If his attack is real (and he may be bluffing) and XMR doesn't recover (i.e. he can't gain by buying it cheap), then we can surmise his contribution is "forced evolution". Consider an alternative meaning, wherein the evolution involves teaching the community not to be sheep. Afaik, BCX is apparently involved in "operation shitcoin cleanout". Apparently many people complained to him that XMR is a shitcoin. Apparently he claims he found some vulnerabilities, but he didn't particularly feel motivated to attack XMR, possibly meaning he didn't feel it was a shitcoin. But perhaps his appraisal was near to some threshold and some events pushed him over the edge and he decided to force the XMR community to prove it is worthy or insolent. Just one possible theory for the chain of events.

It could also be that Moneroman88 pushed him into a corner to defend his reputation. Then when I published the idea about private keys, he decided to issue a deadline. So perhaps that was the event that forced him to put pressure on the developers to hunt down an alleged problem.

Edit: again I am not alleging any proof that there is an attack. I am still analyzing and trying to determine if there is any evidence of abnormalities.

Fail. You don't pay attention. The event was two of those, plus two with two blocks in a minute, and all four of the intervals consecutive.

Picked the most recent 12.

http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks

242773    14-10-02 05:35:56
242772    14-10-02 05:35:56
242771    14-10-02 05:35:42
242770    14-10-02 05:34:35
242769    14-10-02 05:32:59
242768    14-10-02 05:31:30
242767    14-10-02 05:30:29
242766    14-10-02 05:28:55
242765    14-10-02 05:26:41
242764    14-10-02 05:25:48
242763    14-10-02 05:25:24
242762    14-10-02 05:22:34

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 3 in one minute, one occurrence of 2 in one minute, and 7 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 3!e) × (1² / 2!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)⁷ = 0.001%

So that is within a factor of 5, and note my model above isn't incorporating the effect of the slow blocks. So that anecdotally confirms your claim.

However the math above is wrong because for a perfect distribution the probability would be even less.

p = (1¹ / 1!e)¹² = 0.0006%

Instead we shouldn't be be comparing 12 gaps. Rather for the example above there are 9 intervals of one minute, so the probability for a perfect distribution over 9 intervals is as follows.

p = (1¹ / 1!e)⁹ = 0.01%

Thus the example we were considering was only 4 intervals of one minute. So let me test your claim again as follows.

242773    14-10-02 05:35:56
242772    14-10-02 05:35:56
242771    14-10-02 05:35:42
242770    14-10-02 05:34:35
242769    14-10-02 05:32:59
242768    14-10-02 05:31:30

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 3 in one minute, and 3 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 3!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)³ = 0.8%

Sorry that fails your claim. Let's test another.


242767    14-10-02 05:30:29
242766    14-10-02 05:28:55
242765    14-10-02 05:26:41
242764    14-10-02 05:25:48
242763    14-10-02 05:25:24

That looks roughly to be one occurrence of 2 in one minute, and 3 occurrences of roughly 1 per minute (slightly longer than a minute so my summary is not a precise model).

p = (1³ / 2!e) × (1¹ / 1!e)³ = 1.25%

Sorry that fails your claim.

Now you see why independent verification is important. Ball in your court. What is my mistake?

I am spending so much time on this because I am generally interested from the standpoint of altcoin development. Thus modeling the block chain is an interesting topic.

Variation of hash rate indeed would violate the Poisson assumption of "the average frequency of occurrence for the time period in question is known". I don't understand how you think geographics affects the model? Isn't clustering modeled by Poisson?


90% of the time? Really? That is profound. Then we should be able to look at any 120 minutes and find 9 occurrences most of the time.

Wait I will find a block chain explorer and verify your claim anecdotally. BRB...

Afaics, because the probability of any trial is always 0.5 in your coin toss. Thus in your analogy there is no stratification of event classes. Whereas I showed that event is in a very rare class (given the Poisson distribution). Thus we wouldn't be including much less rare events in our consideration when summing all the probabilities of the event class we are interested in.

The details matter. Which is why I can't entirely trust closed source proclamations. Skepticism (independent verification and attempting to find an exception) is the basis of the scientific method. I would be a puppet or a clown otherwise.

