I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now
I bet you 1 bitcoin that some time during the lifespan of bitcoin the price will rise above the $580 range. If this does not happen in the next 5 years, I give you a bitcoin. Sound fair? Oh and a sell off before July? This consolidation has bear trap written all over it. For a variety of reasons, including how you have structured this bet, NO ONE with any brain would take this bet... maybe if you changed the reward to dollars, then possibly, who would want a bitcoin that may have little value in 5 years. Also, maybe change the amount to $700 or some other more reasonable and higher amount.. $580 is the current floating price, as you know.... within 5 years, many would even bet $1000 or more... as a sure thing in their thinking. |
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There is a timing problem with the 'buy to dump immediately on exchanges' scenario: [ ... ] The buyer has to be cautious with respect to market movement 27th June - 3rd July.
Yes, he must include that forced delay in his estimate of how much money he would get if he got those coins. It is irrelevant for the optimistic bidder, very important for the pessimistic bidder. The delay is does NOT make any difference whether a person is optimistic or pessimistic... but it would likely weed out some short term manipulations. In that respect the delay affects long term versus short term calculations regarding those coins. NONETHELESS, i believe one theory is that many of the bidders would likely already hold a large number of coins - and accordingly, their total investment in bitcoin could be enhanced by any kind of manipulative affect from the coin sales... |
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I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot. And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.
The auction mechanism is clearly described in the USMS note. Each bidder submits one "sealed" bid where he says "I will buy up to N blocks of 3000 BTC for X dollars each, and up to M blocks of 2,656.51306529 for Y dollars each", where N is between 0 and 9, and M is 0 or 1. When the bidding period is over, the USMS "opens" the bids, and awards the blocks of each type to the bidders, by decreasing bid price, until all blocks are awarded. It appears that the USMS will not release any results to the public: http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf It will only tell losing bidders that they lost. But perhaps the terminally curious will file a FOIA request. And they felt it was necessary to write The USMS does not make any representations or warranties regarding Bitcoin. So you will not get a refund if you buy those bitcoins and they turn out to be counterfeited, or half of their bits fall off after the first transaction.  The process seems a little illogical in certain respects, but it seems to clearly communicate what it will be. Additionally, the actual bidding seems to be a little less than transparent, yet I would imagine that they cannot give a lot to anyone who bid lower, b/c the higher bidder would truely complain if s/he did NOT receive a lot and a lower bidder did. |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT.   Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
YES..... You are amazing mmitech... just keep up with your non-responses by merely referring back to earlier non-responses. Seems as if you are having trouble really engaging with the topic... and really the whole point is being lost, anyhow with the passage of time. Let's just check back in 6 months and see whether your decision to cash out half of your BTC was a good one. I really doubt it, but fine, that is what you want to do. I suspect in the mean time, you are probably going to be making various trades though, in order to muddy the waters, and there is NOTHING wrong with engaging in ongoing monitoring of ones holdings and adjusting investment behaviors in order to respond to various changes in the market... (whether expected or NOT). you are so butt hurt really, I will not waste my time with your nonsense... That is your choice regarding whether or NOT you choose to engage. I really have trouble understanding how you come to any conclusion regarding how or why I would be "butt hurt" about anything. I tend to think that you are either lacking in vocabulary or possibly lacking in being able to hold more than one thought in your head at one time regarding potential motivations of others. Accordingly, probably, I should be more kind to you, except, your arrogance brings out a certain level of irritation in me which seems to cause me to be feel less sympathy for