Also, if you sold below $20k and you did not buy back, you will be ready to buy some of dee cornz below $20k..

just saying..

not financial advice...

 

Very well said indah rezqi.  It is possible to prepare for both (either) BTC price directions at the same time and even extremes, including that we should be putting less preparations into lower probability events, even though we should attempt to prepare for even extremes and what we consider to be lower probability events, and a lot of people seem to have difficulties with those kinds of ideas that allow for the preparation for a large number of scenarios, including what we consider to be lower probability events while at the same time, not overly focusing or preparing for such lower probability events.


Fuck shitcoins.  We are only talking about bitcoin in this thread.  

All other coins have decently high odds of going to zero, so you cannot use the same kinds of investment strategies when dealing with shitcoin (including all altcoins, ethereum or whatever happens to be your other favorite shitcoin).. and sure if you want to debate about the value of shitcoins or which shitcoin might be less shitty, then you need to take that to some other thread.. because there are some shitcoin believers, even in this forum, and they have threads for their discussions regarding which shitcoin is less shitty.


You may be correct, but you may have blinders on.

There is a non-zero chance that bitcoin could go to zero, and surely it is not easy to figure out how high of odds that should be, but we also have the Lindy effect going on with bitcoin, which also contributes to its likely ongoing continuance to exist and that it becomes less likely to go to zero the longer that it exists.

I doubt that it is "everyone's wish" that bitcoin's price falls, unless you do not have enough coins.. if you are a low coiner or a no coiner, then perhaps you are wishing for the price to fall.  If you are a new coiner, then you also might be wishing for the BTC price to fall, but you can ONLY wish for the price to fall by so much before you might start to lose confidence in its ability to go back up or start to believe that something might be wrong with bitcoin's investment thesis.

Sure if the BTC price goes down, then people might buy more BTC, but the mere fact that people buy more BTC does not necessarily mean that they are wishing for the BTC price to go down.

There is likely some factual truth to your claim that "most people wish for BTC prices to go down," which is that an overwhelming majority of the world's population - perhaps quite greater than 95% do not have any coins at all, so they might not feel any kind of wish for the BTC price to go up.

So those of us who buy BTC and who have accumulated BTC are in the overwhelming minority.. and sure there are some of us who have not had enough time (or income) to be able to buy as many bitcoin (sats) as they would like to buy.. so some of those people might be wishing for the BTC price to fall in order that they can get some more, and perhaps you, WatChe, are part of that group of insufficiently stacked ongoing stackers.


Perhaps? 

That, again, is a individually dependent circumstance that is going to vary depending how long someone might have been into bitcoin and perhaps how much time they might have spent learning about bitcoin, and actually figuring out that it is different from shitcoins... some people get distracted, and they believe that they are learning about bitcoin but instead they are learning about how to be dumb... and they falsely believe that they are learning about bitcoin.. Such attraction (and luring) into dumbness happens to even relatively smart people.


Keep wishing... and have fun staying poor.


Why are you guided by such nonsense?

You should have a personal plan that it is not dependent upon what a bunch of dummies think.

Have you heard of the 200 week moving average, and do you know what it means?

We are currently at $26,665... maybe you should think about that and formulate your plans and actions in accordance with something more meaningful?



Well don't buy on the dip then.  Just DCA.  Have you heard about DCA?

Actually the better strategy is to combine DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing, but if you are all screwed up, then maybe you should go back to the basics and figure out your own finances so that you are not over investing, and start with DCA first, and then you can advance to more advanced strategies of buying on dip and lump sum buying at later points down the road, once you get a bit more comfortable with your own finances and how to figure out how much to buy on a regular basis and perhaps how much to hold in reserves (if you want to keep some in reserves for buying BTC on dips). 

Have you been dabbling in shitcoins too?  Show us where the shitcoins have touched you?  If you have been dabbling into shitcoins, then you are likely even more distracted, and your funds to invest into bitcoin have been diluted too... so  sometimes there might be some needs to get some focus so that you can figure out your own finances, psychology and your own bitcoin plan and how accumulating bitcoin fits into your life, and maybe after you spend several years accumulating bitcoin and studying the matter, then it will start to become more clear why it is the case that a person who has spent a decent amount of time accumulating bitcoin is no longer wishing for downity in dee price of dee cornz.

