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I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.
By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.
Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:
In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.
Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.
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Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.
Untrue. Enjoyed yours BTC EV analysis thread, do you have something similar for XMR? Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto: 1) $4000 billion 5% 2) $400 billion 15% 3) $40 billion 25% 4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit. 5) $400 million. 25% This is a very rough but useful classification. Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say: 1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1% 2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4% 3) 1% of the market (alive) 10% 4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR 5) 0% of the market (dead) 70% Now just go and do the numbers  ... I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome. By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR. Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly: In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money. Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV. |
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Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.
Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR  The reason to manipulate the ratio is to be able to buy low. The wall at 225k might be a legit offer to sell (albeit at a double price than today's market) but anything above that is irrelevant. Similarly, a huge amount in bids may be a warning sign. Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.
True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr. The thought may also go as follows: "1) If Polo is safe, XMR are safe and it does not really matter. If Polo is hacked, XMR there is lost, but the coin either 2) suffers a lethal blow that the value of all other XMR is lost as well and it does not really matter (even the attacker cannot sell the coins stolen) or 3) the value is reduced so much that it's possible to by the same amount back from the market at an insignificant BTC cost and it does not really matter. For a person operating in 6-7 figures, it's difficult to enter into a playing field so small where $100k makes you among the TOP-3 owners in the world, which is obviously crazy, and obviously available to one more person max, since when he starts to buy, the price starts to rise. |
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Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.
True. Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.
Untrue. |
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is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up  Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction. We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us. If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects. |
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What is interesting is that this technical pattern can still survive a fair amount of bear activity. The bears need to make a strong stand below 0.0009 to break the pattern.
It is funny that you apply technical analysis and EW analysis to something that is literally so small that one determined person without outlandish funds can easily prevent it from breaking 0.0009. Nevertheless, I believe the analysis is correct. Once everyone willing has sold their coins to that one person at the all-time low, yet the person is still ready to buy and price does not therefore go down, then it snaps up violently. |
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One of the novel concepts of Crypto Kingdom is gold. Admittedly, every virtual world game has gold, but Crypto Kingdom gold is very special. - Only a limited, rule-bound quantity of 1,000,000 gold exists, and even that number will only soon be fully mined. Once it is reached, new gold will be generated only very slowly, $0.025 worth per hour of playtime, to all players on equal terms. Unless the game hits thousands of players, the amount of new gold generated is insignificant. (If it does, the existing gold will nevertheless be very valuable, as you will soon see ->)- The ingame currency is not gold, we use monereto instead (1,000,000 m = 1 XMR). Gold is rather a store of wealth, currently accounting for 50%+ of all the wealth in the game. What makes gold valuable... - ... is not only the fact that there is a strictly limited amount of it, but also the fact that it is income-generating. Owning gold earns you money. This is possible because... - ... actually gold is a share. A limited-liability share of the Town, even of the whole game, even of the whole gaming company. Indeed, there exists no external company that is developing the game and requires profits from it. The game is governed in-game, by the town council, and the town council is selected by the owners of gold, and all profits that the Town = the game = the (nonexisting) "company" makes, are distributed back to the game, to the players, in proportion of the gold they own. - Of course it can be used ingame for decorative purposes etc., but even then, it still carries the full voting and staking rights, and is indestructible in applications. - So when you evaluate how gold has been doing over the time the game has been played, please remember also that the typical weekly dividend has been about 1-1.5% on the market price, and that until recently, gold also had an additional dividend of stone. Gold bought in the very beginning staked up to 1,000 stone, and if all of it were sold at the going price upon staking, an additional dividend stream of 150,000 m per gold was obtainable. That alone has earned back most of the price paid.  |
