This. It's hardly an example of how it performs with p2pool is it.....& who is this user BitmainWarranty? I'll wait until I see some solid, hard evidence before making my mind up I think, although I've seen enough complaints about the S4's to pretty much come to a conclusion already..... It's getting hard to find hardware that will work properly with p2pool nowadays, even 2nd hand gear, especially now that Bitmain are holding back on their next S3 batch release in an effort to sell more of their S4 train wrecks - I just hope they get the firmware fixed soon, but it ain't looking promising. In a perfect world, someone will come along with a complete re-write of p2pool soon.........  Yeah, the S4 really is a train wreck. PSUs burning out, boards with "x" all over, firmware that doesn't work, firmware updates that break and require you to remove the SD card. As for hardware, Spondoolies gear still plays well with p2pool - every one of their SPx miners. The S3s do just fine. That's really about it at this point. |
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amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd. I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.
Not really that amazing... cheap power ($0.01-$0.03) still proves to turn a profit even if the price of BTC stays at $285 with 10% jumps. Manufacturers with access to both cheap hardware and cheap power can continue adding gear and still make profit for quite some time yet. |
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There are many home miners with free electricity, they are unbeatable. If they scale up the operation and have large management and electricity overhead, then they can not hold long in a bear market. The most stable situation for bitcoin mining is millions of users mining at home using mostly free electricity, so that the cost is well under control. Large mining farms will be too risky, they have to either find the private investors to sell their coin or sell the hash power through a competitive pricing
Really? Where in the USA can one get free electricity? I might have to move there to start my mining farm!  A lot of people seem to confuse "free" with "somebody else is paying for it."  |
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Why would someone devote all of this time into this is the profits are supposedly so small? Just a hobby? So others can get rich off of the coin. I dont get it.
You're getting into the game too late. If you had been around for the past 3+ years you would understand that people could mine thousands of BTC with their PCs. Of course, people were also paying 10,000 BTC for a couple pizzas, too. Mining has evolved, and continues to do so. Mine to support the network and to be a part of the BTC ecosystem, but don't expect a magic internet money making machine to turn you into Warren Buffet or Bill Gates. |
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is some mining hardware dangerous?
It can be. There were reports of some hardware bursting into flames... shorting out PSUs... overheating and melting components... all kinds of things can go wrong if you don't put together a solid rig and test it prior to shipping to customers. @airwalk666 I suggest you take a look at dogie's hardware manufacturer's guide here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456691 to get started. |
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I think if you are a miner, you won't shut down your gear just because at the moment the BTC price is too low and it doesn't make economical sense. What if tomorrow it shoots up to 600$? then you will regret you didn't mine more.
With cloud services this might be different, but I don't think a single person shouldn't judge its mining profitability based on 24hour price of BTC.
There is a controversial argument on the forums in general:
1. Hold bitcoin because its price will go up, don't use it, just buy it and HOOOOOLD
2. It doesn't make sense to mine because I only make 10$ and my electricity costs 11$ NOW
Am I the only one who doesn't get this?
Regarding cloud services I red a comment at some other site saying
"CEX.io doesn't actually need to have any sort of mining equipment. Since the price of 1 GH/s is much more than it will EVER earn for you, when you buy a GH/s they will simply pay back part of it to you as "mining"."
Made me think....
That last paragraph of yours is exactly what the Ponzi scheme is. I setup a cloud mining service and sell you a 5TH/s contract for $4000 for a year. Assuming BTC is $400 a coin, you either will pay me 10 BTC or I will purchase 10 BTC with the $4000 you send me. Even with 10% difficulty jumps, you are not going to "mine" that 10 BTC. At the end of your year's contract, you'll still be down 0.6 BTC, meaning I've made that profit for myself. Now, I get a whole bunch of people to sign up, offering different levels of contracts for different prices (the smaller the contract, the higher $/GH/s I charge). In this scenario, I have never once setup any actual mining hardware. I'm using the money I'm getting in for these contracts to payout the customers and keeping a percentage of it for myself. As the service provider, I can adjust my pricing as needed, so if BTC rises in cost, I adjust my contract pricing upwards. If it goes down, I can adjust down. As long as I have some BTC and new customers signing up, I can keep on running the scheme. This is why people like myself are constantly asking cloud mining providers for proof of their kit and proof of actual mining. Very very few actually do. So far, I believe Justin from MegaMine has been the only one to come on here and show off his setup. Others come up with excuses as to why they can't. |
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Might want to change the title of the thread to reflect that only the minting of new coins is coming to an end... you certainly want people to continue mining, otherwise how are you going to record the transactions of those coin sales and movement from wallet to wallet? |
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I do not think the difficulty will go down. Based on trends and new miners coming out a lot of the manufacturer's have new machines go on and offline to play with the difficulty. It would not be hard for bitmain to do this. It explains why one day the difficulty is going up 13% then 20% then back to 15%. IT takes some serious hashpower to move the difficulty up a few percent which only manufacturer's or companies have.
