From the perspective of a larger holder, it was extremely difficult to buy any larger quantity at 0.001.

If you are buying, you do well if you can buy 10% of the daily volume, on average 1% above the vwap = daily average (try it, it is not easy).

The all-time-low vwap is 0.00099, so if you picked that day (out of the 300) with your timing skills, and accumulated 10% of all the volume that day, you would end up with a position of 8,000 XMR at 0.00100.

I agree, that is commendable. 

LOL. Also the wall pic is quite impressive. Lack of sellers is starting to hurt the rise...  

Well I made a short term trading strategy that imo has a good EV and does not presume that you trust in XMR:

- Buy at 230k
- Put a stop loss at 165k, which is below the new, supposed, floor at 180-200k (max loss 28%)
- Sell only if the speculators join in and take it to 600k+, which obviously is too fast for now (gain minimum 200%)
- Otherwise, wait for the price to find a new level
- In 3 weeks, we are either at 200ish, or 300-400ish, in both cases sell

EV calculation:

1 Stop-loss (P=0.3) = -28%
2 Stop-profit (P=0.1) = +200%
3 Stable at 200 (P=0.3) = -13%
4 Stable at 350 (P=0.3) = +52%
=========================
EV = 23% gain in 3 weeks, with a maximum loss of -28%.

It's happening.

This is a beautiful example of the XMR price probability distribution. In all likelihood, it goes slightly down. But if it goes up, as it is doing now, there is no telling really how high it could go. Other coins have shown up to 1000x increases in price in a few weeks. XMR's history shows surges in 2x-10x range.

This is only the 16th day after the Official Announcement for the Price Going Up, though. The rise has been gradual, but still so fast that it is possible that we will peak soon and crash back down. The good news is that there is a host of buyers both in the bid book and in the sidelines that will most likely consider the previous resistance in 180k-200k as a floor level now. (If not, good riddance!)

This realization gives the price the strength to go higher from those of the core community who were caught short of their comfort position, and an unknown number of new investors with their fat checkbooks is seemingly entering in as well. They don't respect our sacred petty price levels but think in terms of fiat and consider anything less than ATH ($5, now: $0.60) cheap. They represent a short term joker that might cause the altcoiner speculative buying frenzy. The speculators I don't believe will join in unless we cross 300-400k, but if they do, they can affect the price a lot, and do it fast.

A helpful fact is to think of the marketcap. It's still only $4 million, which is extremely small.

On the supply side, most of the supply is owned by the core community, and they are mostly not selling, until in 300-400k some might sell a little. Many in the core community were actually short of their position, and will need to consider buying in a "stop-loss" fashion.

It is likely that miners have built up some positions now as the price has been rising. They might be tempted to sell at around 200k and if dumps happen, my guess is that they are from the miners. Whether this miner selling is happily absorbed or not, or if it scares the bid walls away as soon as they came, determines if our next resting area is around 180-200k or above 300k. For historical reasons, in between is not so likely.

The new investors are in general not selling. An old money guy entering into XMR at this stage is not after a quick few bucks.

The speculators of course sell when they believe it's the time. But first they need to buy and my analysis is that XMR had extremely few speculative longs when the uptrend started, and still does not have them, since even the few that entered in the first days of the uptrend, have mostly sold their position for quick gains around 190k a few days ago.

For any longer term, Monero is a strong buy when done in moderation. Others are better in short-term forecasts.

We kindly accept this gracious gift. As for the order of production, do whatever you feel brings the greatest glory to the Monero Kingdom!

ftfy

Darn...

The only big buy in DRK is in between sock accounts...

I will rob the joy from the trolls by announcing:

I WAS WRONG.

Sometimes that happens. There is somewhat of a chance still that this flash-breakout will not hold, but even in this case I would not be betting for much lower than 180k anymore. The uptrend at least is demonstrated for good.

The first hour of trading is showing: absolutely nowhere.

I told you we need a breather, and we are going to have one. What diverges from my plans (wishes  ) is that it seems quite reluctant to go as low as predicted. Last time it came back all the way to 100k but that is not happening anymore due to so many more buyers.

But the present buyers are likely not lifting it above 200k either. They are not that many. In the grand scheme of things, we still have 1-3 months of accumulation below the recent highs, and when it's over, it is over and is not coming back.

Preview of the Rules of the Gold collecting activity


There will be a Coin Registry listing all coins minted. For a coin to be qualified to be added to the Registry, it must have the following:

- Minted by Royal Decree (in the future, goldsmiths can manufacture all kinds of unique items but they don't count unless a Royal approval is first received; it will be given as before, for major Jubilees and upon special inquiries). The Mint will be constructed to the Old Town and all these coins will be minted there in the future.

