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28621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2014, 08:24:57 AM
So guys, 27th June.. we learn that the coins sold well above market, we should see a price to $650+ within hours after confirmation? And, on the other side (well below market) we should see a drop to $545 or less within hours after confirmation.

But what about the case where we dont know the results? Down? Up? We all know this market never responds to nothing by doing nothing.

I'm sure that several of the various winners are going to want to inform people about the price that they paid.  I doubt that they would be restricted from such publicity, after they have won.
28622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:57:33 PM
I've been here for quite some time and I agree with Shroomskit.  You can lay claim to keeping "[your] mind agile and free from cultist's poisonous thoughts" but your actions speak otherwise.

At times I feel compelled to start a vote to have you replaced as mod of this subforum, but to be honest, I just don't care enough.  Maybe someday.

Perhaps you can arrange for a 'virtual book burning', whereby all Blitz's posts are dragged and dropped onto a graphical bonfire, before you virtually burn his avatar, alive!?

GREAT IDEA!!!!!!!!     +1  for that!     



ON another NOTE, it appears that if the weekly MACD on bitstamp closes below $575, then it will be red... and it is about to close, soon.. and it is barely below $575, as I type.
28623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:26:43 PM
Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.



THEY say don't quote the troll; however, it seems really strange to have a supposed moderator spreading such FUD (from March 2014).  Blitz   - you keep posting links to that bullshit FUD article... over and over and over... And your frequent posting of such FUD article does NOT cause the article to become true, when the article is in fact a bunch of bullshit.

I've never seen such a clown of a moderator on any board. He sounds butthurt to me.

Yes, it seems strange and puzzling to have such a supposed moderator with such baggage and obsession with spreading disinformation.
28624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:16:40 PM

Maybe I do NOT understand graphs and charts, sufficiently, but I do NOT see where in that information there is an indication of 80k new bitcoin users per day?

28625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:12:25 PM
Wow!!!!   From where do you get your statistics? 
Perhaps new addresses, from blockchain.info?

Perhaps, NOT... why did you snip my text? 

Most of us should realize that  wallet address on blockchain.info do NOT necessarily reflect people...   If we were getting 80k new bitcoin users per day, then that would be about 29million new users a year, and we are lucky to have 7 million users in total, at the moment.  In other words, we need some better explanation about why anyone would assert that there are anywhere near 80k new users on any given day or in any given month for that matter.  A month is more possible, but I would still like to understand the source for such info.
28626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:06:51 PM
Finally I have found this article embodied in a gif.




THEY say don't quote the troll; however, it seems really strange to have a supposed moderator spreading such FUD (from March 2014).  Blitz   - you keep posting links to that bullshit FUD article... over and over and over... And your frequent posting of such FUD article does NOT cause the article to become true, when the article is in fact a bunch of bullshit.
28627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 11:02:39 PM
Time for a dip?

monkey says intraday, up for an hour, daily, down all week.
monkey still loves silver.
monkey goes long usdjpy intraday.
monkey says vix down, spx up overnight, a little, then down more tomorrow.
monkey says long bond up on a daily basis
it's a monkey-pocalypse.



EDIT: monkey says bottom on 3 minute chart will be 18:35 US Eastern time, or else this is going down very hard indeed.


My lil' doggie can sense fear in the monkey.
28628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 10:45:34 PM
If I were going to place a bid on a blind auction to buy bitcoins, and the auction was going to be closed in a couple days, I would put a bid in at $541.00 or $551.00.  There seems to be good technical support at those areas and I would feel like there would be a good risk/reward ratio.  I'd feel like I'd be able to make some money on a trade (eventually) and/or it would be a good price for a long term hold as well.  If I didn't win I wouldn't be too disappointed.  If I did win, I'd feel pretty certain I'd be able to do well either trading out or holding.  Remember, I'd have to take out $200K out of money for the deposit that was otherwise working for me elsewhere, and the time-cost involved for the auction.  

Where would you place your blind bid today for any amount of bitcoin?

Nick

It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.

Windjc is on the right track.  If you have enough money, then you may stagger your bids to make up to 10 bids between 80% of market rate to 135% of market rate, and you still may or may NOT win very many lots.  If you only have enough to bid on one lot and you want to win the coins, then you will likely need to go at least 115% of market rate in order to have a decent chance of winning one lot.
28629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 09:42:13 PM
Dont miss the hole point , every day 80.000 people start to use btc. A network worth growts exponentially when you add more users. Hold your coins and buy some tagged btc to the fbi


Wow!!!!   From where do you get your statistics? 