By the way, regarding your "big balls" comment, I doubt that the balls need to be as BIG as you are suggesting to be ready, willing and able to buy on dips... but hey maybe BIG dips vary depending how much they are and how much they are expected, and if the persons might have already used up most if not all of their fiat buying at earlier stages in the dippening process.

Edit: By the way, I see Ivomm gave you a merit on your post, and he is likely in a similar situation where he fucked up his BTC accumulation strategy, and even though he knows a lot of about bitcoin, he ended up gambling too much and fucking around with trying to rush his bitcoin accumulation process, and therefore  he ended up getting reckt by selling too early and then failing to buy.. so know he is also like you, wishing for downity prices.


I am at a loss for words.. aw shucks.   




I am not sure what to think about your post Agbe.  You are suggesting that you agree, but at the same time, you can see BTC prices going below $10k in 5-6 years.

Wow...  do you understand BTC?


Do you remember that BTC was at $250 for nearly the whole of 2015?   Do you expect it to go back there?  or below $1k?

$10k becomes like $250.. or it becomes like $1k.  It becomes more and more improbable that the BTC price will go there, ever... and even $30k. .it is possible that the BTC price will never go below $30k again.. even though surely at the moment, we can presume the odds are pretty high that the BTC price will go below $30k again, since it was just there a couple of hours ago....

But look in my post above, there are people waiting for sub $20k, and sure $20k this year may have slightly higher odds than $10k last year, but they may well fall within a similar area of probability in terms of being in the low likely territory - even though there seem to be several guys wishing/waiting  for those kinds of BTC price levels and may well be failing/refusing to buy BTC until the price gets down to those levels, which again may end up creating losers (and bitterness).. just like there were losers and bitterness that came out of the early 2017 wish (expectation) for sub $500 prices.. that never ended up happening and $800-ish was our BTC price bottom for early 2017.. even though there were sure a lot of smart people expecting sub $500 prices at that time.

In the end, you seem to be assigning higher odds than me that bitcoin could go to zero, but hey, I am not even confident in my own method of assigning any kind of a tangible number and trying to figure out potential attack vectors (or reasons that bitcoin might go to zero), and I am not even sure if it is necessary to outline a variety of scenarios beyond acknowledging that there is some kind of a non-zero chance that bitcoin could end up either going to zero or even going into a kind of marginal status that it does not continue to attract value to it.. beyond a niche group of people.

Pathetic.

 

Just think about how many BTC that you might have had if you had been stacking in the last year gallianooo - rather than wishing for the BTC price to drop below $10k?

What could have had been?  What could have had been?

And also, I saved you from losing even more BTC by refusing to enter into your dumbass supposed bet for the quantity of BTC that you had suggested that you wanted.. even if we might presume that you were actually serious / genuine about entering into a bet rather than just trolling and talking nonsense.

but hey maybe you do happen to know about taxes in Portugal in regards to an asset that you don't really have much of any.. (relatively speaking).


 

Sucks to be uie-pooie, no?

It's a decently good example, and it even shows that BIG players will frequently have to go through a kind of process in which it takes time to become profitable, even when MSTR/Saylor started out as profitable with his first purchases for himself and for his company to be in the $10k price territory.. but they continued to buy, and even bought really large amounts in the $50k arena.. which surely brought their costs per BTC up a lot.


In regards to lessening or stopping your buys when the BTC price is above $30k, I am not sure if that specific idea is good - even though surely there can be some value in terms of buying more BTC on price dips and perhaps buying less BTC when it surges up in price a lot.. but then there becomes a question regarding whether the current price (or above $30k should be considered a surge, or what might be a fair characterization of supra $30k prices these days).  

Buying on dips is good and perhaps you can try to strategize in order to not be buying on the extreme price rises and then just waiting for further dips; however, if the price goes above certain price points, and then does not end up dipping sufficiently to satisfy your later "buys on dips", then what are you going to do?  especially if you might have cash regularly coming in, then where are going to put that extra cash?  just let it build up?  or maybe you end up panic buying at much higher prices?  Maybe you allow your cash reserves to build up to a certain point and then rethink the matter?  that would not be a bad approach.

