Here the intentions are opened up a bit more in detail.

It is unlikely that new investors are yet buying, they typically come later. My aim is to get the ones who already know, on board NOW before my big clients raise the price. This will be much better for the community. Otherwise we just have a lot of bitter ex-owners of XMR looking at their empty wallets wondering what hit them.

Very good stuff from the core team. +1  


Okay, first:
- I had no explicit knowledge of the massive release you were about to make the hours following my statement.
Second:
- The MEW (where both you and I are officials), is not working on the paradigm of voting. We have had very few votes or control of any kind, yet have been able to accomplish a lot on the paradigm of empowerment. I don't even know how much, and none of it has required my approval to get it going. I do take pride of developing the structure that allows things to happen without my approval, because the structure was my design. In CK we are struggling with this issue still..

If I have the resources to make XMR price go up, and the intention to (commit actions that will lead to) do so, I can officially make any announcement I feel right. Until now I haven't even taken advantage of low price myself, due to a self-imposed 24 hour delay from the announcement to action.

The trolls are accusing me of manipulating the price, and they are absolutely correct. I am one of the approximately 1 million people on the planet who have enough funds to (currently) do it (and unless others of the same caliber actively step in). There is no denying this fact. The least I can do before starting to buy en masse due to these wonderful new developments, and before allocating my carte blanche wealth management clients' funds to it, and promote it to the larger circles that I advice concerning wealth management, and before reactivating my gold/silver/BTC/XMR/fiat dealership enabling XMR to be bought with fiat, etc. is to announce all of it beforehand.

At face value, it looks like I am massively shooting at my own foot here, after all my stash has been bought many times higher than the price now, and buying more just became almost impossible with the supply drying up. But I have the understanding that the value of the currency is in the network of people who use it, and right now is the time to start getting back those people who were burning for Monero last summer but have since sold due to the depressing market and development taking time. The longer we wait until revaluation, the more violent it will be and again people will get burned. Abrupt and spectacular surges always happen with the coins, let's see if we can avoid it this time.

Everybody is invited to prove me wrong in the field. To fire a bullet, enter any amount in the box and click SELL. That'll teach me    I also have a kitty of customer funds for buying OTC, contact me.

It is called openness. It is very precious(expensive), and hopefully appreciated by the "people".

I will start buying 24 hours from my announcement to do so, but the price is already up 20% and 24 hours have not even passed yet 

His 2-week forum ban just ended. The thread ban is permanent.

The high point of XMR emission was $100,000 per day (in June).

The low point of XMR emission was $3,000 per day (last Wednesday).


Yes, the emission was totally too high, but that got fixed. When we recover to the public interest level of last June, the price will be 30x higher than now.

I don't want the price to rise, because I am a buyer. And a front for my clients, who are buying. There was a small bump on Christmastime when the price doubled in a few days. That showed me that buying any larger quantities is anyway impossible. Only the miners are selling.

The announcement is important, because it adds to my glory as a person who can predict market movements, and starts a playful competition about how long the sellers can keep the price down.

If they can keep it down long enough, I am publicly shamed with my wrong prediction, but get to buy cheap coins. If the price instead goes up and stays there, it is a relief for most of the people who answered the poll, and being correct in my prediction eases the pain of needing to pay more. If it shoots up and starts a decline again - well, that's what the coins do. For this reason I urge everyone to sell when it feels toppy.

I am also involved in a new OTC venture. Let's see if we can have aggregation of the OTC to some usable platform that supports fiat as well...

So, let this be the official announcement that the price of monero will now start rising.

We would hope the rise to be gradual, but it is very difficult to cap once it starts. Not many want to sell their precious stashes below cost. In fiat, we are still at 10-15% the cost of most holders.

Everyone who reads this is asked to keep calm and buy at most a very small amount per day, but instead be very vigilant in selling at the best opportunity. Large holders are entering in, we need them, and they need the coins!  

Trolls want to know what I think exactly concerning the timing of the rise. That is however reserved for IRC only.

So after your opinion, we have at least 1 who thinks that low prices are beneficial, but the majority thinks they would better rise.

I think it's quite easy to deduce that 0.0009 cannot be breached as long as everything is on track.

If, on the other hand, we have a potential explosive upside, and almost no downside unless the tech breaks, then....


...the only ones selling are the dumb miners. And that's what is happening!

