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281  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: why can't bitcoin be based on something that has value? on: June 20, 2022, 10:48:52 PM
i dont understand why bitcoin has to be just base on people perceive value of it. and for someone to just artrarily fix the supply of them at 21 million doesn't make any sense.
Because one component of money is being a store of value, and for this it needs relative scarcity compared to other goods. Money that isn’t scarce just looses more and more value over time, everything around you gets more expensive and your money worth less, a bad situation to be in.

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it should be able to contract and expand the # of bitcoins in existence.
Humans are too bad at predicting the future to be able to handle this correctly. We see it right now, where inflation gets out of hand and all they can do is manipulate statistics, so it looks better than it actually is, instead of actually fighting inflation. The problem is human decision making will mess the supply up, so a fixed one is better, apart from also making it a better store of value.

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but because bitcoin is design very simplistically it is kind of like monopoly money. not backed up by anything.
This is a feature not a bug, it might sound unintuitive at first, but being backed up by an inferior form of money is a disadvantage. It doesn’t bring any benefits, and no one would need have the need to use the currency that needs backing, because they could just use the asset that it’s backed by directly. Why buy a crypto that’s backed by gold, instead of buying gold directly, it just doesn’t make sense. I say this overly simplistic to get the point across, because there’s reasons why gold fails as a medium of exchange, most people use crypto as a store of value at the moment, that’s why i won’t get in deeper now.

Bitcoin is something complete in itself, it doesn’t need other bs that’s inferior to it.

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i'm not saying bitcoin doesn't do that. but bitcoin has weaknesses. you can't deny that. the main weakness being that it is not backed up by something like gold. gold could then be used to measure the value of bitcoin. and gold has real world use. people wear it. it gets used in all kinds of electronics. bitcoin doesn't get used anywhere for any purpose. it's just imaginary.
First of all, this is not a weakness, money isn’t an economic resource, it’s there to facilitate trade, it doesn’t make sense to make products out of money.

For the simple reason of fungibility, another function of money, each unit should be exactly the same as the other. This is not the case with jewellery and gold coins, they’re different so they’re desired differently, which is bad for money. No person that used gold as money, will use it to make a product out of it. Even gold coins have different desirabilities depending on when they were made and by who, this is bad for fungibility. Pure money doesn’t need another use to be desirable, just like no football club wouldnt hire messi, because he isn’t good at basketball.

I’ve seen this mixing between money and economic resource many times now, i think some people have a hard time separating this. But don’t forget the market can separate between the two pretty well and made Bitcoin the most successful asset of the last decade(outperformed gold and everything), doesn’t seem like a weakness to me, this wouldn’t be possible by being tied to gold.

Being backed by something also opens up a whole new array of attack vectors and market manipulations, as a side note.
282  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: CEX Script or source code using API on: June 20, 2022, 09:59:29 PM
Hello,

Can someone guide me to find (buy) a legit source code or while label centralized crypto exchange service using Binance or Houbi API?

If you are looking for software that trades for you, you are making a mistake, Indian or not.

What I'm looking for is to provide a new crypto exchange website
This will be hard without having some serious expertise yourself or big amount of capital to hire competent people. Running an exchange isn’t a one time buy, it takes constant work to keep it secure and up and running all the time, this is serious software that can’t afford many mistakes, so you will need a team to handle this regardless.

Your best bet would probably be networking with people that are interested in this and competent enough to pull this off correctly(rare). Go trough this plan again and ask yourself how you will be able to compete with established exchanges in terms of security, reliability,fees, UX and volume. It’s not impossible, but it needs good planning and smart decisions to pull off.

Even if you find a one time buy, i would advise against it, because you might regret it later when something goes wrong and not being able to fix it yourself. Also you will custody other peoples money so be careful, this is a prime target for hackers or getting sued when something goes wrong and you didn’t secure it well enough.
283  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Universal Scam Test - Let's Apply it to Bitcoin on: June 20, 2022, 11:40:17 AM
You cannot refute a definition by fantasizing that someone would not accept it. That's just presenting how powerless you are in a discussion.
I refuted the definition, because you weren’t articulating yourself clearly, you didn’t even mention the word intrinsic value once till now(intrinsic value ≠ value). And nah i didnt fantasise about anything, this definition is still bad af for more serious use cases, even if you wanna use it for intrinsic value, but i won’t discuss this now, because it doesn’t matter.

If you wanna talk about intrinsic value, then it’s a different discussion. But finally you’re starting to articulate yourself more clearly, we can call this progress.

