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2961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Constant Downward Pressure Due To Miners? on: December 08, 2014, 09:02:55 PM
Agreed. I have faith that the markets will find an equilibrium, transaction processing has a cost which can be approximated for the network at any point in time, and a diff that sets it, diff can lower or raise to change the cost of securing the network, since it's all variable, human forces will work to strike a balance over the very long time they have to do so Smiley

I'm not sure how the difficulty figures into this.  Difficulty doesn't set the tx fees, miners (at least in theory) do.  It costs ~10%/yr to "keep the network secure" now.  This level of security will continue to cost 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, regardless of Bitcoin price or mining difficulty.  

Tangent:  It's hard to say the network is really secured when the majority of hashrate is controlled by a handful of people (megamines/pool operators).

Difficulty determines the target hashrate to produce blocks at an average of 1 every 10 minutes.  It sets the cost in hashes per second to keep the network running.  If the difficulty goes up, the cost rises, if difficulty goes down, the cost lowers.

No.  ASIC manufacturers and electric companies set the cost of hashes per second.  Not difficulty.  What are you thinking?

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For every given combination of market price tag and transaction volume, there is a corresponding desired hashrate (and therefore difficulty) which keeps the network costs at a rough equilibrium.  If BTC goes up in price-tag, the hashrate and difficulty rise to find a new balance, conversely if price-tag lowers then hashrate and difficulty reduce to find a balance.

The difficulty/target is perhaps the most important metric in many respects.

If you are trolling, cudos, you got me.  If you're trying to make sense, re-read what you have typed and try to reshuffle the words until it makes sense.
ty
2962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 08:55:37 PM


The Bitcoin Guard is here to help!

2963  Economy / Speculation / Re: permabulls not only lost the control over this section-in fact they are extinct on: December 08, 2014, 08:49:45 PM
Regarding paying with Bitcoin, merchant adoption etc., etc, let's look at reality.
Dell is the hobbyhorse that often gets trotted out when merchant adoption is brought up.  Let's check what actually happens & how instantaneous it is:

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Paying with Bitcoin

Provided by Coinbase.
The option to complete your transaction in Bitcoin is provided by Coinbase. Dell does not guarantee and is not responsible for the availability of Coinbase’s services. To complete your transaction via Coinbase, you will be re-directed to Coinbase’s website, where you will see the total cost of your transaction in Bitcoin, based on an exchange rate set by Coinbase. The Bitcoin price for your transaction will remain valid for 10 minutes. If you do not initiate a payment during this time, the Bitcoin exchange rate will be updated and the Bitcoin price for your transaction may change.
...
Bitcoin transactions can’t be changed or canceled.
Due to the nature of the Bitcoin network, once you initiate a Bitcoin transaction you cannot change or cancel it; you may seek a refund pursuant to the refund processes described below.

Transactions verified by Bitcoin network.
Once a Bitcoin transaction is submitted to the Bitcoin network, it may take an hour or longer for the Bitcoin network to fully verify the transaction. A transaction is not complete until it is fully verified. Dell has no control over this timeframe imposed by the Bitcoin network.

Taken from http://www.dell.com/learn/us/en/uscorp1/campaigns/bitcoin-terms-and-conditions
2964  Economy / Speculation / Re: permabulls not only lost the control over this section-in fact they are extinct on: December 08, 2014, 08:37:36 PM
... Bitcoin is the single greatest development in payments since the credit card. There is nothing faster, cheaper, or more secure. ...

I'm tired of hearing the same tripe regurgitated.

-Bitcoin is tremendously slow.  You aren't new to this, I'm sure you know how long six confirms take.  
A CC transaction takes seconds.
So much for "fast."
I don't think you understand how credit cards work. It takes 2-30 days for a credit card to clear, sometimes longer. The retailer receives a promise to pay immediately, but no money. Like checks and the like, identity must be confirmed and that takes at least days. Oh, and because sometimes the identity is fake, you must pay to subsidize the criminals who use the cards also. You don't think that insurance is free do you?

As a consumer, I do not have to wait more than a few seconds to transact via CC.  The rest of your reply has nothing to do with speed--the point being addressed--and thus irrelevant.

Compare apples to apples.  Transactions appear (unconfirmed) almost instantly.  Every time I have made a purchase using bitcoin it goes through virtually instantly - and I can happily go on my way.  Confirmations, OTOH, could take up to an hour on average.  So instant=instant (consumer), 1 hr=/=2-30 days (merchant).

You must have been using a payment processor like OKCoin or Coinbase, that's why.  The "CC have hidden fees & 1 hr=/=2-30 days (merchant)" argument applies in this case.

