So, you are the supposed "pro" giving the supposed "tip?"  A bit patronizing, no?..

In fact, I doubt that you know me, my life, my risk profile, my financial circumstances sufficiently in order to be hindsight judging what "should have happened" in a supposed ideal world within your vision of what would have been a best or a better strategy under those particular circumstances.  

Does it make you feel good on a quasi-anonymous forum to spout out some supposed credentials?  And to suggest that your way would have been better or some other abstract way would have been better?    

Why don't you provide some of your details, without doctoring them up in order that you may share in some supposed "constructive feedback?"  

 Actually, better than spouting out some supposed resume, why don't you describe a few paragraphs of some learning experience(s) that you had that had "enlightened" you about the ways of the world and in order to be able to "enlighten" some of us regarding "better" ways?

 I'm waiting.. or otherwise, if you prefer to share some of your personal details via PM, that is fine with me, also.  Send me a PM...

Otherwise, if you do NOT give some context, I question the validity or the integrity of your self-described "pro tip."

Also, your assumption about me losing money is so far unfounded in part b/c I have NOT cashed out yet.. and these kinds of risks are frequently taken into account in strategizing ways to go forward.  You do NOT know whether or NOT or the extent to which some of these risks may have already been considered by me... at the beginning of my investment or during my investment and also there are a lot of "smart" financial people (whether I am one of those or NOT)(or whether you are one of those or not) who, currently, are in the red in terms of the BTC portion of their investment portfolio..  

So to suggest "I told you so".. seems a bit disingenuous in these circumstances.

Yeah... NO matter what the price, there is potential for lot's of buyers... so long as they perceive value in it.

That would be a rare beast that you are describing..... and also, if we went up to $50k within 1 year or some very short time-period, there may be a few people who are affected to sell off some by the quick rise in a short time-line.... something like that would be truly amazing.. and quite difficult to comprehend someone holding 1000 coins becoming that well off that quickly.. even someone holding only 20 coins would all of a sudden be a millionaire... that is a bit difficult to fathom at the moment.... so that unexpectedness could change minds and hearts...

What about before that?  what about last month?  What about in November, December, January, February?

You are playing the ups and downs of BTC, right?   

You are a bear b/c you do NOT really believe in the long-term likelihood of success of BTC?  Or maybe you do NOT believe it to be a good long term investment.. beyond day trading? 

So, for the next 24 hours, maybe your confidence on the BTC downside would be that we would reach the following prices on bitstamp? 

$430  = 90%

$425  = 75%

$420  = 50%

$415  = 35%

$410  = 25%

$405  = 20%


Something like that?  Or do you think about these possibilities differently or maybe you have a longer timeline or more patience for the potential of $405?

I know sometimes, if we break through a certain barrier, then it changes the probabilities concerning the other barriers.. so the formula may be a little more complicated....

For example, if we break $418, then we are pretty likely to reach $405.. so the likelihood for $415, $410 and $405 may be very similar... but they depend upon breaking $418... for example..

In other words, we be headin up, soon... ... maybe one more day of bear territory.. down to $415-ish or maybe $420-ish... before we depart the train station?... ALL ABOARD!!!!!!

Probably Adam would deny such.  I believe it is individuals deleting their own post,and one of the theories is that it could because of tax implications.  But still... we are quasi- anonymous here.. and some forums do NOT allow the ability to delete old posts... maybe after 24 hours or something, should NOT be able to edit or delete them.

I think that deletions should be banned...

Mine is only pure speculation to the extent that I do NOT have any actual real life example.  I described to you incentives that exist to manipulate the BTC market.  The incentive could be financial, political or both, and I suggest that the BTC manipulation that i outline would NOT be so difficult as you are suggesting.   

For example let's say that someone has $100 million that he wants to invest in bitcoin, and BTC price is currently at $600.  If he could drive the BTC price down to $450, then he could buy 220,000 BTC rather than 160,000 BTC with the same capital.  So he may be willing to spend $10 or 20 million in order to drive down the BTC price. 

That is a lot of money for me, but it is NOT a lot of money in the world of finance.  And someone could do a lot of manipulation with $10 or 20 million to lose.. b/c in the end s/ he is not losing but is making a profit.    There are a lot of manipulation scenarios, and I am suggesting that my described scenario is NOT as far fetched as you make it out to be - even though I do NOT have evidence of any particular example of anyone doing such thing as I outline... which could be accomplished for political or financial reasons.

I'm describing my operative theory of an ongoing dynamic.....  which is NOT merely spouting out some random thoughts or disinformation.. as some others may do....

 I cannot prove who the various whales are that are pushing BTC prices downward... and that is part of the advantage of whales being able to do such without disclosure.. if they so desire... . 

I know that there are very big incentives for whales to push BTC prices downward, prices come from exchanges... and also there has been considerable movement of money and BTC off of exchanges after GOX and after SR2. ... which makes it easier to push down prices with less capital.

MY thinking about whale dynamics until I am persuaded otherwise...   Do you have a better theory that makes any sense in real world thinking?  I realize that I am maybe giving you too much of an opening by both acknowledging your response to me and by going further and asking you a question.  Maybe there is an outside chance that you will surprise me with some meaningful response?

DOES NOT appear to me that China is out.  It appears that there remain various avenues to keep their BTC trades going,  so does NOT really seem that currently we have many more reasons for BTC prices to be continuing to fall. 

Are we just experiencing continued sentiments of uncertainty to see how these various restriction implementations play out through April 15 to see if there are any more surprises related to the application and implementation of these various restrictions?