Bitcoin is not an economic resource
The problem is you’re trying to suggest something with this. Sure there’s forms of money like gold than can be used to produce goods. But for people who used gold as money, this is not the primary function.

Also like i said above, fungibility is important for any kind of money, small differences can already affect its desirability. So maybe it’s better in the first place, to not be able to make different things out of it, because amateurs won’t understand it and then shoot themselves in the foot. This is also be a point that could be made against nfts and tokens on a main layer.

Are we starting to evaluate the capability of footballers, by evaluating how well they can play basketball now too?

and no human being can benefit from it.
K let’s remember the state of the world in the last years, now let’s check out what Bitcoin did:

  • Uniting a group of anti authoritarians worldwide(which is hard, because they’re usually individualists and completely different from each other).
  • Challenging people to get deeper into computer science, economics, game theory and psychology.
  • No need to trust a central authority.
  • Self custody over money.
  • Censorship resistance.
  • Transaction finality.
  • Sane monetary policy that won’t change in our lifetime.
  • Hardest asset to confiscate.
  • Tearing down economic gatekeeping(you can transact worldwide, or borderlessly recover your money, if you can remember 12/24 words(optionally a passphrase on top) or keep them safe).
  • No need for permissions.
  • Best long term perfoming asset in the last decade.
  • Triggering morally bankrupt and emotional people.

The list goes on.

Im sure no human can get a benefit out of this, because making jewelry out of money is more important for the world right now.

Debt behind fiat money is an economic resource because people benefit when that debt is paid, as I have explained in the OP.
There’s an argument to be made, about how debt based money creation affects its durability. Because with each time you’re taking or giving a loan, you’re essentially making everyone else’s purchasing power go lower, on the big scale this is huge.

How durable is it to gain some additional economic capabilities individually in the short term, but then making the entire working population fall into the cantillon effect(more and more extreme concentration of wealth at the top).

So repeated use of Fiat actually affects it’s durability to be used as a store value, no matter how someone will phrase it, which makes it a weak form of money long term.
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

And now to put it simply, stop mixing economic resources and money, because it will do you more harm than good and just create confusion to yourself. In most cases money isn’t supposed to be used as an economic resource(to produce goods or services). It should facilitate trade, but not be an productive resource itself. The purest form of money isn’t to be used for anything else, like i outlined above, using money for different things can be counterproductive.
284  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 19, 2022, 04:48:37 PM
There's no reason to compare bank interests with Bitcoin's performance. Banks offer a stable or floating rate for your investment/deposit every 3/6/12 months. Bitcoin on the other hand, doesn't guarantee you a certain percentage of performance, but the possibility to rise in the future. It can't guarantee you that it'll earn its money. History has shown that the probabilities of recovery are decent, however, you're not earning an X amount per Y days/months. It's an asset similar to how stocks perform.

Don't get me wrong, bank's interest is close to zero and can't outperform the yearly inflation rate.
To me there’s a reason to compare it, because in my opinion markets will take all possible options into account, to save their money. We see huge fluctuations in the short term, and in the short term the best asset varies. But for long term investors this doesn’t matter as much, there’s a reason Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the long term, it doesn’t just happen accidentally for over a decade. And we know there’s no guarantees, but doing nothing will guarantee a loss of all the time we spent working, for nothing in return. Bitcoin is risky, but fiat is more, and the market will just take the risk into account, it won’t hamper demand.

When i first got into investing i considered every possibility there is, before i even really knew about bitcoin. I compared everything from taxes and other factors(also the state of fiat) of each asset class, and my conclusion was Bitcoin is the best investment there is. No one introduced me to it. And other players in the market will act similarly. And then only after this, i learned what Bitcoin is really about.

And you’re right, you're not earning an X amount per Y days/months, but the reality is, at the banks you're actually loosing an X amount per Y days/months. There’s no reason for the majority of the market to bring their money back to the banks, first it’s a secure loss, second people know how unstable banks are at the moment (with no sign of betterment). Just because regular people are still asleep, doesn’t mean the market is.

Bad times are the best test for how strong something is, this is also a chance for Bitcoin to prove itself, for people who were unsure before.

Staking in such cases can provide more guaranteed results in terms of investment, usually surpassing 10-15% APY. And could possibly balance inflation in a way.
If banks can’t even provide you 1%, what makes you think other projects can do this sustainably?
285  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 19, 2022, 11:49:02 AM
Bitcoin has NEVER seen an era of rising interest rates and tight money before.  This time IS DIFFERENT !!!!!  Ignore this fact at your own risk
Higher interest rates favor the savers and disfavor the borrowers. It reduces, first, productivity and, later, consumption. However, I'm not sure there's a strict correlation between those two and bitcoin. Aren't many use bitcoin as savings and/or store of value?
It’s not correlated, because Bitcoin still outperforms any interest rate a bank could offer.

