[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Removed, too much personal info there.

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[dewdeded]

DRK is no real, ultimate competitor. The Monero Project has a certain future (there is enough demand and  Monero offers significant benefits for legal usage/users). Monero has a solid chance (best-case-scenario) to become one of the leading, widely-used and supported Crypto Currency, even if it won't become the leading trading-coin on the Dark Net.

Two things are important:
- don't concentrate all your posts, thoughts, involvement about becoming sick rich (with XMR), like Bitcoin Early Adopters (this creates bad atmosphere and work attitude)

- Monero is about building our new, own ecosystem and with all the related-services, 1.) the basic ones we need, to create a healthy, vivid coin, that has a real chance to survive organically and the 2.) the services & use-cases we like to have (and maybe miss elsewhere)

- i suggest establishing the idea: of turning around this disadvantage, of not being able to use the hole developed & estab. Bitcoin-Infrastructure & -software, into an potential/strength: we have the chance to build an Crypto Currency ecosystem from scratch, exact the way we want and need it, free from historic boundaries & rules, with the help and usage of todays: technology, knowledge and practical experience with other CCs

- we can and should learn from all the problems, questionable developments and judged with todays knowledge bad/not ideal design decision in Bitcoin and we should do it
- to have a coin and ecosystem that has a chance of long-term usage and success, for us self [increasing our satisfaction & added value by contributing to Monero] and for all the future users that we want and need, so the project and currency reaches usage numbers and the public status, it needs to: just stay alive, stay fair and economically wise to use (long term)
- so it can evolve and improve and hopefully be successful

- Another essential fact to note: we have to work and create a currency, community and ecosystem that is independent from Dark Web-usage, focussing on easy usage and handling for all users (not only standard end-users, also other E-Commerce relevant players: like merchants, power users with certain requirements, vendors, site owners, media, ...).
Once we have build this privacy-centric coin, we should inform the interested/relevant general public outside of the Crypto scene about Monero, to attract many "real-world users", to use Monero because of it's features and (unique) benefits.

- there is no value in: "faking" E-Commerce, when we as XMR community send around coins back and forth for stupid services & random gimmicks or [like other failed coins] thinking, some illegal online gambling sites with XMR will be enough to create an solid ecosystems

We need to work hard and persistent to create this first small real, legit XMR E-Commerce.
We need these non-tech/non-crypto people for feedback to improve XMR clients, apis, services and processes.
If we can get there and we have: real users, the software solutions (where people understand and are happy to use Mult-Sig-TXs e.g. for escrow), honestly earned trust from the media, tech community & co and we as community have shown we really help and support XMR professional early adopters,
THEN: Dark Web-adoption will come and if XMR really adds benefits for Dark Web-trading, it may become the dominant, leading privacy-coin (with the expected big growth in price)

I read alot of posts talking about "DRK vs XMR battle", "supposed advantages DRK has over XMR, so DRK will be the leading dark web coin and everyone supporting Monero is stupid", "Monero ain't interesting to hold/trade, there is no price development, no price pump I can participate ...." coming from generally bad (informed) posters, non technical alt-coin-community and or newbs, with newly regged accounts and childish behavior.
These people are wrong. The Monero project and community is way more & multifaceted and honestly intrinsic motivated. All the people in the XMR community I talked with, really believed in and lived after the principals and ideas Monero represents.
We don't have actors (like alot of other projects), just pseudo-participating a bit to get rich. People support Monero, because they really support the conception and ideas & values behind it, the innovative technology used, the open & democratic development process and the higher-than-average  friendly, intelligent, pleasant & pro-active community.

---> don't let these bullshit thoughts get into your brain and tell these posters they are wrong



That's all I had on my mind and wanted to say. Thank you.

[wpalczynski]

Thanks Risto.  I though perhaps the process might be a little less subjective.

I would really like to learn how to perform these EV assessments/calculations, can anyone point me to a good writeup on it?

That one is left to anyone. My method is just:

- select a timeframe
- think of what might happen
- group the "might happens" to actionable scenarios, typically 5 is a good number of scenarios even if the range of outcomes is very complex, just group them
- set the outcomes for the scenarios, guess the probabilities
- calculate the EV, and AEPR [(EV/PV)^(1/years)-1]

The Monero example is good because it shows that the EV does come at a cost:
- in 70% probability the outcome is zero = you lose all
- 5% is nearly zero
- 10% the purchasing power is kept
- 15% are the scenarios where you get 10x, 100x or 1000x return, which account for the bulk of the EV despite being rather improbable

So this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't. The EV is not all. A rational actor needs to think also what the utility of money is in the case he becomes a multimillionaire. On the other hand, excess profits can be easily cut by periodical selling if the positive scenarios start materializing. A good scheme for this is in my sig (SSS).

[rpietila]

Thanks Risto.  I though perhaps the process might be a little less subjective.

No, in real life applications (as opposed to casino gambling) it is very subjective, and the success of the method is exactly in the subjective evaluation of:

i) what can happen
ii) in what probability
iii) what is the financial outcome.

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Certainly is was possible, it even happened  

It is most probable that my stash of XMR is worth nothing in 5 years, but since it's possible for it to be 100, 1000 or 100,000 times more valuable than it is now, that makes it worthwhile.

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

[jehst]

... this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't.

