Um, it may have had its basis in an analysis you made on May 2nd, but that public update, published on May 10th, referenced dates and used charts after May 2nd (e.g. May 3rd and May 9th).  And at the start of the public update your voice seems to be pretty clearly speaking from the present.  Given all that, it now seems even more odd that you would issue this public update on May 10th (whether it had some basis in May 2nd's update or not) and then privately issue to your subscribers, on the very same day, as you just confessed, a new analysis which "turned bearish".  I was a subscriber of yours for some time.  You seem like a nice guy, but this smells bad.

Exactly.  This was a key signal for me to stay out of bitcoins. 

+1

Totally agree.  I think this move will end up being the start of a decisive move out of the trading range we've been stuck in, and I don't think it's going to be a move up.  This was the most bearish thing I'd seen in a long time and it convinced me that I ought to stay in cash.

Sorry, I wish things looked differently, but I think the remainder of 2012 and into 2013 will be quite depressing.

You guys and your short squeeze messiah.  He isn't coming.  

For how many more weeks is it going to be this easy to profit off this sell above $5 and buy below $5 strategy.  This is getting a bit ridiculous.  But, hey, I'll keep playing.

Hope you guys are ready. 

Cool, again.

Can't wait to see what this chart looks like a month from now.

Thanks for the update.

I doubt Diablo 3 will have any noticeable effect on the price.

On a more serious note, I don't go into the mining forum much since I don't mine anymore, but I just checked out the thread on mystery miner and the whole botnet miner thing is a bit concerning, I think.  The difficulty is projected to take a pretty step up pretty soon and that going to cut into the profits of legitimate miners.  If the botnet trend keeps up we could see a significant number of legitimate miners bail out.  And botnet owners are more likely than legitimate miners to sell ASAP, creating more downward pressure on the price.  Also, as their coins are generated at potentially the lowest cost, they can chase the price further downward.  Additionally, the reward halving is coming up in a little over 6 months.  I can't see the emergence and continuation of botnet mining combined with reward reduction will be a good thing.  In addition to downward pressure from botnets alone, we'll also have miners made non-profitable through botnet mining leaving and miners leaving from the reward halving, which leaves botnet miners and FPGA/ASIC miners.  And FPGA/ASIC guys can also chase the price down as their operation costs are lower. 

I keep saying this, but I'm not more convinced than ever that from a fundamentals perspective the price is not going to go higher than the 2012 high in the next year, and there's a decent chance the price will settle in a new range below where we're at now ($1-$3, maybe).  I'm being totally serious in this post (my posts, if you haven't noticed aren't always serious).

Still on track despite worries of another big drop.

Solution:  Everyone stop producing bitcoins and lets rig the protocol to issue rewards from transaction fees only.  Deflation!  Yay!!!

That's one way to look at it.

If you're base price isn't already under $5, it looks like you'll get another chance to lower it by a nice amount soon.  Selling pressure is growing, I think.

Ready to sell again.  Hopefully I can get out in the $5.40s and buy more under $5 again.

They need to go first.  You know, to show us the way.

Told ya.

I think we're going to see some more dipping.  I going to wait out this buying cycle, I think.  I see a good chance prices go lower than the last times it's bounced around like this.