you and your situation and your motives and to be less kind towards you than what I would otherwise strive to be. In the end, I hope you will be able to get some value out of our exchange and possibly be able to reflect upon various back and forths that we had, even though they may have been somewhat less than interactive. you are now officially in my ignore list.... you are a pain in the ass, you think that you understand things but your head is totally empty.... don't respond to this because I wont see it and and I dont want to see it, you will remain in my ignore list. For some reason you seem to have a mistaken impression that posts in public threads are soley for you. If posts in public threads were intended to be soley for you, then probably it would be more effective to post them in your PM, but I did NOT post in your PM b/c I had NO desire or inclination to send any PM to you. Well in any event, NOW it appears that we will NOT be communicating any further (NOT that we were previously), so likely there will be NO need for a PM. I am saddened by this development.  NOT..... |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT. Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
YES..... You are amazing mmitech... just keep up with your non-responses by merely referring back to earlier non-responses. Seems as if you are having trouble really engaging with the topic... and really the whole point is being lost, anyhow with the passage of time. Let's just check back in 6 months and see whether your decision to cash out half of your BTC was a good one. I really doubt it, but fine, that is what you want to do. I suspect in the mean time, you are probably going to be making various trades though, in order to muddy the waters, and there is NOTHING wrong with engaging in ongoing monitoring of ones holdings and adjusting investment behaviors in order to respond to various changes in the market... (whether expected or NOT). you are so butt hurt really, I will not waste my time with your nonsense... That is your choice regarding whether or NOT you choose to engage. I really have trouble understanding how you come to any conclusion regarding how or why I would be "butt hurt" about anything. I tend to think that you are either lacking in vocabulary or possibly lacking in being able to hold more than one thought in your head at one time regarding potential motivations of others. Accordingly, probably, I should be more kind to you, except, your arrogance brings out a certain level of irritation in me which seems to cause me to be feel less sympathy for you and your situation and your motives and to be less kind towards you than what I would otherwise strive to be. In the end, I hope you will be able to get some value out of our exchange and possibly be able to reflect upon various back and forths that we had, even though they may have been somewhat less than interactive. |
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I understand your point about early investors also being the ultimate risk takers. However, that wasn't my point, to claim that there is a guaranteed profit. Neither is there one, btw, for the 2nd line of investors in a malicious pyramid scheme.
I'll try to paraphrase to clarify my point: the ultimate goal of Bitcoin as it is widely understood is reaching a capitalization that does not only represent the intrinsic value of the transaction network itself, but represents the global economic output (or a fraction thereof).
To get there, Bitcoin needs to successively reach global acceptance. Any speculative value in excess of the current usage + acceptance level will melt away should it ever become apparent that global acceptance isn't attainable. In that case, the earliest investors will quite likely sit on a healthy profit, while the latest investors might well face a substantial loss.
So far, no different from a stock, right? The difference is what I describe in the 2nd paragraph: stocks only measure the intrinsic value of the company they represent (plus hype, plus some industry wide multiplier perhaps). They don't require a growing user and investor base to hold a price (unless the price was vastly inflated by speculative mania). Bitcoin, from day one of trading, has been understood as a global peer to peer currency -- and its speculative value represented that. Should our little experiment ever fall short of our expectations for good, the price deflation would probably be so vast that at least the last 2 waves of investors would face a loss.
tl;dr Intensionally, you are right: Bitcoin isn't a pyramid. My claim is that extensionally, it is indistinguishable up to the point where it succeeds.