The people that would put their money into the bank for interest(for a loss because it still won’t outperform inflation), will be the people who buy Bitcoin last anyways. So i dont think it influences the demand side that much.

The only effect it would have, is that speculators can’t easily ape into Bitcoin or any other investments with borrowed money. Which would probably favor Bitcoin, because the market would be more hesitant to get into braindead projects or empty hypes. So higher interest rates could actually favor Bitcoin, and for sure won’t hurt it.

And as we saw now, it’s better for Bitcoin if people don’t leverage too much into it. We don’t need actors like celsius bringing down the whole market, because they gamble too much.
286  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Universal Scam Test - Let's Apply it to Bitcoin on: June 19, 2022, 11:26:39 AM
Value of X is how people are able benefit from X without selling the X to new investors.
This definition is wrong tho and wouldn’t be accepted anywhere. You can use it for yourself it’s fine, but in a debate it’s ridiculous. If you’re so sure about it, then go ahead and write an academic paper about it and see it being eaten alive by peer review.

You are correct, but this is so wrong audience. These people don´t want to hear it. This forum is the place where BTC white paper was released. Their Bible.
You’ll see more people here engage in critical thinking and constructive discussion(even with idiots) than in most places. And also the whitepaper wasn’t released here, but nice try.

Again im telling you, if you work as an analyst in a company, or in academia(in places that still do science), people won’t be as nice to y’all as here, if y’all produce bs like this.

Then you’re also mixing religion with a software whitepaper, which:

1. Is ridiculous.

2. Just shows you can’t compete with actual arguments.

3. Did you ever see someone claim it is their bible? I don’t think so, you’re just letting ur personal bias influence your judgment.

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They want you to show how there is still a hope that they get their hard-earned FIAT back.
You mean everyone who held for longer than 4 years is in profit?

And notice how i never mentioned profit till now, because Bitcoin isn’t about this, even tho it’s a nice side effect of sound money in an artificial fiat world.

i will disagree with you because can not say thing like that and if you want to convince us that bitcoin is better than fiat currency you can put them mostly the differences in a tabular form  some that people will know why you said bitcoin is better than fiat currency, what i need is point and i can agree with you, but for now fiat is on it own and bitcoin is for it own the comparison will much and the similarity will be same
Everything i showed there is it’s own thing and coexists with each other. I even included Greshams law which takes this into account, if you’re too lazy to study then i cant help you. Also i compared the individual properties of gold, fiat and bitcoin with each other, a table won’t change what i wrote, but if you’re too lazy to read i cant help you. I didn’t say anything without an explanation behind it.

If you think anything in the comparison is wrong then point out what and we can discuss it. Otherwise it seems like you just don’t want to accept it, because it doesn’t fit your personal bias.

But for me it's simply an intellectual challenge to engage in refuting of their myths and legends.
I didn’t hear you say something intellectual yet and if you tried to refute something you failed hard.
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 02:55:47 PM
For sake of argument, assume you are right (unlikely). What would you even store the value in that would not be undermined by the reset you are expecting? I'd argue there are none (perhaps gold getting closest to BTC).
I also thought about this, in this case the most unconfiscatable asset will probably win. If gold is to be made illegal, it will be even harder and more dangerous to transport it, than it already is now. Also it’s an terrible unit of account, so good luck paying smaller amounts. You would need to store and hide it, till this bs would be over.

Yes, physical gold bought without registration. Still possible where I currently live, if you buy slowly in smaller amounts like 1-2k a day. I dont care about gold price going up. But you can be sure these evils also have a plan for gold as well. Probably making it illegal to own or sell it by law "to protect" humanity from whatever next. Even German mass media started to write that the Euro will die soon and there is no way out.