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The industrious people in Crypto Kingdom have built wonderful structures from the stone that originally was brought to the town by the peasants as "gold staking". Later it was bought from the peasants for money, which they in turn squandered in the nascent town's services establishments. Starting from the 1520s, the most daring industrialists among the players, have engaged in quarrying the stone. In addition to stone, the building requires a plan, a graphic representation of the room arrangements, and the facade. Also, a sum of money goes to the laborers, depending on the detail involved. Finally, until very recently, all windows have needed to be imported, as well as a part of the Luxuries that make the building special, adding to the monetary cost. The total cost of construction is a function of all the design decisions, and it may be as low as 200,000 moneretos per sqm, but in the most magnificent buildings even a million is not enough. Therefore, the cheapest single family homes are for sale for 25 million including land, while the landmark buildings carry a price tag of up to 2,000 million (not including land), and are not for sale. The cornerstone of the Town was laid in 1430, only 15 days after the idea of the game was first conceived. The initial building project was the Old City Walls, framing the area now known as the Old Town Centre and King's Park. These are still the most prestigious and most expensive chapelries in the town, with hardly any land for sale at any price. The second project was the Obelisk, which was later gilded with gold donated by the people. The Obelisk and the Royal Palace are the only two Most Esteemed buildings in existence. Later on, the pace of building has only increased, so that at present, 84,174 sqm of floor area is serving the various needs of the 88 PC/corporate characters and the 1,599 NPC servants and workers employed by them. Most of this glory has not yet been visible to anyone except the architects of these beautiful buildings. But it will change soon as the Online game will be released. In total, 40,406 million moneretos (40,406 XMR) has been expended in the construction of these buildings. It is estimated that designing them has taken 640 hours of virtual architect labor. The chart shows the increase of the land area over time. 1430 = 2014-10-25.  |
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It's now 15k XMR per day, which is $3,000. It's $100k per month, and barely absorbed. But when things change, they change quickly. As I've been saying, one person getting interested will turn the tables |
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Crypto Kingdom goes startupCryptoKingdom the game is now on the cusp of its most important and crucial time. The final touches to the Online version are being made, and also the year 1600 is soon approaching, with its changes to the gameplay. The environment has been challenging, and the very latest times have shown a clear decline in the game activity. It seems that most everyone is waiting for the changes to happen. Let me tell you: The changes do not happen without our active participation. This has been a new type of game development process with its ingame crowdfunding and organic feature development. That must continue, but in addition, now we need some determined and goal-oriented action to complete the transition. In other words: work. Work is no play, and therefore the royal gold vault as well as the Town development fund of 15,000 XMR are now opened to contract deals related to design, development, data conversion, tutorial writing, bugtesting, etc. If you are eager to see our game blossom, and have time and some skill in your hands, now is an unprecedented opportunity to actually profit. Contact me I am proud to present to you the following information: Marquess Riccardo has been appointed to General Project Manager ("CEO" of the "game company" - we don't have a company though). I will continue to be the Lead Designer, the Gamemaster (lead admin), the King and Mayor. The change will release some of my time for these duties, and provide a better integration of the google game with the online game. The Marquess is already in charge of the online version technical development. The Marquess has been appointed Councillor.Dame Roopatra has been appointed to General Administrator. Her new responsibilities include working as my right-hand woman in all the matters related to the administration of the economic/DB side of the game. She may have time to do her previous duties of BI & Architect as well, but it's likely that she will have to raise the prices. The Countess is promoted AOK-C and gifted a mahogany staff overlaid with 500 gold. Prince Jacket has been promoted AOK-S, and gifted the chain and bracelet weighing 250 gold. The Prince has been appointed Councillor.We are looking for a Marketing Coordinator, an approximately half-time job for planning and executing the marketing strategy. We are considering both existing players and professionals in the field. Contact Marquess Riccardo (fluffypony). We have a tentative understanding concerning the next steps with the game. We are putting on hold some of the economy side developments. We are reverting to the original schema of 1 Ancients - first online version, 2 Sandbox - more playable stuff in the online, 3 Economy - all the stuff we now have in the google version, by focusing on the 1/2 for mass appeal, and implement 3 when the playercount is already on the rise. Instead of a sandbox relying on players to develop content, we will jumpstart using our API to add tipbots and dicegames by ourselves. The Ancient era will be played to its conclusion with the current players, and we are ready to take