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-A CC transaction costs the consumer zilch.  I also get to flyer miles as perks.  The argument "the CC fee is already a part of the price" is valid, but opens Bitcoin to an identical one--the miners are compensated for processing transactions with block rewards, currently over 10% BTC market cap per year.
So much for "cheap."

MasterCard did not get rich writing checks, they charge you for using their services. And man are they rich. Where did that money come from? Well the retailer has to pay 3%, and that is passed to you, of course. They also make huge money from interest and a million hidden fees. No thanks. I will control my own money and pay only a fee to the miners. That's fine with me as the price is silly low and they are doing something for me.

Again, as a consumer, I don't care how much credit card companies make--using CC costs me nothing.  Re. "hidden fees":  Kindly review what you are responding to, the point was addressed.

Yes, there is minimal cost to consumer for BTC, vs no noticeable cost for a CC.  However, there are MANY small businesses that do not (want) to take credit cards due to high fees.  

Since you went all-caps on the word "MANY," I feel I should address this first:  Did you know that there are MANY companies, both large and small, that do not accept BTC?
Well, now you know.

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They will either encourage you to pay with cash, or simply not accept it for small transaction amounts.  So, you are left with cash as the only alternative.  Great, if you have it.  But you know what?  I can always access my bitcoin wallet on my smartphone.  And I don't wind up with a heavy pile of coins for change.

If you're doing cash transactions and get a heavy pile of change, I can only assume you're not shopping online.  There are no brick & mortar Bitcoin retailers anywhere near where I live, which sort'a wipes out the convenience of using my smartphone Sad

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Oh, and that 10% "inflation" that you are referring to, is constantly getting smaller.  Funny how the purchasing power of BTC has gone up over time (with few exceptions), while the value of a dollar in my pocket has gone down... and down... and down.

That's what the dollar is meant to do.  Learn basic economics.  To compensate for inflation, salaries also go up even faster.

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-More secure?  How much of Bitcoin's market cap was lost to theft/hacks/scams?  Start with Mt.Gox.
Bitcoin user has absolutely no recourse when his coin magically vanishes--due to his stupidity or maleficence of others.
CC, on the other hand, offers real buyer protection.
So much for "secure."
How much was lost in bank robberies this year? Are dollars safe?
If people are not safe with money, someone will take it. Is that your point? If so I agree.
Credit cards offer insurance, which is paid for by you and the retailer. That is not protection. Hell I could buy insurance for bitcoin.

Regardless of how CCs accomplish security & how much it costs, this security both exists and is superior to that offered by BTC, which is none.  Existent security is what you're attempting to address.
But I'll humor you:
If you buy insurance for Bitcoin, odds are ~95% that you are being ripped off, see:  all the "insured" Pirate@40 passthroughs.
Further, your argument is absurd on its face:  For insurance to be meaningful, there must be a trusted third party--the very thing Bitcoin was created to avoid.

Again, apples to apples.  For bitcoin itself, there were no thefts, hacks or scams.  Some businesses and users in the bitcoin world ripped off people - exactly the same way some businesses using dollars or CCs ripped off users.  CC numbers are ROUTINELY stolen, and money - well, governments are still trying to come up with a way to make it counterfeit-proof.   So the medium is MUCH safer...

Yes, CC #s get stolen, and even when it's clearly your fault, the credit card company reimburses you for your loss.  That's what "security" means.
Arguing that "the technology itself is secure" is meaningless--we're talking about IRL scenarios, not an idealized situation where the user does everything right, is vigilant and well-versed in security procedures, and never makes a mistake.
CC protect you regardless of the human factor involved.

Bitcoin has lost a significant percentage of total coins mined to theft & hacks.  The users also have no recourse if they get ripped off, unless they run to the nanny state they bitch about so often & said nanny state chooses to help the hapless ungrateful goofs.
2965  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17th 3dMACD bar started GREEN! on: December 08, 2014, 08:07:31 PM
Green again.

Can we finally agree that this is meaningless? Cheesy

No when clearly it isn't meaningless.

Though please keep up the incredibly high content free daily post count!

So I guess it means the price's gonna drop, 'coz that's what it's doing Undecided
You have me on ignore, BTW.
2966  Economy / Speculation / Re: 17th 3dMACD bar started GREEN! on: December 08, 2014, 07:51:36 PM
Green again.

Can we finally agree that this is meaningless? Cheesy
2967  Economy / Speculation / Re: FBI coins moved. Conclusion: TO DA MOON!!! on: December 08, 2014, 07:50:36 PM
...And the price has been waaaaayyyy too boring this week.