Let me clarify that a little bit for you. The bitcoin protocol has no knowledge whatsoever of actual hash rate. All it knows are the timestamps of found blocks and the current difficulty. Spikes in hash rate as shown on graphs like those on bitcoinwisdom.com are made up of not only hardware being added and removed from the network, but also statistical variances. Remember, the entire process of finding a block is nothing more than luck. You try a random nonce, apply a hash and see if it works. If it does, congrats. If not, you try again. A miner with 1GH/s could potentially solve 5 blocks in 5 seconds, which would produce a perceived spike in the overall network hash rate. In short, your last sentence should read, "It takes some serious changes in perceived hash rate to move the difficulty up a few percent..." |
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Proof I'm legit on this thread:  Rock those Block Erupters! Here's a shot of my U2s chugging away on Con's solo pool:  |
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Regarding the increasing of difficulty, you have Genesis Mining that gives you the option to mine in BTC (auto), if they don't just walk away with our money, you have garanteed ROI i think ?
There is no such thing as guaranteed ROI. If a company is promising you that you will make profit, that company is lying to you. Mining in any form, be it with your own hardware, rented rigs, co-located miners or cloud offerings, is an investment, and as such is subject to loss as well as gain. Do some research and make an informed choice. |
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...snip... Again, thank you very much for your detailed answer. And if you have insider knowledge on mining, I would very much like to pick your brain if you don't mind. And if it serves as a disclaimer of sorts, I barely do bitcoin mining; I'm much more interested in the math of it. This is so cool and innovative. My pleasure, and thanks for providing the explanation of how you're factoring variable difficulty. If by "insider knowledge of mining" you mean do I know how mining works, and do I have experience mining, then yes to both. While I haven't been in the game as long as some on these boards, I've spent quite a bit of time educating myself. You're welcome to pick my brain and I'll do my best to answer your questions. |
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How high can the efficiency go?
On my node I'm running around 107% right now with 20 peers (9 incoming) (plus my miners), but last night it hit 117.6% when I had 14 peers ( 6 incoming).
How is the efficiency deterermined / calculated? what are the criteria / factors?
Thanks.
Efficiency is a measure of how your node is doing compared to the rest of the network. It compares your orphans/deads to the network. The lower your ratio of orphans/deads to the network's, the higher your efficiency. If you want to see the code... web.py: global_stale_prop = p2pool_data.get_average_stale_prop(node.tracker, node.best_share_var.value, look behind)
...
efficiency=(1 - (stale_orphan_shares+stale_doa_shares)/shares)/(1 - global_stale_prop) if shares else None
data.py: def get_average_stale_prop(tracker, share_hash, lookbehind):
stales = sum(1 for share in tracker.get_chain(share_hash, lookbehind) if share.share_data['stale_info'] is not None)
return stales/(lookbehind + stales)
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Why are you getting Trust of -6 on your profile? Who gave you that number? How am I going to trust you?
Both CanaryInTheMine and I gave the OP negative trust ratings. That's why the negative rating you see. Do not trust them. I exposed them on the first page of the thread pointing out that their product picture is actually a custom built gaming rig, and their video is ripped off from the guy who built the gaming rig in the first place. I actually think the overall vibe of this device fits Bitcoin mining. It's got the fins and cool green lights on the stand. Since Bitcoin is so mysterious to most folks, most people would just believe this makes sense. Of course it's possible he just got confused and had actually intended to post this on the "Kryptonite Mining" forum. Looks like it would fit well there also.... The "device" is actually a custom-built gaming rig. I exposed this little fact on the first page of the thread. The guy who built the rig goes by G69T and he details out the build process on forums.bit-tech.net. Personally, I think it is one of the nicest looking pieces of kit I've ever seen. The guy is a damn artist. What is the asic chip you're using? That design, although cool looking, doesn't look practical for scale.
Also, if this is for real, $1999 is way too much for 2 TH/s. You have to at least match Asicminer Prisma or Bitmain S4 pricing.
He isn't using any ASIC chip. The rig is a blatant ripoff. Read the first page of the thread where I call him out on it. |
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Omar,
I've read both of your articles and like what you've done. I'm hoping you can help explain the model behind your formulas. For example, whenever you're trying to predict an end-of-life scenario, or answer the question of, "how many BTC will this hardware mine?" how are you accounting for variable shifts in difficulty? Also, when you discuss profitability, how do you model the variance for BTC:fiat?
The problem with every single online calculator and prediction engine is the assumption they inherently make with their calculations. Even your calculator at the bottom of your article does the same. It asks the user to input a value for BTC:USD. All of these models will fail simply because the conversion rate directly impacts the effect of electricity costs, and thus the longevity of the hardware. For example, if you assume $0.10 per kWh and have a miner that uses 1kW, that miner will cost you $2.40 per day to run. Again, this is assuming you have consistent power costs. Some places have varying costs there as well (peak usage fees, summer vs winter, etc). Anyway, let's assume this is a fixed cost. If the difficulty increases 5%, but BTC:USD increases 6%, the net effect on the miner is that even though he's now making 5% less BTC, he's actually making 1% more overall USD, which means his miner will last that much longer.
