest rate made it obvious that the funds Patrick invested in were investing in Pirate. That is simply not true. If I would have looked at a 1% weekly payout investment prior to the whole pirate debacle, I might have suspected that it was invested in Pirate, but it would have not been at all "obvious" as you claim. Perhaps you are simply more insightful than the rest of us. But just because something is obvious to you and a handful of other outspoken forum members does not make it obvious to everyone, nor does it make it "common knowledge" of any sort. |
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How many units on preorder does Tom have?
He had about 900 orders as of about 2 1/2 weeks ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.msg1292414#msg1292414However, I think BFL has a lot more than 600-700 orders. That would mean that only 1 in 20 orders actually got paid. I'm thinking it's 4-5x that amount. About a month ago, they said there were upwards of 100TH/s in pre-orders. So maybe it would be better to compare pre-sold TH/s then. Tom doesn't have minirigs... If 50 of those BFL orders are minirigs, that's 75+TH/s right there. It wouldn't take much to make 600-700 orders into more than 100TH/s, depending on what each of those orders was for. It's really useless speculation anyway. Who cares how many orders there are? What matters is how many TH/s were ordered, and (to a lesser extent), how much revenue those sales brought in to each of the companies. |
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It doesn't matter whether it was impossible to fully determine the risk - what matters is that Patrick is responsible for shouldering the risk because nothing in writing stated otherwise. And because Patrick did not fully disclose all of the information that would have made the extent of the risk "common" knowledge, it cannot fall under the "common mistake" rules that you keep coming back to.
I find it particularly telling that he repeats ceaselessly that 1% a week is "the impossible" but completely ignored the obvious point that the MPBOR is twice that atm. This is much like saying that paying half the LIBOR is "the impossible" in fiat. BS. Agreed. I mean, heck, payday lenders charge upwards of 900% APR on a one week loan. Which, broken down to a week, equates to what, 2.5% weekly interest rate or so? 1% interest per week doesn't make it obvious that it was part of a pirate passthrough scheme. It wasn't obvious then, and it's not obvious now (as proven by MPBOR). |
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I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?)
Oh goodness no. They have a preorder count of maybe 300 here on the forums, but they've noted before that total preorders are about double what we see here. Call it 600-700 orders, with the majority being Jalapenos and Singles. And I know veerrryyy few people able to drop $30k on a dime for a Mini Rig. Out of the many thousands of BTC users, only a handful will be throwing down cash for them (including myself if my Fund raises the capital  ) Then I am deeply confused.... I thought I saw one representative say they had several hundred of each type. (Some post somewhere on BitcoinTalk or on their company forum (don't remember where). I thought they were the biggest? If they only have 600 or 700 (or anywhere near that range) then why isn't Tom (of bASIC) considered the largest vendor? Hopefully someone can straighten me out as I have seemingly lost the plot and the narrative I kept seeing touted around.... How many units on preorder does Tom have? |
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Patrick's methodology wasn't a secret. Outsiders realized that his belief that there was little correlated risk couldn't be true.
Outsiders to Bitcoin in general - such as yourself - make all sorts of basically stupid but otherwise wild claims. The fact that they make them rends them no particular validity. It's clear that you are absolutely determined not to learn anything from this fiasco. I hope others are not so stubborn. Your complaint is that Patrick did not do the impossible and you fail to take any responsibility for failing to realize that this is what you were expecting him to do. It doesn't matter whether it was impossible to fully determine the risk - what matters is that Patrick is responsible for shouldering the risk because nothing in writing stated otherwise. And because Patrick did not fully disclose all of the information that would have made the extent of the risk "common" knowledge, it cannot fall under the "common mistake" rules that you keep coming back to. |
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By the way, the first chip run for BFL is allegedly 20,000 chips.
20,000 ASIC chips can make
20k / 8 = 2,500 Single SC chips.
20k / ? = ?,??? Little SC chips.
20k / 1 = 20,000 Jalapenos.
20k / 200 = 100 Mini-rigs.
Those are the totals if a batch of 20,000 are divided above as if the batch were used exclusively for one type.
Question: How does one go about fulfilling 12,000 order ID's? Lets assume there are less than 6,000 valid orders. (no clue how many are multiple units in each order...so lets assume it makes up to 6,000 assorted units. Some will order several units while others only 1 unit.)
How does one go about fulfilling that many orders with only 20k ASIC chips? Anyone know how many chips will go into each little single SC?
The Little SC will be 4 chips (logically, since each chip produces 7.5GH/s, and they will be 30GH/s units). But why are you asking this question? Josh already stated that the 20k chips was more than enough to fulfill all current preorders (as of a couple of weeks ago)... so the existing orders are some combination of the above units, but not enough to use up 20k chips. I ask, because it means that out of the 12,000 electronic orders...very few that are actually valid. I thought they were well into the 6,000 thousand range. But looking over different combos, I find it hard to believe that there are many valid orders. I expected many mini-rigs to be sold since customer service stated most of their customers were supposedly not front bitcointalk.org or any other forums. (?) Ah, ok. Yes, very few of the orders are valid. I would guess maybe 1,000 orders. Just my personal opinion/hunch. |
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By the way, the first chip run for BFL is allegedly 20,000 chips.
20,000 ASIC chips can make
20k / 8 = 2,500 Single SC chips.
20k / ? = ?,??? Little SC chips.
20k / 1 = 20,000 Jalapenos.
20k / 200 = 100 Mini-rigs.
Those are the totals if a batch of 20,000 are divided above as if the batch were used exclusively for one type.
Question: How does one go about fulfilling 12,000 order ID's? Lets assume there are less than 6,000 valid orders. (no clue how many are multiple units in each order...so lets assume it makes up to 6,000 assorted units. Some will order several units while others only 1 unit.)
How does one go about fulfilling that many orders with only 20k ASIC chips? Anyone know how many chips will go into each little single SC?
The Little SC will be 4 chips (logically, since each chip produces 7.5GH/s, and they will be 30GH/s units). But why are you asking this question? Josh already stated that the 20k chips was more than enough to fulfill all current preorders (as of a couple of weeks ago)... so the existing orders are some combination of the above units, but not enough to use up 20k chips. |
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Well put Deprived.
I am not sure why JoelKatz believes his arguments are logical, much less even slightly tenable.
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that would be the big companys yeah, a normal person cant afford that, and because we have clean energy (mostly) here its friggin expensive.
Fixed that for you. |
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...statistically, your peers with college degrees will do better... Recently went to a college reunion of sorts... Out of 25 or so friends, I was the only one still in the field of my education... and I consider 95% of the college education I got "in my field", to be worthless. This is after less than 10 years. People with a desire to be knowledgeable will do better than those that don't. Those with a desire to be skilled will do better than those that don't. It has nothing to do with a formal education. Many jobs require a degree, even if it is not a degree in the same field of work. For example, all management positions at my local university require at least a 4-year degree. It could be a degree in underwater basketweaving though. Ultimately, the best person for the job will be hired, and it may come down to who has the better or more relevant degree, but my point is, having a degree absolutely does matter in today's job market. All of that said, I do agree that the education itself is largely useless - I think we would be much better served doing apprentice-style schooling. Work on real-world problems instead of stuff out of textbooks, etc. |
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