In the end, you are the person who is in the best position to figure out how to deal with your own BTC portfolio and to figure out the extent to which you have enough BTC.. and whether it matters if some of your BTC purchases continue to be higher than previous buys.

Part of the ongoing measure of bitcoin's value has to do with the bottom ongoingly moving up with the passage of time, and personally I consider the 200-week moving average to be a very good bottom indicator, even though we did have some unprecedented times in which it was breached for considerable amounts of time in the last year-ish.  

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

So in terms of BTC value, $30k now is not the same as $30k one year ago, and currently we are barely above the 200-week moving average, which is now at $26,665. For sure, there are no guarantees that the 200-week moving average will continue to serve a decently good bottom indicator, so you have to come to your own determinations regarding whether you believe that you need to slow down your DCA and/or your BTC accumulation based on current prices, with perhaps overly greedy thoughts that you might be able to buy cheaper.. and surely you might not be able to because bitcoin tends to be a very good buy when it is at below or even within 20-30% of the 200-week moving average.  

For example, in May/June 2022 when a lot of the disasters of our then over-leveraged  (and gambling scamming twats) were being revealed, the 200-week moving average was ONLY in the $21k to $22k price arena, so if you thought that buying below $30k was a good value, in May/June 2022, $30k would have had been around 40% above the then 200-week moving average, and currently $30k is ONLY around 12.5% above the 200-week moving average.

So you are in dangerous (and maybe even out of touch irrational territories?) if you are wedding yourself (and your ideas) to strict thinkings of absolute BTC price thresholds (like $30k) rather than attempting to consider your price thresholds in terms of a somewhat more solid bottom indicator, which I would consider the 200-week moving average to be decently good (even though moving target) of a solid bottom (good value) indicator.

I do agree with the idea of incremental selling rather than trying to sell too much at once, and it has been my practice to expect that any time that I sell, I may well not be able to buy those BTC back, so in that regard, my sale levels tend to be so small that they do not constitute a vary large portion of my BTC holdings - in other words, I am selling profits ONLY and ONLY a small portion of the profits.

Let's say for example that I have accumulated 1 BTC, and my average cost per BTC is $10k, so I am sufficiently in profits right now, so if the BTC price goes up from $30k to $33k, I have a 10% price appreciation, and I have $3k of extra profits in there, so maybe I might be willing to take 1% of my holdings off of the table, and I decide to sell 0.01 BTC which is $330, and if the price goes back down below $30k, then maybe I will buy back the .01 BTC that I sold, but if the BTC price never goes back below $30k then I am content to having had sold the 0.01
 BTC amount that I sold at $33k, even if the BTC price then goes up to $40k and never comes back down below $40k - and if the price keeps going up, then probably i will continue to have those kinds of small sales of my BTC, and 1% of my holdings becomes a higher and higher value even though my BTC holdings is continuing to go down little by little. 

Not everyone is in a sufficiently good position to be selling his/her BTC on the way up, and perhaps having 1BTC is not enough to feel that you are able to sell any, and maybe if you have 1 BTC, then you might want to just continue to buy, and don't be thinking about selling any BTC until either you get up to a higher quantity of BTC or BTC prices reach such a level that you are starting to feel o.k. about shaving off some BTC at various price increments on the way up.  Those kinds of threshold considerations (regarding when to sell and how much to authorize yourself to sell) are likely going to be different for each person depending upon his/her personal financial and psychological circumstances.


You are free to think about bitcoin however you like Davian144; however to me it appears that your mental framework is not correct... because you seem to want to accumulate BTC, but you believe that selling BTC is a decently acceptable strategy in terms of accumulating more BTC - and I think that is wrong thinking.

Personally, I think that it is way better to merely consider various ways to ongoingly buy BTC until you get to a level of BTC that you believe is sufficient for your circumstances, and sure you can try to time the dip, lump sum buy and DCA, and that is likely a much more assured way to continue to accumulate more and more and more BTC, whether the cost of the BTC is high or low.. after a while (maybe it takes several years?) you are likely to be in profits and perhaps even very good profits, without the risk of fucking around with selling in order to buy back cheaper - which seems a fool's game - especially for anyone who has goals to accumulate BTC - and appreciate that it is valuable to accumulate BTC, even if some of the BTC might cost more than others and even if the dollar value of your BTC holdings might not seem to be going up as quickly as you would like.

