What if gene therapy & nanotechnology allows you to live for hundreds of years or infinite? how much btc then?  And those treatments and methods will cost more money as well! But really, the chances of that actually happening anytime soon are very slim. If they happen, then you devise a plan that provides an income off of the principle, without eating into the principle. Accordingly, the $30,000 per year would account for the annual cost of living increase (about 4%), the appreciation in the asset (at least 5%) and the withdrawal rate (5%). Thus the accounting that I made above, that starts with the equivalent value of a principle of about $790K value.... The next question would be how many BTC would it take to achieve that approximately $790k level of value? If we estimate that BTC values will be anywhere between $2k and $50k per BTC in 2020, then that would mean anywhere between 15.8 BTC and 395 BTC would be sufficient to achieve the desired outcome. There remain quite a few unknowns and estimates; however, and if you are really unsure, then strive towards accumulating up to 395BTC would be helpful.. but if you are only able to accumulate 15.8BTC, you may get lucky and have enough BTC to serve your purposes.. I would aim towards the high end rather than the low end.. and then just see what happens in 5-6 years... This kind of planning should all go without saying that any such investor should continue to monitor BTC values and the market and world events other possible options (including crypto-currencies) and if it appears other options are appearing to be better than BTC or some other diversification of assets seems to be more likely to achieve the objective, then the money should be invested into those assets, rather than BTC... However, at this time, BTC seems to be among the best games in town in order to realistically aspire to such above-described goals:) |
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In your E.g., I need to buy something on eBay for BTC0.10 so I convert $60 to BTC0.10 to buy my good. If the seller than converts the Bitcoin he received for USD again there would be no price (or supply/demand) consequence.
Perhaps eBay get's more people buying BTC to hold for future purchases, but why? If I can buy in BTC and USD and I get paid by my employer in USD, what's the reason for me to transfer to BTC? It wouldn't be more convenient. It wouldn't guarantee me a better price.
Have to agree, eBay adding Bitcoin doesnt change much, only those having Bitcoin already might use it at eBay. This is my thinking of Bitcoin adoption: 1. cheap ASIC mining hardware 2. cheap secure hardware wallets for average Joe 3. over 10% of Employess worldwide getting paid in Bitcoin I think first step getting very close... Adding BTC to E-bay serves a lot of purposes. It increases awareness, it increases the number BTC circulated, it increases liquidity options, it increases the number of people holding BTC, and likely there are some other "increases" that I am forgetting at the moment...  |
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Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.
This is by no means average. $30k is well under the average income that most people in the US have. Unfortunately most people also have debt so this would also not be "average" You need to add how old you are. It would take a lot more money to retire if you are 30 then if you are 70 as your money would need to last a lot longer. If you want your money to last forever then you would need enough to purchase an immediate annuity that pays "forever"; I would say that the long term expected rate of return for conservative investments would be no more then 5% so you would need $6 million $600K to get $30k every year forever, however this would not be in today's dollars but rather a fixed amount. You would need to say what you expect the long term inflation rate would be in order to accurately calculate how much you would need to keep your draws indexed to inflation. FTFY Thanks for that correction Wary...... I do think that if a person wants to protect for lower purchasing power of the dollar in the coming years, then will need to add an extra amount upon the withdrawal amount - such as 3-5% per year (let's say 4% for the purpose of argument). Therefore, in 6 years, would have needed 4% extra per year, just to maintain $30k purchasing power in today's dollars. Assuming a 4% inflation rate: Savings year 1 (2015) = $30k = $31,200 Savings year 2 (2016) = $30k = $32,448 Savings year 3 (2017) = $30k = $33,746 Savings year 4 (2018) = $30k = $35,906 Savings year 5 (2019) = $30k = $36,500 Savings year 6 (2020) = $30k = $37,959 Continuing to assume a 4% inflation rate: Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = $30k = $39,478 Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = $30k = $41,057 Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = $30k = $42,699 Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = $30k = $44,407 Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = $30k = $46,184 Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = $30k = $48,031 Maybe we can assume that BTC will appreciate in value, greater than the amount that the dollar depreciates in value; however, by 2021, we would need $39,478 per year just to start out... which would imply that in 2020, we would need approximately a $789,560 dollar equivalent value in our BTC portfolio (assuming a 5% withdrawal rate) to accomplish an adequate $30k in today's dollars withdrawal rate per annual. Of course, if we have a known or anticipated period of time that we know that we are going to live or that we are going to be withdrawing from those funds (such as 10 years or 20 years), then we can draw into the principle during that period which would reduce the amount that we would need to have accumulated in order to sustain the same level of income off of the accumulated funds. Difficult, but NOT impossible, to project these kinds of things... We may be wrong about how many years we actually live, but we could still project a number of years that we would like to be able to anticipate drawing upon the accumulated funds.... and in this regard, in my thinking it is frequently better to overproject rather than to underproject... so we would have a bit of a cushion, just in case all the variables to NOT play out, as we had projected. |
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I agree with you about the well written aspect..... and I will add that I believe that the ODDs of this story being true is likely less than one in a thousand. |
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As if holding fiat stalls economic growth. As if fiat is not designed to steal from the uneducated who don't know what else to hold than fiat.
