I don't think BETI pattern in 2011 is particularly useful since it was the beginning of the chart and was not very stable. Looking at all previous spikes which went above 0.5, when they came down, they always at least touched 0....
I wonder if that applies to this time round...
Anything can happen, but what I don't get is how two people can look at the same drawn chart and see two opposite things. This is what i see: In 2011, i see a sharp downturn from about 1.28 to 0.8, then upwards to eventually largest peak at around 1.87. So, why a relatively small wiggle (so far) suggests to you that it has to go all the way to zero? It can go to BETI at zero, which would be around 7300, but i don't see 100% probability of this in the chart. My favorite scenario would be something rhyming with the 2011 chart: Down to 8-8.5K, up to 12-13K, down again to 9.5-10K, then upwards to the moon (at or above 1.87, which likely to be 60-70K at that point). This scenario would suggest that in interim both bulls and bears would be exhausted by the rapid turns. |
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It is not possible because the regression parameters change as the price changes |
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Can i see the data somewhere, how many days we were ahead of trend in previous bubbles? this could be an could indicator aswell.
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 BETI is going up vertically, and 1-1.5 seems possible Since the thread was started in Feb 2014, this is the first time that the model is tested in a bubble. In 2015 it has been tested in a deer bear market and worked very well |
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