Maybe every month we get 80k new users (and even that may be a stretch), but every day, I doubt it.

I believe that there is considerable difficulties in measuring exactly how many people are using or holding BTC and the extent to which BTC are distributed among the holders/users and the quantity of BTC that the holders/users control.
28630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 10:00:44 AM
My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.



Really?  The close of the Weekly MACD candle is only about two days from now, and BTC prices in the last about 24 hours have been floating between $580 and $600, and as I type at $586.

It does NOT seem that it would be too difficult to keep the price below $582-ish... I am NOT sure about the exact number to keep the candle red.  Now, I agree that next week would be another story, though.... but this week seems totally manipulable.  and doable and I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.

but why would anyone even WANT to do that?

also, the candle of the past week at huobi and bitfinex were already green, so bitstamp is already lagging a week behind on the MACD. And even that it pretty late considering it could easily have turned green 2  weeks ago, but missed it by a hair due to a sudden mini-panic or whatever the hell happened two weeks ago.



You may be correct that I am giving too much importance to whether someone would want the candle to be red or green.
28631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: June 24, 2014, 07:55:13 AM

The trend looks very balanced, without doubt we are having a break of one or two weeks


The exact numbers at this particular moment have the potential to look much different from the numbers on June 27, so I would NOT judge any likelihood to win exactly on what numbers are 3 days beforehand.  I could be wrong... but if I recall correctly there is some kind of event that will be occurring on 6/26.. that could possibly maybe have an outlier affect on prices on 6/27.  HM Huh
28632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 24, 2014, 12:06:59 AM
My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.
My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.
Really? ...I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.
Getting the polarity right is often important.  I said you could not prevent it (the red candle).  If I was trying to paint the candle red, my strategy would be to relax in my barcalounger with a pisco sour and la mystere de la voix bulgares on the stereo, reading a light work of latin magical realism.


You seem so certain, and for me, few things in the BTC world seem to be very certain... even though I am betting upon its long-term success.

I mean I get a sense that the current weekly MACD has been green all week, and there has been somewhat of a struggle to keep BTC prices down to a place where red weekly MACD remains reachable.    However, NEXT week seems like it would be much more difficult to keep from turning green. 

So, if I were a betting man and if I had some confidence, I would wager that we would get a red MACD for this week and green MACD for next week, yet my confidence remains so low that I would NOT bet very much.... possibly .01BTC some similarly smaller token amount.... and even if someone were to call me on the bet, I may fold and say I am NOT sufficiently confident about my prediction.
28633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 11:20:19 PM
yes, who'd have thought?! Using naked girls to draw attention to your product! You learn something new every day.

NOT quite naked.



I still have to use my imagination.   Sad    Angry
28634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 11:16:48 PM
..............................  [    -    shortened -  ]................

That is true Smiley I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know....  Cheesy

I believe it's Sunday, but any choice is arbitrary. It should be TSD (Trailing-Seven-Days) anyway.

I think the weekly MACD on Bitstamp closes at around midnight UT on Wednesdays.  You will see a new candle form at that time.  I have been approximating the candle for Wednesday, and if BTC prices close above about $582 on Wednesday, then the weekly candle will be green, and if it closes below about $582, it will be red..   My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

I am NOT sure what you mean by TSD - b/c surely each new candle allows for the BTC price to close lower and then to turn green, so next Wednesday, the BTC price will have to be below $560 or something like that in order to remain red.... either way, the MACD weekly is surely on the cusp of turning green... and it could float in this limbo land for a little bit before actually going fully and unambiguously green.


Just calculate the candles in a rolling fashion. As in: the last candle always closes right now. Never any open candles anymore and continuous insight.


Well, NOW that makes sense..... Tongue  Roll Eyes  Shocked  I must just be dumb.   Cheesy Grin Smiley Wink  Embarrassed   and filled with emotions, as you may be able to tell?   Cry
28635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 11:13:49 PM
My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

My theory is that you could not prevent it if you tried.



Really?  The close of the Weekly MACD candle is only about two days from now, and BTC prices in the last about 24 hours have been floating between $580 and $600, and as I type at $586.

It does NOT seem that it would be too difficult to keep the price below $582-ish... I am NOT sure about the exact number to keep the candle red.  Now, I agree that next week would be another story, though.... but this week seems totally manipulable.  and doable and I think that there is going to be a pretty vigorous attempt at such.. to keep the candle red.
28636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 09:56:59 PM
..............................  [    -    shortened -  ]................

That is true Smiley I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know....  Cheesy

I believe it's Sunday, but any choice is arbitrary. It should be TSD (Trailing-Seven-Days) anyway.