Dunno.  Moved a bit today, still moving a little it seems...
2968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 07:44:26 PM
...  And seized another 144'000 from Ross's personal laptotp, so they are still disputing whether they are his or SilkRoad's; but both sides agreed to auction them now and continue disputing over the money.

This is just a technicality.  When you're popped for running dope and there's a suitcase of money in your car, arguing the cash was obtained by legit means is pointless.  Even the car, which is in your wife's name and takes your kids to soccer practice, gets auctioned off at a US Marshals auction, because fact Undecided
2969  Economy / Speculation / Re: permabulls not only lost the control over this section-in fact they are extinct on: December 08, 2014, 07:29:58 PM
... Bitcoin is the single greatest development in payments since the credit card. There is nothing faster, cheaper, or more secure. ...

I'm tired of hearing the same tripe regurgitated.

-Bitcoin is tremendously slow.  You aren't new to this, I'm sure you know how long six confirms take.  
A CC transaction takes seconds.
So much for "fast."
I don't think you understand how credit cards work. It takes 2-30 days for a credit card to clear, sometimes longer. The retailer receives a promise to pay immediately, but no money. Like checks and the like, identity must be confirmed and that takes at least days. Oh, and because sometimes the identity is fake, you must pay to subsidize the criminals who use the cards also. You don't think that insurance is free do you?

As a consumer, I do not have to wait more than a few seconds to transact via CC.  The rest of your reply has nothing to do with speed--the point being addressed--and thus irrelevant.

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-A CC transaction costs the consumer zilch.  I also get to flyer miles as perks.  The argument "the CC fee is already a part of the price" is valid, but opens Bitcoin to an identical one--the miners are compensated for processing transactions with block rewards, currently over 10% BTC market cap per year.
So much for "cheap."

MasterCard did not get rich writing checks, they charge you for using their services. And man are they rich. Where did that money come from? Well the retailer has to pay 3%, and that is passed to you, of course. They also make huge money from interest and a million hidden fees. No thanks. I will control my own money and pay only a fee to the miners. That's fine with me as the price is silly low and they are doing something for me.

Again, as a consumer, I don't care how much credit card companies make--using CC costs me nothing.  Re. "hidden fees":  Kindly review what you are responding to, the point was addressed.

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-More secure?  How much of Bitcoin's market cap was lost to theft/hacks/scams?  Start with Mt.Gox.
Bitcoin user has absolutely no recourse when his coin magically vanishes--due to his stupidity or maleficence of others.
CC, on the other hand, offers real buyer protection.
So much for "secure."
How much was lost in bank robberies this year? Are dollars safe?
If people are not safe with money, someone will take it. Is that your point? If so I agree.
Credit cards offer insurance, which is paid for by you and the retailer. That is not protection. Hell I could buy insurance for bitcoin.

Regardless of how CCs accomplish security & how much it costs, this security both exists and is superior to that offered by BTC, which is none.  Existent security is what you're attempting to address.
But I'll humor you:
If you buy insurance for Bitcoin, odds are ~95% that you are being ripped off, see:  all the "insured" Pirate@40 passthroughs.
Further, your argument is absurd on its face:  For insurance to be meaningful, there must be a trusted third party--the very thing Bitcoin was created to avoid.

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I'm on my 3rd. card this year! MasterCard has proven to me that they CAN'T keep my financial information safe. Fortunately, with bitcoin I control my security and I have never lost a Satoshi.

You went through three CC this year?  But you said you use BTC?  
2970  Economy / Speculation / Re: permabulls not only lost the control over this section-in fact they are extinct on: December 08, 2014, 06:40:02 PM
... Bitcoin is the single greatest development in payments since the credit card. There is nothing faster, cheaper, or more secure. ...

I'm tired of hearing the same tripe regurgitated.

-Bitcoin is tremendously slow.  You aren't new to this, I'm sure you know how long six confirms take.  
A CC transaction takes seconds.
So much for "fast."

-A CC transaction costs the consumer zilch.  I also get to flyer miles as perks.  The argument "the CC fee is already a part of the price" is valid, but opens Bitcoin to an identical one--the miners are compensated for processing transactions with block rewards, currently over 10% BTC market cap per year.
So much for "cheap."

-More secure?  How much of Bitcoin's market cap was lost to theft/hacks/scams?  Start with Mt.Gox.
Bitcoin user has absolutely no recourse when his coin magically vanishes--due to his stupidity or maleficence of others.
CC, on the other hand, offers real buyer protection.
So much for "secure."
2971  Economy / Speculation / Re: shouldn't there be a slight surge in price soon due to xmas paper wallet gifts? on: December 08, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
...there will be a rebound from smart people getting in on the dip.