more Ancient ones to the google version. This is a prime time to jump in and get a character with esteemed capabilities, and/or buy the game assets (gold, land etc.) at their current low prices. This way you not only help yourself, but also the game, to manage the additional spending. I am not ashamed to call it an investment if you can buy 1% of the gold for $500 or a whole chapelry of land in the 1st perimeter from the old town for $200. If we are required to actually do fundraising, be assured that the valuation will be set to a higher level. The price of building has gone down to about 1/3 of what it was when we started. Not much has been built lately, in the anticipation of solving the uncertainty concerning the online game, and the great earthquake that is set to destroy 50% of the value of the buildings in 1600. I am happy to announce that 1) the uncertainty is quickly fading away and that 2) the buildings constructed between 1583-1599 receive all the status of Ancient buildings, yet are immune to any calamities of that fateful year. Both me and Roopatra and maybe others are back on duty to design any beautiful buildings that you still want erected during the final years of the Ancient era. The new building cost calculator should be online shortly. Town Council meeting is on Thursday at the appointed time, new councillors welcome to decide on the actual stuff. TL;DR: I am more enthusiastic than ever on what's happening in the game. Hope you will join us! |
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Why are people still posting in a thread that was created by a known troll? Check out his previous posts.
We should not be acknowledging him or his accusations. He is king troll.
The thread is among the good ones. Every time we post good stuff to it, the OP is further embarrassed. Out of bad intentions, a wonderful triumph has come! Do you still believe in 1mm per coin? aint that mentally ill? I believed in $1000 coins when it was $20. Slander was exactly the same back then. (If you seriously want to know what I believe or do not, this post shows that on average, I believe that we are at $13,000 or so in 5 years, although the variance is great) |
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Why are people still posting in a thread that was created by a known troll? Check out his previous posts.
We should not be acknowledging him or his accusations. He is king troll.
The thread is among the good ones. Every time we post good stuff to it, the OP is further embarrassed. Out of bad intentions, a wonderful triumph has come! |
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There seems to have been nothing reported from this secret meeting. I wonder what they hoped to accomplish?
Well, I reported on my small part. It is notable that I was perhaps the least connected (to the other participants) member there, so for me the priorities were biased to getting to know people, instead of accomplishing a specific objective. |
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Crypto Kingdom goes startupCryptoKingdom the game is now on the cusp of its most important and crucial time. The final touches to the Online version are being made, and also the year 1600 is soon approaching, with its changes to the gameplay. The environment has been challenging, and the very latest times have shown a clear decline in the game activity. It seems that most everyone is waiting for the changes to happen. Let me tell you: The changes do not happen without our active participation. This has been a new type of game development process with its ingame crowdfunding and organic feature development. That must continue, but in addition, now we need some determined and goal-oriented action to complete the transition. In other words: work. Work is no play, and therefore the royal gold vault as well as the Town development fund of 15,000 XMR are now opened to contract deals related to design, development, data conversion, tutorial writing, bugtesting, etc. If you are eager to see our game blossom, and have time and some skill in your hands, now is an unprecedented opportunity to actually profit. Contact me Important update
List of updates for the 1600 A.D. version with schedule coming
It is one month to go until 1600, which will greatly change the game dynamics, because the time is passing only one month per real-day (and may be moved to pass continuously instead of stepwise). The Town Council is discussing about which features we need/want to keep up with the story. We are in a position to launch some in advance, to make their balancing easier and keep the design workflow constant. We are moving to the new player acquisition phase gradually. At present we want both investors who see the opportunity to capture a several % stake of the game with a few $1,000 investment (so even less is a big money!), and entry level players willing to play for free and see what they can achieve (Currently the highest "free" player is in L10 - Countess, the 13th most senior PC in the game). The current DB easily supports 5 times the number of PC we have now (assuming most of them start small, and a percentage gets hooked over the first weeks as is already observed). If we actually do get this number, the DB can be protected so that its life is extended. It has served us reasonably well in its first incarnation, and the current "entry row form + SUMIF/VLOOKUP" structure. There is a further possibility to move to macros and "actual" forms to add/edit data in the DB (with no direct access to change the data by anyone, improving security), but we don't expect that this will be needed any more due to the change to the custom DB that has been under development for 3 months and is in the finishing stage. We want to spare no effort to make the game accessible to new players. While saying this, it remains a fact that the large masses can only start to be interested when the v. 4 Online is playable. It is free to register now, just contact any of the admins who take your minimum character info, and start to immediately earn money. ##crypto-kingdom @ freenode IRC is the way to get more info. Culture
