Good question from reddit.
Which breaks their June 2019 peak first?
Monero at $120 Bitcoin at $13800
Well, XMRBTC could lose over 10% and it would still get there first. In other words if Monero stays above 0.0087 then Bitcoin will catapult it over 120 before BTC made it to 13800. So, in my opinion it is EXTREMELY likely that Monero makes 120 while Bitcoin is still on the way to 13800. ***EDIT*** Get ready to see .01 shortly! I think it could be very normal for that to put up a little resistance/profit taking due to the gigantic psychological factor. |
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Congrats gents... we just made a new yearly high, I think.
This is not insignificant.
In fact you gotta go back to June 19 to beat it... and back then we fell quickly from .0115. So there is not much technically between here and another 12-13% up.
Someone(s) has been loading up on XMR for the better part of 4-5 months. Almost everything else out there is treading water.
I suppose we should get ready to sell some news?
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In USD the next trading ranges are:
Between 95-115
Between 115-140
Open skies!
The timeframe is the harder question, and I think depends on the broader crypto markets.
I expect those two areas to put up fights.
The reason I am talking USD is because I think a lot of the new money coming in will be thinking in USD, and bitcoin's rise also brings us into those areas.
Looking at it in the more important XMR/BTC shows a similar potential progression, though.
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Over the last year Monero transaction count has QUADRUPLED, and is basically at an ATH.  |
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This is looking nice and healthy.  Healthy indeed. This is not the springy action of a pump and dump sort of asset. For example, right now we see BSV in the pre-coingeek pump that happens every time (money to be made if you can stand the stink) they have a conference. But Monero does not tend to follow that sort of line. It trades more organically. When Microstrategy was buying 10s of thousands of bitcoin they had the luxury of being able to use an extremely active OTC market. And there are certainly some OTC desks that handle Monero (I dunno Kraken? others?) but the reality is it is still an extremely thinly traded asset compared to big daddy. I would posit that this is the very best that money moving into Monero can do in regards to not moving the market. What we are seeing is sustained, patient buying. Monero is #15 in market cap, but #10 in trading volume (measured in USD). This is a sort of bullish divergence (of a kind) in my opinion. Since it shows that there is more trading action for Monero than all but 9 other coins. Of course this is hard to measure, and fake volume is rampant... with nearly 1 billion traded in the last 24 hours at a place called "Citex?" But Monero has SIGNIFICANTLY more volume there than even Ethereum, and is second only to Bitcoin. Even TradeOgre shows it at #2 with neatly $30k in volume, which is a lot of volume at basically a dark market exchange. The other thing that possibly even WE forget is that Monero can be traded just about invisibly. Anything happening outside of a reporting exchange is fully in the dark thanks to the properties of our little buddy. I think something is definitely going on out there in Monero-land. And the fun thing is, if this buying pressure holds up it is just about to thrust us over a fairly significant threshold. Once we sustain prices in the 0.0095 range it gets to be pretty clear skys for the most bullish price action we have seen in years. Here's to that being the case! It's hard not to be excited. |
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It's times like these when I almost wished I cared about the entire sector. I feel like then I might have a good idea considering all the rest of the alts... But the two projects I care about are in kind of different places.
Bitcoin is consolidating and building steam to start the last few runs (months?) to ATHs, and Monero is testing an area where it is making an approach for a breakout from hibernating for really a couple years. Are the other major alts in the same spot?
You guys can kick my ass if I jinx it... at least for very long. But I feel it.
I feel it.
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what an entertaining shitshow. cory really seems to hate planB and doxxed planB age and other stuff. I have heard planB on podcasts and he sure does sound like he is in his 40ies or so. cory says he is in his early 20ies. planB is hinting that cory used swanbitcoin customer data, which cory is the CEO of. cory is very busy defending his attack, planB is silent. Peter McCormacks is tweeting that he thinks planB is 100trillion years old. is that what has happened? I feel like a trashy tabloid reporter.  The Cory guy just showed exactly how to drive your budding business straight into the ground at 200MPH in my humble opinion. What an ass. I do not care about S2F, one way or the other... But what he tired to do was entirely non-classy. |
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Happy Sunday, folks.