I can't see how even extensionally we can call Bitcoin a pyramid scheme. Just because it needs a growing user base, doesn't mean that those late investors will have more to lose than the early ones. Lets say an investor bought 100 bitcoins last November at $1000, and I buy 100 bitcoins now at $500, who will have more to lose ? Me or the early investor ? The claim that once the user base grows so does the price is false, just take the last 6 months as an example. A pyramid scheme would clearly favour the early investor. Indeed if the price will rise so does the risk of the late investors but thats the nature of a deflationary monetary asset, just like gold, but unlike gold there's no one who sets the price each morning based on their subjective view. I think I understand your point, but I'm not sure you understand mine: I am not claiming Bitcoin as an investment is a malicious pyramid a.k.a. a Ponzie. I am however pointing out that the user base/acceptance growth requirements placed on the market by the huge enthusiasm of the early adopters (i.e. us) and the extremely ambitious goals resemble that of a pyramid: we must grow at an exponential rate, or the experiment will probably fail. Good thing then that, so far, exponential growth in all the key metrics holds. (*)(*) That's not an endorsement of extrapolation from linear regression over log price. I continue to believe that this is way too crude (and imprecise) to be considered a useful predictor of future price for any practical purposes (i.e. trading). I believe that expectations have a considerable amount of variance... and there is a difference between expectations and wishes... Personally, I hope for growth that exceeds the average of my other investments (which is about 6% per year); however, I believe that BTC has a much higher potential (higher than 6% per year), and I could get as high as 10x per year if I am very lucky, but more likely the rate of growth will be much smaller than 10x, and the growth rate will probably taper off somewhat (even though the potential remains to gain considerably). Yes, I could also lose 100% of my investment, and I am taking chances by investing in BTC. NONETHELESS, even though I have NOT placed on paper my calculations for the probabilities for all these various outcomes and weighed them (like what is the likelihood of -100% returns, -50%, 0%, 6%, 25%, 50%, 100%, 1000%, etc) it seems to me that if I were to add up all the possible outcomes and the probabilities, then likely in the end I am expecting much greater than 6% per year returns, and accordingly, BTC remains a pretty decent investment for me. Part of my point here is that I really doubt that it is fair to place every BTC investor into a box b/c each of us is making his/her own calculation concerning why we are into BTC and what risks we are taking and what are our expectations regarding returns... and accordingly, expectations can also differ from rhetoric regarding hopes of returns higher than expectations. |
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Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT. Edited above for clarification(s).
I didn't give any advice or any guidance about any investment, I decided upon my personal beliefs, but only when you insisted about knowing I told you, as far as I am concerned it is still a personal choice that somehow you don't like !!!! so next time you start writing about how my believes and my values and my personal choices doesn't fit your logic or the thread logic you must remember that they involves me and only me and they don't effect your life or the life of anyone except me.... got it ? this is where our freedom of choice comes from and no one should cross the lines. your freedom stops when others freedom starts.
YES..... You are amazing mmitech... just keep up with your non-responses by merely referring back to earlier non-responses. Seems as if you are having trouble really engaging with the topic... and really the whole point is being lost, anyhow with the passage of time. Let's just check back in 6 months and see whether your decision to cash out half of your BTC was a good one. I really doubt it, but fine, that is what you want to do. I suspect in the mean time, you are probably going to be making various trades though, in order to muddy the waters, and there is NOTHING wrong with engaging in ongoing monitoring of ones holdings and adjusting investment behaviors in order to respond to various changes in the market... (whether expected or NOT). |
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so if the SR coins don't touch the exchanges, they won't affect the price?
Did anyone suggest this? Price is affected by the whole public aspect of an auction taking place and the news developments around that auction - even if the number of coins is NOT really that large in the whole scheme of things, there is a certain amount of public spectacle and waiting to see what everyone else does.... NO one wants to do anything until someone else does something. or if the selling price is made public in the news, will that become new selling price?
A momentum could be created, yet with market prices, NONE of this seems to be certain... There may be inclinations in one direction or another; however, manipulation and/or news could cause inclination and momentum in another direction which feeds upon itself.. up until a point. I doubt that anyone could give you a very clear answer, even though manipulators have better ability to control price directions, they are also limited by the actions or inactions of other manipulators and the momentum also that may snowball amongst the masses. |
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the last run-up was kinda unexpected and swift.. and the one before that too. this time, it seems like we're waiting around for the momentum to build up.. hopefully it'll unfold out differently this time.