Edit: I never wrote anything implying there must be something wrong. I am just skeptical of the claim that a rare event hasn't occurred. I am trying to convince myself that BCX doesn't have an attack sneaking up on us. I am playing devil's advocate trying to not blind myself with overconfidence. I think what may motivate BCX is defeating overconfidence. Or maybe he is just full of shit. I dunno. I was surprised to see him come back in the thread and reiterate his original 22 days estimate. It makes me laugh that posters here think he is being inconsistent when he wrote 22 days long before this thread started, if I remember correctly. And he never promised fireworks upon reaching the 72 hour deadline. Where is the inconsistency? I was also surprised to see him challenge the owners of this forum to prove that Moneroman88 is BCX. The DDoS on poloniex is baffling. There is some game theory going on here that I don't see. Ah maybe everyone is correct, he is just profiting on the movement in the price. And then I would be a pawn.

I don't see any data. Open source it.


Correct. We would need to add up all the probabilities of every permutation, which is what I noted in my prior message.

However, your analogy is inapplicable. Do you know why?

Why are you so pissed off? If you have a refutation, then present it. Ad hominem doesn't add information for the readers.

Note you are so emotional, that you didn't even pay attention to what I wrote. I said my correction is to bring it into agreement with the requirements of a Poisson distribution. Note I didn't make any proof that a Poisson distribution applies here. So you are building an ad hominem strawman.

Note what I wrote is misleading because there innumerable other rare events, and when all those probabilities are summed, then the probability of any one of them occurring is much less rare than I stated above.

One objective is to refute the dismissal upthread stating that the above event could occur every hour. Please show me such an event occurring every hour.

I believe the math above is incorrect, because each 1 minute trial is independent (which is one of the requirements for a Poisson distribution). Thus we have four consecutive events, two are 4 blocks in a minute and two are 2 blocks in a minute. Thus the probability is as follows.

p = (1⁴ / 4!e¹)² × (1² / 2!e¹)²  ≈ 0.000795%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 125,794 minutes which is every 87 days!

If my correction is correct, we do have evidence of something rarely occurring.

Apparently you weren't privy to the private messages.

I never wanted to get involved. I was asked to get involved in a private message by one of the developers affiliated with a prominent Cryptonote coin.

Before I went further, I stated in private messages the terms under which I would try to find an exploit. And the terms were agreed to. Dishonoring contracts is mayhem and the economy would collapse. If any parties to the contract feel after the fact that it was not a win-win, then they can in the future be aware not to enter such a contract. I entered the contract in good faith.

I am not going to respond to any more of your irrational speculation. You speak about issues of which you lack knowledge.

Okay but many have claimed the hashrate or difficulty increased in response to a potential attack. I thought this was a reason BCX might not attack. Is there a historical graph somewhere?

I already did.


The onus is on the attacked to insure they are safe and disprove, not on me to go develop the attack that is claimed. The BTC I was offered in a bounty had no requirement for me to show how to attack private keys. Per agreements in the private messages with Risto and the developers, I only had to show an attack on the anonymity for which they don't already have mitigation in place. I did the private key investigation for free. I was just trying to think about possibilities.

That is your misinterpretation. He claimed he was attempting forced evolution, i.e. a form of creative destruction.

Consider the $billions and $trillions at stake in terms of getting crypto-currency battle-hardened asap.

Your small mind thinks small.


If you send your transaction to the network in such a way that it reveals your private key, then you have given away your funds. No one has stolen them. Where is your certificate of title and who was it issued by?

You are confusing with fiat. This is not fiat. The Queen of England doesn't grant you title to crypto-currency as she does with fiat (and be careful if you don't understand the law and thinking I am stating hyperbole!).

You are just so used to being a serf, you have no clue how to be a sovereign.


What has BCX ever done to you? You whine like a bitch.

If you don't like the heat of the wild west of sovereignty, then leave the kitchen and go back to your King.


Prove it.

I never agreed with making DDoS a crime. It is fair play within the protocol of the internet. But most people don't want to be sovereign, they'd rather be owned by a King. You don't understand the following.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." ATTRIBUTION: BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, Pennsylvania Assembly: Reply to the Governor, November 11, 1755.—The Papers of Benjamin Franklin, ed


I didn't say it is a gift. I said I deal with objectivity, reality and sovereignty. You deal with speculation which you can't prove and in protection and ownership by your King.

You haven't read my posts carefully. That whitepaper did not address all of the possible simultaneous equations.

I am not playing any good cop role. I am just attempting to be rational and objective. You don't even have reading comprehension skills, therefor you can't be rational. Or the causation could be the latter causes the former.