Fifty Thousand projected.
This time next year, yo.
I hope you are right. But I also hope you are off by an order of magnitude. |
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No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.
You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above.  |
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My 2c about Saylor's buy of $425 mil in btc.
Contrary to everybody's enthusiasm, I found it troublesome.
1. The smart way of buying would be buying calls, then be aggressive, not making 20K tiny tx. If you have calls, then you don't care much if market moves or not as a result of your buying.
2. How he was able to find $425mil sellers without moving a market? It's not like all other buyers and sellers disappear.
Something does not compute.
To me this is an indication that market has some re-hypothecated btc and large portion of the volume is such "imaginary" btc.
It does not matter that he was able to withdraw. It simply means that they re-hypothecated even more and injected those back to exchanges.
I suspect the exchanges of the world have 10 to 20% of the coins they claim to have. I imagine most volume is based on reserves they dont actually have. This would be the source of what would be a somewhat novel experience in the world for finance. To the extent institutions (can we call Bitcoin exchanges that yet?) are playing games with fractional reserves they are risking a unique sort of disaster. Even a "run on the banks" could be solved by the Fed. In fact the whole repo thing we have been seeing is exactly that. But Bitcoin is uniquely limited, and the most extreme of bearer assets that we've ever created. The closest thing we have to it is Gold. But Gold requires this:  Bitcoin does not. Trace Meyer tried, back in the day to establish that yearly "run on the exchanges" with the whole "proof of keys" gimmick. But that never really took hold. The question is simple though... I propose the idea that we are in a unique situation with bitcoin, and a shift is coming due. Currently the main use case for Bitcoin is speculation. We have to admit it... it is still really mostly the magical internet money casino. But we might just be on the cusp of a paradigm shift. What happens when the dominant use case for Bitcoin changes from "casino" to "value store"? As that shift happens I cannot imagine the above situation will remain tenable. We are sitting on some sort of powder keg. What I am not 100% certain about is if it is the sort of powder keg that blows us to the moon, or the sort that just kills us all.  |
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11 days above 0.008 btc. that is new longest streak this year. It is also time for new YTH that is at 0.0095. It was about time. A lot of coins already made new YTH after March crash. Bitcoin and Ethereum both did it in July. Monero is harder to move.
I came here to post basically this. That we are now approaching the ATH for 2020 (.00945) as well as the ATH for the last cal year+ (.0115). Once it stakes a flag in that area I am seeing not much holding it back from it's old highs. I mean... I don't guess it can just shoot all the way back up, but it does not look like there is a lot of technical resistance back up to that point. Someone take this hopium pipe away from me before I suffocate myself. |
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Calling to my OGs... You guys can feel it, can't ya? I mean... it's been a while... like a hibernation.
But the time for snoozing is near to the end. The birds are starting to chirp outside, and it's still dark... but not as dark as the last time we got up to pee.
