Let me guess, you're looking at (a) raw BTC volume and (b) on mtgox. Am I right? I know I'm right

That's what they said about loaded as well. And see where he is now.

Shorten your shorts, I say.

You can get Internet in prison nowadays! Amazing!

EDIT: also, I hope you're in better shape than the dude in the article I linked to.

I actually just logged into to bitfinex and shorted my short positions! That's how serious this is :/

   

Oh wow. So much happening right now...

First, as confirmed above, big time trader 'loaded' arrested in China (source), and now, another well known player, forum user rpietila arrested in Finland (source -- they basically call him "the Finnish Charlie Schrem").

This isn't good. Not good at all.

Haha, good luck educating the unwashed math-less anti TA/anti daytrading crowd. Might as well try to explain quantum mechanics to a brick

It's really strange. The way it looks I get the impression mtgox is *really* about to implode, this time.

Then I remember I've been thinking that for about a year by now, and it never happened.

This exchange is like a goddamn zombie, I swear :D

What a bitter lonely little man you must be. Don't act all surprised, when all you do is fuck barflies, if it turns out they're not exactly Rosalind Franklin level intelligence wise.

It's kind of sad when you think about it... you had all the chances in the world to date women in your IQ range when you were at university.

Thinking about it some more, you probably didn't.

Bitcointalk™ Where 'dumb as a brick' and 'probably rich' don't have to be mutually exclusive.

Would consider signing up (even for a longer running newsletter), but your analysis is based on btc-e, right? Any chance you could extend your service to Bitstamp? (and please don't say "the rates across exchanges are correlated anyway", they are, I know, but often enough there's a critical delay between trends on different exchanges, and it's tedious to translate signals from one exchange to another)

Sounds to me like your battle cry essentially boils down to If I'm not able to do it, nobody else is able to do it either. Bit immature if put like that, huh?

Or do you have any actual arguments as to why TA is completely, universally, across all time frames useless when applied to BTC. Because of whales? That would add an element of uncertainty to your analysis, but wouldn't necessarily make it useless -- keep in mind, the goal is not to be profitable all the time, but to make an overall profit over a long enough time span.

I'm just responding even though you didn't address me because it's kind of painful to read blanket statements like that... based on a "good" TA call I managed to pretty much exactly double my no. of coin in the immediate aftermath of the double top, and based on another "bad" TA call, but combined with proper risk management, I took a hit of less than 1% (the trades itself were basically neutral, but after fees apply, it was the small minus). So how often, and how consistently do I need to stay in the plus to allow myself the delusion that careful usage of TA is in fact profitable?

Mat, I realize you're in your "mild retard" phase lately, but this time you're going too far. Quoting the "whale" rpietila, taking anything he says at face value... you can't be that naive, can you?

Hahaha, I see... Masterluc is back in his I-want-to-rebuy-cheaper troll phase. Good luck

True. The exact graph we see isn't the only one possible, but a number of underlying conditions generating the price are, so any version of it would probably be equally exciting /infuriating /paranoia provoking.

Double post. 'cause I got another nugget of wisdom for you guys.

All those walls of text about manipulation here and miner profitability there and how it all can only mean one thing: DOWN DOWN DOWN, or the bullish alternative: buy back now or the CHOO CHOO leaves without you... they're just noise. They miss one insight I recommend hammering into your brain, mantra like, until you *get* it...

What we've seen for the past 3 odd years follows one simple rule:

For the bootstrapping phase of a global, peer-to-peer {reserve currency, store of wealth, payment system} USD/BTC necessarily looks the way it does;

The way USD/BTC looks is not sufficient to guarantee the success of this becoming a global, peer-to-peer {reserve currency, store of wealth, payment system}.

That is all. If you convinced yourself of the above, many of your little nervous breakdowns will simply go away. You can still daytrade if that's what you do best, you can buy & hold (which means you bet on the long term success as described above), or you can close your positions and leave (if you have serious doubts about the success of Bitcoin in the fields described above). But you probably won't look at each minor swing and see dark forces at work pulling string at the expense of the "small guy", whether it's pulling price up or pushing it down.

In reality, this is what one of the most amazing social experiments during my lifetime looks like, in which a plethora of market forces attempt to participate in the experiment in order to fulfill their own highest ranked desire (idealism, greed, curiosity). It couldn't be any other way.

You know, somehow I can tolerate Mat's doom & gloom brand of bearism... at least he has some skin in the game in a way most bears rarely do, he's actively shorting. I appreciate the drama around that, if not his analysis.

But you, Impaler...


You just sound like a pompous prick when you put on that bear suit.

I remember the last discussion we had about this topic.  August 7th, in one of chodpaba's threads. Price had dipped slightly below 100 again these days (on bitstamp), and based on the same "I have a deep insight into the psychology of miners" bullshit argument, you predicted, what?, going back to 50? Something like that. You recommended fucking shorting, in fact, a few days before a trend that took us from ~100 to ~1200.

I'm sure you will forgive me if I'm not exactly reading your analysis based on miners' sales/hoarding strategies with the utmost reverence.

Just wanted to let you know that the little exchange above, between Mat and sgbett, is one of the most amusing things I've read in here for a while...

"Keep on showing your leveraged tits! Those juicy melons are prime stinging fodder."

"If all you avaricious wankers can consider Bitcoin hitting 1 million, I can consider the much greater likiliehood of it dipping under $100 again."

You guys are on a run. Don't stop

There. Title adjusted. Glad he's still here.

Now predict the price for us, usdbtc monkey!

Ignore the clowns (like wobber). Nothing scammy about this service. Their newsletter is well done, the only complaint I have is that they tend to send a lot of signals, so the expected trading strategy is somewhat different from what I prefer (few, but large trades). Anyway, I never regretted subscribing, because it is still useful information even if I don't act on most of their signals (but I do use them as confirmation for my own trading choices).

Isn't it obvious? He knew too much. Those who set the BTC price (ancap space jews!) don't appreciate someone disclosing their fundamental price function, so they "advised" theymos to delete chodpaba's history.