Downtrend started?

[Voodah]

My secret indicator says big move starting in the next 5 minutes... let's see.

[TERA]

My secret indicator says big move starting in the next 5 minutes... let's see.

It's that new law of physics made for bitcoin: "what doesn't go down, must come up".

[billyjoeallen]

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure price history is completely irrelevant right?

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

[T.Stuart]

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure price history is completely irrelevant right?

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. That's why looking at things on too small a scale is insane - there is too much chance involved.

But looking at history is in fact important for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get?

It is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!  

[arepo]

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

[arepo]

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.

i know it seems insane, but during tense "decision points" where the market decides whether or not to break a multi-week trendline, a 2-hour breakout can signal a reversal on larger scales.

[windjc]

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure price history is completely irrelevant right?

Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.

In the past the future of BTC was totally unknown. Danger lurked around every corner and chance events changed the price drastically. That's why looking at things on too small a scale is insane - there is too much chance involved.

But looking at history is in fact important for a different reason. Look at the whole picture, the bubbles coming closer together, the price constantly rising, and what do you get?

It is normal and logical to presume that the next "bubble" has already started. There has never been a level of general confidence in BTC like today - never. Hell, the US government was talking about banning it a year or two ago. BANNING!!! And BTC pulled through. But what is the US government saying now eh? And Wall Street? And e-commerce? etc. etc. etc.

Confidence is taking a quantum leap forward and this is why so many analysts will fail here. They cannot see past their calculations to feel the real market psychology right now, which is just as much based on maths as an argument with my wife is based on maths!!!  

You may very well be right. I have often had the same sentiments.

However, two things to note.

First your sentiment maybe over zealous as, even if it is true, there is a lag between bitcoin enthusiasm, innovation, development, fandom and fresh fiat into the exchanges.

Second, if you are right, you will never convince most that do TA, because in my experience, most who do TA on this forum do not feel that the current price of Bitcoin is justified. They have an opinion about what bicoin is really worth and a majority feel it is worth <$1000 today.  So they have no qualms about ignoring factors like you mentioned, because they have already made up their minds that they disagree.

Many of the people that do TA were around when BTC was worth $2 or $20 or $50. The further back someone goes, I find, generally the harder it is for them to justify the current price in their own minds.

[billyjoeallen]

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

[arepo]

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between...

--arepo

[billyjoeallen]

ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.

ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this.

The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias.

so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between...

--arepo

gut feeling is worthless. I only tried it twice. the last time was last weekend when I thought five days up was enough and I was counting on a weekend dip to pick up a coin on the cheap. that didn't work out so well. the time before that was in 2011 when I maxed out my credit cards and took a loan to buy at $6-$17/BTC. pretty happy I did that now.

[segeln]

Here is the Extension to 1/10/2014 of the up-trend since 12/18/2013

[arepo]

critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

[Bitbuy]

critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed )

[N12]

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

[arepo]

critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market.

gox and stamp decoupled again gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor...

Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation?
(sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed )

haha thanks but that doesn't really make me a 'trusted source' or anything of the like. i would recommend you thoroughly fact-check anything anyone says on these forums.

that being said, i have absolutely no clue perhaps the consolidation price at gox is lower compared to the bottom support so even though it isn't straying far it is actually threatening to break down, as well. bitstamp is really taking a tumble though it doesn't really add up...

i would trust bitstamp over gox, though, at this point. last night's shut-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-time-dump was realllly suspicious.

--arepo

[arepo]

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

[F-bernanke]

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.

[arepo]

Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.

but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends.

People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling.

yes i was thinking something like this. why even bother selling on gox? that is so absurd though it invalidates gox data by a serious degree...

[dnaleor]

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction? 

[oda.krell]

perma bulls, still convinced this is just a correction? 

well... I'm not a perma bull, but to answer your question it matters what you mean by "correction". the sub-correction to the smaller uptrend that started ~2 weeks ago, or the big correction to the december ATH. I mean, what's your motivation for the choice of time frame? Not that I take the following as evidence that the correction is over for sure, but here, have a larger broken downtrend in any case