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Funny how a multi-millionaire Bitcoin supporter can say this (because it speaks truth) and get away with it and nobody says shit, while an average Joe retail bitcoiner says the exact same thing for years and gets called a "Bitcoin maximalist" and "small blocker".  Skin in the game. On the other hand he's definitely taken some heat along these lines:  |
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Funny how a multi-millionaire Bitcoin supporter can say this (because it speaks truth) and get away with it and nobody says shit, while an average Joe retail bitcoiner says the exact same thing for years and gets called a "Bitcoin maximalist" and "small blocker". I'm still keeping an eyebrow raised towards that Saylor dude. I want to believe he's a genuine long, but if there is one thing crypto has taught me, it's "Don't trust anyone". I totally understand your suspicion. And sort of feel it too... But the thing is he's the CEO of a publicly traded company. He can't be lying about this without HUGE consequences. Now his intent for how long he stays in?? Thats a different matter. If we get a big bump and he thinks he can get out at least partially with something like a 20% gain... well he certainly could. Have you heard any of his myriad interviews? He is a great actor if he's just pretending to have been bitten by the BTC bug. |
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Presented with no comment:  On track... This weekend I think:  Hmm. We did not quite come up as far as I had hoped before the next dip... The right shoulder looks a little sad and hunched, but let's see if this is the right shoulder... too busy to draw the chart... maybe I will later. The INV H&S is not entirely flat and has a bit of a downward hunch but we are finishing up the right shoulder right now. I would say we break out by the weekend. (Or not... you know... sometimes how these things go) -EDIT- I got too excited... this shoulder could take a week or so to play out... I think I am grasping at straws really I think my interpretation is likely invalid. But I don't care |
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It will be interesting to see how my channels I have opened with bitfinex act post this development. I had them maxed out at pre-wumbo channel amounts, and I am not sure I feel like enlarging them, or opening larger ones. But with multi-path payments active I expect my now small channels will still see action, maybe even more. My Bitfinex channels are already some of the most active I have, and I do not even really try to keep them balanced since they have always sort of been: whoosh all liquidity from one side to the other, and whoosh back again. These are sort of different than channels for a "purchaser" or a "vendor" which benefit from liquidity being either on one side, or the other, or balanced. Exchanges are going to be accepting and sending out big deposits all the time. I sort of think this new development will just mean my channels get even more active. |
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I don't put too much emphasis on the conspiracy theory angle for the same reason. I just don't have enough information.
It's obvious to me the markets are not free though. Manipulation by the Fed and other central banks is rampant, and how the markets react to it is a monument to the fact that markets are driven more so by liquidity than the true underlying fundamentals of investment assets.
As central banks pile debt onto their balance sheets (QE), this frees up more and more cash which is injected into all markets. BTC, precious metals, stocks, bonds, real estate......it doesn't matter. Every asset benefits in terms of price. The whole idea is to inject enough cash that sellers can't cause the markets to fall beyond "acceptable" levels, which would then begin to threaten the equity (stock portfolios, retirement funds, real estate) of the middle class. If the middle class falls, then the jig is up and the banks would completely collapse.
One could argue this sort of manipulation is done for the sake of economic stability and prosperity, not just to line the pockets of Wall Street. From where I stand, both arguments are equally viable and it doesn't really matter.
What really matters is that we understand the ultimate driving force in the market. It's liquidity, not fundamentals, and this is why Fed policy is the #1 concern of investors. This is the true nature of asset bubbles, and for the past few generations humans have been building the biggest asset bubble in history.
Of course, the way the money printing is carried out is meant to help to support the investments of the well-to-do folks in society - through equities (which are tied to 401ks, pensions, etc), and even though bitcoin receives a decent amount of the trickle down (or whatever you would want to call it), that does not mean that fundamentals do not matter. I'm not saying fundamentals do not matter. Not at all. This is a bit like the conversation we had about stock market correlation vs. magnitude. I see liquidity (and for the foreseeable future that means dollar liquidity) as the primary driver in terms of direction and trend. That also speaks to the positive correlation between stocks and BTC. Fundamentals (like Bitcoin's monetary properties) have more to do with magnitude. Have the recent large moves into BTC from Microstrategy had an impact on your thinking vis-à-vis the above? I am still digesting it. That amount of OTC buying certainly had to have had an effect on the spot market and probably dampened volatility and must have a palpable effect on the OTC markets, and it was big enough to probably do things to the price trajectory for the next 6 months in spite of whether other public companies follow that lead over the next 9-12 months and beyond. This is especially true in light of the halving. I feel like these forces are triangulating and they are going to... .... that's where it gets a little foggy for me. The more I think about it the more I think we are in for an interesting shift fundamentally... I do not understand it yet. |
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boom.gif
itshappening.gif
Good stuff coming gentlemen. Hold onto your hats.
I like bullish Elwar. What's happening? |
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Yeah... it was binance. Bitfinex only showing ~4k over the same time frame.
I don't really know what the real major Monero exchanges look like now. In fact I am curious what Bisq's volume looks like.
Monero would make me so proud if it starts one of it's mega rips right after I brought it up. Looking good so far.
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Dayum. I had a premature eschwingulation. Someone market buying nearly 40k of Montango on one exchange...  ***EDIT umm I mean 50k*** |
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