there are simply too many average joe's that are 100% certain we are going way up in the next few months. Markets are not kind to good ol boy investors that have it all figured out. We are going down until most average joe's have had enough, it is at that moment they will sell and bitcoin will sky rocket and burn them all. But we aren't there yet, why? because i am an average joe and i have no intention of selling right now. If I ever get an inkling of losing patience and wanting to sell, then buy every bitcoin you can afford. But i am not there yet. 6 more months to a year of these $350 to $650 prices may weed out quite a few more average joes (in your parlance) or average Johnnys. |
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OK.. that makes sense... Erdogan was attempting to send a message... and maybe have some fun... ... Thanks for shedding some light on this previously puzzling matter, Jorge... |
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I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price. You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises. It can be argued all ways. This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said.   I thought so too, but some comments half way persuaded me it was legit. This is absurd! Yes, and I am glad that you seem to be having some fun, Erdogan, since you seemed to have started this mumbo jumbo. I'm NOT really sure why, but what the heck.. adding a few posts to this thread will probably NOT hurt BTC prices.   |
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Do please tell us Mat, what is the going market rate for bitcoins which are certified by the U.S. government to be free of legal encumbrances?
What, can't find any?
Hmm. Perhaps they are, should we say, rare?
Where do I start? Erm.....I acknowledge that you are not alone in this belief, but do you realise the lunacy of what you are saying? Only on this forum, would you find a consensus that thinks there is a difference between Bitcoins seized and sold by a Government and those bought and sold on an exchange or in OTC trades. Do you think that one day we will have YouTube auctions selling 'government sanctioned' BTC at a premium over spot? Will they come with little certificates of authenticity? Will they be sold in little virtual display cases? I usually agree with nearly anything that Aminorex writes, and I thought that MatTheCat was a troll; however, here, MatTheCat communicates reason. Well done MTC!!! There seems to be little premium for legitimacy to the BTC themselves; however, there seems to be considerable legitimacy given to BTC as a whole by the mere fact that the government is going through this auction process (even though the government stole the coins from SR customers based on some bullshit assertions that SR was violating some kind of law that is probably ill conceived and ambiguous and overly broad). |
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okay, lets say one of you guys really wanted the coins. would you put a sealed bid at market price (hoping no one else wants to pay retail). or would you pay 10-20% more or less?
If I had a sufficient quantity of money available for BTC purchases, then I would bid on all ten lots and stagger my bids hoping to win some, if NOT all of the lots. Potentially, I would place bids as low as 80% and as high as 135%. I would expect that having some lots go for premium prices would cause BTC prices to rise, and even my investment at 135% would be profitable in the short run and in the long run. This current calculation is assuming that 6/26 BTC prices are around $590. If BTC prices are lower than $590, then I may bid a higher percentages across the spread, and if BTC prices are higher, then I may bid lower percentages across the spread. |
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you don't get to see other peoples bids.
exactly why they'll offer 110%, but the winner will be the one that offers 120% (I can't believe that I am adding to this numerology crap..... ) or 111.111% |
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i'm thinking FBI coins about 10% above market value.
whales can't accumulate bitcoins on the exchanges without a substantial price movement. 10% above market could be a bargain.
most bidders will put at 110%, but those who will win the auction will bid at 120% or more if they really want to win I don't think anybody is going to pay a 20% premium on those coins. Even if you were so simple as to move that money into Bitstamp to buy your coins, you could buy 3,000 coins with slippage only going to less than $645. That's about a 7% premium IF you assumed all of the coins were bought at $645, but realistically, it would probably average out to about a 3.5% premium. You then have the added benefit of contributing to a bull market. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for 100%, but much more than that is probably unrealistic. You do NOT seem to be thinking this through sufficiently. As others have posted, here, there is likely an incentive to manipulate the price of BTCs down over the next couple of weeks, yet if you already hold 10k or more BTC, then you may be more than willing to bid and/pay a premium on the BTC in order to contribute to the creation of a post auction BTC buzz. Who knows the exact strategy(ies) of the various bidders, and possibly they are trying to figure out various strategies as well... and monitoring BTC prices leading up to the event (b/c they may adjust their strategy based on the market behavior immediately preceding the bid placements). In this regard, there may be some questions among the bidders whether they should low ball or high ball or stagger their bids. Yes, it seems quite conceivable that some of the bidders are going to employ a bid strategy that includes bidding on each of the ten lots, and they may be fairly neutral about whether they win the bid or NOT while resting assured that anyone who bids on such BTC and wins such BTC are going to have to bid more than they do on each of the lots.. in this regard, the BTC are easily going to go above 100% of the then market price (and likely the price will fluctuate during that day based on various bid rumors, so sophisticated bidders will likely wait until near the last hour to place their bids). |
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I read the auction's terms: you cant place multiple bids (!) and the bids are sealed.