Smart People:  Getting in on the dip since 2014 TM
2972  Economy / Speculation / Re: Constant Downward Pressure Due To Miners? on: December 08, 2014, 06:08:24 PM
Agreed. I have faith that the markets will find an equilibrium, transaction processing has a cost which can be approximated for the network at any point in time, and a diff that sets it, diff can lower or raise to change the cost of securing the network, since it's all variable, human forces will work to strike a balance over the very long time they have to do so Smiley

I'm not sure how the difficulty figures into this.  Difficulty doesn't set the tx fees, miners (at least in theory) do.  It costs ~10%/yr to "keep the network secure" now.  This level of security will continue to cost 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, regardless of Bitcoin price or mining difficulty. 

Tangent:  It's hard to say the network is really secured when the majority of hashrate is controlled by a handful of people (megamines/pool operators).
2973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 05:53:43 PM
^Gotcha.  You're right.
2974  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 05:47:37 PM
I hear ya Jorge, loud and clear

Yeh, that 52k + change does not fit the pattern.

unless 1 lot did not sell, or unless some wise guy has not met payment deadline, then it makes sense...

I thought defaulting just fills the next highest bid?
2975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 05:43:09 PM
... Maybe a brony would.

Blitz is really on to something with this shaming bit.  Here you go, grampa #1 Smiley

This old chestnut again?

I'll say the same as I did 6 months ago or a month ago.

We'll probably reach our old ATH by mid summer, and hit anywhere from $7000 to $12,000 before crashing down to $2000-$2500, possibly before year's end.

We should be above $10,000 for good by this time next year.

Unless something comes along to break Bitcoin before then.
2976  Economy / Speculation / Re: Constant Downward Pressure Due To Miners? on: December 08, 2014, 05:38:22 PM
Currently, Bitcoin's network security is costing over 10% of its market cap, yearly.
To maintain current level of security, 10% of Bitcoin's market cap would have to be spent yearly.*
When tx fees become miner's sole source of revenue, this will translate to tx fees being 10% of each transaction.

If we work on the 10% to secure basis: The average output volume per day is approaching 1,000,000 BTC per day, let's say 350 million per year.

Let's not.  Blockchain.info tells me 219,555 BTC/day, so you're off by a factor of ~5 Sad
But wait, that's not all!  All transactions--including blockchain spam etc. are included here.  Spamming/advertising costs next to nothing, since tx fees are nominal now.  It's safe to assume these would not continue when tx fees become meaningful.
2977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2014, 05:20:38 PM
..
NOT Notporkchop spreads FUD provides information, and I do NOT. ...

FTFY

2978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Constant Downward Pressure Due To Miners? on: December 08, 2014, 05:06:39 PM
In short, every ASIC miner every created was simply to be a money printing machine...

False.  Mining is the service which secures a block chain, proof of work is designed to be expensive, it's the monetary expense which keeps a chain secure.  Eventually fees will cover mining costs, until then currency supply is emitted over time to subsidise mining and distribute supply broadly...

Currently, Bitcoin's network security is costing over 10% of its market cap, yearly.
To maintain current level of security, 10% of Bitcoin's market cap would have to be spent yearly.*
When tx fees become miner's sole source of revenue, this will translate to tx fees being 10% of each transaction.
The most expensive way to do business ever Cheesy

*Starting with the assumption that mining costs approach the price of the coins mined (according to Satoshi).  Bitcoin price going up or down doesn't affect this--if you buy a 1 dollar lock to protect $10, you should buy a $10 lock to protect $100.)
2979  Economy / Speculation / Re: FBI coins moved. Conclusion: TO DA MOON!!! on: December 08, 2014, 04:53:27 PM
...
We have other people who said they bid at or above market value and did not win.

Who?  Link?

Edit: Nvrmnd.  A friend of your uncle's then.
2980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Everything except the price trend is going fantastic on: December 08, 2014, 04:50:25 PM
^ Just in case everyone doesn't know about your problems with reality, your spot-on predictions from last spring:

This old chestnut again?

I'll say the same as I did 6 months ago or a month ago.

We'll probably reach our old ATH by mid summer, and hit anywhere from $7000 to $12,000 before crashing down to $2000-$2500, possibly before year's end.

We should be above $10,000 for good by this time next year.

Unless something comes along to break Bitcoin before then.
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