This is no coincidence and all planned. Who would have expected a crisis the world have never seen before if you lock down the whole world to "protect" people from a cold. This was the most stupid and insane thing the world has ever seen. And 90% took a part in this and supported it. Now we have the results and it not even started yet. Here in Turkey the gas price goes up by 1 Turkish Lira almost every day. 1 liter of gasoline now costs 31 Turkish Lira while the average income is 4200 Turkish Lira and minimum rent for a effed up apartment 1500-2000 TL. 50 liters of gasoline is almost half of the income.
But relax they can’t forbid everything, in case of cbdcs, Bitcoin will be godsend, where you can still transact freely. Also authoritarians forget that they can’t control everything, and that prohibitions just create thriving black markets. Just look at the prohibition in the 1920s or that even prison has its own currency in form of cigarettes and other things. The economics are on our side, because people would just move into shadow economies, and it won’t be time to make money elsewhere(it’s similar to communism). If what you’re expecting becomes true, it won’t be the time for investors anyways, and bitcoin would still be ur best bet.
288  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Universal Scam Test - Let's Apply it to Bitcoin on: June 18, 2022, 01:21:48 PM
In the bitcoin system value is neither stored nor transfered.
Explain this cuz it doesn’t make sense. What value is transferred or stored into gold? I already explained you what properties a store of value must have. You don’t understand how the world works. Gold is not a bank account that stores usd, and neither is bitcoin. They’re things in itself with fluctuating supply and demands from the outside. Their properties influence how much value the market assigns to it.

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What is stored and transfered is the info about how many ponzi units people have or had have.
So value is transferred and stored, your personal emotions towards something you don’t value, don’t determine free market exchange rates. Ik it’s hard to make emotional people accept this.

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Value is brought from the outside and traded for those ponzi units.
Nah, Bitcoin itself is the valuable thing, that people are exchanging other things for (money, services, goods etc.). Supply and demand vary for an asset with low degree of adoption, it’s something expected. The Bitcoins you hold yourself don’t fluctuate, just the price people are willing to pay, at this particular moment in time, aka exchange rate.

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Given that in the ponzi system no value exists, all current holders of unis are doomed if nobody brings in the value.
If there’s no demand for something(no matter if gold, fiat or bitcoin) then the exchange rate will be low in a free market. Let’s see if you’re mentally capable to understand this. Then explain why Bitcoin would reach a state of 0 demand, waiting.

Bitcoin won’t collapse if no new people come in, it can be used as a unit of account already. I could do trades without ever needing an exchange rate. If me and jay for example wanted to set up a trade, we would never need to touch a dollar, if we so choose to. We can determine the trade individually or let the market decide. It is not a ponzi that collapses without new investors. The only thing that happens without new investors is that maybe some individual expectations get crushed, because it won’t rise forever. But it still works as money, regardless of the exchange rate or new investors.

The better question you should ask yourself is, how money comes into existence organically, and once you understand this, it makes your ponzi assumptions look ridiculous.

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Unfortunately, all you blind believes will learn the above facts the hard way.
Prime example of the Dunning–Kruger effect.
289  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Universal Scam Test - Let's Apply it to Bitcoin on: June 18, 2022, 11:57:14 AM
This is a great text, mate! At first I couldn't believe it wasn't plagiarised, so I checked it, and it's 100% unique!



Well, I'll say it agian, imo it's an amazing text. It's simple and yet informative. I can't imagine a better way to explain someone that BTC is not only money, but it is better money than fiat and gold.

Thank you for taking effort to write it.
Hahahahhah thanks man, plagiarism would be boring, but what i did isn’t rocket science. It’s just taking basic economic properties of money and then evaluating them yourself. This is already an established model in economics.

You can check it out anywhere yourself, if you search for the properties of money. What’s more interesting is how money comes into existence and how different forms of money compete with each other, that’s what im currently researching, i might make a thread that goes in deep about how an individual can evaluate all this.
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 11:43:19 AM
Jay, I am writing another reply to you.  This first:

Modification of terms:  I say that there is also at least one other PM, in addition to the one to Wilhelm (which I did not know about).

Accruing evidence of habitual PM-begging.

I believe that it may well be acceptable to describe some contents and context of PMs.. but it is generally not a good practice to either disclose them or offer to expose them.. and I am not sure if the fact that such PMs might break forum rules would be enough because there is already a remedy for that, which is to hit the report button within the PM.

It is generally not a good practice, as a matter of etiquette and common decency.  I am deeply sensitive to the privacy of good-faith correspondents, with whom I am mutually engaged.

That generality does not apply to unsolicited requests for money—i.e., beggar-spam.  Especially not from a random stranger.  (It also does not apply to personal attacks and harassment from trolls, etc.)

Please also remember that I didn’t just suddenly start getting PMs dragged out in public.  I started with what you say: “describe some contents and context of PMs”.  I briefly noted that Dabs had a history of begging for money in PMs.  goldkingcoiner lashed out at me, insulted me, smeared me as a liar—and he demanded evidence.  Well, that last part is reasonable enough!  I am a big believer in going by the evidence.

My word has been challenged.  I called on Dabs to come clean; he has not done so, and at this point, I think it may be too late.  If I seek to establish that anyone who called me a liar is, in fact, lying about me, then any and all extant Dabs begging PMs are the evidence.