High volatility does not automatically mean high risk.  

In my comment to lizarder, I was likely quibbling in regards to his use of absolute terms in regards to suggesting that in the long term bitcoin does not have risk, so I was presenting some scenarios in which bitcoin spiraling downward would constitute risks that could happen, even if it is a low probability of such spiraling to zero to happen, but it is not a zero probability as lizarder's comment would have suggested.

Accordingly, I largely agree with lizarder's point that bitcoin is likely on an upward trajectory in the long term, and also your assertion that bitcoin is going to continue to be quite highly volatile along the way, but I would not conclude that bitcoin is "high risk" - because any of us should be able to off-set our own level of risk by position size and also tailing our accumulation and holding of BTC to our own personal circumstances.  In other words, we could contribute towards bitcoin becoming high risk in the way that we structure our buys, especially if we fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for bitcoin's seemingly inevitable ongoing high volatility.

There are a lot of people who likely perceive bitcoin to be high risk due to its high volatility, but they also deem bitcoin to be high risk because they either do not know what it is and/or they believe the bullshit misinformation that is propagated about it.


I agree with you here.


I tend to NOT like the examples of the guy who bought at or near all time high, and then just sits on his hands for a number of years, even though I understand the point that you are making Inwestour, which is that even those BTC purchases that were made at or near all time high have decently good chances of becoming profitable in the coming 5-10 years.. and perhaps (likely I would suggest) they will even be profitable in light of the likely ongoing decreasing value of the dollar (or whatever other fiat currency that you might be using as your measurement).  

Another consideration is that if someone had started buying BTC with a DCA approach at or near the ATH in mid-November 2021, then that person would still be in profits right now. For example someone buying $100 per week starting from mid-November 2021 have spent a total of $8,500, and s/he would have 0.3352 BTC - which would have a current market spot price value of $10,125 (based on a current BTC price of $30k), and the longer that the person has been in bitcoin, then the more likely that the amount of profits would be higher.  Of course, no guarantees in regards to how the long to medium term is going to play out, but there is a lot of value that seems to come from consistently buying BTC, even if there might be some lump sum investing and buying on dips that complement a DCA approach that focuses on ongoing accumulation over the long term. and perhaps even some moderation in the BTC buying approach in order to NOT overly extend yourself in regards to continuing to want to account for your own expenses, including potential emergency expenses.. which everyone likely has from time to time.

It seems that I agree with everything in your post, lizarder.. except I am a wee bit confused by the points that you seem to be making at the beginning of this responsive paragraph.. and you seem to be suggesting that bitcoin does not have any risk so long as you allocate in such a way that is in accordance with your own situation - but still, I am bothered by the idea that bitcoin would not be a risk - even though I agree with the overall idea that the level of risk is largely a matter of allocation levels....

so for example, most of the longer term bitcoiners realize that bitcoin is almost completely a non-correlated asset, even though it sometimes will correlate with various other assets for short (and even seemingly relatively longer periods of time), but the essence of the matter remains that bitcoin is a new kind of a paradigm shifting asset class that is not correlated to existing asset classes, and part of the reason for its not correlation likely is due to its ongoing early stages of adoption that may well take 10 to 150 years or maybe even longer for it to become a mature asset class.

Part of my contention with your suggestion that bitcoin is never a risk, remains any scenario in which bitcoin might go to zero.. or even spiral to zero over 10 or 20 years... which are non-zero possibilities.. even if many of us consider such possibilities of bitcoin going to zero (or spiraling to zero) to be quite low probability situations... maybe in the fractions of a percentage type of assignment of probabilities, like perhaps less than a 0.01% odds or may even lower, though it becomes quite difficult to assign odds when we are getting into sub 1% territories and maybe not even being able to figure out all of the knowns and the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns...and not even saying that I have closely gone through such a process beyond relying on representations from others and also some of my own hunches rather than facts or informed theories/scenarios.

Why do people do this?

They say:  "my country" and they expect everyone to either know what country is being talked about or we have to go back to your various other posts to try to figure out which country you are talking about (like a puzzle).  