HH The Duke of New Liberty is awarding culture points daily to players who interact in the chat, in this thread, or anywhere. Being Cultured is a main way to gain a higher level and (for example) higher payouts as well. Science
The Science production in the realm has increased greatly, and in just a few years we have enough science to unlock the "crown glass windows making" technology. This will be monopolized by the RWWC company, to grant monopoly profits to its shareholders for the foreseeable future. It is also possible to buy shares of this company in its IPO now, and probably never again. Browse back the thread for details. New boroughs opened
The /OV1 tab shows the location of the new boroughs in a rudimentary map. Borough 4 is the first one where the Town fulfills its promise of giving land strictly free, with no payment to the town, and no tax. It is a little interesting, though  See the special rules in /OV4. Borough 5 does not have special rules, and has some quarry sites where the companies who see their reserves depleting, can relocate their production. Land here is sold per chapelry, at a decreasing ask price (Dutch auction), until it settles to 1,000 mil per chapelry (6.67 mil/q). In addition, the Town will possibly soon list the roadside for sale at about 20-40/q and backyard at 10-20/q. Surprise move by the peasants regarding stone
The peasants have decided that both they and we have enough stone that they can deliver the whole of the remaining stone staking by gold ownership in one go. This added more than 20 million stone to the reserves, but it's unlikely that it will much affect the price, since the stone was not anyway going to be consumed in the next 30 years. So gold is no more generating any stone, and there is no asymmetric staking. It generates moneretos as it has already done for weeks, and now is technically easy to be listed in the trading systems of Polonia if we and they so wish. (Our currency, moneretos, is commonly used in that land, and staking in this way is none of a problem, rather an encouragement for them to try and buy CKG as well). Stone is now localized by borough, transport costs
Until now, it has been easy to use stone that is located nearest to the site of building, and just transfer the ownership on parchment. This was the invention of the Earl of Rome in 1434. In the 1400s, the stone was stored in a great heap in the Central Square, but due to Grand Hotel complaints, it was moved to area in and around Citadel. Now it may be that the construction site is so far from even the nearest stone that it needs to be transported. Even if the road is good (and double so if not), this is a costly procedure since our buildings consume enormous amounts of stone. The University alone, was 50 million kg of stone. Luckily that was right next to the Citadel and the heaps. But hauling the stone to the 4th borough (where quarrying is not possible locally) understandably has a cost. Details can be found in the new tabs T_STONE and STONE (the old tabs are discontinued): Promotions
The Prince of New Liberty is created Duke. "Our goal has been to have 100,000 players, of whom about 0.05% would eventually attain the title of Duke and the corresponding level L13, the highest regular title in the game (there is L14 existing, but its use has not been codified yet due to it not being needed). Everyone knows that His Highness The Duke (only Dukes are entitled to the honorific HH, and the address Your Highness) is a pillar of our town, kingdom and world. His plans of building a 52 quadrat project in the Old Town dwarfs the (so far the largest building complex) The University Main Building by a factor of 2. His economic empire is perhaps the largest in the game. It may sound to others that becoming a Duke after such an example shows that it is impossible, but the target remains for 50 Dukes to be created in connection of getting the first 100,000 players  His Highness' most outstanding virtues are still not his ability to build big and make money, but the helping of the poorest and smallest, with a kind heart, and remarkable steadfastness in the IRC." The Marquess of North Face is promoted Prince. "His Excellency The Prince is among the largest owners and operators of everything, including being top-rated in both Culture and Science, CEO of the Most Ancient Grand Hotel, as well as other businesses. His ascent to highest echelons of the game has been methodological and effective, and he has demonstrated magnanimousness in his endeavours as well as perhaps the keenest business sense of all." Lord Paulson is created Earl. "Sir Pablo has served decades as Councillor and tried his skill in many aspects of the game. Although we find his benevolence lacking in monetary terms, he is making it up with a neverending stream of proposals how to administrate and develop the game. Also he is one of the most cultured people around, due to the bold and groundbreaking decision to open the first $$$$$$ restaurant, El Bulli, in the town." Lord HH is created Earl. "Sir Heimo has reached the statutory 60 days of ownership of 10,000 gold. During this time, the price of gold has risen 145%, notwithstanding the about 13% dividends plus stone staking." drfred is ennobled (L9=Baron). "We withheld this gold-based promotion a long time due to the previous rule of also needing clothes to become a Baron. This rule is no longer applied so 4,000 gold is making Lord drfred a Baron, and we will deal with the clothes issue later when the Trollboxes require the oldtimers to use fitting clothes to distinguish them from the visitors."