And—I know you are aware of this, Jay; but for the n00bs, I should make it clear that posting PMs is not against forum rules.

Re: Publicly posting PMs
There is no restriction against it. PM = Personal Message, not Private Message.
Compare "private interview" to "personal interview" or "private locker" to "personal locker". Something private isn't expected to be made public, but something personal is only owned by or associated with a single person, not necessarily with a strong guarantee of privacy.
I get your point, but remember goldkingcoiner thought, that this guy actually did good things before, it’s an expected first reaction. I wouldn’t take it personally, lets see how he reacts after you provided him the proof he asked for.
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 11:31:00 AM
I have no problem with both the concept of a bet to attempt to resolve a difference of opinion.. and I agree with several of the points that you had made in your earlier post D_W.. but holy shit.. you want to take this to a way further level than even seems plausible..

No one is going to bet you when you are getting so excited about the issue and even seeming to unilaterally impose the betting terms, even though some of those terms are not unreasonable.. but some of them are a bit much (and seemingly emotionally laden, too).. but still format wise.. it seems reasonable to outline some of the terms if the other party might be amenable to entering into such a bet..

Sure, I understand that if you feel that you have a winning bet then you may well want to get the other side to bet a larger amount.. but even according to yourself, you don't even have 0.1BTC.. and for sure, hardly anyone would want to run the risk of losing a whole BTC unless you just happen to find a gambler who might be as deranged as ur lil selfie.

Another thing is that goldkingcoiner said that he did not even want to bet you, and sure there could be a way of making the terms bettable.. but 10/1 odds?  I am having my doubts if those are fair reflections of the level of confidence being expressed, so far.. but sure, if you can get someone to proclaim something to be nearly certain about some facts, then yeah.. I suppose 10 to 1 odds is more than reasonable .. since it is 90% rather than 100%.

Even if we could arrive at 10 to 1 odds, I would think that your budget might really ONLY be able to allow you around .001 at most.. perhaps?..

and by the way.. even though goldkingcoiner does seem to like betting.. part of the reason that goldkingcoiner likely has a decent amount of BTC would be that he is likely somewhat measured in the ways that he bets.. we have already seen quite a bit of that from his historical forum participation..  

By the way, I was considering not saying anything.. but from the whole escalation angle ... holy moley.....    You might even make a street fighter start to feel uncomfortable.. and I would hope that our atmosphere here need not be that rough and tumble even though we might want to verbally throw down on some of the various issues from time to time... but still..
Amen, i also dont think this fighting or betting will do anyone good. Also goldkingcoiner has no obligation to bet on anyone, he helped a guy out, who he thought did good, that’s it. He’s not dabs, so he can’t know everything another person did. Just like i have no clue everything death wish did, yet i still defended him, it’s the same situation.

Im not a friend of begging, but i also cant judge another person’s situation, even if this guy begged, it’s still anyones decision to help out or not, and when there’s serious accusations to be made, for something fishy going on, i would say tell it to the people who gave their money.

Get back on your feet death wish, fighting or betting people or taking more margin will just make ur situation worse and is a waste of time. There will be many open doors for a person with ur tech skills, so stop knocking against closed doors and get back on track.
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 10:50:06 AM
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The question is do you wanna buy something in the short term or not? If the answer is no, i dont see a reason to sell. Escaping into the dollar will save you from what?

No, I dont want to buy anything. Yes, maybe physical gold, to rescue my money from couple psychopaths that want us own nothing and be happy. I am pretty emotional right now so I wait this to settle. I did not expect it really would drop below 2017/18 ATH. This is a critical level for me. I was thinking that we could see 18K but I was not expecting it. And it does not even bounce. All those 6 digits predictions were wrong so I was sure all those sub 20K predictions will fail either.
Gold could be one way for peace of mind, to save some of your purchasing power long term, just don’t expect major gains from it.

Im not too concerned about what is happening now, because 1. the economic environment is way different than 2017/18, the biggest winners will probably be industrial commodities now. 2. the market will probably go after as many liquidations as possible, if you see how many btc ponzis like celsius are holding. 3. if we go back to a longer time horizon and evaluate Bitcoin from an economic point of view, nothing changed, if we’re looking at how money comes into existence, there’s many factors speaking for a slow long term organic adoption as hard money first.
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 09:53:03 AM
Well, that's one way to decouple. Someone is liquidating big time

Why wait for the weekend though, they should of done it yesterday.
Less volume on the weekend usually, makes it easier.

