Sell in May and Go Away (everything except Bitcoin).
Though, this probably is another great opportunity to sell bitcoin. I think the price we'll be going back under $5 again. |
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OMG, most times S3052 is predicing growth, bitcoin is falling down like a stone  Look at what is happening now, price already at 4,86 and still falling  But I don't want to blame S3052, but fact is that bitcoin prices cannot be predicted. so we are long term bullish? YAY! (did i misunderstand again?) This kind of language raises a big red flag for me. Got out at around $5.15 and I think I'm going to stay out. |
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The answer is obvious enough - (1) Bitcoinica and (2) more mature traders.
Regarding (1), Bitcoinica's dampening effect took some time to set in, and the road here was bumpy as kinks were worked out, but I think, as many people predicted, leveraged trading through bitcoinica has effectively killed the extremely volatile bitcoin of the past; and it's unlikely, as long as something like Bitcoinica is around, it will ever return. Bitcoin has grown up, and the days of "the rocket" are over. I'm sure the price will increase, but I'm also confident it will be over a period of many, many years now. It's doubtful the price will reach and exceed the all-time high for several years. Even still, I think in the next two years we'll see $10 bitcoins again and that's still a fantastic return.
With respect to (2), I think there are more professional and mature traders involved in bitcoin now and I think they're interested in and willing to accept lower profits than the crazy windfalls us early adopters went after. When I started over a year ago I was expecting to and luckily ended up getting returns on my investment of hundreds of percent in a matter of a few weeks. It was truly insane. Now, I'll go after %5 or even less over, say, a few days or weeks and consider myself very lucky if I can manage that. There are more people cashing out as soon as they're the slightest bit profitable. This goes both ways, of course, and I think works in conjunction with (1).
So, there you have it. If you want to make a lot of money fast, you'd probably be better off shorting/buying AAPL than playing with bitcoin.
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pic
Move is up
mmmm .... InverseFisher... Someone thinks like me ..  I wonder how many people caught in this bear trap ...I would imagine we've been picking up a hell of a lot of shorts in this never ending 4.90 -5.10 trading loop. this is why i think the longer we stay at these levels the more explosive the rally will be once we get going. I think the opposite. The longer we stay at these levels the more explosive the panic will be once we get going. Having said that, I don't think any rally or sell-off will be as intense as we've seen in the past. Bitcoinica nipped that in the bud. |
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This chart is going to be fun to watch for during May and June. Please keep it updated.
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I think we're going to see panic selling soon. Maybe even strong enough to push past the famous $3.80 zone.
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i'll wager you 5 btc that we'll test the resistance at $5.50 before we see $4.90 again
I will gladly take this bet up. I bet 5 BTC that 4.9 will be hit before 5.5. Do we have a deal?  wait a min it has to go up 40cent VS go down 20Cent the odds should be 2:1 Shhhhh. I'll take that bet too. Can blitz and I split it between the two of us? |
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a small update soon the triangle will end  It's going to end with the price creeping out of the upper trendline, slowing drifting down, and then breaking through the lower trendline. Just watch. We're not done with the $4s. |
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Solid proof that everyone should sell.  |
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It's even worse than that. Look at the all time chart.
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$5.0 was resistance. Now its support.
It only seems that way, wait a couple of days we'll be back to 4.xx, its gonna hit us hard and sudden as it always does and then the cries will come. There's a wonderful pattern in all this and it works out 99.9% of the time. +1 |
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Ok we go somewhere else now....
Maybe we'll finally test that famous $3.80 area. I've moved my bids further down. |
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it was totally me
...
I know it wasn't you. |
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This rally is definitely on hold for a while.
just like it would definitely be below $5 again when you woke up in the morning? No, hopefully not like that, since I was wrong. |
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This rally is definitely on hold for a while.
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I'm bearish for the short term, bullish for the medium term, and very slightly bullish for the long term in that I think a year from now we'll be in the single digits but higher than we are right now.
Just to clarify, are you currently expecting we'll touch below $5, before heading back up? Yes. Unlikely. 5.10 yes, but not 5 or below. Why should people sell for less than 5.10 now? This is a very good time to hold and see the price go up further. Every time someone says something like this, it seems they're proven wrong. I'm going to mine BTC right now and hold them, but I'm also going to hold onto the USD from when I cashed out at $5.40. I'm not buying unless we get close to $4, but I'm also not selling until we hit more than $6. I said it because of the wall at 5.10, good news from Bitcoinica, SR still having its sale (probably ending today, right?) and Diablo3 running in a beta version. I may be wrong, if so I'll do the same as you. Doesn't mean we will hit 6$ anytime soon though. What does Dioblo3 have to do with bitcoin? |
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Congrats Zhou! Hopefully this news doesn't hurt my short position. |
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I guess the break out through $5.20 up was due to the first leaked news about Bitcoinica becoming registered finance service.
Link? Edit: Nevermind. |
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I'm bearish for the short term, bullish for the medium term, and very slightly bullish for the long term in that I think a year from now we'll be in the single digits but higher than we are right now.
Just to clarify, are you currently expecting we'll touch below $5, before heading back up? Yes. |
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