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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: May 20, 2014, 04:45:51 PM
Just piping in here to say this isnt a circle jerk and there are more people following your stuff than you think  Wink
282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:37:08 PM
So, panic buying once $475 is broken?

I have the finger pointed on the red button personally. Jumping in @ 480.

So you're in?

It would take some serious nuts to be shorting this.
283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 20, 2014, 03:08:39 PM
daily volume is still low ... we have to wait. looks more like some panic buys because there was no drop to the down side.

why would that indicate a panic buy?
284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 09, 2014, 03:52:20 PM

Look, btcwisdom has Bollinger bands now. How convenient.





Like I said a few days ago, I don't want to be a pessimist, but I prefer to wait til there's actually something noteworthy going on before I start cheering.

Not only didn't we break through a number of plausible (log) downwards trendlines that have been making the rounds for a while now, we're not even in the upper BB half. Go back to July 2013 to see what a decisive reversal looks like wrt BB.

If we manage to fight our way into the upper half of daily BB, and then break through the upper band, or alternatively (and more realistically) bounce off of it but at least find support at the BB mid line (SMA20, now at 460), I'm going to get cautiously bullish, but not earlier.


But I already know what the bulls will say... that's just a permabear talking, trying to spoil our fun Cheesy

If we would be at the top of the bands, we would have already broken the triangle... So if they go up that high, they will go far far higher... ie this is not the best indicator to be using at the moment.
285  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will uptrend start? on: May 07, 2014, 05:38:32 AM
The uptrend cant be predicted with technical analysis.. as it is trigged with news.. like one country adopting it or china unbanning

thats actually not true. The buying pressure was there long before the news was there in the previous bubbles.
286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2014, 04:38:46 PM
I told you few days ago, that bitstamp is going to be closed  due to some illegal activities. That wasnt just a rumor;)

Please, enlighten us.
as far as my sources teold me. Bitstamp is involved is some illegal activity, presumably  some paedophile groups use  bitstamp to exchange money. That is why bitstamp  is going to be closed for investigation etc  next week or so.

obvious fud is obvious.
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2014, 02:58:46 PM


Either that or we have already broken out to the upside. Just need volume for confirmation.
288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Arepo's Weekly Newsletter Discussion and Analysis on: April 27, 2014, 08:45:00 PM
Honestly seems like a health problem or a family emergency or something. Its not like he ran off with a huge amount of coins or something.
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goomboo's Journal on: April 27, 2014, 09:24:07 AM
I don't think such a managed fund you are seeking for exists. It's rather tough to continually successfully beat Buy&Hold.

I dunno man, the way I see it buy and hold has been a bad idea since late November:






Try scrolling out a year with your timeline and then tell me which strategy is better.
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: April 27, 2014, 08:18:42 AM
One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)





As far as bearish scenarios goes, i would say it doesnt get an more clear than this. Good job.

Why you call this scenario bearish? It is actually bullish (except short term) as it assumes that bottom has been reached already. I am actually not sure of this - that is, even more bearish.

bullish would be a fairly quick rebound to 700+.

291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something, something, something, technical analysis on: April 26, 2014, 02:50:43 PM
One more post on triangles (of doom), i.e. possible boundaries of a continuation of the downtrend that governed price action since early December (We're getting close to 5 months now. Quite the bear market, huh?)





As far as bearish scenarios goes, i would say it doesnt get an more clear than this. Good job.
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 21, 2014, 03:12:33 PM
Just read over on reddit that Germany classifies BTC as "private money".  This is some good news.

Isn't that very old news?

It is.

I still do not understand what that means, though.


its a special german classification which is the same classification they use for gold. This means that if you hold for longer than a year the gains are tax free.
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: April 21, 2014, 09:09:21 AM
Just need some volume for confirmation and then the end of the bear?  Shocked



http://imgur.com/XAlilkl

(edited because for some reason imgur is blocked today...)
294  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning on: April 18, 2014, 01:08:19 PM
Would love to hear an update from the folks here on how the discussion went with Paypal...
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coindesk Says "Bitcoin is headed for Bust" on: April 12, 2014, 06:03:12 PM
did you even read the article?
296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: April 12, 2014, 05:38:11 PM
I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture
solved

nope.

How? It's a triangle. It broke to the downside. That means it's solved. What that means for further price action is another question, but at least in the immediate aftermath of the downwards breakout, we saw a new low, so waiting for the triangle to resolve was the right choice.

we had a huge rejection of the downside of the triangle with volume. Sometimes there are false breakouts and retests. there are no such things as certainty.


Yep, took the words right from my hands. The triangle lives on.
297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: April 12, 2014, 01:34:58 PM
What about this scenario? Critics are welcome.



Graph itself: https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a/

looks pretty solid to me.
298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: April 12, 2014, 05:18:43 AM
I just wait this shit to resolve in either direction. But indicators sjow very bearish picture


solved

nope.
299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 07:26:34 AM
Yes, you are doing something wrong.

Solution: Trade on larger time frames.

Too much noise otherwise, especially in bitcoin. You wont just lose money, you will also lose your sleep and then your sanity.

Fair enough, but having read the last 400 pages of this thread, it is still unclear to me what the long-term trend will be. So it is hard for me to decide whether to wait in BTC or in fiat. Besides, why should I miss out on riding these waves when everyone else here does it? (not arguing, just asking)

I was doing rather well until 30 hours ago.

Anyhow my brain is fried. I just bought BTC, so the way my luck is going, expect a massive downtrend until I'm back.


trading on a weekly timescale in bitcoin is almost trivially easy. History doesnt repeat itself... but it certainly rhymes.
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 06:57:40 AM
~26 hours ago when we first dipped down from 440 to 400 I was sleeping at the time (I'm in Europe), and I lost money by sleeping in BTC. Sold at 400 when I woke up and watched the fireworks. Last night I was up until 3am watching the price go down to 355, went to sleep for 4 hours in fiat, and woke up at 400.

What the fuck.

Am I just really unlucky or am I doing something wrong? Why do massive changes occur at roughly 3:00 am UTC? Am I missing something?


Yes, you are doing something wrong.

Solution: Trade on larger time frames.

Too much noise otherwise, especially in bitcoin. You wont just lose money, you will also lose your sleep and then your sanity.
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