I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat...  whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.

I would put the odds quite a bit greater that we would hit $519 before we would hit $399.  I do NOT really know a lot about lines and such, and just predicting from a sort of amateur feeling.

That makes more sense that your numbers would be more reasonable with phased in reassessments, otherwise, seems like pie in the sky aspirations.

In that post, I only provided my buys for the last two months (February and March). 

In about mid-November 2013, I was involved in a fairly informative discussion about BTC, in which the other person was bragging about his BTC return rates, and suggesting that I may need it as a hedge against the dollar. 

I agreed with him that I was too overly invested in the dollar, and I reminded him that past performance of the BTC asset did NOT guarantee future results.  He sounded a bit naive in his various views of the world including his expectations specifically regarding the direction of BTC; however, his enthusiasm and his various technical knowledge of the subject got me to agree that I would research into the matter.  I believe that he had bought in around $30 or something like that.

Anyhow, he triggered my interest to research into BTC b/c I do NOT like to jump into anything too quickly before I kind of have some ideas about it.... and by the time I was getting more informed the price was skyrocketting.  Accordingly, I began my investment at about $1200.  I wanted to get some skin in the game, but I remained skeptical about putting in too much money at that price point. 

So, currently, my average price point is about $644 per BTC (including various transaction fees).





BTC is NOT my only investment, either.  I have a variety of stock index funds and then I have some quasi-passive income from business (sometimes NOT as passive as I would prefer). 

We may be of a fairly similar philosophy regarding NOT wanting to preoccupy ourselves too much with our investment(s).   Since I got into BTC after a fairly major bull run, that timing has caused me to be a lot more attentive to BTC prices and issues than I would have been if I would have entered at a different time. 

There is a sort of tension and balancing that has existed throughout my investment into BTC, and that is the desire to get some skin in the game, and the desire to attempt to buy at the lowest price (however, I did NOT want to wait around to buy, in the event that BTC prices were to move up to some next level and were not to return to current prices).  Accordingly, I continued to buy with this in mind.  Surely, if I had had a fairly high level of confidence that BTC prices would lower to any specific price point, then I would have waited for that price lowest price point and bought a higher portion of my BTC at that lower price point.





I have NOT really invested into any currencies, and only a few of the alt crypto currencies in very small levels (less than 5% of my total crypto currency portfolio is in alt cryptos)





YES.  I do the same about setting a price point to buy, and maybe it would be better to have a larger spread.  Currently, I am thinking below $430 is my next buy price point; however, maybe I would still feel comfortable to set that buy price point at $420?  I do allow my buy price point to fluctuate somewhat with the passage of time - maybe NOT the greatest strategy in the world, but allows me to accumulate BTC, which is part of my goal (I'm at about 49BTC, currently - that's including the floating value of my alts).

Maybe for accounting purposes... easier to keep track.. ?   I am with you that on the face it would seem better to disguise it.. but maybe it is too much work to attempt such disguising and then to keep track.. and also maybe it is NOT his/her own money?

Aki4Real : 

Hopefully, you ARE ALREADY BUYING ON AN ONGOING BASIS and NOT waiting for some kind of "cheap coinz" break through? b/c in the end, there may NOT be that much difference between buying BTC at $400 or  at $450.. even though of course, each of us would like to buy BTC at the lowest price possible... .YET, in the end,  in BTC land, we do NOT know for sure where the price is gonna go... .even though there are quite a few smug predictions going both wayz.


Here’s my BTC buy  increments over the last two month.

590.70
668.80
595.00
606.16
592.37
569.61
537.20
576.00
545.55
524.00

484.02
462.61
462.99
455.56
408.64

520.00
580.00
678.85
653.00
610.00
623.50
604.08
585.50
550.19
581.93
566.12
517.03

485.92
525.48
482.53
452.70
446.44
476.00
439.82
428.68
418.60


Even though, at the moment, BTC price seems to be pretty decent (and low / cheap ☺ ), I am about tapped out on buying.  Nonetheless, I would like to buy some more, if the price were to dip into the below $430 range.  Of course, if we know for sure that BTC prices are going to dip lower than $430, then I would wait to buy at the lower price. 

It seems to me that nothing is for sure in BTC land.  ☺   Yet I am gambling that in the next couple of years, we will be up.. - hopefully up at least higher than my mutual funds... which I expect to be about 12% higher (6% per year on average) than my investment amount.

I find it very strange when people start saying that China does NOT matter and Mt. Gox does NOT matter and that we want to "decouple" from these.  Surely, that is too black and white thinking, and all of these factors matter. 

Some factors get more weight than other factors in the short-term or in the long term,and we cannot completely "decouple" from various realities.  Surely, bitcoin will move forward and prosper, but also the movement forward will be delayed and hampered by various people or entities that attempt to manipulate it or profit from it or defraud people.  The public impression is also affected by these negative aspects... which will delay us in getting to the train station that will take us to the rocket launch pad.. and in my thinking these many factors matter, and sometimes, these many factors need to be dealt with before we can move to the next level.

Yes, And we met $460 in the same 12 hours, much before your predicted $350 in 12 hours.... who would have thunk?

Probably you would have thunk b/c you were too chicken shit to take a bet on the prospect of your own prediction.

I thought that they were brothers or something.. I thought that Charles Lee had said that Bobby Lee was his brother, no?

EDIT:::::   NEVER MIND>>>> already answered by several others that they are brothers..

Yeah, maybe we need to start thinking in milibits.. at some time soon?  But then people may think BTC is too cheap at 44 cents?

Is your buy in price $700?