So nobody can place ten bids hoping to get all the lots? Multiple bids on one lot is different from one bit on each lot. In other words, I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot. And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot. |
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just came back from the future (don't ask), managed to take a quick snap from bitcoinwisdom  Thank you for that insight. That depiction of BTC prices looks like a very likely course forward; however, I have a couple of questions. First, I hope that your communication of the future does NOT change the course of history, and Second, it seems funny that a supposed current chart from future would be labelled "bitcoin the path ahead." Are you trying to suggest that I have not travelled through time? Allow me to respond comprehensively to your points/accusations below. 1. Hmmm. 2. I came back from 'Q3' 2019... So the 'path ahead' is just the final quarter? Admittedly this is not 'spelled out' on the chart. I trust this is sufficient, now... NO MORE QUESTIONS  I am at a loss for words b/c my doubts have been addressed... especially the "Hmmm" part. The future seems so bright, now, that I better wear shades.  |
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What I'm trying to say is, some amount of disagreement is to be expected. But, yeah, the aggressive, personal tone that developed pretty soon isn't your fault.
Do you concur with him that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme ? I have nothing against someone who knows how to make money & diversify his/her portfolio, but when someone talks nonsense its worth pointing that out to them. of course it is, do your math and grow up. Many times, Oda makes decent and reasonable points in his posts; however, this does NOT seem to be one of his reasonable posts. For some reason Oda feels it is necessary to support mmitech in his various posts on this topic, and it is possible that Oda has NOT either read the previous posts or does NOT understand the situation. Personally, I do NOT think any of us give a flying fuck what mmitech does with his BTC investment or his investment choices. Several postings in this thread, and in the other thread that mmitech was posting on this topic, mmitech has done a real inadequate job in communicating tone and content, and mmitech has been very confrontational in his approach to respond to other posts. It seem like mmitech unable to control himself - his emotions, reactions and defensiveness, and it seem like, he is just a bad communicator. Oda's suggestion that mmitech is NOT at fault in causing the situation seems to be misplaced. To me it seems like either Oda does NOT understand the situation b/c he has NOT read the various relevant posts or has some kind of attachment to mmitech.Or both. O.k... I should have put an "and/or" in there instead of an "or." Would be preferable if all sides could tone down a bit... I really don't see the reason for all the aggressiveness.
Sometimes these matters need to run their course, and the record should speak for itself regarding the tone. To me, it seems that there is NOT too much more to say between mmitech and me, but surely topics (or posts) by either of us may cause additional responses by the other... at least there seems to be a potential for such. I don't especially feel any continued need to pursue the subject or related subjects, but I cannot guarantee that some post may NOT prompt me to raise such subject or feel a need to respond. |
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What I'm trying to say is, some amount of disagreement is to be expected. But, yeah, the aggressive, personal tone that developed pretty soon isn't your fault.
Do you concur with him that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme ? I have nothing against someone who knows how to make money & diversify his/her portfolio, but when someone talks nonsense its worth pointing that out to them. of course it is, do your math and grow up. ....bla...bla...bla..bla.... you are off-topic... again. Yes, it helps to move these communications in a productive direction if you delete the contents of my posts, then you do NOT need to respond b/c you have therefore unilaterally defined the direction of the conversation. Congratulations on your abilities, NOT. Edited above for clarification(s). |
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we're still in a bullish consolidation, flag formation from the last leg up. if BFX breaks 600 to the downside, i will reconsider, but i think we should head up to 630-650 in the next couple days.
1h, 2h, 4h, 6h and 3d are going down  i hope it will not break $600 it has to stay and rise! let's pray and see... Well, if nothing else works, then praying should NOT hurt..... |
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