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lol. And then they'd probably 'diagnose' you as a conspiracy theorist or something. Seen it happen many times.
So many of the past decades' "conspiracy theories" have now been admitted by the conspirators (the elected or non-elected authorities of western countries). If anything, the thought that similar activities would not be going as we speak, even if they are sometimes denied by the perpetrators, should be classified as clinical gullibility, and people denying them should be exposed to some serious training in common logic. Otherwise such people (the ones that deny the ongoing stuff derogatory labeled as conspirationist) will present a danger to the ones whose worldview is based on proof, logic and truth. |
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I am on the opinion that this presents a very low risk/good upside entry point, regardless of the intended timeframe of the investment. Of course such investments should be made with a 5-10 year timeframe, and with equity that "you can afford to lose".
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Good stuff never dies. I did the exponential trendline analysis for the first time in some time. The presentation of the graphics is still not my strong area so please ask for the graphs with instructions. I have them but don't know how to transfer them here  - The trendline has been revised down in each of the recalculations (I did one every 2-3 months). The trendline price is $3,210 (cf. it would have been $6,000 if the year-ago trend were extrapolated). - Until 7/2014, the trendline R^2 got better all the time, peaking at 0.9353. Since 7/2014, the R^2 has been getting lower and is now 0.9246. The linear fit in exponential chart is no more the best fit. Eg. the 3rd degree polynomial y = -0,000000x3 + 0,000002x2 + 0,001635x - 2,740811 gives the R^2 = 0.9480. This trendline shows its apex in the latter part of 2014, and is now in decline. - The variation from the exponential trend that was contained at [-0.6, 0.5] units log ever since autumn-2011, is now broken and we are at -1,13 currently. We have never been this low, because the trend was only established a few months after Mt.Gox opened in 2010, and initially we were all the time above the trend. - Absent all fundamental considerations (mainly: recognition, adoption, tx number and volume, trade volume, acceptance, economy size, VC investment - which all point to a continuing uptrend) it is possible that the exponential uptrend is broken. - Considering all fundamental considerations, and the fact that regardless of the trendline we choose, we are currently well below it, the situation now is favorable to go long instead of short. |
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No updates?
CK was featured in Satoshi Roundtable, which was the event important enough that the "sun stood still for 7 years". Since that, the time has started to move again In 1600 (in about 3 weeks), a major rehaul is coming once again (the last one was in 1550, just a month ago). Currently we are coordinating it with the online version. The duty to update concerning the advances in the technical development side is on fluffypony. I have not much to add to the "sneak peek on 1600", published in the thread a few weeks ago. The most important change today is probably the soakbot, which they have been installing to the IRC channel. |
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Updated all.
The Monero House in Crypto Kingdom has amassed a fortune of 250 XMR. Now since the house is located in an extremely good spot, I am voting for spending the money to the expansions first (currently it has 1-2 floors instead of the 6 maximum), which would enable sending the much increased income to the devs. |
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