How’s everybody holding up?
Buying dips, no hard feelings.

Absolutely, I've read every one of his posts and each time I think he's a bigger idiot than the last; he never learns

You just proved that you have not read my posts.  Neither of you has!

I am not trading.  I am struggling to hang on and survive in a debt trap.  After multiple liquidations, my last shreds of BTC are still pinned down in a margin account by debt I can’t readily pay off because the damn margin account already ate most of my other assets.

“Hey, look, don't trade!” is unhelpful advice, when I am NOT TRADING.  (Not to mention, I never traded BTC—only bought, never intended to sell.)

That’s an easy mistake to make, serveria.com, if you have not read my posts.  No hard feelings.

I think that heslo must be trolling me.
1. It’s funny how people who don’t even know a person are quick to judge someone as idiot who’s in a desperate situation. What about a helping hand? Instead of trying to trash someone who is already down, just wait till y’all do one mistake in your lifes. And this is not an attack guys, but let’s build someone up instead of bringing him more down, i don’t think y’all are that weak.

2. @death_wish, try preparing a plan b, escaping margin trough more margin is highly unlikely. You’re in a debt trap now, but life isn’t defined by money in the first place(just a nice to have, except for people who are lame and don’t have anything else), the best things are free, so just a reminder to not forget living, even in a bad situation. Can help to get the head free again.

Consider selling 20-25% of my Bitcoin. Anyone else? I have this great reset theory and now they introduced the digital USD. Its going into that direction. I start to be worried BTC will end up like Luna, once the panic kicks in? Dumped to 18.6K and nobody is buying WTF.

I am in since 2013 and ever since holded BTC. Never took profits. Never sold. I would go nuts leaving this game without a cent in my pockets after 9 years Cheesy

All these people writing only an idiot would sell at these levels. I remember people were saying the same at 69K while talking about 300K.
The question is do you wanna buy something in the short term or not? If the answer is no, i dont see a reason to sell. Escaping into the dollar will save you from what?

I think almost every single one of us has a kind of tendency to want to overdo it (and want to gamble and wants to expedite our process of becoming more richie faster).. and nearly every single one of us has to fight back those kinds of urges.. because there are also folks attempting to tempt us into spinning the wheel. 
This, i think the best rule is to just not put oneself into a possibly vulnerable situation ever, if not strictly necessary. Even if it means less profits in the moment, but i think in the end this approach leaves way less room for errors and will probably succeed more on average. Taking shortcuts almost always will come back to someone later on.
294  Economy / Economics / Re: World are going to WEB 5.0? What is WEB 5.0? on: June 15, 2022, 06:58:05 PM
You can’t show your passport to a police officer, for example, and then hope that he will “unsee” your data. You cannot order delivery from an online store without specifying your residential address, you cannot hide your insurance number when you call the hospital and you MUST give your insurance number. You cannot hide your face if hundreds of cameras are filming you at intersections, in the subway, and in shops!
Exactly, thats why i dont get what difference a DiD should make. But the problem here is how data is being stored and left vulnerable to criminals, companies, governments forever. The individual has almost no measures of protecting itself against this anymore. I dont get how Jack Dorsey wants to change that.

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Well, the most important question - does everyone really think that their data is the most valuable thing for all the criminals in the world? Well honestly!? Smiley
Nah, but it becomes a problem once you get targeted specifically, and then no one can help you.
295  Economy / Economics / Re: World are going to WEB 5.0? What is WEB 5.0? on: June 15, 2022, 02:56:12 PM
Don’t let the name confuse you, it’s just trying to mock web 3.0. Jack dorsey and his company is trying to build some kind of decentralized web, that gives you self custody over your data. How this will actually work in practice, idk yet.
296  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Hodlers are actively buying bitcoin these days on: June 15, 2022, 02:32:12 PM
This is not what it shows. This image shows the number of addresses that have a balance greater than 1 BTC. This, by no means, should be translated to "people who now own > 1 BTC".

you didn't get the point.
the point wasn't to figure out the exact number of people who own 1 whole bitcoin. the point was the increase itself and this chart shows it very well.

at all times there are people who split their coins among multiple addresses but their numbers don't change that much, when we the slope of this chart increases it shows more people are reaching that target instead of more people splitting their coins among multiple addresses.

Yup, can confirm seems like Bitcoiners use these situations well. Every Bitcoiner i talked to stacked more sats, the only people that lost, used margin or didn’t hold their own keys. There’s definitely indicators that confirm this trend, even tho we can’t quantify how much exactly.
297  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Universal Scam Test - Let's Apply it to Bitcoin on: June 15, 2022, 12:03:47 PM
Its tiring to run in circles Snowshow, so lemme explain what you didnt get yet.

