I didn't say I'm not bearish  Just that I still disagree with your analysis. You continue looking at a time frame of the latest uptrend (the one that started at around Christmas), and then show (correctly, as I would say) that this trend broke. But then your conclusion is actually much larger than that: you say your outlook "for a few weeks" is bearish. I don't know how you would come to that conclusion, unless you add a large dose of EW axioms (which I am extremely skeptical about). |
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What is this?
A correction for ants?!
I went to bed on a big bright red 6h candle, expecting I'd wake up to single digits (maybe lower!), and now what do we got here? 940?!
I'm disappointed guys. You can do better. Give it another try, for me.
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This is it people. We're entering the long slow slide, which will probably be a short fast fall, given all the bad news and the fact that bitcoin has reached its saturation point and there's really nothing interesting or useful left to do development wise. Long term outlook is pretty dismal, I'm sorry to say.
You're cute when you're back in troll mode |
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Market manipulation they're trying to prevent a crash.
By being up and running? |
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Price follows news: wrong.
News follow price: wrong as well.
News+Price=rather complex clusterfuck: true
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New year starts with oomph
Such joy to trade Bitcoin!
Now, on to single digits
Wow Such year Much joy  Dogespeak = Haiku ... I had no idea o_O |
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New year starts with oomph
Such joy to trade Bitcoin!
Now, on to single digits
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Bitstamp home page offline for me as well, but it seems you can go straight to some other pages, like: https://www.bitstamp.net/account/login/?next=/market/order/instant/Unrelated: What's with all the talk about hitting new ATH anytime soon? Did you buy back all in, adam? You guys realize that there's a pretty good chance we haven't seen the end of this (sub) correction yet, right? I continue to be "agnostic" about the larger correction, but at least for the small one, I see a real chance for price hitting ~850 (mtgox) at least once. |
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No love for bid/ask ratio history? coinorama has it, would love to have it on btcwisdom as well...
I agree bid/ask is useful. and has plan to import it. For saving bandwidth and CPU, The system doesn't record and return VWAP and bid/ask count. It is not difficulty to implement. I'm gong to add them when we get more servers. brilliant. best btc site ever, seriously. (I'll make another donation as well, to show i mean it) |
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Interesting situation. Bitstamp looking quite a bit more bearish than mtgox. Both are mostly in a state of suspension though, for now. Let's assume downward breakout today, or over the next few days. Which to me looks slightly more likely right now than the alternative of resuming the 2 week uptrend... Maybe some price targets? If we do in fact go down with some force, but fin support in the 30d EMA (right now @~830 mtgox) I'd take that as a very strong bullish signal for the near future. Say we break through it though. We have 2 post-ATH lows, 590 and 460. Obviously, should we fall below 460 all bets are off. Staying above both of them, on the other hand will give some confidence we've seen the capitulation bottom. Not a signal for a big rally, but slowly upwards moving consolidation probably. In any case, until we actually close under the 6h EMA30, I'm not even going to get active. Not a single downtrend came into motion without that happening first in the last 2 months or so. Until then, I'll sit tight (note however that I aim to trade only the medium/large swings, and let most smaller ones slide) |
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chance = a million monkeys on a million computers pressing buy or sell at any point in time. as time interval increases probability of operating better then chance should also. I posit that this is not the case for most in Bitcoin, unless you follow what has occurred in the past in this thread (up to about a month ago if you haven't noticed), which was manipulation and self-fulfilling prophecy, able to exist and "predict" without any need for lines, though sprinkles do make a cake look better I'll admit.
could go on and elaborate, but the same sheep will likely straw-man what I'm saying yet again, and continue to obey the dark spirit which navigates this thread with manipulative intent and skill.
I'll stick to this and repeat, for newbs:
When Gavin, the lead developer for what may potentially be one of the most destructive, revolutionary, paradigm-shifting man-made developments the human species has ever experienced was asked what he has found most surprising, his reply was, that people will trade anything with a price attached to it.
Now, I'm anxiously awaiting $4, I mean, $2k, as mentioned the night before this recent rally ignition.
Carry on.