- Minimum mintage of 7, no maximum. Maximum size of 25 g, currently the technology does not allow for smaller than 3 g but will in the future (minting small coins is more expensive per coin).

- The DB treatment of the coins is different from objects (coins are instances of a Coin (as shares of stock), objects are unique and separate items (as Ancient clothes)).

- In the Most Ancient era, 8 types of coins were minted by HM (1), Town Hall (1), Jacket (3) and binaryFate (3). They are now in /gold items tab.

- Now up to 93 types of coins may be minted if everyone takes heed of this opportunity. The probable number will be about 20-30.

- During the Most Ancient and Ancient era, the King minted "Coin of the Realm" circulating gold coins every year he sold gold. There are 80-90 such years, the earliest being 1400 and latest 1600. Those coins weigh a standard 5 g each and up to 20 were given as part of the gold sold, every year, every player (the rest being "unallocated"). In total, about 5,000 coins were minted. The King kept for himself only the remainders of the mint runs of 20 coins, which has lead to a situation where he has only the 7th largest amount of coins, and several years are totally "cornered" unwittingly by players who happened to be the only one buying gold in that year, and who bought minimum 100 CKG, and have since not sold small amounts of gold causing them to lose some of the coins.

- When the Mint starts operation and technology progresses, "Coins of the Realm" 2, 3, 5 and 10 g will be minted annually upon need (annum = 12 real-days). The characters are encouraged to bring their gold to the Mint to be minted into these beautiful coins at cost.

- Later on in the Online version, you will be given the option to "freeze" certain coins that you want to keep as your collection, so that they will not be used when you sell "gold" (currently most characters are anyway not selling so much that any coins or items need to be touched).

- We will organize a coin bazaar in the IRC soon. The convention is that trades are "P.O." (=premium only), meaning that when the coin changes owner, the T_GOLD is not touched (the buyer gives the same amount of unallocated gold in return, plus the premium expressed in moneretos). Since the premiums in most cases are only in the order of 1 million or even less, it's encouraged to sell packages of coins in different years, or "investor kits" of several coins per year from multiple years, to have a meaningful amount of money to be registered. Or just do gifts and trades (gifting a P.O. gold item can be done without informing the recipient, though for it to be a true gift, you should transfer the amount of gold as well).

- Everyone must take care himself that he has enough gold to accommodate all the gold objects he has. They may be created without warning at any time, causing a loss of the items deemed least valuable by the administrator.

Building companies generate building labor points, similar to quarry points or SCI points.

In Quarry, you had (still have, but Quarry is inactive) the 3 tranches of excavation that you could assign the points yearly to. They would turn to stone.

In SCI, you can save points, they don't expire, and you can buy advances with them. (Later, you will likely have the choice to further some advance, but not save the points for later use.)

In Building, you have teams of builders that generate Labor points towards a building project of your choice, and they must be used daily. This way the construction of most buildings takes time, because you want to have many projects going on simultaneously in order to not waste any points (or perhaps you have an overflow project like Versailles that can buy at the floor price all "excess" labor).

When exactly it will happen like that is still unclear. Version 5 the latest.

The 150th Anniversary of the Monero House

The Monero House was one of the original buildings planned to be built into the new CryptoTown, along with the Noble Palace and the Royal Palace. It was built as the 16th building in the Town to Earls' Street 2, across the street from the Tower of the Royal Palace.

The funds donated by HG The Bishop and HM The King were not sufficient to build more than 1 floor and the second was planned to be constructed "soon". After 150 years the building still stands 1 main floor high, whereas all the rest Earls' St buildings have been raised to their 2nd or 3rd level. The reason why it has not been completed is that the proceeds of the business must be donated 100% to the Monero devfund, and no fundraisers have been organized.

The heyday of the Monero House was in the 1400s. It housed the first hotel in town and the restaurant was also the most popular until the 1500s it had to give way to places such as the Bank and El Bulli. Monero House has lots of culture, and its experienced manager is MGR-5.

Now the time has come to arrange the fundraiser as there is the opportunity to mint coins and Monero House has a good name but unfortunately no gold (which would not already be in objects that have been donated, including the (now) Marquess of Tavastia 50th anniversary of Introduction medal (50 g) from 1500). The plan is as follows:

Monero House has been given a special privilege of minting as many coins as needed. One coin weighs 7 grams (for the 7 core devs of Monero). Everyone may order maximum 50 coins (in /TACCC tab). The premium per coin is 1 g of gold. In other words you pay 8 g to get a Monero House coin weighing 7 g, and the maximum amount you can donate to Monero House this way is about 25 XMR if you buy the whole allotment of 50 coins.