As I see it, the rise can be contained exactly as long as there are no determined buyers. Even 1 buyer that demands to buy regardless of price, can totally ignite the uptrend. Imo $100k is enough to put us to BTC0.004.

I have $100k. My question was whether it's better to be there than here.  

The highest stable annual growth is possibly around 6-8%. If the internal growth rate of the thing is higher, it turns speculative because people start to discount the future excess returns in the present price (discounting). This means that the price is valued higher, and this revaluation of the price itself means that the annual return becomes far in excess of 6-8%, inviting more capital etc. A bubble is formed, taking the price to highs not supported by the fundamentals, which allows for the crash to find the new, more stable levels.

Imo, it is impossible to prevent this turbulent growth from happening if the growth of the economy is higher than the threshold level. So, we will always have booms until the cryptoEconomy growth rate slows to 3%.

Do we have an agreement that price rise is beneficial for Monero at large?


I mean - it's not difficult to let the price rise. We just end price suppression and let it be marketed, right?

It is a different thing if we are talking big money. But now, the next 12 months, we are talking about ~$1 million total. I sell my castle and buy every single monero that is mined over the next 365 days. Why are we speculating about a thing that's essentially a decision?

There are developments that may be lifting the price a big percentage, and they may have already started, or happen in 1-2 months.

Is that what we want?

Fallacy: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence


This often surfaces when you venture on debating about some actual matter of the state of the world, in this case: vaccination.

The extreme opinions on the issue (both are commonly held, though some hold an intermediate opinion as well) are:

1. Vaccinations are developed to help humanity, are effective with their stated purpose in preventing/curing diseases, and either 100% safe, or at least the pros greatly outweigh the cons.

2. Vaccinations are a systematic and deliberate scam, they hardly if ever have a net positive effect on anything, rather spread the diseases they are suppose to prevent and weaken the human natural immune defence in the same way as AIDS does, so that the delibitating effects are hard to detect. The real reason to push mandatory vaccination is not the desire that people would stay alive and have long, healthy, happy, lives, but that they would develop hard-to-tackle diseases, develop sterility and die, and during their miserable life make as much money to the drug-food-death-industry complex as possible.


Now the ones holding the latter opinion (2.) are typically required to present insurmountable evidence that their viewpoint is true (which of course they typically have plenty of, otherwise they would not have converted to such opinion, yet all is brushed away as "unreliable" and "unscientific" meaning that it does not agree with the dominant view).

Yet, the people in the first group (1.) seldom if ever, hold, or can present any evidence on their claim, and if asked, try to label you the troublemaker. Since they are the majority, and Government agrees with their opinion, no proof is needed.


The rule in the subject line is fallacy for the reason that it is utterly unscientific and hostile to progress, while placating group onania concerning whatever opinions the system is propagating, because they are proclaimed as "normal" opinions, and everything contradictory as "extraordinary" opinion.

What if we made it totally the opposite? The dominant view, which has earned domination because it is true, would have to be more rigorously proven than the challenging view? In the vaccination case, for example, every report and study that finds that the control group of unvaccinated children is more healthy than the vaccinated ones, should be thoroughly analysed and not brushed off as having a lacking methodology. The universities have experts in methodology, let them conduct research on the vaccines! (Currently the system is such that because they are safe, they are safe, and because they are effective, they are effective, and no studies are made, and people see with their own eyes that they are neither safe nor effective but because ...)

Current system seems to be able to bear an unlimited amount of contradictory evidence, because people have been conditioned to accept that if it's been in force for 150 years, it is so ingrained to modern society that even if the Angel of God told otherwise, he would not be accepted.

Whereas it should be exactly the opposite. After doing something for 150 years, you should be so totally familiar with its usefulness and truth that any evidence to the contrary would be most serious. Serious not because you are threatened that you might change your thinking, but serious in a way that you are on the cusp of wonderful new discoveries after seeing that one flaw in your thinking.

It's like a sudoku, you can keep on adding numbers on a wrong assumption, but once the wrong assumption is exposed, no matter how many years you had been filling that sudoku, you better erase as many numbers as necessary to get you back on the truthful basis. If you continue to fill the numbers on a faulty basis, you are never going to solve it. Why do people then continue in the real world topics, if they don't try to fool themselves with sudokus? Because:

Concerning this vaccination, which I just took as one example, albeit serious, of the state of the world - most of humankind is totally drugged (partly by vaccines themselves, irony as it is) to ever grasp the situation. For us who possess the necessary faculty of logic, and are willing to reject Big Brother (unfortunately, it's hard to continue embracing the system which propagates such lies, making the simple action in your thinking a great and practical divorce from the hand that feeds you and empties your pockets).