I think the weekly MACD on Bitstamp closes at around midnight UT on Wednesdays.  You will see a new candle form at that time.  I have been approximating the candle for Wednesday, and if BTC prices close above about $582 on Wednesday, then the weekly candle will be green, and if it closes below about $582, it will be red..   My theory is that there is going to be an attempt to keep prices below $582 by the end of the weekly candle.

I am NOT sure what you mean by TSD - b/c surely each new candle allows for the BTC price to close lower and then to turn green, so next Wednesday, the BTC price will have to be below $560 or something like that in order to remain red.... either way, the MACD weekly is surely on the cusp of turning green... and it could float in this limbo land for a little bit before actually going fully and unambiguously green.
28637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 09:32:41 PM

Possibly Tera means that there is finally a green 1wk macd candle on Bitstamp. It was sort of confirmed with high volume. It is barely lit  Smiley It could be positive if we are dealing with macd obsessed whale Smiley Long time ago I remember Tera said that a green 1 wk macd could indicate that it is a good time to buy (or maybe build on a position?). I can't tell if that was a joke or not. Tera likes to be a bit cryptic sometimes.

The best oracles are that way Smiley. Although 1w MACD on Bitstamp not confirmed yet, just one green candle, which can still change. Their weeks ends Wed, iirc

That is true Smiley I did not know that the weekly candles close on Wednesdays.

NOW, you know....  Cheesy
28638  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 08:27:13 PM
Yes. Because the sheep need something to panic about. If it wasn't this auction they'd find something else. 
It's a minor event but it completely controls the price at the
Moment. Traders are idiots.
Probably on the day of the auction the idiots will start selling because people might start selling. The news has to be really damn good for the price to go up.
Anything not extremely bullish and the traders will totally completely fucking panic and sell.
When we recover a week later they'll find the next event to panic about.

More and more I get the impression, that you are a bot. A posting-bot! An algorithm loaded with a few constants like sheep, panic, ignore, traders, idiots...

...fullfilling these constants with random words to sentences.

Maybe someone could find a shutdown sequence for this amok running algorithm?


That is so funny!!  He does kind of interact as if he were a bird-dog bot...   And he sticks to these various themes as you indicated... Yet,  I personally DONT think shroomy is a bot... Nonetheless, I'm sure that bots have gotten more and more sophisticated over the years.
28639  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 08:19:17 PM
no i'm buying now.

Why buy now?

What happens if Bitcoin breaks below the longterm Jan 2013 support trendline on strong volume?

Also, you always seem to be buying. Never selling. Where do you get the fiat from?



MatTheCat:  The bolded part of your above statement is somewhat funny.. I was beginning to think the same about ADam.. that with him it is just buy, buy, buy and HODL, HODL, HODL... but he has made some sell, sell, sell statements, from time to time - though you never know for sure whether he is joking.


Your statement about Getting fiat is interesting too.  Unless, you are  very young, the longer you have been around the block, the more likely it is that you have more and more items that are invested in fiat and income streams around such fiat systems.  I have always had a considerable portion of my income dedicated to reinvesting with hopes that the reinvested money is earning interest and compounding over the years. 

Certainly, I could have been better about my various investments and even if I had found out about bitcoin earlier, that would have been better, but I tend to live well within my means and to invest in "safe" things, such as index funds.  With that I have built up a pretty decent cushion of fiat centric investments over the years.

Ever since I learned about the intricacies of BTC (only since November), I have been reconsidering my overall investment distributions. 

In recent times, also, I have been considering whether it would be feasible and/or reasonable to remove some of my fiat from my various more liquid investments, such as stock investments and to put that money into BTC.   Other investments that I have are NOT very liquid.  However, if I took some of my liquid investments, that would definitely multiply my BTC holdings - however, then the proportion of my investment into BTC would be really skewed towards BTC - and probably a lot more volatile and risky.

I tend to believe that when the BTC prices go skyrocketing upward, I will likely be saying to myself, "I should have.... ", yet one of the downsides of diversified and safer investing strategies is to NOT have all of one's eggs in one kind of basket... even though, frequently, there will be second and third thoughts about such strategies after the fact (Monday morning quarterbacking).
28640  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2014, 04:11:31 PM
All I know is buying more back in the 330's looks so good right now Cheesy

I think that it would look good only if you were just beginning to invest in BTC or that you had recently sold your BTC investment to buy in at a lower price.  Otherwise $330s would be seriously problematic for BTC and would delay what seems to be our upcoming, pending and seemingly imminent choo choo.
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