1. What’s money?

- A good that enables a system of indirect trade(contrary to a barter system)
- Has 3 main properties ->
   1. Ability to hold value over time(Store of Value)
   2. Ability to be easily sent and accepted over large distances(Medium of Exchange)
   3. Ability to be easily grouped and divided(Unit of Account)

2. How are these properties achieved?

- A Store of value needs
   -> 1. Scarcity(Supply relative to other goods)
                              
Bitcoin(21 million limit), Fiat(unlimited and rising), Gold(Scarce, but not limited)

   -> 2. Durability(No loss in functionality with repeated use)

Bitcoin(digital, so durable), Fiat(mostly digital now, but less durable), Gold(was the most durable once, could still be considered the most durable depending on the pov)

- A Medium of Exchange needs
   -> 1. Acceptability(Used and accepted by others)

Bitcoin(still low), Fiat(highest), Gold(high, but not everywhere)

   -> 2. Portability(Easily moveable across distances)

Bitcoin(extremly easy and fast, can move faster than the person itself, least costly solution for high amounts today), Fiat(Bills need to be transported manually(also dangerous), banking system takes a long time over large distances, need to be converted into different currencies), Gold(terribly hard, expensive and dangerous)

- A Unit of Account needs
   -> 1. Divisibility(Easily dividable into smaller units)

Bitcoin(Easy, 8 decimal places), Fiat(also good), Gold(terrible, needs a lot of work)

   -> 2. Fungibility(1 unit is the same as the other)

Bictoin(All units are the same, altough some people argue that the history of coins can affect its desirability for others, cant be counterfeited), Fiat(Bills are the same, but higher ones arent accepted everywhere, can be counterfeited, less relevant for digital fiat), Gold(theres different coins with different desirabilities, also its not easy to verify real gold for everyone)

Now what does only Bitcoin have -> Immutability(transaction finality).

3. What speaks for Bitcoin as money?

- Its superior in all properties listed above, except acceptability. If you think a potential money with superior propierties can gain acceptance over time, then its smart to invest in it, but know the risks.
- Greshams law(check it out yourself)
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Greshams-law

Theres for sure more to say, but this is enough for now. When you can debunk these points we can go on further.
298  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: JJG’s Outline of Bitcoin Investment Ideas on: June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM
Damn amazing post Jay

If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin.
What other assets do you think are worth considering in the current economic situation?

I don't feel very comfortable getting into discussions about the various ways to apportion your investment portfolio outside of bitcoin and the dollar (or whatever other fiat that you might have as your local currency).. so of course you have to measure your circumstances to figure out what your balance is going to be.

I don't have any problem with suggesting that any young / newbie investor to begin to build his/her investment portfolio by only focusing on bitcoin and cash, and once s/he gets up to a certain decently sizable amount, such as something like $50k, then at that point to consider the extent to which further diversification might be helpful.  Of course, the decently sizable amount has a considerable amount of subjectivity - because there might be some measure in which there might be questions about whether the investor feels that s/he is starting to feel that s/he has too many eggs in one basket.  Of course property and equity funds are not bad for attempting to offset having too much specialization but it might not even be any kind of compelling need to diversify until getting to some higher amount.. whether that is $200k or $500k or $1million.... at some point for each of us, we might feel some need to NOT have all our eggs in one basket.

Property for sure can tie you down geographically, contain a lot of expenses related to maintenance, taxes, ownership transfer costs and even an attack vector for possible liabilities and lawsuits that others can easily identify that you own it and viola.. all of a sudden there is a lien on it.  But, if you are geographically tied down anyhow, and you need to live somewhere, so it is not a bad thing to store some of your wealth and to diversify outside of bitcoin (even though we also know that property is also suffering from the pumping/inflation mechanisms of the government debt systems).

Thanks man, you dont gotta go in deeper, its always hard to recommend particular assets to a broad audience, because everyone needs/ situation is different. Growing such a large portfolio will also take time, we will have enough to do our homework till then. Was still interesting hearing your take.

I was discussing with friends last week and one of them said, trading is like gambling because one can lose all the Investment in the process of trading and also gain in the process of trading and I also see reason on the discussion, because trading also used prediction as gambling. I Know that they are not the same but in reasoning they are synonymous.

It’s just gambling if you don’t know what you’re doing and acting blindly. Acquiring shares of companies or something like gold, silver has nothing to do with gambling, capital needs to be allocated where value is created, for an economy to function.

I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.   If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio,  perhaps?