It's not that difficult to protect yourself from about 3% inflation. If one can't manage that they are doing it all wrong. For the average person it is a lot safer and easier to protect yourself from about 3% inflation (at least in Western countries) than to speculate in something crazy like bitcoin. What's a better investment? |
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Haven´t you all read the newspaper article where GABI stated that they are buying on HUOBI right now? Someone posted it in here yesterday!
For some reason your pumping isnt nearly as effective as your trolling. I know, it´s also only 10% the fun of bearish FUD trolling. I think i´m not really good at it, i´m probably not designed to spread positive energy.  Yeah..... your innate talents seem to be in shit-stirring. |
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I've sold because it looks very similar...  I might have bought your coins, because it looks very similar.... Thanks!  Agree!!!!! Seems more like a time to be buying or hodling rather than selling. Some of you guys who are selling are taking a pretty high risk that you are going to be squeezed when the train leaves. I cannot see $520 in the near future; however, I do see a possibility of $560 as a retest.... |
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For those who are unfamiliar with technical analysis, the pattern that has developed over the last 5 hours (on OkCoin, 1minute chart) is called "Funnel With Right Inverted Notch, Half Of A Pasta Roller, Teaspoon Without Handle And Hand With Fingers Chopped Off By The Food Processor." It means that the wonton soup did not go down well and the price may surprise everybody, e.g. by failing to surprise.
NOW ur talking!!!! |
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Oh and please save the "I used credit card and pay it off right away just to earn cash back/points" speech. If you actually do, you're one of a handful. Hence the billions of dollars in profits from those who don't.
That is the ONLY smart way to use credit cards, and a larger number of people do this than you give credit.... The credit card companies profit enormously from the small percentage of people who do NOT pay off their credit cards every month. There is so much profit in the smaller number that they can afford the rest... also, they charge the extra cost on the merchant side in order that the consumer really does NOT see or consciously consider the extreme quantity of profits that credit card companies are raking in. |
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http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/ One of the most annoying things about Bitcoin is that it’s so convenient to make payments with it that sometimes it is extremely tempting to spend it and avoid the hassle of using dollars. One of the ways to help deal with the temptation to spend is to demand a Bitcoin discount at any store that accepts Bitcoin. This is perfectly reasonable because not only is the store lowering its own costs by using Bitcoin, but it is asking me to give up an inherently superior commodity.
Hoarders are more important than merchants. If a restaurant downtown starts accepting bitcoins, this does not necessarily create an incentive for anybody to buy more bitcoins. Why would anyone bother if they can still just use a credit card? If you can convince a merchant to accept bitcoins and stop accepting dollars, then I’ll be impressed.
Unless a merchant is offering something that cannot be bought for dollars, or at least offering a discount, he is only benefiting Bitcoin to the extent that he encourages more hoarding. If he immediately converts the bitcoins he receives as payment into dollars, and if his customers only buy bitcoins so as to spend them at his shop shortly thereafter, then neither has much direct effect on Bitcoin’s demand. The real hero is the hoarder behind the scenes who buys from the merchant and enables him to convert his payments into dollars. Not to change the topic of the post. But I think the main problem with bitcoin mass adoption is there are no guarantees against the owner in cases of theft and mis use. The reason why credit costs more for merchants is because the interbanks get paid most of the interchange fees (interest and transaction fees) and the credit procesors Visa, amex, mc get paid the association fees. But the banks cover most of the costs in case of fraud and stolen cards and accounts and most customers are not liable if the transactions are abided by the rules of the credit card companies. They know this happens alot and to keep commerce moving with more sales this is a built in "expense". With btc if consumers have their wallets hacked or stolen easily the btc is pretty much gone and it will detract from mass adoption because there is no recourse for refunds. And this will mean less people use it, and less incentive for merchants to adopt it, even though it is good saving for them versus credit card transaction costs. This isn't an inherent problem with btc itself, it's more a function of a new market without sophisticated financial institutions that will protect the consumer against fraud and theft. The New York regulations make it all the more likely that those institutions will be created. Whether the problem is inherent to BTC or NOT, as Samsonn25 mentioned, there can be considerable trepidation when individuals realize that they are bearing the costs of fraud or theft, rather than banks.... accordingly, cause a calculation NOT to want to retain value in BTC..... Accordingly, I have considerable doubts that governmental regulations are going to truly protect individual bitcoin holders, at least NOT in the beginning.... Concedingly, there needs to develop various mechanisms to protect BTC holders from fraud, stealing and mistakes..... in order to increase their incentives to buy into the BTC infrastructure and to hold assets in BTC and to use BTC. |
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Equals a mystery? Are they related, and that is the mystery? It would be big news if such a mainstream payment system were to include bitcoin... Do you believe that they are related, Ivanhoe? or are you merely attempting to be especially optimistic regarding bitcoin's future? |
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Not really leveling expectations as much as commenting on it from a consumer standpoint. Why spend BTC and buy it back, when I can get cash back for using my credit card?