A 15% chance of getting rich would appeal to many. The issue, as you've already identified, is that they don't think  the chance is 15%.  

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Other people are also doing a rough EV calculation in their brains, but according to their subjective evaluations, a 400 billion dollar cryptocurrency market cap within 5 years isn't possible at all.
0% chance.

[aalborg]

Thanks Risto.  I though perhaps the process might be a little less subjective.

No, in real life applications (as opposed to casino gambling) it is very subjective, and the success of the method is exactly in the subjective evaluation of:

i) what can happen
ii) in what probability
iii) what is the financial outcome.

Many of my friends did not follow my published recommendation to buy BTC at $20 in Feb-13, because they did not believe it's possible to hit $1,000 the same year.

Certainly is was possible, it even happened  

It is most probable that my stash of XMR is worth nothing in 5 years, but since it's possible for it to be 100, 1000 or 100,000 times more valuable than it is now, that makes it worthwhile.

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

You apparently hit bitcoin at the right time. That is one stroke of luck. I know your background, given you got coverage in some Finnish magazines after buying a rundown mansion and claiming. not demonstrating, that you had made X amount. I recall as well that you told a journalist something about the imminent collapse of world currencies.

You are on here with this crap, trying to speak like a stock market/bankng/financial expert.

You're none of them, your biography is documented in public.

I can speculate on why you make these absurd posts, but you have cottoned on to the fact that the crypto-world is largely dominated by people with below average incomes and very little knowledge of what drives markets, and are quite possibly likely to be impressed when you use market language.

Personally, I think there is scam behind you, but I have no proof, so it is just my own speculation, and not to be considered by others as evidence..

If you are sincere, then I am happy to say that I know for sure that you are clueless.

[jehst]

If you are sincere, then I am happy to say that I know for sure that you are clueless.

Teach him and he will be quiet. If you can't teach him, then you yourself be quiet.

[smooth]

Let's get back on topic

[GingerAle]

Let's get back on topic

I speculate Monero is going to Alpha Centauri. The moon is for myopic terrestrial gravity well types.

But seriously. The markets these days. thanks xmr.to

[mmortal03]

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

[smooth]

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

Fact is most of the active cryptocurrency projects have abandoned proof-of-work. Ethereum is an exception, which isn't on the list because it hasn't launched, but reasonably is <#7. They haven't quite abandoned it yet, but they're talking about it. Every other coin above us except DRK and DOGE is a first-wave altcoin.

One can speculate about various reasons for that, including that PoW is no good and that scammers don't like PoW because they can't control supply, and others, but one way or another we're an outlier here.

[mmortal03]

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).

Yeah, that's one of the lists that I look at from time to time. There's a huge gap between Monero and the next one up, Namecoin.

Fact is most of the active cryptocurrency projects have abandoned proof-of-work. Ethereum is an exception, which isn't on the list because it hasn't launched, but reasonably is <#7. They haven't quite abandoned it yet, but they're talking about it. Every other coin above us except DRK and DOGE is a first-wave altcoin.

One can speculate about various reasons for that, including that PoW is no good and that scammers don't like PoW because they can't control supply, and others, but one way or another we're an outlier here.

For sure. PoW is a huge plus when discussing Monero with more knowledgeable individuals. One remaining knock against it that I'll get, however, is the theory that if any other PoW coin ever starts to legitimately compete with Bitcoin, that resources will be diverted to attack it (51% attack), essentially arguing that only one blockchain, Bitcoin's, will ever survive in the long term, as it is the longest, and has, by far, the most computing resources behind it. However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero? Would they still be incentivized to do it indirectly, though, by spending *new* money *just* devoted to killing/forking Monero and protecting Bitcoin supremacy? Is there some other scenario where it might play out this way?

[smooth]

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

[jehst]

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

[mmortal03]

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

For sure, but, of course, we have to arrive at that point in the future *before* someone decides to attack us.

[jehst]

However, given that Monero doesn't use SHA256, and the hashrate of the Bitcoin network is increasingly coming from ASICs, isn't this not directly possible for individuals to divert enough of their hashing power from Bitcoin miners to kill Monero?

Correct, the equipment is not transferrable at all, but as you point out, if "hashing power" or "work" means not specific equipment but money/energy/etc. it is possible the resources could be redirected.

If the whole world starts mining XMR while computers, it wouldn't matter how many resources were redirected.

For sure, but, of course, we have to arrive at that point in the future *before* someone decides to attack us.

Developing XMR-ASICs is not worth it, but yes. If attackers did develop XMR-ASICs and then mine at a huge loss competing against botnets, then they could attack the system.

[dnaleor]

Legal disclaimer: "my" may refer to any entity instead of or in addition to my person and utmost caution is taken to structure the holdings so as to nullify any claims towards it by anyone.

I always like your disclaimers

[Wexlike]

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

[jehst]

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

[rpietila]

New investors entering the market ? Insane jump from 0.0011 to almost 0.0015.

r. pietila will begin buying on behalf of clients this week. substantial amounts of coins will be bought. the price is going to rise.

Here the intentions are opened up a bit more in detail.

It is unlikely that new investors are yet buying, they typically come later. My aim is to get the ones who already know, on board NOW before my big clients raise the price. This will be much better for the community. Otherwise we just have a lot of bitter ex-owners of XMR looking at their empty wallets wondering what hit them.