It's a bit annoying.. and if you don't want to say that it is your country, then just name the country.. or maybe a group of countries that you might believe (or have knowledge) to be similar or something to specify.. it would be less annoying to be able to see what country you are talking about without my having to do a bunch of work to try to solve the puzzle that you set forth..   which could even mean that it is gobbledy-gook on purpose?

Oh gawd    now you are distracting (or is it called deflecting) by making shit up... and assigning various "wo peeps" (perhaps including yours truly) to the counter position..

so that you can be even more correct... when you become correct.. .you really want to be correct,

¿amInotrite?

 


What's more huggable than a wannabe nostradamus?  Do you even know?

This guy's pretty huggable:

So it seems to the case that anyone who is half way intelligent should be able to recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is an asset class that is not correlated to other asset classes; however, even half way intelligent people are either not spending enough time to actually look into bitcoin or they may well be mislead by various mainstream media accounts (garbage superficial misinformation) that is being spread about.. and it takes a certain level of "looking into the matter" maybe between 20 hours and 100 hours depending on the person, in order to really start to grock how bitcoin is differentiated (and therefore a new paradigm shifting discovery/invention) from nearly all other asset classes.. a kind of investors dream to have a non-correlated asset - even though still if people invest, they still have to figure out the allocation level that they would like to assign to bitcoin as compared to other assets that they hold (and for any prudent/reasonably informed person, the answer should not be zero).


They surely might not have had assigned an appropriate allocation level, so if the answer is to get off zero, but don't necessarily over do it (or you do not have to over do it), then the answer should attempt to lead people towards figuring out a level that is sufficiently enough for them, whether it is 1% or 25% or some where between, and if they are going outside of those bounds, then they likely need to have had studied even more.. but any beginner with 20 to 100 hours of study into bitcoin, should be able to figure out an allocation level that lands somewhere between 1% and 25% and then figure out how to tailor how to get there in regards to their own particular circumstances.

My suggestion tends to be to DCA once you establish your accumulation target level, but of course, you can also supplement DCA with buying on dips and lump sum investing.. which likely take a bit more knowledge than a more strict DCA approach... a more strict DCA approach would largely just entail figuring out your own budget to such a level that you are able to feel comfortable dedicating a certain level of cash flow on a regular basis, whether that is $100 per week, or $10 per week or some other amount and frequency that has been determined to be sufficiently acceptable as the person will likely also continue to learn while investing into bitcoin and likely pay more attention week after week if they are increasing in their stake into bitcoin, even if it might seem to be a kind of small amount (especially in the beginning weeks and even years but the ongoing investment into bitcoin may well start to add up with the passage of time)... and if these strategies are set with some semblances of moderation, then there should be no reason to be panicking about your investment or even viewing such investment as a "disaster" or a "calamity".

Sucks to be "us"...

Lonely in these here parts.

 

Depends on when you start... if you are just starting, it could take a while... that's why "we" say, get started as soon as possible.


Yeah.. because they are retarded.


There goes memories..

fleeting into the wind.


The thing is that whales (or people/institutions) with already good sized investments into other things (including cash) have options to fuck around with lump sum investing, but if you are a normie, you don't necessarily have lump sums available to you, so you gotta work with what uuu's gots.. not working with what someone else might gots.


Yeah, but who cares?  what's the punchline?  Are you going to sell BTC in order to try to buy back more?  unless you been into BTC for a while, selling to buy back more is not smart... and the better strategies have to do with ongoingly buying BTC in order to accumulate more BTC (aka stack more sats).. and start early and stay persistent until you gots ur lil selfie enuff cornz.

There's an apt expression that has to deal with time in the market is more important than timing the market.


Wat a wishfowl widdo fellar uie R. 

If you keep saying it, then maybe it will come true... #justsaying.

Trading advice?

Long bitcoin.. I don't know about those intermediary products.. handle at your own risk.. bitcoin is risky enough.. why get into shitcoins?

Oh yeah, the topic of this thread happens to be MSTR related, and sure there is one thing to trade or buy stocks, and there is another thing to consider your own bitcoin allocation (and perhaps refrain from getting involved in those kinds of stocks) based on various information involving what some of the BIG players are doing (and maybe what they are saying?).