You don't ask such questions on this forum Stop spreading FUD, Jorge. There is NO problem raising legitimate questions about how a person may be personally advantaged in spending money in each system. Certainly, the IRS tax guidance puts some damper for BTC holders to spend their BTC like currency, and my solution to NOT report any of my BTC spending is to buy back BTC soon within the time that I am spending it. Surely, there may be reasons that a person would rather use a credit card over BTC... especially when tax incentives have been structured in such a way to discourage individuals from treating BTC as a currency. |
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While i won't buy too much, I think ill be buying a little here and there. I use my coin on coinbase for spending purposes, then i buy back what I just spent. I think everyone should do that. Use expedia for hotels (that will be expanding) and overstock, and all others that take bitcoin. If you don't want to part with your coin, do what Im doing. Just replace it, coinbase has an automated feature for this.. quite cool.
Do they offer any discounts for using BTC? Just wondering. I can get cash back rewards for using my credit card to pay for that type of thing. Not that I don't want to support BTC (though I'm not sure spending via Coinbase supports BTC or not).... I agree we should be using bitcoin as much as possible and auto buying back. That also helps stabilize the price of bitcoin as well if everyone is buying back what they spend. As far as specifically asking for discounts because we are using bitcoin is a little unfair if you ask me. We want more mainstream use of bitcoin and asking retailers for discounts (at least in the states) is a little off putting. If they choose to offer great, however we should no expect it. Just my two cents. Nightowlace: I agree with your general concept of buying back BTC when spending it; however, I remain fairly skeptical about utilizing any auto buy-back system. NONETHELESS, I would advise that investors, attempt to buy back soon before or after a purchase (hopefully within about the same week of the purchase, unless you are pretty confident about some major impending BTC price move that you want to use to your advantage). |
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1 btc is decent investment. Rest assured that he owns 1/20M of total wealth some day in the future.
1/21M of total money supply, not wealth. In either event, an investor should NOT place all of his investment in one basket - eg investing 1btc in BTC... and dollar cost averaging is a much better way to shore up your bet(s)... whether you are betting on BTC or some other assets... you would bet what you can afford in any of the areas that you deem are probable good bets... and/or stable bets.. maybe a little of your assets in each class of assets.. and at this time, 1BTC seems to be way too little for most purposes... unless there remains a lot of luck.. |
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i almost feel like selling virtex is a good 10$ higher than it normally would be, very unusual
You´re gonna end like BillieJoeAllen! Yeah.... whatever happened to that poster? He was here all of the time, and then Wheewwft, Gone.... He said that he was ONLY trading a small percentage of his total BTC holdings... something like less than 10% In reality he probably went short max leveraged with 100% of his holdings @430$ In other words, a guy in this forum was lying to us.... ? HM?  |
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i almost feel like selling virtex is a good 10$ higher than it normally would be, very unusual
You´re gonna end like BillieJoeAllen! Yeah.... whatever happened to that poster? He was here all of the time, and then Wheewwft, Gone.... He said that he was ONLY trading a small percentage of his total BTC holdings... something like less than 10% |
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Soon: Torero = Shorters /// Bull = BTC Bulls?  Naahh just kidding I don't know what will happen  That looks like Fonzie getting the bullhorn. |
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Awww, dammit I was really hoping we could push through $600 with this train. It seems to be stopping at $595... come on!!! Let's see what the MACDs are saying...
WOW... I just noticed that last week's MACD closed green; however, this week's MACD is currently red. We still have a whole week; however, it seems that by Sunday BTC prices need to be more than $595 - otherwise, we are back in the weekly MACD redzone. |
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shit i only got 0.1BTC bid filled.
i need way more...
if someone could dump +1K coins that would be gr8 thanks
"Way more" = 1.9btc? |
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So, I was wondering if the Jersey Island Bitcoin fund, GABI, has a certain time of day for settlement of orders? It seemed that there were some large purchases of coins made at the end of their work day on Friday! If this is the case, then perhaps today we will see the same thing in a few hours? (or at the end of each work day from this point) I am hoping! I was thinking the same. They said they would take in orders during august and start buying in september, there was a lot of interest, even from small private banks worth a couple of billion, the smallest parties wich showed interest were willing to buy in the 5-10$ million range. I only read that they will begin "trading" in September. So this could be an accumulation time frame before the coins can be sold. I wish that GABI was a little more transparent about what they are doing. I don't like speculating this much.  It does NOT seem to be too much in the interest of GABI to be transparent about their acquisition of BTC strategy - unless they have already acquired their holdings, which it seems from their already made disclosures that they had NOT acquired their holdings, as of a couple of weeks ago. |
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