Since Monero House is such a central institution, even the people not normally interested in coin collecting desire to have one of these coins. It will become the starter for coin collecting due to the potentially higher mintage than most coins, which also guarantees its liquidity in the aftermarket.

To enshrine our motto (not in words yet but approx. "through extremely slow action, finally a glorious victory will come"), we declare that no new Monero House coins of any design will be minted in another 150 years (5 real-years).

The design of this coin will be selected from the proposals submitted.

The Monero House will use the proceeds of this crowdfunding to repair the Earthquake damage, and build additional floors to the House, to continue the donations to the devfund.

Yeah, let's see what happens.

I have likely better information on the strength of the current uptrend than the others, since I know what percentage of the new emission (or trade volume) was my client buys. Nobody else should have access to that information.

The market goes up in waves. I judged that other bidders were weak enough not to cross the Rubicon (194k) a few days ago, so the rally felt overextended. If you can do it without me, and it stays above for several days, perhaps I join in. For now, it's time to wait. Technically, it could break the ATL after failing here. <- I don't believe in those tea leaves and will not let it go that low, but Fibonacci is predicting 134-146 as the possible low. In that area we have quite nice support from the last months' trading action.

If we are talking about the House of the Pious in d'Armagnac haw, it is already there:

The final ancient years: 1600

The Ancient Character Collectors' Coin

The 93 Ancient Characters will have an opportunity to mint a gold coin for their glory and commemorating their deeds in the Ancient era. Only one type of coin (with a mintage of 1-500) per character is allowed. The details of the program are in /TACCC tab in the Char DB. All orders must be submitted by 2015-3-15.

In addition to being completely fungible from the economic side (each gram of gold = 1 CKG is indestructible and has the same dividend and same voting right), the gold will also be completely itemized when Items are implemented. This means that all your gold takes some physical form as coins, objects, etc. It is possible to collect the Ancient gold coins such as these (which will be the last Ancient gold coins minted). They can be sold at a premium, traded and gifted. The mintage cost is negligible compared to the potential value added, and there is no downside since gold is gold.

To restrict the number of different coins existing and improve collectibility, the minting rights will (continue to be) based on the Royal commission only. This is the opportunity that has been granted, the first time in 100 years!

Building has ended

The last buildings (save The Prince of OZ North African Palace & Courtyard, which will come to the DB soon) have been constructed. The Town paved and gardened a lot of areas, including some owned by other characters, for public benefit. The King was so moved by the construction of the new church that he commissioned a 300 m long and 30 m wide Esplanade (+ leveling the land) to be constructed from the Barbican to the North Gate of Borough 5 (soon to be named after the Church once its name is locked in). The final building was the new Obelisk in the Trust in Economy Square in the centre of the New City Borough. (One of the first projects in the new era will be to construct a road to B. 2, since all the others currently have a road!)

No more changes to NPCs (/SERV) or businesses

It is needless to make these since nothing is happening until the next version, and no benefit can be had any more. So save your time!

If you buy and sell NPC, you can still conduct the trade and make changes, but as told, optimization is unnecessary, the formulas in the new version will probably change anyway.

The earth has been shaking and water has started to taste ominous

The scientists and wise men believe we will soon be hit with an earthquake, and buildings from 1430-1565 will be hit. Also the old scrolls say that the waters will become unhealthy around this time, forcing us to drink only alcohol. While these developments have not yet happened, be prepared that they may do soon.

Farewell, my loving people.

You have to understand that there needs to be a productive economy (in this case: the game) from whose profits the dividends/interest is paid. The only option is a ponzi, and if you especially want to lose your coins, I am sure that someone can help you.

CK does not require you to "play" the game, but if you think you could get passive income at zero risk, you could as well go back to sleep. Zero risk is dreaming in 100% of the circumstances.

Crypto Kingdom gold (CKG) paid 3,986 on 430,000 market price last week (0.93% per week). In addition it's been rising in value.

If you are interested in getting Moneros back 1:1, then the Long bond (1 year) was about 1.33% per week when last auctioned. The shorter-term bonds have been paying about 2.73%/week.

In addition, even if you treasured the first few days so much and now feel sad, you can also take refuge on the fact that Monero is the only altcoin I have ever invested in, and therefore ALL the others have been and likely will continue to be rpietila-free!