I actually thought about this too that getting a small amount of gold can make a whole lot of sense. Since Bitcoin will be volatile for quite some time, there could alway be some cases where we need some kind of unexpected emergency money in the moment. And then gold is perfect, because of the stability it offers.

Just like rn if someone would need money unexpectedly it would be a terrible time to sell Bitcoin. We dont have the luxury to choose yet, when to get some money out of Bitcoin, while not making big losses. With gold this doesnt really matter, its always pretty stable compared to other assets. So we could sell it easily and buy it back later. Also Gold is terrible to store in large quantities so something like 1% could give the portfolio some nice extra capabilities.

Quote
I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.

Yup theres also another a big factor investing plays for the economy, even tho i see how the whole system has become like a casino now. But if we go back to sane economics one day -> Businesses need liquidity, consumers need money.

Doing sane investments could be a win win situation for both. If consumers invested into companies theyre customers of themselves for example. The business could scale up their operations more, and the consumer gets more money to spend. But this can also go bad, if people are bad at investing and this will likely be the case. Forcing everyone to invest is probably always a bad idea for society as a whole. A hard money like Bitcoin could in theory work as an inbuilt savings mechanism for everyone(slight deflation trough lost coins), and serve people better, because they dont need to go to third parties to see their money grow, it just happens automatically and is distributed to everyone equally. Altough this still needs to be confirmed in practice.

Right now were in a bad situation for everyone, because fiat keeps devaluing so much, that it forces everyone to either spend their money fast or invest it. Now we have an education system that refuses to teach financial literacy, and we see a growing gap between poor and rich. We have one part of the population that can play this game perfectly and the other part is forced to get into something they were never prepared for. Its obvious who will win.

And why i said bad for everyone, because this tanks the economy in the process, a healthy society needs to balance itself out. If no more care is taken of poor/ workers then the system cant work out in the long run(even tho they try to keep it alive artificially) and wealth wont matter much anymore. Loose- Loose for everyone. But at the same time a system that vilifies wealthy people, will have all their prosperity run away and end in poverty for everyone. There needs to be a healthy balance between the two, smh like someone is testing us.

The world needs sound money asap.
299  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin making computers more EFFICIENT & powerful making the world save ENERGY? on: June 15, 2022, 01:24:28 AM
Bitcoin is way more efficient than anything else for the job it’s supposed to do.

If you want to analyze Bitcoin only as a censorship resistant digital money transfer, then Bitcoin simply has no competition, aside from altcoins, which can be ignored, because they are not secure. And since Bitcoin has no competition in this sphere, talking about efficiency makes no sense, because there's nothing to compare to.

But we can still talk about adoption by global population and energy use. Bitcoin is adopted by 0.4% of world's population, and only a small fraction of those people do transactions regularly, while Bitcoin consumes 0.1-0.2 of world's electricity. This isn't efficient, compared to other industries. Bitcoiners often say that video streaming or gaming consume even more electricity than Bitcoin, but those things provide utility to 10-30% of global population.


I'm not saying here that Bitcoin should be more efficient, or should be shut down because it's inefficient. I just don't want Bitcoin community to lie to the world, because in the long run the world will figure it out, and Bitcoin community will lose trust.

I get your point and it’s fair, i just want to broaden the perspective, that scaling in a decentralized is way harder than in a centralized one. The non bitcoin world often portays it as if bitcoin uses energy for no reason, but the truth is there’s no other way than this currently. If we want decentralized infrastructure we have to use energy.

I think we should also point out the differences in centralized vs decentralized architecture, so people actually understand why it does this and why some limitations are there.
300  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin making computers more EFFICIENT & powerful making the world save ENERGY? on: June 15, 2022, 12:36:25 AM
Various infographics show that that banking industry consumes the same order of magnitude of electricity as Bitcoin. But Bitcoin processes up to 1 million transactions per day, while banking industry processes nearly all digital transactions in the world. Even with Lightning Network Bitcoin wouldn't be able to be used by all people in the world. Currently around 30 million people own Bitcoin, while everyone owns fiat. So Bitcoin is actually extremely inefficient between how much energy it consumes and how much utility to the world it provides.
Utility is more complex than transactions per day. The banking industry processes 0 decentralised, immutable, permissionless transactions a day, so in this regard they don’t provide any censorship resistance to the world, while bitcoin does. And this just one of many factors that play into utility. Bitcoin can’t do everything at the same time, without having any limitations or time to grow. These two are also complete opposites with completely different use cases. Bitcoin is way more efficient than anything else for the job it’s supposed to do.
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