I don't think you are qualified to judge whether the effort and insights I did were valuable or not. Perhaps you won't know for 11 more days. Or it might even take longer than that to determine the value.

Have the developers been able to account for the increased hashrate to be sure the increase isn't controlled by BCX?

Afaics conceptually, the decentralized checkpoints would not prevent BCX from stealing wallets if he had an attack on the private keys of the genre I was exploring upthread. If he can take over the chain from a checkpoint forward, the he can see transactions before they are added to the chain, thus if the private key could be cracked, he could double spend the transaction, discarding the original transaction and putting one on the block which pays to himself.

Upthread we never showed a way to crack the private keys. All I showed was an idea of how to potentially identify which public key in the ring is the sender in some cases. And from that, I noted it makes some more simultaneous equations available for the private key. Whether those simultaneous equations can be solved faster than factoring a public key is not known to me. If someone knows, afaics they haven't told us in this thread.

If it is difficult to speculate about BCX's motivations. It seems he is either bluffing to save his reputation, or perhaps he is attempting to instill some humility in the altcoin space. I dunno.

Perhaps he is waiting for someone to make an insight into the sort of attack that might be possible and fix it, so he would then say his attack was thwarted.

P.S. If I don't reply, it doesn't mean I am ignoring. I may have not come back to read yet.


Hey take your fully insured fiat with training wheels which the government will be soon shoving up your bankrupted a$$.

Technological attacks are fair play and it is the only way we can be sure crypto-currency is robust and resilient.

There was no prospectus guaranteeing your investments. If the technology allows your digital units to be transferred, it is your responsibility to know that and not invest if you don't like the risk.

Once you ask the government to regulate crypto-currency, then the entire point of crypto-currency is lost. So this space is not for you and women. Go back to fiat.

The math shows no such evidence has been presented thus far in this thread. That doesn't mean something isn't occurring though.

I don't know about my health because haven't done the blood tests, xrays, and head scan yet. Maybe next week. All I can say for now is that with my current condition, I can't work a lot on the computer as it makes me very ill. Getting off the computer and out in the sunshine for days reduces the ill feelings. And concur upthread on the suggestions about natural diet.

I see 12 blocks in 4 minutes.

We apply the Poisson distribution.

The probability that we will get 4 blocks in 4 minutes when the expected rate is 1 block per minute (4 blocks per 4 minutes) is:

p = 4⁴ / 4!e⁴ ≈ 19.5%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 5 minutes.

The probability that we will get 12 blocks in 4 minutes when the expected rate is 1 block per minute (4 blocks per 4 minutes) is:

p = 4¹² / 12!e⁴ ≈ 0.064%, i.e. an occurrence expected roughly every 1559 minutes which is every 26 hours.

And note that the probably we get 10 - 14 blocks in 4 minutes is going to several times higher because we sum the probabilities for each of 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14, thus an occurrence expected several times per day.

The definition of polynomial time is precisely the time complexity class O(n^k).

The relevance is that for NP complexity class, very small increases in n causes exponential (not polynomial) increases in computation cost.

If the best known inversions of SHA256 are NP, then NP is relevant because it means there is some smallish value of n for which no inversion is practical. Afaics, this is what complexity theory gains us.


Sir, in year 2000 I paid $30,000 for a week of work to Jeff Stock a former lead developer of Borland C to code the Objects Window in my Cool Page product. He had tested it with a few objects. I loaded it up with 1000 objects and it slowed to molasses. I asked him to fix the problem. After a few days he hadn't fixed it, so I took an hour to study his code and changed one line which reduced the time complexity from O(n^k) to O(log n).

Afaics, time complexity is relevant to computer science practice in the real world.

Size of the solution space isn't the right word. I mean the function of the size changes from exponential (n^k) to polynomial (n^O(1)).

If it is possible to convert the computation time (resource cost) from an exponential function of to a polynomial function of the inputs of the algorithm, then the complexity has been reduced from NP to P.

I cited a link which I believe demonstrated this, although I may be mistaken.

The search space for brute force inversion of SHA256 is 2^bits, e.g. a 128-bit hash has 2¹²⁸ possible outputs. All known methods for inverting SHA256 are NP relative to bits, and often cryptanalysis attacks remain in NP and only reduce the exponent by a factor that makes them practical solve for certain n. For example for finding collisions, the birthday attack is 2^bits/2. However, some attacks may reduce the complexity to P, e.g. a quantum computer (Shor's algorithm) on RSA reduces integer factorization from sub-exponential to polynomial.