Embracing the truth is a one way street and you do not have that much liberty concerning what to believe. Truth is truth. What is labelled "free thinking" is typically self-puffed pseudo-intellectuals attacking the vestiges of truth that are still even parts of the public discourse, while being sheepishly ignorant of their thinking being safely confined inside the fold of propaganda. I am not a free thinker. My thinking is very much constrained by what is true, and it is leading me to narrower and narrower paths.

Oh, and the "extraordinary claim requires extraordinary evidence" part? Which actually is a more extraordinary claim:

- You should keep your immune system in a good condition by healthy food, exercise, hygiene and moderate habits
- People of all ages need to be injected up to 200 times with germs, heavy metals, formaldehyde, alum, proteins, bovine calf serum, phenol, acetone and aborted babies, to protect them from diseases and uphold their immune system.

Even though I think that naturally the latter one is a joke and something that - if told - we would not believe people believed in the Middle Ages, I am willing to give both the equal terms in proving their claims.

It should not be so that everything the government is supporting is regarded true by virtue, this is illogical (the government has lied in the past, so it cannot be universally true anyway). Research groups that are not supported by any party who has a skin in the game financially (the drug companies) or in population control (government) should evaluate the claims and policy should be made base on the scientific and tested facts.

Needless to say, there is no impartial, scientific study ever (150 years) conducted that has pronounced vaccines safe.

Finding articles that seem to find them unsafe, are not hard to find.

Well with cryptocurrency investing, the marginal benefit of more information is rather low. Why? Because of the maxim:

The return of investment is correlated with the number of coins bought, not with knowledge. Both a person knowledgeable about the topic, and the one who has not a clue, receive the same return.


Of course knowledge helps in timing, allocation, secure storage etc.

I am about to start a new information resource (blog, website) for my thinking. Getting started with enough quality and structure is the hard part.

I will be burdening this thread with quite random thoughts now, until they settle and I get to organize them and decide about which angle to take and how to position my resource among the plurality of offering out there.

Feel free to comment! Just wanted to tell that the sudden randomness of topic is preplanned.

The subject of the thread. I even promised pictures if you tell me which aspect needs visualization.

No, in real life applications (as opposed to casino gambling) it is very subjective, and the success of the method is exactly in the subjective evaluation of:

i) what can happen
ii) in what probability
iii) what is the financial outcome.

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Certainly is was possible, it even happened  

It is most probable that my stash of XMR is worth nothing in 5 years, but since it's possible for it to be 100, 1000 or 100,000 times more valuable than it is now, that makes it worthwhile.

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

The final ancient years: 1587

I am 221 years old, my reign is 187 years, and the town was founded 157 years ago. Does not feel like that old, but the records kept in the Royal Palace and in the Town Registry in the Town Hall Annex are uninfringeable.

Great changes are coming, which were prophesied by the very ancient wise men, and are written in the scrolls (see OP for details). I start this series of frequent updates in the thread, which will continue as long as the thread is used. That will not be for very long any more.

We have strengthened the Town Council with SirJacket and MarquessRiccardo to be a task force for the transition to the new game platform. The time for developing it, long as it has been, has been used to implement capabilities and functionalities far in excess of the original specification for the first playable version. What we are now doing, is transitioning directly to Economy, both in scope and in the platform. This was always scheduled to happen at the close of the Ancient era, which means we are on schedule.

For internal use of the task force, we have a project flowchart currently consisting of 10 items.
Releases
Buildings
DB structure
DB contents
CKG listing
Marketing Outreach
Marketing to ancients
Organization / finances
Gameplay
Admins/tutorial

Each item is mapped for its contents and the relations are easily shown. We will tackle the challenges with the existing professionals, and contract new resources if necessary. I will bring some things to your attention:

Releases. We expect that the next release is Version 4: Online , which will be available for play after i) the ancient era has ended + ii) the data has been ported. The critical path goes through me currently, as I will need to make the scoping of the version while still having a lot to do with the administration of this one. This may pose a delay but it should not be long, considering that I made the game initially in 10 days.