Cloud mining contracts come in two basic flavors: the fixed rate contract and the variable maintenance-fee contract. The first type is what Justin offers with MegaMine. You pay a fixed rate up front for a hash rate over a pre-determined period of time. Right now, BTC:USD is about 1:400. The 12 month 2TH/s contract is $1800. So, you have a choice: you can purchase 4.5BTC with your cash, or you can purchase a contract. The beauty of this kind of contract is that it becomes nothing more than a bet on difficulty increases. If you believe that difficulty increases will be under x%, purchase the contract. If you think difficulty increases will be greater than that x%, purchase the coins.
The other type of cloud mining contract allows you to purchase some amount of hashing power for a low upfront cost, but charges you an ongoing monthly maintenance cost. I'll use hashnest as an example here. You can purchase 1GH/s for 0.00135BTC. So, to equal the MegaMine contract's 2TH/s would cost you 2.7BTC. At the same conversion of 1:400, that's $1080. So, you saved yourself $720 right out of the gate. The problem is the maintenance fee. As cex.io has proven, those can be changed at will at any time. Thankfully, in the case of cex.io they were nearly halved, so the consumer benefited here. Currently hashnest charges you $0.0032516 per GH/s per day. So, for our 2TH/s, that's $6.5032 a day, or $197.8057 a month.
This contract very quickly exposes the same type of problem I described earlier: BTC:fiat conversions directly impacting the longevity of your miner. Hashnest very cleverly charges you maintenance fees in USD at a fixed rate, but charges you hashing power in BTC. They even explain to you in the ToS that once the fees are equal or greater to your earnings (based upon the BTC:USD rate) for 10 days or more your contract is over. As of right now, fees to earnings is 56.02%. That's right, you're paying 56.02% of your mined BTC in fees on hashnest.
Wow, I've rambled on for a while, so I'll end it by stating that whether your are a home-based miner with your own hardware, someone who co-locates his hardware or an investor in cloud mining, you are facing quite an uphill battle if you expect to generate profit for yourself. Further, the results you obtain from online calculators must be taken with a grain of salt because at best they are semi-educated guesses.
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Shellshock, Aftershock & P2PoolIf you have not heard, a new vulnerability called Shellshock — also called the "Bash Bug" — is affecting both Linux computers and Macs, and it has the potential to let attackers take control of your computer or server. Many P2Pool nodes run on Linux and Mac, to test your node open up a shell and run: env x='() { :;}; echo vulnerable' bash -c "echo this is a test"If you see: vulnerable
this is a test You are vulnerable and should update bash immediately. Linux users should run: sudo apt-get update
sudo apt-get install bash Apple has promised a security fix for Mac users soon. Thanks for the heads up windpath! Once you've installed the patched shell this is what you'll see: env x='() { :;}; echo vulnerable' bash -c "echo this is a test"
bash: warning: x: ignoring function definition attempt
bash: error importing function definition for `x'
this is a test
That's on Ubuntu 14.04LTS fully updated as of the time of writing this post. OSX 10.9.5 Mavericks is still vulnerable: env x='() { :;}; echo vulnerable' bash -c "echo this is a test"
vulnerable
this is a test
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wait until gleb gammow gets a hold of this thread...
You fuckers didn't leave much for me to do, having done most all of it on page one of this thread. Me so sad!  Sorry... I tried to wait for you, I really did! I'm sure you could rip apart the ToS from their site since it's pretty much a direct ripoff of one I know has been posted on the forums previously. At least their website domain is actually registered in China. |
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We will provide pictures and videos from the live units, however we are not willing to give any sample units for free.
Anyone is welcomed to visit our company just be sure announce your visit at least a day earlier.
We expected to be more welcomed here, not attacked with negative trust without any reason to do so. thank you
You would have helped yourselves out if you hadn't opened up by posting pictures of a custom built gaming rig as your miner and linking to youtube videos that are not yours, but that you chopped up and posted as your own claiming it is a preview of your product. As xstr8guy stated, far too many people have come here claiming to have hardware only to disappear with many thousands of coins. |
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Hello
Sorry to hear negative comments already.
This is a quote from our website:
"About us
Our company
Dark Blade Asic is a company based in Jiangsu, China. We create, develop and sell bitcoin mining equipment.
We are buying top-rated designs and we are also creating our own."
The design is not designed by us, but it is bought. Still it is re-modified and the 4 chips are our own.
You post imagery that is of a hand-built gaming rig that somebody spent literally years working on - you can find their thread showing the evolution of the rig over 5 years including the CNC machining, designs, etc here: http://forums.bit-tech.net/showthread.php?t=76374. You post a youtube video that is a ripoff of another one. You post the exact specs of an Antminer S4. You got some 'splainin to do... EDIT: You claim to have your own chips (4 of them at 28nm that provide 2TH/s, meaning each of your chips is a 500GH/s chip). You claim you're shipping in the first week of October? Show us some live units. Surely you've got 1 or 2 hashing by now. Provide video of a real unit hashing on a real pool that anyone can verify (like cgminer submitting shares to Eligius). |
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