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2881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 21, 2013, 03:40:11 PM
ok for you: This situation is most profitable for operators of bots or automated trading systems using the mtgox api to spoon feed the traders on both ends.

Sorry I don't understand. It's just sell-low and buy-high? How could it be profitable?
2882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Avalon asics shipping right now (?)... short term price effects? on: January 21, 2013, 03:05:27 PM
I believe the ASICs is bought by bullish people, and the operational cost isn't high. I don't see why they will sell their BTC immediately.

The idea is that more BTC will be mined then usual in from the moment ASICs hit till first difficulty adjustment. Then those people would wanna be first to the market to offset their costs and also to be first before those who got theirs later will dump and thus bring the price down.

Just let them dump. In a bull run like this dumping 3600BTC/day is just nothing

While pre-ordering Avalon might be their smartest investment ever, dumping the bitcoins mined by Avalon will be their stupidest investment ever.
2883  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much would it cost to drive BTC to $100? on: January 21, 2013, 03:02:07 PM
There are currently 65614.1 Bitcoins for sale on MtGox priced under $100. If you place an immediate order to buy all the Bitcoins available on MtGox priced below $100, and then bought .1 BTC of the $100 Bitcoins, the "last trading price" would be $100. The amount of money this would currently take is $1,087,817.82. Since you would be buying almost all the Bitcoins currently for sale in this exchange, you could maintain the $100 price cheaply, at least for the hour it would take other sellers to send more Bitcoins in.

You can do the same thing on a low volume exchange for much cheaper.

edit: it looks like MtGox doesn't correctly calculate the true price to buy xxxx BTC; the answer is currently $1,695,122 USD to buy to $100.



So you really have $1.3M in Gox?Huh I wonder what would happen if you simply click "BUY BITCOINS".........

By the way, this:
Quote
Since you would be buying almost all the Bitcoins currently for sale in this exchange, you could maintain the $100 price cheaply
is wrong, because you never know how many bitcoins are sitting on gox but not on the order book
2884  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Address 14DumMEnKYtebNWJjf1VhPmxCYeBbT2V3n ? on: January 20, 2013, 06:07:34 PM
Ah, thank you. I suspected that but wasn't sure since I had used the address for various other things too. I also was not notified about it by email.

Always use different address for a different purpose
2885  Other / Off-topic / Re: I'd like to ask for some help. on: January 20, 2013, 04:23:48 PM
Just disappear if you do not have the ability to pay you debt (even if you have the intention to do so). Some Private-victims did incur extra loss due to your bet, and some may be still struggling to pay their debt in real life. You are bringing force hope to these people and going to hurt them once again. (Just imagine if private comes back and ask for "help" like you.....)

Did you type that out on an iPhone?  Grin

Typo? fixed  Smiley
2886  Other / Off-topic / Re: I'd like to ask for some help. on: January 20, 2013, 01:18:31 PM
Just disappear if you do not have the ability to pay you debt (even if you have the intention to do so). Some Private-victims did incur extra loss due to your bet, and some may be still struggling to pay their debt in real life. You are bringing false hope to these people and going to hurt them once again. (Just imagine if private comes back and ask for "help" like you.....)
2887  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: so.. why do verification's have to occur exclusively in blocks? on: January 20, 2013, 06:03:42 AM
I was thinking... Why is a block being found the ONLY way a transaction can be verified?


Why cant a message just be sent out to the nodes/clients with a simple query of "hey... so it is cool if address X sends Y BTC to address Z... would you approve that in a future block?"

Randomly pick a dozen or so nodes to send it to and if all responses come back affirmative at least then there is substantially greater evidence of the transaction being legit verses completely unsafe.

MAkes sense to me at least.. but i'm not to intimately familiar with the technical side of transaction verification.

Thanks!

It works if:

1. A miner (or a group of miners) controls >50% total network hashing power;

2. This miner (or group) is honest (it always includes transactions in a future block as promised); and

3. This miner (or group) always rejects any block containing conflicting transactions
2888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here is why "The chart includes all fundamentals already" is wrong. on: January 19, 2013, 04:53:06 PM
I concede your point.  Grin

thanks Smiley

I understand the effect of Mega, but why Avalon shipping = rally?

Because if they ship it statistically would increase the chances that the others ship too, although not directly influence it. And the health of the mining industry is a significant factor.
I wouldn't call creeping up to the 20s a rally. (This term is largely misused by the dramatization here when I say rally I mean new ATHs)

The effect of ASIC is unknown because there are too many possibilities. You only consider the best scenerio.
2889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here is why "The chart includes all fundamentals already" is wrong. on: January 19, 2013, 04:24:08 PM
There are two strong fundamentals coming up imo:

  • Mega accepting BTC or not accepting BTC
  • Avalon shipping during the promised timeframe or not.

