I don't understand what I'm seeing then...  OK. I was thinking of the significance of round numbers on a market cap chart. People do place a lot of long-term orders at prices like $30 etc, but not when the cap approaches $300m etc. As it happens, all the s/r levels you have highlighted is sound and perhaps BTC is an unusual instrument because the issuance is an arithmetic progression at fixed time intervals. I don't believe anything else works like that. So this market cap chart certainly can't be ignored for s/r. |
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hahaha, and number 111 is very binary too!
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thefiniteidea, sorry , but I consider the "market cap" to be an artifact or epi-phenomenon of price. Not offering any real support/resistance.
naima53, impressive technical analysis, but sometimes a step back is needed.
Look at the four-hour chart, it is like Table Mountain. How often does a massive bull run end in a table-top formation? Never?
The market is consolidating, but also coiling like a spring, all the moving averages are converging. It is the weekend so perhaps no major action until Monday. A spike up is coming, and it may be the start of another leg, or the final top before exhaustion is reached.
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Anyone who reads this forum now should be holding at least 100 BTC as it just may be worth $1000s per BTC within 10 years time (probably less). Risking a mere $2,700 now, for what could be worth either zero or a $million in the future is a good move. Any BTC gained by mining or smart trading is a bonus. To read this forum in 2013 and remain a detached observer, with no holding, could easily mean future years of kicking yourself as you stack WalMart shelves when you should be retired. Yes, some people still have 100k BTC but as each day passes the big holdings are slowly decreasing as the earliest adopters take profits while the BTC price climbs. https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year |
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In my opinion, bubbles are not only natural in human history(Yes they occurred under a gold standard as well, though to a much lesser extreme), but also beneficial in the case of Bitcoin.
Because of the distribution model of Bitcoin, early adopters/miners of Bitcoin in 2009-early 2011 obtained a majority of the coins without having much use for them at that time. The first bubble was the only way to make them redistribute it either because of greed(on the way up) or fear(on the way down). I would never have been able to buy some coins in the single digits if the first bubble did not pop.
Without distribution of coins to a larger base, the price cannot reach stability. The more hands that hold Bitcoins, the lower the volatility will become. And the fear phase during bubble popping is the best time for large holders to redistribute
+1 That is a truly important observation. |
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Are there still US dollars available during the weekend? Yes, 3.49M USD on the bid orderbook, a all-time-high level. (some of them could be fake order, of course) That's enough to take us to $100 and above! Alternatively, you could raid this, but getting it to gox might take some time. Now, if it was a bitcoin paper-wallet...  |
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misterbigg, we learned (in the max block size thread) that Gavin has introduced a temporary 250kb limit to see how the miners, and the network, behave when bumping against a block size limit in order to acquire real-world metrics. These metrics can be used when deciding how to overcome the 1MB limit by replacing it with an algorithm. ... Right now, miners that use the reference implementation and don't change any settings will produce blocks no larger than 250Kbytes big.
So we're finding out right now how miners collectively react to bumping up against a block size limit. I'd like to let that experiment run for at least a few months before arguing that we do or do not need to eliminate the 1MB hard limit, and start arguing about what the default rules for acceptable block size should be.
I think it is encouraging that miners are happy to use default settings, and not ignore zero-fee transactions. This helps bitcoin gain traction by appealing to new users who might not want to pay transaction fees initially, but may well pay for later transactions after seeing how good bitcoin is as a currency. |
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Incredible to say the least. Silver as money is as old as civilization.
This is exactly what has me so amazed about bitcoin. It has bootstrapped itself from zero value 4.1 years ago to a serious rival for precious metals on its own merits. Sure it has been volatile, but overall, this achievement for a new paradigm and new technology is astounding. |
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Bitcoin nearly reached parity with the silver oz during its bubble in 2011 (peaking at $32 when silver was at $34).
Now, in Feb 2013, it is likely to achieve that milestone. If the fundamentals remain strong it will stay there.
Any of the millions of precious metal enthusiasts who have put their savings into silver should be considering that a percentage of it would be better invested elsewhere!
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Meh. Well February is a shortened month so that's a scant 14 days to pick up another 17%. Seems like a coin toss at this point, I'd not bet either way, but good luck.
Well, ironically, the price swing was 17% yesterday! Expect this bull-run to end in a humongous spike. I expect it will be enough to get the sellers at $32.002  |
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 Here is a slightly more updated technology adoption chart. It makes the point that newer technologies have a faster mass adoption phase. Bticoin is the newest of all. Even nanotechnology has an earlier beginning. |
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But what will happen to the random guy that invested more than he can lose @ 20$? That person will learn a valuable, albeit painful, lesson and hopefully will not repeat that mistake in the future. How many people spend $20 on cigarettes, or a horse race, or a bottle of whiskey? All these are more of a "mistake" than an investment with a possibility/probability of making a profit. You can't be worried about other people's decisions. |
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When we pass all time high, this will be just a new excuse for bored journalists to write bitcoin articles.
I'm ok with that The old bitcoin high is of interest to the crypto-community. It is surpassing the silver price which will make headlines and really get the PM bugs looking at this new "virtual gold". I like that too. Then 1 BTC passing the 1 oz gold price. xxjs, if/when that happens then BTC will be the no.1 thing being talked about everywhere! It will be zero-hour for lift-off! |
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When we pass all time high, this will be just a new excuse for bored journalists to write bitcoin articles.
I'm ok with that The old bitcoin high is of interest to the crypto-community. It is surpassing the silver price which will make headlines and really get the PM bugs looking at this new "virtual gold". |
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where's the pic of Adam chasing the train?  Makes me laugh too :-) |
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A market where everyone thinks that he is gonna be rich in the next few years cannot work.
It made sense for me to invest in the past when I felt alone in this tough, but now, now everyone went mad.
My question is what were you looking for? You must have been following and supporting bitcoin for some time. Now, it is getting real traction outside the crypto-community, so surely this is good? An internet-based alternative to inflated and debased fiat is finally becoming available to all. That is a worthy goal in itself. The market is separate from this goal, and of course it will go up long-term, unless a mathematical flaw is found in SHA-256 or some such setback. If you are not interested in either then what were you looking for in bitcoin in the first place? |
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Wow! We are NOWHERE NEAR the top of this bull run.
I have watched and traded commodities futures markets for several years and have never seen a new high posted straight after such a massive sell-off, let alone one that ripped the price down 15%!
All that has happened today is that several big holders of bitcoin called a top at $26 and took their profits. Turns out that they burned their coins too soon. The main trend is intact.
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My guess: dead cat bounce to approx. $23.7, then further drop to 20-21$, then stabilization at somewhat higher level.
The bounce is already over $25. Incredible! Crude Oil and Gold futures can dip and bounce similarly, but a much smaller percentage, and usually take many hours or even a whole day to come back. The retraces seen in bitcoin are something else entirely! |
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