"It was the best of times, it was the...BLURST of times?!?!" - Mr. Burns
Forgot to take your meds again, huh? |
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any way to increase the default viewing timeframe? it seems automatically tied to the candle width. Mouse scrolling down over the interface increases timeframe. Unless I am misunderstanding you? nope, got it, just getting used to the interface, thanks so the mouse wheel seems only to increase it to some arbitrary max, and then allows you to zoom in from there, but if you want to view a longer timeframe zooming out with your browser's built-in zoom function seems to work well. Yes, there's a max time frame that can and will be displayed. first it's limited by your screen size (or resolution) which determines how far you can "zoom out" with the mouse wheel. the exact time span displayed per screen depends on both the zoom level, your resolution and the time period setting you chose (1h,6h etc). you can go back further into "history" by drag&dropping the view... but there's a hard limit (again, dependent on the time period setting) how far you can go back. not sure what the max candle history is, I'm under the impression the u/bitcoinwisdom maybe slightly raised it lately. Anyway.... May I suggest going over to: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190722the creator is super helpful, takes useful suggestions into account, and his site has so far stood up under load (during volatile times) when all others (including clarkmoody) have failed. IMO the best live charting & trading website right now, and I recommend to make a small donation (or subscribe) so he can afford to run it in the future, with the same level of service. |
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Who's from Belgium here?
I'm trying to remember. It came up in a beer discussion a while back. The Belgian was pimping his own country's brews and dissing everybody else's, especially Heineken. I have to say that I think in this case the Belgian is correct! A bit ironic for me though as I live in Belgium but don't drink. They put a lot of effort into their beer here. I think that around the world there are only 7 genuine monastic beer distilleries - and 6 of them are in Belgium. It's part of a religion to them! It was me! And actually I said there are plenty of good beers in other countries, but comon, there's no way you can defend Heineken :-D. Oh and I'm not a lover of Pils in the first place. Oh, I remember that one... I took the position that Belgian beer is akin to raw sewage (with more malty overtones, perhaps). However, in the meantime I had to revise my position a bit... as part of an accident that I don't want to talk about, I recently ingested a moderately large amount of raw sewage. That was the exact moment when I realized the grave injustice I did to raw sewage by comparing it to Belgian beer earlier. |
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Good post, arepo.
I'm sceptical of flags in BTC land, so please forgive me if I don't put too much weight behind that. Other than that, you analysis is solid, as always.
Of course it doesn't answer _the_ question that's on everybody's mind: is the larger (post-1200) correction over or not? For fairness sake, I don't expect you to answer it... in fact, I'm wary of anyone who claims he can answer it. I believe the best way to play the current market is to determine your long term price assumptions and your willingness for risk, and then trade (or not trade) accordingly the smaller swings, aiming to ride the bigger wave in the process as good as possible.
Anyway. So far, I'm not that impressed by the current downtrend. Critical levels to watch are 915 (mtgox), the volume weighted median of the first major swing of this correction, and 900 (mtgox), 6h EMA30 that has proven extremely reliable in the past few months (if read correctly). If those are broken and price closes below, I'll think about selling some. Volume-wise, the situation is inconclusive: 2h CMF is stable and positive on mtgox and bitstamp, which is a good sign, but bid/ask ratios are falling like rocks across major exchanges.
All in all, I'd say it's more likely we haven't seen the end of today's downtrend yet, but I'm not quite ready to declare our mini-rally, that started a few days before christmas, dead quite yet.
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No love for bid/ask ratio history? coinorama has it, would love to have it on btcwisdom as well...
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Den Zusatz von Molecular unterstütze ich. Generell sind Beispiele "aus dem Leben" immer am besten.
Was anderes: ich fände es gut, wenn Diskussionen über angeblich bessere Staatsformen und Auswanderungsbestrebungen in einem eigenen Thread geführt würden.
Mein thread, meine Regeln (aber, ja. Im prinzip stimm ich dir zu) |
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I think TA should be used with real caution now, since the fundamentals have improved and we have a lot of bigger players entering. Just some advice for the people who focus mainly on TA.