Buildings. The time now is very good for building. If you have any plans for ancient buildings, no matter how vague, they can be built. We will soon tell a deadline after which no new architecture commissions are taken anymore.

CKG listing. In our opinion, it benefits our new game and marketing reach greatly, if gold CKG can be listed in some exchange that already trades with crypto, preferably XMR, and has an existing customer base that can venture to this asset easily. Such negotiations are ongoing. Gold has recently made a new all-time-high (in XMR terms, in BTC and USD it's still way behind) and HM coinshop is diligently operating to buy/sell 3,000 gold at a time, and adjust the price afterwards for the next lot.

Gameplay. We expect to not make big changes to the googleDB game anymore. Everything that can be done now, will be useful in the future, even if there is no instant gratification.

Promotions.

My heart melts when seeing all the brave nobles and aspiring commoners listed in the Char DB. Until now, the difference between being an Earl or Marquess, for example, has mainly been that of status. When we get the Online running and Countryside is implemented, the difference will suddenly become much greater. The fiefs that will be given to the nobles, free of charge, from where they can press tax income in the form of essential food resources, will scale exponentially with the player level. Whereas a Baron is not entitled to a fief at all, the fief of an Earl is 1 unit, and that of a Duke is about 15 units.

We still have a NPC promotion round left, and I strongly suggest to contract an Army now in hopes of some promotions there, which ensure that there is enough tax-collecting capacity. Even peasants are not scared of rookies (the rookies are peasants with an ill-fitting uniform).

I would like to give a whole lot of promotions at the close of the age, but the rules must be followed. In short, if you believe you are next in line for a promotion, check the following:
- Have I played the game actively, trolled in the chat, helped new players, brought in new ones?
- Have I donated to important causes such as the University, Army, Church and Monero House?
- Have I constructed public utility buildings, or Science / Culture buildings?
- What is my Culture rating, relative to others seeking a promotion? (Culture is the one single thing that collects all of the above things)

Brute forcing (buying a heckload of everything) does raise the level, but I don't want to assign stingy people to rule over the peasants. Every Marquess or above is known of their good works, I know them even if you don't.

The St. Peter Church

Speaking of good works, HG The Bishop has been totally consummated with out-game activities related to XMR, so I will have to help him in the fundraising. Simply put, a 24-q lot is donated by the Town at the centre of the 5th Borough. If you didn't know, the place is geographically closer to the Old Town than anything. A really massive church is being built, for which a certain amount of money and stone is needed.

In the old days, the lots at 2-C sold out instantly at 50/q, so the land the town gave is worth 1,200 mil easily. We don't have even a tentative calculation of the costs of the building, but University is same size and cost 2,000 mil.

As the King, I am also a great supporter of the true Christian faith and have promised to match 50% to every donation. It would be a true landmark to have it built during the ancient era, for which I count on your support. Sorry for brevity, the other 9 items in the Online transition project flowchart press me 

Farewell, my loving people.

That one is left to anyone. My method is just:

- select a timeframe
- think of what might happen
- group the "might happens" to actionable scenarios, typically 5 is a good number of scenarios even if the range of outcomes is very complex, just group them
- set the outcomes for the scenarios, guess the probabilities
- calculate the EV, and AEPR [(EV/PV)^(1/years)-1]

The Monero example is good because it shows that the EV does come at a cost:
- in 70% probability the outcome is zero = you lose all
- 5% is nearly zero
- 10% the purchasing power is kept
- 15% are the scenarios where you get 10x, 100x or 1000x return, which account for the bulk of the EV despite being rather improbable

So this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't. The EV is not all. A rational actor needs to think also what the utility of money is in the case he becomes a multimillionaire. On the other hand, excess profits can be easily cut by periodical selling if the positive scenarios start materializing. A good scheme for this is in my sig (SSS).

Seriously guys, flipping burgers is an option if 5 years is too much for a 50,000% EV 

Volatility will increase when uncertainty is introduced.

The current volatility of the price of gold is man-made, it serves the interests of the money-masters. And: it's not the price of gold that is measured; gold is the yardstick to measure the value of everything else, especially the CB/fiat/financial assets. It's not about the value of a yellow metal, since the metal has little to no value, it's about the fact of having a "way to call the bluff of the financial system", and that we have not only with gold, but in Bitcoin as well now.

 If the stocks:flows ratio becomes uncertain with the technological advances, we will have natural market volatility on top of the manipulation.