Both are discrete events which can only have one possible outcome (true or false) they cannot be predicted with reasonable accuracy.
  • Should Mega accept BTC and Avalon ship we are going to rally.
  • If one of em turns out to be true and the other not we are going to creep to the 20s.
  • However if both of them turn out to be false we are going to grind down.

These predictions cannot be made using technical analysis.

I understand the effect of Mega, but why Avalon shipping = rally?
2890  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin.org and weusecoins.com in other languages on: January 19, 2013, 04:19:31 PM
So chinese dont have google translator? A shame..

Google translation may become acceptable 20 years later, but definitely not at this moment.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5-JtnlhAI9s/SvGOFWxxxFI/AAAAAAAAAIM/X9kv9wtehII/s400/fuck+the+certain+price+of+goods.jpg
2891  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: January 19, 2013, 01:36:21 PM
I have a suggestion: in "Backup Individual Keys" and "View Address Keys", please allow the user to choose whether the keys are delimited by spaces. Keys with spaces are not C&P friendly
2892  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [BOUNTY] Armory Bugs: 0.2 BTC each on: January 19, 2013, 01:29:45 PM
I don't know if you consider this as a bug: Armory does not support send to P2SH addresses in both mainnet mode and testnet mode
2893  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin.org and weusecoins.com in other languages on: January 19, 2013, 03:14:54 AM
2 weeks gone and no reply from devs. Who is currently holding the bitcoin.org?
2894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin nearly reaching its highest ever market capitalisation on: January 19, 2013, 03:08:28 AM
http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=13&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

We have reached an all-time-high market cap at 13-day average
2895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin nearly reaching its highest ever market capitalisation on: January 18, 2013, 08:07:00 PM
wait till asic's hit and we get weeks of fast blocks mined

But I thought we were capped at 21 million bitcoins?

Yes but the rate of generation will be increased temporarily because the difficulty is not adjusted in real time
2896  Economy / Speculation / Re: why this rally? on: January 18, 2013, 07:33:01 PM
Recently some people are promoting S.DICE under unrelated topics, which looks quite suspicious to me. Think twice before you jump into this:

1. Anyone with moderate coding skills can copy the SD model easily. It's simply a bot monitoring incoming transactions and creating raw transactions. It won't be surprising if there will be a price war, leading to a huge reduction in profit and increased risks

2. There will be a tx fee increase to deal with SD pollution SD (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130450.0)

3. To buy S.DICE on MPEX you need to pay a ridiculous registration fee of 30BTC, let alone the cumbersome commands. Those "passthroughs" is the most risky part as you would never know whether the assets are really backed by real S.DICE. 
2897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 18, 2013, 02:17:55 PM
I don't know if I'm being sensibly sceptical or whether hanging out in Bitcoinland has made me overly suspicious and cynical but...

Couldn't our 'whale' have just randomly picked an address from here to claim as his/her own in attempt to support his/her username persona as 'loaded'?

Read his sig carefully. It is signed by the private key to that address. If you want to verify it, open a debug window in bitcoin-qt and enter:

Code:
verifymessage 1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjP Hw6QbEy+Z5BNwiv0kPTyizzgU5T1H88RnPRvk7730VoGTReJndKzZ4Jnn1JjIkNiVwBIXsx19RwXQWVfWrZjW+M= "I am 'Loaded' of bitcointalk.org."
Thank you.  Happy to be corrected and to learn something from those who understand these things better than me Smiley

You are welcome. This is one of the new possibilities brought by bitcoin.
2898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 18, 2013, 11:03:11 AM
I don't know if I'm being sensibly sceptical or whether hanging out in Bitcoinland has made me overly suspicious and cynical but...

Couldn't our 'whale' have just randomly picked an address from here to claim as his/her own in attempt to support his/her username persona as 'loaded'?

Read his sig carefully. It is signed by the private key to that address. If you want to verify it, open a debug window in bitcoin-qt and enter:

Code:
verifymessage 1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjP Hw6QbEy+Z5BNwiv0kPTyizzgU5T1H88RnPRvk7730VoGTReJndKzZ4Jnn1JjIkNiVwBIXsx19RwXQWVfWrZjW+M= "I am 'Loaded' of bitcointalk.org."
2899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 18, 2013, 10:23:47 AM
1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjP

Nice.....

can you tell us at what price you got these?

4 pizzas
2900  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Standard Check Numbers (checksums for addresses) on: January 18, 2013, 04:37:50 AM
Am I really the only one who makes detailed comparisons between bitcoin addresses to ensure they are the same?

I guess I must just be paranoid, maybe it's the irreversibility of a bitcoin transaction that scares me.

I usually compare the first few characters, a few characters in the middle, and the last few characters. That should be good enough because the last few characters are actually the checksum that you want (by double SHA256, not CRC).
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