I don't know, really. What else do you have, other than TA? I mean, fundamentals are subject to interpretation as well. There is no "objective" way to look at news/fundamentals... the market reaction to the Silk Road bust is a perfect example for that. My point is, TA is just as useful or not useful as it always is. Perhaps what you have in mind is better phrased as: "don't cling to *outdated* assumptions from TA". I remember one of the mantras being repeated after the April peak/crash was that "price has to deflate back all the way" (which was either ~15 USD = price at beginning of the rally or ~30 USD = previous ATH). In reality, final capitulation was at ~60 USD, off by a factor of 2. * * * The current situation still fits into my own expectations... we went up pretty nicely over the last weeks, and with some extra force in the last few days, and I still consider it a real possibility that we're seeing an early end to the post-December peak bear market. On the other hand, we have what could be a (spread out) double top at 1070/1090, and there's also a real chance we're still going to go down much further. I'm not tempted to re-adjust my position quite yet. If we go through 890-900 (mtgox) *with force*, and close below it, I'm starting to get worried. Well, not really, but I would consider the "continued bear market" scenario more likely again. |
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Since I made that chart, i'll say use it with caution. If you make any trading decisions based on that chart you are on your own. It only contains data for part of the period, after the first large bubble in 2011. It also has to be expanded with a S-kind of ending at the top since it will obviously flatten out when saturation is reached. But it gives the best fit to the data for that time period -- under the assumption that a single function generated the data during the entire period.
Fixed Not attacking you, by the way, I appreciate your input. Just that it's a pet peeve of mine: pointing out that despite all the other assumptions (remove outliers or not?, which period to use for input?, exponential function? double exponential?), the assumption that it is exactly one function we're looking for is perhaps the biggest (simplifying) assumption of them all. Yes, I agree. It's the best "simple" function I have found that best represent the data in this period. I'm sure there is more to it than this. Maybe step functions and dampening underdamped oscillators could be added to have a more detailed description including the bubbles since there seems to be a time pattern to them. Some others have suggested steepening linear log functions ( http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=394221.0, and others stick to the full range linear function with monthly price averages (rpietila https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0). And maybe the double exponential plot suggested in my graph is even to conservative, only time will tell. It's meant as an input for debate. I've seen them both. gbianchi models price as a function of total no. of btc addresses unless I'm mistaken. Not totally dumb I'd say, but in the end, I'd bet no. of addresses and price are not independent. And rpietila is using the most "traditional" way of a log linear model (line of best fit) unless I'm mistaken. I strongly doubt that approach is useful for active trading, it's shown itself to be off by more a factor of 10 (!!!) at times. I understand the desire to find the *one* function that fits them all, but even trying to find a more complex function like an (under)damped oscillator is perhaps not the best way to go about it: I personally believe there is no way around the idea that, at different time periods, different functions govern btc price. The trick is of course to limit that number in a systematic way, and to avoid overfitting. |
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Ich meine was spricht dagegen nicht den Hauptwohnsitzt nach Thailand zu verlegen?  Absolut nichts. Die Thais haben einen König und Militär das hart gegen den Raff-Staat durchgreift, wenn es (mal wieder) notwendig ist. Beides fehlt in Deutschland. Freiheit ist genau so wichtig wie Demokratie. Ich halte mich als Deutscher in Deutschland aber natürlich an die Spielregeln, genauso wie ich mich in Thailand daran halten würde. Würde da nie rumlamentieren, nur weil das Militär eine unfähige Regierung wegputscht. Weg damit! Demokratisch gewählt hin oder her. So ein System mit einem eingebauten Notaus und einem König als Sicherung ist doch ein wahrer Segen. Und es funktioniert seit Jahrhunderten. Nicht zuletzt auch Dank des Buddhismus. Also Thailand wäre meine erste Wahl, ggf. gleich nach meiner Wiedergeburt. Ein super Land. trolling ? meinst du das ernst? ich frag lieber nochmal b4 ignore 4evar. Haha, ich glaube schon der meint das ernst. Aber das ist halt der Fluch und Segen zugleich, von Bitcoin (und dem Internet im allgemeinen)... es vereint die unterschiedlichsten Menschen und Ansichten. Kann manchmal frustrierend oder beängstigend sein (so wie z.B. das Zitat von oben), aber wie sagt man so schön "man kann sich seine Freunde nicht immer aussuchen") |
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