NP requires that the solution can be verified in polynomial time. For example, the verification that the input to a hash produces a certain output.

Please feel free to correct me if I am still wrong.

Despite seeing some signs for hope from AHCC treatment, the symptoms affecting my head and nausea have worsened, and especially so in past 2 - 3 days. And today especially so to the point I'm become very worried that I have brain cancer. I will retire from the forum for a while to look into getting a brain scan. In the past 36 hours or so, I have become nearly incapable of functioning normally.

My feeling of well being (symptoms) has (have) been a rollercoaster ride, so there is always the chance I might feel better again. Nevertheless I feel I may have reached that defining moment when a person realizes they are not going to get better.

---

I traded several PMs with jl777 and my interpretation is his teleport design attempts to be at least an improved Tor for the basic case of his design. I don't have any comment on other aspects of his designs at this time. I make no endorsement, only to make a statement as to what I think minimally it could provide if he gets all the details done correctly. I am simply not close enough to all the details of the ongoing design and implementation to make any determination of an endorsement or criticism. Also I'd prefer not to play that role. My objective was to try to help. I made at least two minor tweak suggestions to him.

Thanks for pointing that out.

I am not sharp at this time, operating on perhaps 20-60% of normal mental state. Imagine the feeling you have when you stand up too quickly and almost blackout. The CFS and dizziness is something like that effect, and wavering in and out of degree but persistent of presence.

Correction DAF not DAP:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_Development_Assistance_Fund_scam


Yup that is how they fool you.

Just like it was impossible to convince a native 100 years ago not to sell the rights to his 100 hectares in exchange for a mirror, it is also impossible to explain to humans that if you make something free which is not free, then the price of that resource skyrockets. See my prior post about the math of the coming collapse of inflated real estate and medical system.

I can drive from Makati to Pasay airport in 10 minutes on the $1 elevated toll road. Because 99% of the filipinos prefer to be stuck in traffic for an hour instead of paying the extra $1.


Yeah you think laws are better than chaos and freedom. You want to give up everything you had that was truly a gift from the earth in exchange for those shiny things you think are better. Soon you won't be able to survive without money in the city, as you could before on your own land.

Laws are to enslave you. They are not your friend. You filipinos think we have better organization and better quality lives. So you want to be just like us. You don't know we are already slaves? We work for 9 months every year just to pay our taxes. Then we work the other 3 months just to pay for all the inflated prices. And we have left over, in many cases women who hate men and don't fall deeply in love. Welcome to the lie of feminism (note the women are not contented either and this is confirmed by studies). Luckily we have our Starbucks and other addictions to keep us numb so we won't realize how much we've lost.


I hope you are correct, but they will soon start sending DSWD agents to have community distributions of birth control pills and telling the women that they don't have to burden themselves with children, so they can have better more prosperous lives. This is how it started in our countries too. Once you get the women hooked on avoiding pregnancy, they never go back!

If you were going to stop this, you would have to be ready to deny those DSWD agents access to your communities. I mean a true rise in tribalism again and villages scolding outsiders bearing evil gifts.

---

---

Most people don't have a bank account, because it requires a shitload of documentation that takes days to gather and requires expenses.

But you are missing the point. About 1 million or more filipinos are working online earning money through sites such as oDesk.com. They all have a bank account, because that is how they get paid via their ATM cards.

And the government will be raising the income taxes rates in the coming decade as the global economy rebalances when the western countries collapse after 2016. So by 2032, you all will be paying 6 months of your income to the government just like we do.

You just can't see it coming, so you don't stop it.


Except perhaps you haven't thought it out. It is entirely useless until you can actually pay for many things with crypto locally. Otherwise you need to convert your remittance at a bank or padala any way. So nothing gained.

Why do you think I was working on a cryptocurrency that would spread like a wildfire so that it would become demanded by the people of the world.

But alas my work may never come to fruition because I may be dying of brain cancer. Be careful who you have sex with. This is what HPV can do to your body. And no it wasn't a prostitute, it was my ex.


I hope so. I don't know if you understand visaya, but I do hope the filipinos will remain "gahi ulo".


Thanks for the correction.

Ingat amigo.