But many of us were into bitcoin before these new entrant BIGGER players.. even though GBTC has been an offered product since about 2014..

Some people, institutions and kinds of funds cannot hold BTC directly, but as individuals we can hold BTC directly... which surely seems to be a bit of a better product than the various kinds of products that may or may not be playing loosey-goosey with the coins that they hold.  If we are already able to get exposure to bitcoin by holding the underlying (and managing our holdings of the underlying), do we find any value to be playing around with various kinds of other ways to get price exposure to bitcoin (yes, some of the BIG players can ONLY get exposure like that, as fillippone describes) - so another level of complexity regarding whether any of us should be playing that kind of a stock stacking game..beyond directly stacking sats through our own various methods of DCA, buying on dip and lump sum purchases.  No?

Each of us is responsible for our own choices regarding how to go about these kinds of matters..and I am not even suggesting it is easy to hold your own coins or to manage your own keys and sometimes there can be some benefits in terms of having some exposure to more than just one way of holding bitcoin - careful, I am not referring to shitcoins here, because people will even go as far as going into shitcoins and considering that "diversification" into shitcoins is a good thing merely because other kinds of diversification might work, but does not necessarily mean that we should get into shitcoins, which may well be referred to as di-worsification, as some pundits have already labelled such a strategy... of how much spreading out of kinds of exposure is necessary/helpful rather than worse?  hence the name, di-worsification.

You must really wuv ur lil selfie, Torque.  


 

You will keep citing how correct and wonderful you are, until all of a sudden you will go silent..

 

You still seem to thinking about the whole matter incorrectly.

Of course, MSTR and Saylor have a pretty good sized amount of their networth in bitcoin, but they still made a purposeful play (or several purposeful) plays in terms of how much of their assets (reserve cash) they were going to allocate to bitcoin, and in the beginning they had decided a percentage.. but then increasingly started to increase their percentage and also to use leverage... and it's not clear if the money from this purchase mostly came from excess cashflow (and therefore reserves) or if they were leveraging in some kind of a way by using more debt (which Saylor and MSTR do not seem to have any opposition to using various kinds of debt - and even creative debt instruments).


Saylor has become one of the more openly transparent persons about his (and his company's) plans regarding bitcoin, so there is no need for you to blindly speculate, unless you might be taking from some thing that he has said on the topic, and mostly many of us know (or anyone who has listened to/seen Saylor in an interview), he is planning on hanging onto the bitcoin forever.. and even to keep building his bitcoin holdings, so his actions seem to be largely consistent with his words.

Another thing is that it might be reasonable to believe that he might be exaggerating his plan a little bit because he is not locked into "holding his bitcoin forever," but it also still seems better to at least have some kind of a clue regarding what Saylor is saying rather than just speculating.. so maybe you should go listen to some Saylor talks or research into the matter a wee bit MOAR better, arallmuus.  Saylor does not seem to be secretive in terms of his statements about having ongoing bitcoin stackening goals.

Of course, everyone gets a little bit cocky and smug when their BTC holdings are in profits, yet it seems to me that $35k is not going to be much of a thing for Saylor (it's only in the ballpark of 20% profits), and he is likely expecting that his BTC holdings will end up being in multiple profits in the years to come - and even those kinds of multiple profits does not end up happening in the short-term, BTC likely has good chances of outperforming many (if not all other assets), so bitcoin remains a good bet with upside potential that is not guaranteed even while it really does not matter very much about where bitcoin is at in the short term since bitcoin is a long term investment in which we likely don't need to get really preoccupied regarding the amount of our dollar profits (even though surely it does feel better to be in profits rather than not being in profits).

Well, let's say that you came to bitcoin in 2018 (so 5 years ago)--- and between 2018 and now you were able to accumulate 4.5 BTC for an average price of around $10,000.... so you could have various price points in which you sell those BTC in 2023 (or maybe at some future date), and if you sell all of your BTC, you may well end up struggling to figure out how to get them back.  Whether you are able to buy back your BTC at the price that you sold them might be another question... and whether you are able to invest the value of those sold BTC into something that is equal to or better than BTC is still another question that you will face with levels of uncertainty.